Race to the MVP pt. III

[JordansBulls]

I don't understand why KD gets so many ft, when he is,basicly, a jump shooter and from the other hand, I don't understand why Lebron averaged almost 10.3 FTA in Cleveland and now he is averaging only 6 ft per game!
Did I miss something?

Well on Cleveland the next closest in FTA was 4. On Miami Wade gets 6 FTA a game and Bosh nearly 5 FTA. On OKC Durant gets 8 FTA and Westbrook 5 FTA.

[Doctor MJ]

However, I disagree with you here. I don't think you're insinuating that LeBron isn't as "portable" but just in case your are, keep these two things in mind:

1. LeBron has played more off-ball basketball his season than in any other season, and production-wise he's in the neighborhood of his ridiculous '09-'10 campaigns. He's is more than capable at shifting his game to adapt to his team.
2. LeBron plays on a team with prime/elite NBA talent, and one of those players shares a similar skillset. He also joined a new team os opposed to having the team built around him. And yet the Heat clearly miss LeBron when he isn't on the floor, both on offense and defense (both from the game tape and the metrics). If that doesn't speak to his portability, I don't know what does.
3. In '12, savvy statisticians have observed that even with Durant's superior off-ball skills, his team offense was not as potent when Westbrook wasn't as assertive and Durant had to assume more offensive responsibilities. Even with great off-ball players, you have to assmble your team properly in order to maximize the talent. Being off-ball isn't necessarily "better" than being on-ball; you have to consider the rest of the roster's needs.

Well, the key thing I see here is the implicit point that LeBron happens to have a teammate with some major redundant skills, and Durant could be in that situation too. Putting aside the fact that LeBron chose this situation for himself, there's the matter that most offensive superstars are the primary on-ball player on the team. Hence a player not as dependent on this role is going to be more portable in his ability to have simple impact in more likely circumstances.

Contrasted with that is the fact that LeBron's ability to do it all means he's the player you want to carry a weaker team as far as possible.

Mind you I'm still not saying Durant's better for contending teams necessarily. I am saying though that this year, for the first time, I'm not really sure who is.

[lightfoot]

KD is an elite scorer who can finish in many ways, but he is primarily a spot-up shooter. His on-ball defense is pretty good, which is no surprise given his amazing combination of length and agility, but his help/team defense is nothing to speak of. He's an opportunistic rebounder and an average passer (though his passing seems to be improving). His role on a championship-caliber team is to score.

LBJ is an elite scorer who can finish in many ways, but his best weapon is to attack the basket. His on-ball defense is very good, and his help/team defense is elite (for evidence, watch his rotations/recoveries, the chaos he causes in the passing lanes, his chase-down blocks, etc.). He's an opportunistic rebounder and an elite passer (double-team him at your peril). His role on a championship-caliber team is to anchor both the offense and the defense.

Watch both players carefully. On offense, KD stands around a lot, waiting for a kick-out on penetration or off an offensive board. When he's active, he's mainly coming off screens from guys like Perkins and Collison who do the dirty work. LBJ, on the other hand, is usually running the offense -- he's the guy that makes life for shooters like KD easier. And on defense, Brooks often "hides" KD by matching him up with a non-threat, whereas LBJ will cover the opponent's best scorer, especially in crunch time.

It should be obvious who deserves the MVP.

[MisterWestside]

Well, the key thing I see here is the implicit point that LeBron happens to have a teammate with some major redundant skills, and Durant could be in that situation too. Putting aside the fact that LeBron chose this situation for himself, there's the matter that most offensive superstars are the primary on-ball player on the team. Hence a player not as dependent on this role is going to be more portable in his ability to have simple impact in more likely circumstances.

Contrasted with that is the fact that LeBron's ability to do it all means he's the player you want to carry a weaker team as far as possible.

Mind you I'm still not saying Durant's better for contending teams necessarily. I am saying though that this year, for the first time, I'm not really sure who is.

