The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II

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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1301 » by MrBigShot » Mon Jan 21, 2013 12:19 am

Shem wrote:You mean Brandon Knight had a hot hand. Any player who has that can't be stopped no matter what unless you don't want that guy to beat you and throw double teams at him, which is what Lillard gets every night now. Impressive that a rookie PG is being treated like he's the best player on the Blazers that includes LaMarcus Aldridge on it.


It wasn't just a matter of having the hot hand, Knight outplayed him on both ends of the floor that night. It's pretty clear that Lillard has some improving to do defensively, but If I'm a Blazers fan, I'm not worried in the least bit.

He's outplayed quite a few good to great PGs. We shouldn't forget that he's a rookie, I expect Lillard to continue to get lit up by more experienced PGs, but I don't think it will be a long term problem...he's still learning the game and adjusting to the NBA lifestyle. He has the physical tools in terms of length and above average athleticism to adjust.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1302 » by zzaj » Mon Jan 21, 2013 12:52 am

ComboGuardCity wrote:
Shem wrote:
ComboGuardCity wrote:Jennings: 30/8 45%
Irving: 31/5 54%
Lawson: 24/12 52%
WestbrooK: 18/9 25%
Curry: 22/12 32%

That's a small list considering the Blazers have played 40 games.

ComboGuardCity wrote:He's been inconsistent to say the least over the past 5 games. I also saw a full 48 minutes against the Pistons and he got torched by Brandon Knight.

You mean Brandon Knight had a hot hand. Any player who has that can't be stopped no matter what unless you don't want that guy to beat you and throw double teams at him, which is what Lillard gets every night now. Impressive that a rookie PG is being treated like he's the best player on the Blazers that includes LaMarcus Aldridge on it.

Its the most recent 5 games. Jesus, I know you have a hard on for lillard but any sort of criticism when justified doesn't mean he isn't a good player. He's a below average defensive player at this point. Every analyst has said it and even Lillard himself says he's weak on defense.


It's interesting, because as most of us Blazer fans have seen (at least those that watch every game)...is that Lillard has actually been getting noticeably better defensively--especially in the last 10 games or so.

Word is out on Lillard and scoring opposing PGs are gunning for him. The Blazers have no big man rim protection...and Caleb Canales is the defensive coordinator. You combine these elements with his being a defensively average nba rookie that is required to score (the bench is putrid)...and you get a handful of games where opposing PGs score above their average.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1303 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:21 am

ComboGuardCity wrote:Jennings: 30/8 45%
Irving: 31/5 54%
Lawson: 24/12 52%
WestbrooK: 18/9 25%
Curry: 22/12 32%

He's been inconsistent to say the least over the past 5 games. I also saw a full 48 minutes against the Pistons and he got torched by Brandon Knight.


in other words, Shem was right...you're basing everything off box scores and just lobbing out assumptions that follow from those box scores

on the other hand, we have actually watched the games. That's helpful sometimes in having more accurate evaluations.

Does Lillard get beat sometimes by opposing PG's?...sure, he's a rookie after all. But the PG's who beat Lillard also beat every other PG in the league. The other side of that is that Lillard has been beating them just about as much on the other end of the floor

but another factor is that Terry Stotts has had a substitution pattern for a while that often pulls Lillard about 6 minutes in to the 1st and 3rd quarters. This leaves the other team's PG in against the Blazer 2nd unit. That is how Jennings got a bunch of his points. That is how Irving got a bunch of his points. And by the way, Cleveland wanted no part of trying to make Irving cover Lillard, they put him on Matthews

you keep arguing that Lillard is below average as a defender. and supplise some recent examples

Curry got 22 points on 22 FGA at 32% shooting; Lillard got 37 points on 25 FGA on 60% shooting. Seems like one of those players was worse as a defender

Westbrook got 18 points on 21 FGA for 24% shooting and you think that shows Lillard played bad defense?

