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The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II

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Post#1366 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:18 pm by fishnc

Jon1798 wrote:Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......


My first thought is...why would you use Per 36? And then I thought, oh, because it makes your guy look better.
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Post#1367 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:29 pm by Ziggy Stardust

Jon1798 wrote:Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......


After reading this thread, those stats really reaffirm the prospect that Davis was/is. A big, athletic freak like Drummond performs 100% over expectations, but Davis playing ten minutes more and dealing with petty, unforseable injuries puts up similar production over 36.
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Post#1368 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:38 pm by dpnim

Jon1798 wrote:Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......


Shouldn't compare guard metrics to big man metrics. PER is not an end all be all metric. The league is short on quality big men and the abundant in quality PGs. Also, dont underestimate the value of assists, Damian get's 6.6/game that's at the very least 13.2 additional points he creates for his team when on the court. Assuming they are 2pt shots. And can be argued that he is responsible for 31.5 of the teams pts every game (18.3+13.2). Which with the team averaging 97pts/game is atleast about 32.5% of the total points. That's not counting the plays PG's "assisted" on where the receiving player is immediately fouled and goes to the line (those points don't give assists to the PG) or in case of an "And 1".
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Post#1369 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:09 pm by Jon1798

Look, I would hope that anyone that can get all the way to a basketball message board would understand why per 36 is used. Hopefully we can discuss the comparisons this time.

To above, absolutely per is not the end all metrix. I just find it to be the best attempt at assigning a number and ranking to something that can never completely be compared. As is any stat, it is what it is and nothing more.

I think the main thing this shows is that these three are fantastic players. I think Davis suffers from much higher expectations than anyone else. I find some of the things Drummond is doing is almost unprecedented. I am also a little surprised at Lillard's assist numbers. For the time he's on the court, with that supporting cast, he should not have those sort of assist numbers. He's a better player than that and I think he'll prove it.
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Post#1370 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:18 pm by Mikez1919

Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.
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Post#1371 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:20 pm by Wizenheimer

Jon1798 wrote:Look, I would hope that anyone that can get all the way to a basketball message board would understand why per 36 is used. Hopefully we can discuss the comparisons this time.

To above, absolutely per is not the end all metrix. I just find it to be the best attempt at assigning a number and ranking to something that can never completely be compared. As is any stat, it is what it is and nothing more.

I think the main thing this shows is that these three are fantastic players. I think Davis suffers from much higher expectations than anyone else. I find some of the things Drummond is doing is almost unprecedented. I am also a little surprised at Lillard's assist numbers. For the time he's on the court, with that supporting cast, he should not have those sort of assist numbers. He's a better player than that and I think he'll prove it.


there are some factors in those assist numbers. Portland is 25th in 3pt% and 23rd in FG%. They are also about 28th in points in the paint. Portland just doesn't get many easy opportunity or fast break baskets and that's where a lot of PG's fatten-up their assist numbers

another factor is that Batum has been taking over a bigger role in initiating the offense. He's averaging 4.5 assist for the season but in December and January is averaging 5.6 assists.

and finally, opposing teams have made Lillard the focus of their defensive game plan since about 12-15 games into the season. This is no exaggeration. Lillard is aggressively defended for about 3/4 of the court, constantly. He's doubled more times then not, and almost always doubled in a pick-and-roll situation. Last season, Aldridge was the defensive focus, thei season it's Lillard. I can't remember a rookie getting quite so much attention from the other team's game plan. I seriously doubt that either Davis or Drummond are ever subject to that kind of defensive focus and attention. And for sure, neither of the bigs have anything close to the responsibility that Lillard has.

Lillard is putting up his numbers against much higher resistance

and yet, with all of that pressure, Lillard is still best on the Blazers in on-court/off-court net production at +13.1. Drummond is at +4.9, while Davis is -5.4
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Post#1372 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:22 pm by branny

Mikez1919 wrote:Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

Yep just needs to cut down on the fouling
NaturalThunder wrote:OKC killing Serge's MVP candidacy...2-0 without Ibaka on the season.
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Post#1373 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:35 pm by DetroitSho

branny wrote:
Mikez1919 wrote:Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

Yep just needs to cut down on the fouling

Huh? Are you talking about the same Andre Drummond he is?
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Post#1374 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:36 pm by Moose10Fan

2 fouls per 20 mins is pretty good for a 19 year old big man who plays the type of defence Drummond plays.
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Post#1375 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:48 pm by ComboGuardCity

He picked up bad fouls today. I think that's what he's talking about.
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Post#1376 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:49 pm by Goldtop

Mikez1919 wrote:Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.


+ 2 stls
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Post#1377 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:23 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

Part of what Lillard is accomplishing is that Per36 statistics don't have to be used. The other part is that Lillard is a huge focus of the opposing teams defense. Coaches now know they have to account for Damian, they probably spend more time preparing against him than designing their defense to stop Drummond or Davis.

This is not to take away from what Drummond and Davis are doing, especially on defense. Teams obviously spend more resources figuring out how to get past their shot blocking than how to screen Damian. I fully expect them to have a higher ceiling and greater impact than Damian. Davis is kind of obvious, but it's possible that in a few years Portland looks regretfully at passing on Drummond, even if Lillard wins ROY.