Pft, I meant "three" things instead of two things. Can't count

I think that shooting is to Durant as passing/driving and passing is to LeBron. If you we're a coach and instructed LeBron to just take a couple shots from the field, he'd still impact the game just by his passing skills. We saw this a lot during the Olympics; coaches and observers said that even while he was playing alongside the NBA's elite talent LeBron still greatly impacted the game in this manner. Not many players (even most point guards!) are better at setting up others for a score.


I hear what you're saying though. This isn't a clear-cut MVP season for LeBron; in fact I think Durant currently has the edge.

[theokie]

It should be obvious who deserves the MVP.

Durant. Yup.

[fatal9]

Durant has been a bonafide MVP candidate since 2010, and the league's 2nd best player since '10

As someone who generally makes "pro" Durant arguments and feels that a lot of the good things he does go under the radar, I would strongly disagree with this. You are really, really underrating player development. Second best talent yes, but not second best player. He wasn't even a top 2 scorer in 2010 imo. There were many holes in his scoring (and overall) game that he has worked to cover up year after year.

[poopdamoop]

Sure it depends on your roster, but it's pretty hard to imagine the team whose offense wouldn't get considerably better if it had Durant in place of its lead off-ball scorer. He's better at it than everyone else. Put him on a weak team, it's a huge help. Put him on a strong team, he'll still lift the ceiling. There's basically no limit to how good a Durant-led offense can be.

LeBron on the other hand his offensive game is so impressive because he can do everything, which is at its most astonishing when you have other guys with a clear lack of skills. It's easy to imagine scenarios where diminishing returns are apparent because of this, along with the fact that we've actually seen it in Miami. When you add in that quite frankly there are players i"d rather have on ball than LeBron because they are better playmakers, that takes the portability issue further.

How many championship teams have been led by a perimeter player who's primary strength was off-ball scoring? We saw last year in the finals the problems that arise from a Durant-centric offense: If he can't get open, his teammates (mostly Westbrook) are forced to try and create for themselves, which doesn't always work out as well.

I think you're selling LeBron a little short here. Miami is still 3rd in ORTG this year, despite a comically undersized and ill-fitting team around James, and the primary difference between Miami and OKC is that OKC has an amazing 0.287 FT/FGA ratio (the difference between them and the 2nd place team is the same as the difference from the 2nd to the 23rd ranked team). Obviously that has a lot to do with how well Durant draws fouls, but up until this season, that wasn't a significant advantage he held over LeBron.

[CablexDeadpool]

The MVP this year....has to be Chris Paul

Anyone else is just a robbery.

[Doctor MJ]

I think that shooting is to Durant as passing/driving and passing is to LeBron. If you we're a coach and instructed LeBron to just take a couple shots from the field, he'd still impact the game just by his passing skills. We saw this a lot during the Olympics; coaches and observers said that even while he was playing alongside the NBA's elite talent LeBron still greatly impacted the game in this manner. Not many players (even most point guards!) are better at setting up others for a score.

I hear what you're saying though. This isn't a clear-cut MVP season for LeBron; in fact I think Durant currently has the edge.

I think I already said this but:

There isn't anyone who is in Durant's league as the off-ball scorer.

With the on-ball players, not only are most top tier players on-ball, and thus redundancy is a bigger concern, there are actually SUPERIOR playmakers to LeBron. So yes, LeBron did some good things with the Olympics, but so could others.

I consider the ceiling of a LeBron offense in the NBA considerably lower than a Nash offense.
With Durant, the nature of his playing tendency means that while there are limits to what he can do without others, the idea of a "ceiling" is almost silly to even consider.

[MisterWestside]

Durant has been a bonafide MVP candidate since 2010, and the league's 2nd best player since '10

As someone who generally makes "pro" Durant arguments and feels that a lot of the good things he does go under the radar, I would strongly disagree with this. You are really, really underrating player development. Second best talent yes, but not second best player. He wasn't even a top 2 scorer in 2010 imo. There were many holes in his scoring (and overall) game that he has worked to cover up year after year.

