fallacy wrote:I don't think people understand how ludicrous that is. If you're a Lebron or Melo fan, don't look at their on/off numbers. Seriously, it will just make you feel bad.
While its certainly impressive, its still only 25% of the season. Have you seen some of the other star players in the past 10 years?
Garnett 02: +10.1, +46.6 PS
Garnett 03: +23.6, +10.4 PS
Garnett 04: +20.7, +26.7 PS
Garnett 06: +10.8
Garnett 07: +14.8
Garnett 08: +11.8, +19.8 PS
Garnett 09: +10.7
Garnett 11: +16.1, +22.3
Garnett 12: +10.9, +35.6 PS
Duncan 01: +12.5, +38.8 PS
Duncan 02: +9.4, +23.3 PS
Duncan 03: +14.7, +23.1 PS
Duncan 05: +17.7, -5.2 PS
Duncan 06: +4.2, +13.1 PS
Duncan 07: +14.5, +5.2 PS
Dirk 01: +17.7, -0.7 PS
Dirk 02: +8.1, -20.2 PS
Dirk 03: +20.4, +1.6 PS
Dirk 05: +13.5, -5.2 PS
Dirk 06: +8.2, +6.9 PS
Dirk 07: +12.5, +4.6 PS
Dirk 08: +11.8, +13.1 PS
Dirk 09: +5.8, +15.8 PS
Dirk 10: +9.3, -16.1 PS
Dirk 11: +16.1, +16.8 PS
Dirk 12: +12.8, -9.8 PS
Kobe 02: +8.8, +14.2 PS
Kobe 03: +10.0, +17.3 PS
Kobe 06: +12.6, -17.0 PS
Kobe 08: +7.0, +8.9 PS
Kobe 09: +11.1, +12.4 PS
Shaq 02: +9.9, +22.9 PS
Shaq 03: +12.8, +11.9 PS
Shaq 04: +11.6, +25.4 PS
Wade 06: +15.2, +22.2 PS
Wade 09: +14.2, +13.5 PS
James 06: +10.4, -21.1 PS
James 07: +8.8, +24.2 PS
James 08: +10.9, +24.6 PS
James 09: +21.2, +8.4 PS
James 10: +16.8, +23.2 PS
James 11: +9.0, -14.6 PS
James 12: +14.0, +24.3 PS
Paul 08: +9.0, +11.7 PS
Paul 09: +19.6, +8.2 PS
Paul 11: +13.9, +22.7 PS
Nash 05: +14.9, -0.5 PS
Nash 06: +9.1, +20.4 PS
Nash 07: +11.7, +4.8 PS
Nash 08: +14.6, -7.0
So, couple things to note. First, it needs to be said that you generally see these kinds of On/Off numbers when star players are lifting poor teams, and while they look impressive statistically, they aren't necessarily as impressive as putting up good, but not GREAT On/Off numbers on excellent teams (not saying this applies to the situation we're discussing here, just making a point).
Second, what Durant is doing right now ISN'T entirely unheard of obviously, but well, just look at that list. Those are some impressive seasons to stack up against if he can keep this up.
Lastly, take a look at how dramatic the fluctuation can be from RS to PS. Surely its not because these star players value can change THAT dramatically not only year-to-year, but RS-to-PS. No, its simply because of the sample size in the PS. We see some epic dropoffs (Dirk 03, Dirk 12, Duncan 05, Duncan 07, Kobe 06, James 06, James 09 (!?) James 11, Nash 05, Nash 08, Paul 09), and some epic explosions (Garnett 02, James 07, James 08, Duncan 01, Dirk 09). Its all because of the small samples we're studying in the PS, and TBH, it makes the data largely useless. That's why it'd be wise to be cautious when comparing On/Off numbers for the season ATM. 20 odd games is not going to allow On/Off to tell you what its trying to tell you accurately, there's too much game-to-game variance throwing off the data. It'd be smarter to really start referencing that when we get to the ~75% mark.
Understand that with that said, Durant still doesn't look any less impressive. He's having a monster season, by any measure.