So in terms of discussion: No one is saying that Lillard is a better prospect than those two. Well, not many are saying that. But you cannot use that to take away how much Lillard is overachieving, and by every right, he should be in that ROY conversation (if not leading it).
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Post#1378 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:30 am by ComboGuardCity

I love Drummond and Davis is playing well, but yeah, Lillard is ROY.
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Post#1379 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 2:35 am by Blkbrd671

Davis is player with Huge Expectations that he's failing to hold up too(unrealistic expectations)

Drummond is a player far exceeding his low expectations

Hence why Drummond seems like the better player.

Reality both are good/great players
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Post#1380 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:18 am by orangeparka

Davis/Drummond should be an interesting comparison for years to come.
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Post#1381 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:05 am by Jon1798

Wizenheimer wrote:there are some factors in those assist numbers. Portland is 25th in 3pt% and 23rd in FG%. They are also about 28th in points in the paint. Portland just doesn't get many easy opportunity or fast break baskets and that's where a lot of PG's fatten-up their assist numbers

another factor is that Batum has been taking over a bigger role in initiating the offense. He's averaging 4.5 assist for the season but in December and January is averaging 5.6 assists.

and finally, opposing teams have made Lillard the focus of their defensive game plan since about 12-15 games into the season. This is no exaggeration. Lillard is aggressively defended for about 3/4 of the court, constantly. He's doubled more times then not, and almost always doubled in a pick-and-roll situation. Last season, Aldridge was the defensive focus, thei season it's Lillard. I can't remember a rookie getting quite so much attention from the other team's game plan. I seriously doubt that either Davis or Drummond are ever subject to that kind of defensive focus and attention. And for sure, neither of the bigs have anything close to the responsibility that Lillard has.


That's good stuff Wiz, I appreciate the numbers. Obviously it's easy to just see Mathews, Batum, Aldridge and Hickson and think that assists wouldn't be hard to come by.

One of the reasons I bring it up is because Lillard's ability to lead an offense and distribute was so questioned and I just never bought it. The kid has great handles, great speed, and is such a true basketball player. He's mature beyond his years. I think he should be a 9 assist a game type of player. And like I said, I think he will get there. Might take the guys around him to step it up, I'm sure a better bench wouldn't hurt too.

I don't particularly buy into the "teams are game planning him more" argument. As if teams aren't game planning Anthony Davis, etc. They certainly don't focus on Aminu and Robin Lopez. Teams run Davis off the blocks, they sag on the pick and roll, they try to get physical with him. That's the NBA. They find what you do best and they try to take it away from you. Obviously Lillard has still found a way to be productive.

Each player has their own advantages statistically. Davis and Drummond can literally take the basketball and place it in the goal. They are just so physically gifted with height and length. Lillard has the basketball in his hand every play. That's going to be a great advantage with racking up numbers. Comparing a PG from one team vs a big from another team is not ever going to be a true comparison. Which makes it so fun to discuss.
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Post#1382 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:27 am by Mikez1919

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Post#1383 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:00 pm by Goldtop

From Elias: Andre Drummond came off the bench and registered 11 points, 11 rebounds and two blocked shots in Detroit's win over Orlando on Tuesday night. It marked the fourth time that the Pistons' rookie has recorded double-digits in points and rebounds and multiple blocked shots in the same game off the bench this season. The last rookie to do that at least four times in a reserve role in a single season was the Lakers' Vlade Divac in 1989-90 (five).


Vlade did it 5 times in the whole 89-90 season. Drummond has done it 4 times already in half a season.
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Post#1384 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:57 pm by whatchaknow

Goldtop wrote:
From Elias: Andre Drummond came off the bench and registered 11 points, 11 rebounds and two blocked shots in Detroit's win over Orlando on Tuesday night. It marked the fourth time that the Pistons' rookie has recorded double-digits in points and rebounds and multiple blocked shots in the same game off the bench this season. The last rookie to do that at least four times in a reserve role in a single season was the Lakers' Vlade Divac in 1989-90 (five).


Vlade did it 5 times in the whole 89-90 season. Drummond has done it 4 times already in half a season.


Just out of curiosity do piston fans want Drummond to start or do they think he is in a good role right now? Kind of just gradually build his work load?? I love the kids upside and my fantasy team would love for him to play starter minutes. I just see more benefit by putting him the starting lineup and giving him that experience right now so he ha even less adjustments next year. Basically get as many road blocks out of the way now
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Post#1385 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:03 pm by Han Solo

Andre Drummond looks like the best "true" center prospect since Dwight Howard.

For all the naysayers (that are left). If you want proof of what this kid does in a game - look at the game threads of the opposing team when they play Detroit. I'm sure you'll find some comments that will explain Detroit fans excitement. This kid is a beast. He is involved in so many different things on the court. He is a producer. Plain and simple. He also makes your jaw drop at least once every game he plays. I haven't been this excited over a Pistons rookie EVER (and a fan since '81).
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