by the way, in those 5 examples, 3 of those games were in a back to back-to-back situation

ComboGuardCity wrote:I hate using advanced stats to measure a perimeter player's defensive impact personally.


usually, I have found that around here people tend to hate any type of stats when those stats do not support their bias

Those stats at 82games for opponent numbers may have some flaws, like all stats do, but they do offer some data that reveals some things about individual defense. By an large, those players that are obviously good defenders will also have some real good opponent numbers there. So, if Lillard is performing that well in those comparative numbers, it's probably the case that his defense is better then it seems

does that means he's a good defender?...no, I don't buy that. What I do buy is what I sold in my previous post: that being that no NBA PG is that good at defending other NBA PG's. PG's are by and large simply too good at the dribble that when you factor in hand-check rules and all the pick and roll schemes, PG defenders just generally get torched
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1304 » by willbcocks » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:41 am

Imagine if all of the players from this past draft were on one team. It's almost like they are tailor-made to play with each other:

PG: Lillard
SG: Beal
SF: MKG
PF: Davis
C: Drummond
6th Man: Waiters

That team would be perfectly balanced and dominate the league as soon as next year.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1305 » by kidleader » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:48 am

lillard has bad defense particularly in PnR and transition. Dude is just lazy getting back a lot of times. Most PG's in the league are bad defenders anyways so =/
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1306 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:57 am

willbcocks wrote:Imagine if all of the players from this past draft were on one team. It's almost like they are tailor-made to play with each other:

PG: Lillard
SG: Beal
SF: MKG
PF: Davis
C: Drummond
6th Man: Waiters

That team would be perfectly balanced and dominate the league as soon as next year.


Rookie-Sophmore game should be interesting.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1307 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:01 am

Lillard is not a good defender. However, he is not a terrible defender either. The stats from 82 games show that the premier PG's generally go off against the Blazers bench and with the lack of a rim-protecting big man. Looking at game totals does not tell you how and when a player scored their points. This seems to be a point that some people cannot grasp yet.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1308 » by ComboGuardCity » Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:10 am

Wizenheimer wrote:
ComboGuardCity wrote:Jennings: 30/8 45%
Irving: 31/5 54%
Lawson: 24/12 52%
WestbrooK: 18/9 25%
Curry: 22/12 32%

He's been inconsistent to say the least over the past 5 games. I also saw a full 48 minutes against the Pistons and he got torched by Brandon Knight.


in other words, Shem was right...you're basing everything off box scores and just lobbing out assumptions that follow from those box scores

on the other hand, we have actually watched the games. That's helpful sometimes in having more accurate evaluations.

Does Lillard get beat sometimes by opposing PG's?...sure, he's a rookie after all. But the PG's who beat Lillard also beat every other PG in the league. The other side of that is that Lillard has been beating them just about as much on the other end of the floor

but another factor is that Terry Stotts has had a substitution pattern for a while that often pulls Lillard about 6 minutes in to the 1st and 3rd quarters. This leaves the other team's PG in against the Blazer 2nd unit. That is how Jennings got a bunch of his points. That is how Irving got a bunch of his points. And by the way, Cleveland wanted no part of trying to make Irving cover Lillard, they put him on Matthews

you keep arguing that Lillard is below average as a defender. and supplise some recent examples

Curry got 22 points on 22 FGA at 32% shooting; Lillard got 37 points on 25 FGA on 60% shooting. Seems like one of those players was worse as a defender

Westbrook got 18 points on 21 FGA for 24% shooting and you think that shows Lillard played bad defense?

by the way, in those 5 examples, 3 of those games were in a back to back-to-back situation

ComboGuardCity wrote:I hate using advanced stats to measure a perimeter player's defensive impact personally.


usually, I have found that around here people tend to hate any type of stats when those stats do not support their bias