Don't see how me saying that he's been the 2nd best player in the league since 2010 implies that I'm understating or not factoring in his development.

Durant has been a force as a scorer since '10, he has simply refined his skills each season. In'10 he was already the league's premier scorer along with LeBron. Of course he added to his arsenal to help him become a more effective performer, but I'm just sticking to the regular season here as it pertains to the MVP award.

[Doctor MJ]

How many championship teams have been led by a perimeter player who's primary strength was off-ball scoring? We saw last year in the finals the problems that arise from a Durant-centric offense: If he can't get open, his teammates (mostly Westbrook) are forced to try and create for themselves, which doesn't always work out as well.

I think you're selling LeBron a little short here. Miami is still 3rd in ORTG this year, despite a comically undersized and ill-fitting team around James, and the primary difference between Miami and OKC is that OKC has an amazing 0.287 FT/FGA ratio (the difference between them and the 2nd place team is the same as the difference from the 2nd to the 23rd ranked team). Obviously that has a lot to do with how well Durant draws fouls, but up until this season, that wasn't a significant advantage he held over LeBron.

Let me put the question slightly differently:

How many championship teams have had a primary scorer who is not a on-ball dominant player? TONS. Doesn't mean that Durant has proven himself to be perfectly without concern. He still has a lot to do but focusing on the fact that those scorers didn't look like Durant misses the point.

Forget about 3rd in ORtg. The team is a 110 ORtg team in an sporting league where 115 ORtg is well established as a gold standard for the RS, and where teams go beyond that in the PS at times because their stars play more minutes. Heck, LeBron's CAVS reached greater heights without anyone anywhere near as good as Wade or Bosh. The entire point of going to Miami was that he felt like he didn't have good enough teammates, and he chose a place with two stars known for their offense.

Any analysis now that says what they are doing is plenty good is forgiving legit issues simply because the team actually won a title. They weren't supposed to win a title, they were supposed to be GOAT level. They were supposed to make it look easy. They were supposed to win not 6, not 7...titles.

Now, I understand the perspective where one says "That was unrealistic. That LeBron didn't understand this says nothing about how good he actually is.", but the fact is it's just not that hard to come up with teams that would dwarf the offensive production of the Heat...and yet at this point it's kind of hard to think about LeBron-based teams that would do it that at all easy to assemble. I call that a "ceiling".

[CablexDeadpool]

I think I already said this but:

There isn't anyone who is in Durant's league as the off-ball scorer.

With the on-ball players, not only are most top tier players on-ball, and thus redundancy is a bigger concern, there are actually SUPERIOR playmakers to LeBron. So yes, LeBron did some good things with the Olympics, but so could others.

I consider the ceiling of a LeBron offense in the NBA considerably lower than a Nash offense.
With Durant, the nature of his playing tendency means that while there are limits to what he can do without others, the idea of a "ceiling" is almost silly to even consider.

There's nobody in the NBA with Lebron's size that is a better playmaker than him, Lebron is a better playmaker than most NBA guards.

I mean, you have Nash, Chris Paul, Rondo...then Lebron...and everyone else. I would have to give dudes like Vasquez or Jrue Holiday or Rubio some years prove themselves but the proven playmakers...offense runners in the league would be Nash, Paul, Rondo then Lebron.

There are very few players in today's league that can play 1 thru 5 and run your offense and not be a complete liability on defense, offense and rebounding. You have the Gasols that are the only guys that could run your offense with size. Marc more so than Pau now. Igoudala...he's Diet Lebron.

But no. Nobody else could've done what Lebron did at the Olympics or what he did for the Cavs or what he does for the Heat...because he does absolutely everything at a very good to an elite level. Rebounding, Scoring, Team Defending, Passing.

[Doctor MJ]

Durant has been a bonafide MVP candidate since 2010, and the league's 2nd best player since '10

As someone who generally makes "pro" Durant arguments and feels that a lot of the good things he does go under the radar, I would strongly disagree with this. You are really, really underrating player development. Second best talent yes, but not second best player. He wasn't even a top 2 scorer in 2010 imo. There were many holes in his scoring (and overall) game that he has worked to cover up year after year.

Don't see how me saying that he's been the 2nd best player in the league since 2010 implies that I'm understating or not factoring in his development.

Durant has been a force as a scorer since '10, he has simply refined his skills each season. In'10 he was already the league's premier scorer along with LeBron. Of course he added to his arsenal to help him become a more effective performer, but I'm just sticking to the regular season here as it pertains to the MVP award.

It does imply it though. The implication might be misleading and turn out to be wrong, but the fact of the matter is that there were plenty of indicators that Durant's lack of all-around game resulted in him at the very least not being clearly ahead of a few other non-LeBron players.

I personally most definitely considered him inferior to Paul, Howard, Wade, and Kobe in that first year you consider him the #2 player for the first time. In '10-11, when I watched the playoffs and saw so much of Dirk & Durant, Dirk seemed the far more savvy player, and that seemed a key reason why his team won the series.

Before this season, when we were doing a Highest Peak project, most didn't even really try to argue for Durant over any of the guys mentioned.

With all of this, I understand someone siding with Durant at the #2 spot earlier. It's just pretty amazing that they'd believe that, believe a major improvement has come from Durant since, and yet not seem totally over the moon about him now. I mean, LeBron's amazing and all, and people have often wrongly underrated him in a few different ways, but I guess I don't think the gap between LeBron and the rest of the league isn't as big as you do.

[MisterWestside]

I think I already said this but:

There isn't anyone who is in Durant's league as the off-ball scorer.

With the on-ball players, not only are most top tier players on-ball, and thus redundancy is a bigger concern, there are actually SUPERIOR playmakers to LeBron. So yes, LeBron did some good things with the Olympics, but so could others.

I consider the ceiling of a LeBron offense in the NBA considerably lower than a Nash offense.
With Durant, the nature of his playing tendency means that while there are limits to what he can do without others, the idea of a "ceiling" is almost silly to even consider.

Your last statement is a bit odd. Either he has a ceiling or he doesn't, and EVERY player will stretch his effectiveness at a certain level. Prime off-ball player or not, when Durant was the one carrying a larger load his team's offense faltered (it's also why the Westbrook criticisms were at times exaggerated; his role is more important than the media/basketball crowd realized).

I also think that you're still underrating LeBron, and I don't know why you're using Nash to knock him down a peg. Nash "lifted" some great teams, but those great teams were also ideal for him with both personnel and coaching philosophy. If these things weren't relevant then he should be able to lift this Lakers team the same way, with its more talented starting roster. But the Lakers don't miss Nash on the court as much as the Suns did, and certainly not like the Heat (with talents like Bosh and the "similar to LeBron in skillset" Wade) miss LeBron when he's not on the court.

[therealbig3]

The Thunder offense is +7.7 right now. No LeBron-led team has ever come close to that.

I'm one of LeBron's biggest supporters, and I absolutely understand the fact that him and Wade are not ideal fits, which is most likely why we haven't seen the type of dynastic offense that you'd expect by pairing two superstar wings in their prime with each other. I also understand that for the last two years, Wade really hasn't played like himself, which is also why the team's offense hasn't been as awesome as expected.

However, I could also argue that Durant doesn't have an ideal fit either, but he masks it so well because of his insane portability, that the Thunder offense is still historic. Many Thunder fans have said that they would rather have a pass-first PG like Deron Williams, even with the atrocious season he's having, than Russell Westbrook, because he'd be much better at getting the ball to Durant.

I don't think Durant paired with Westbrook is as "unideal" as LeBron with Wade, not even close actually, but I have a hard time separating the two as offensive players. It's really just the defense that LeBron brings to the table that gives him the nod at this point.

[bbms]

At 2010 and 2011 there were Wade, Dwight and Dirk clearly better than Durant. In 2010 Kobe was better than him too.