Those stats at 82games for opponent numbers may have some flaws, like all stats do, but they do offer some data that reveals some things about individual defense. By an large, those players that are obviously good defenders will also have some real good opponent numbers there. So, if Lillard is performing that well in those comparative numbers, it's probably the case that his defense is better then it seems

does that means he's a good defender?...no, I don't buy that. What I do buy is what I sold in my previous post: that being that no NBA PG is that good at defending other NBA PG's. PG's are by and large simply too good at the dribble that when you factor in hand-check rules and all the pick and roll schemes, PG defenders just generally get torched

You can babble all you want, but Lillard himself said he needs to improve on defense.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1309 » by MrBigShot » Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:55 am

Drummond 6/8 FTs so far. FT shooting won't be a problem. I'm very well aware that's a small sample size, but the form and the touch are there. No reason he can't get up as high as 70% from the line.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1310 » by Onioneer » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:01 am

Drummond with 16pts, 7 rebs, a block and a steal in 20 minutes on 5/6 shooting including 6/8 from FT. Also interesting, the pistons' announcers said he's up from 280 to 297 pounds, and still athletic beyond belief.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1311 » by kidleader » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:08 am

MrBigShot wrote:Drummond 6/8 FTs so far. FT shooting won't be a problem. I'm very well aware that's a small sample size, but the form and the touch are there. No reason he can't get up as high as 70% from the line.


[x] shoots 38% on the season
[ ] can somehow get to 70%
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1312 » by MrBigShot » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:27 am

kidleader wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:Drummond 6/8 FTs so far. FT shooting won't be a problem. I'm very well aware that's a small sample size, but the form and the touch are there. No reason he can't get up as high as 70% from the line.


[x] shoots 38% on the season
[ ] can somehow get to 70%


This argument is so ridiculously flawed. By that logic, Derrick Rose should not have been able to improve his midrange/3pt shot despite being a poor 3pt shooter and only a decent mid range shooter in his rookie year.

It's called practice and improvement...nice troll attempt though.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1313 » by Kabookalu » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:36 am

MrBigShot wrote:This argument is so ridiculously flawed. By that logic, Derrick Rose should not have been able to improve his midrange/3pt shot despite being a poor 3pt shooter and only a decent mid range shooter in his rookie year.

It's called practice and improvement...nice troll attempt though.


But there's merit to it. History has not been kind for big men who have started out as terrible free throw shooters. Asik put in a boat load of work into his free throw shooting in the offseason and it's only gotten him to .550%.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1314 » by Goldtop » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:41 am

Blaha mentioned during tonights game that Drummond recently weighed in at 297 lbs.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1315 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:41 am

ComboGuardCity wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
ComboGuardCity wrote:Jennings: 30/8 45%
Irving: 31/5 54%
Lawson: 24/12 52%
WestbrooK: 18/9 25%
Curry: 22/12 32%

He's been inconsistent to say the least over the past 5 games. I also saw a full 48 minutes against the Pistons and he got torched by Brandon Knight.


in other words, Shem was right...you're basing everything off box scores and just lobbing out assumptions that follow from those box scores

on the other hand, we have actually watched the games. That's helpful sometimes in having more accurate evaluations.

Does Lillard get beat sometimes by opposing PG's?...sure, he's a rookie after all. But the PG's who beat Lillard also beat every other PG in the league. The other side of that is that Lillard has been beating them just about as much on the other end of the floor

but another factor is that Terry Stotts has had a substitution pattern for a while that often pulls Lillard about 6 minutes in to the 1st and 3rd quarters. This leaves the other team's PG in against the Blazer 2nd unit. That is how Jennings got a bunch of his points. That is how Irving got a bunch of his points. And by the way, Cleveland wanted no part of trying to make Irving cover Lillard, they put him on Matthews

you keep arguing that Lillard is below average as a defender. and supplise some recent examples

Curry got 22 points on 22 FGA at 32% shooting; Lillard got 37 points on 25 FGA on 60% shooting. Seems like one of those players was worse as a defender

Westbrook got 18 points on 21 FGA for 24% shooting and you think that shows Lillard played bad defense?

by the way, in those 5 examples, 3 of those games were in a back to back-to-back situation

ComboGuardCity wrote:I hate using advanced stats to measure a perimeter player's defensive impact personally.


usually, I have found that around here people tend to hate any type of stats when those stats do not support their bias

Those stats at 82games for opponent numbers may have some flaws, like all stats do, but they do offer some data that reveals some things about individual defense. By an large, those players that are obviously good defenders will also have some real good opponent numbers there. So, if Lillard is performing that well in those comparative numbers, it's probably the case that his defense is better then it seems

does that means he's a good defender?...no, I don't buy that. What I do buy is what I sold in my previous post: that being that no NBA PG is that good at defending other NBA PG's. PG's are by and large simply too good at the dribble that when you factor in hand-check rules and all the pick and roll schemes, PG defenders just generally get torched

You can babble all you want, but Lillard himself said he needs to improve on defense.


LOL...yeah, imagine that...a player that wants to improve. Since when does that mean he's bad at what he wants to improve on? Maybe he's ok but wants to be good
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1316 » by ComboGuardCity » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:44 am

Can someone confirm this that has access to synergy? Apparently it says Lillard is the 12th worst iso defender in the league. That is the epitome of perimeter defense.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1317 » by DetroitPistons » Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:58 am

Choker wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:This argument is so ridiculously flawed. By that logic, Derrick Rose should not have been able to improve his midrange/3pt shot despite being a poor 3pt shooter and only a decent mid range shooter in his rookie year.

It's called practice and improvement...nice troll attempt though.


But there's merit to it. History has not been kind for big men who have started out as terrible free throw shooters. Asik put in a boat load of work into his free throw shooting in the offseason and it's only gotten him to .550%.


Asik also has terrible shooting form. He shoots like Frankenstein.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1318 » by Kilo » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:01 am

Choker wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:This argument is so ridiculously flawed. By that logic, Derrick Rose should not have been able to improve his midrange/3pt shot despite being a poor 3pt shooter and only a decent mid range shooter in his rookie year.

It's called practice and improvement...nice troll attempt though.


But there's merit to it. History has not been kind for big men who have started out as terrible free throw shooters. Asik put in a boat load of work into his free throw shooting in the offseason and it's only gotten him to .550%.


I'd point out that Drummond is 19 years old. Asik what 24-25?
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1319 » by Metalman213 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:15 am

Drummond shot sub 30% from the line in college and 38% this season. Theres no way he becomes a 70% shooter. Its like saying a worse FT shooter than dwight or deandre jordan is suddenly going to make drastic improvements. It doesn't happen. Rose is 1. a guard and 2. still not a good 3 point shooter.
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Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II 

Post#1320 » by Shem » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:15 am

ComboGuardCity wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
ComboGuardCity wrote:Jennings: 30/8 45%
Irving: 31/5 54%
Lawson: 24/12 52%
WestbrooK: 18/9 25%
Curry: 22/12 32%

He's been inconsistent to say the least over the past 5 games. I also saw a full 48 minutes against the Pistons and he got torched by Brandon Knight.


in other words, Shem was right...you're basing everything off box scores and just lobbing out assumptions that follow from those box scores

on the other hand, we have actually watched the games. That's helpful sometimes in having more accurate evaluations.

Does Lillard get beat sometimes by opposing PG's?...sure, he's a rookie after all. But the PG's who beat Lillard also beat every other PG in the league. The other side of that is that Lillard has been beating them just about as much on the other end of the floor

but another factor is that Terry Stotts has had a substitution pattern for a while that often pulls Lillard about 6 minutes in to the 1st and 3rd quarters. This leaves the other team's PG in against the Blazer 2nd unit. That is how Jennings got a bunch of his points. That is how Irving got a bunch of his points. And by the way, Cleveland wanted no part of trying to make Irving cover Lillard, they put him on Matthews

you keep arguing that Lillard is below average as a defender. and supplise some recent examples

Curry got 22 points on 22 FGA at 32% shooting; Lillard got 37 points on 25 FGA on 60% shooting. Seems like one of those players was worse as a defender

Westbrook got 18 points on 21 FGA for 24% shooting and you think that shows Lillard played bad defense?

by the way, in those 5 examples, 3 of those games were in a back to back-to-back situation

ComboGuardCity wrote:I hate using advanced stats to measure a perimeter player's defensive impact personally.


usually, I have found that around here people tend to hate any type of stats when those stats do not support their bias

Those stats at 82games for opponent numbers may have some flaws, like all stats do, but they do offer some data that reveals some things about individual defense. By an large, those players that are obviously good defenders will also have some real good opponent numbers there. So, if Lillard is performing that well in those comparative numbers, it's probably the case that his defense is better then it seems

does that means he's a good defender?...no, I don't buy that. What I do buy is what I sold in my previous post: that being that no NBA PG is that good at defending other NBA PG's. PG's are by and large simply too good at the dribble that when you factor in hand-check rules and all the pick and roll schemes, PG defenders just generally get torched

You can babble all you want, but Lillard himself said he needs to improve on defense.

Things aren't as black and white as you think they are. No team on cue makes substitutions at the exact same time at each position. In the case of the Cleveland and Portland game, Irving and Lillard believe it or not were not always on the court at the same time. So to say that Irving dropped 31 on Lillard isn't a correct statement. The correct statement is Irving dropped 31 on the Blazers. And just so you know that Wiz isn't making anything he said up in case you have your doubts, read this from this game day thread between Cleveland and Portland:


viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1226631&start=120

Wizenheimer wrote:tonight for instance, I though it would have been better to have Price play because at least he could offer some defensive resistance to Irving. Nolan didn't have a prayer of doing that and Irving really got going when Nolan came in halfway thru the 1st Q


But it didn't stop there:

viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1226631&start=135

Wizenheimer wrote:
Epicurus wrote:Ah, the better poison. Not quite so certain about your claim. Smith actually drives and finishes at the rim better. Neither contribute much (anything) however, but Smith has not really shown worthless over many campaigns, as has Price, and thus there is at least a small glimmer of hope that Smith MAY someday be a contributor. No such hope really exist for Price. Now having said this, I now go back to the flip of the coin.


what was needed last night was defense at the point against Irving. And that was no mystery before the game even started

and whatever your opinion on the relative offensive merits between Price and Smith, there is NO doubt at all which player is the better defender. That has been easily seen by observation.

there is even some statistical evidence for it. The Blazers as a team have a defensive rating of 106.9. Price has an individual defensive rating of 107, or just about the same as the team. Smith, on the other hand, has a rating of 112, the worst on the team. Having paid attention to this differential over the years, I can categorically say that a player possessing a rating more then 5 points worse to his team defines the word suck. That's bad, and sometimes bad is really, really bad

by the way, as to who is better on the offensive end:

assists/36: Price 5.0....Smith 5.0
turnovers/36: Price 2.5....Smith 3.8
PER: Price 6.8....Smith 3.0
TS%: Price .396....Smith .368
WinShares/48: Price -0.012....Smith -0.146


it's true, they both stink. And to embellish the metaphor: Overpowering stench. But while Price's stench may induce vomiting, Smith's may cause coma


These statements were written days ago. Meanwhile, guys like you read the box score and just think it's a black and white situation where Lillard guarded Irving the whole time and he dropped all of his points while Lillard guarded him 100% of the time. That wasn't the case. Maybe you should read the game day threads in the Blazer area to get a better idea of what happened in the games since you're not watching them.

Now, that's not to say that Irving didn't make Lillard look foolish as times at times, but hasn't Irving been doing that all year? He's averaging over 23 PPG and he's one of like 9 or 10 players this season (the last time I checked) that has a 20 PPG game average or better this year.
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