[MisterWestside]

I personally most definitely considered him inferior to Paul, Howard, Wade, and Kobe in that first year you consider him the #2 player for the first time. In '10-11, when I watched the playoffs and saw so much of Dirk & Durant, Dirk seemed the far more savvy player, and that seemed a key reason why his team won the series.

Before this season, when we were doing a Highest Peak project, most didn't even really try to argue for Durant over any of the guys mentioned.

With all of this, I understand someone siding with Durant at the #2 spot earlier. It's just pretty amazing that they'd believe that, believe a major improvement has come from Durant since, and yet not seem totally over the moon about him now. I mean, LeBron's amazing and all, and people have often wrongly underrated him in a few different ways, but I guess I don't think the gap between LeBron and the rest of the league isn't as big as you do.

Again, I'm just sticking to the regular season here and the league's best players with regards to the MVP award. Durant's '10 was stellar. He was "all-around" that season even on defense (he posted some solid metrics on that end: in on-off, advanced box metrics, and counterpart production).

[MisterWestside]

The Thunder offense is +7.7 right now. No LeBron-led team has ever come close to that.

Not a fan of using team offense/defense to show a player's worth on those ends. Its a team game and the other players matter, even when talking about high-usage players.

[bbms]

However, I could also argue that Durant doesn't have an ideal fit either, but he masks it so well because of his insane portability, that the Thunder offense is still historic. Many Thunder fans have said that they would rather have a pass-first PG like Deron Williams, even with the atrocious season he's having, than Russell Westbrook, because he'd be much better at getting the ball to Durant.

I'm one of those, but not because I don't think Westbrook doesn't get the ball to Durant or something like this. Westbrook have kind of a restrict court vision and game understanding. He's very good, he's a coachable guy and is more skilled than people think, but his tunnel vision is cetainly not well-suited for a no-system offense that Brooks applies. The offensive set ups are usually what players figure out by themselves, except for crunch time inbound situations.

Sometimes the Thunder's distribution of plays is not well-balanced. Everybody in OKC loves Westbrook, I love Westbrook, but he's not the guy to have a 30% USG. Durant should be a perennial 22 FGAs per game, and Westbrook and specially Scott Brooks role is to get 22 field goal plays for Durant. Since Westbrook isn't a guy that is creative enough for that, should be Scott Brooks to restrict Thunder's offense and keep Westbrook's game to a ~25% USG.

I don't want Thunder to trade Westbrook for nobody other than LeBron, Dwight or CP3, but I'm sure Durant could look better on other enviroments. Durant would look better on an Adelman's run offense, or a Phil Jackson's run offense...

[SideshowBob]

Let me put the question slightly differently:

How many championship teams have had a primary scorer who is not a on-ball dominant player? TONS. Doesn't mean that Durant has proven himself to be perfectly without concern. He still has a lot to do but focusing on the fact that those scorers didn't look like Durant misses the point.

Forget about 3rd in ORtg. The team is a 110 ORtg team in an sporting league where 115 ORtg is well established as a gold standard for the RS, and where teams go beyond that in the PS at times because their stars play more minutes. Heck, LeBron's CAVS reached greater heights without anyone anywhere near as good as Wade or Bosh. The entire point of going to Miami was that he felt like he didn't have good enough teammates, and he chose a place with two stars known for their offense.

Any analysis now that says what they are doing is plenty good is forgiving legit issues simply because the team actually won a title. They weren't supposed to win a title, they were supposed to be GOAT level. They were supposed to make it look easy. They were supposed to win not 6, not 7...titles.

Now, I understand the perspective where one says "That was unrealistic. That LeBron didn't understand this says nothing about how good he actually is.", but the fact is it's just not that hard to come up with teams that would dwarf the offensive production of the Heat...and yet at this point it's kind of hard to think about LeBron-based teams that would do it that at all easy to assemble. I call that a "ceiling".

But Doc last year, in the postseason at least, they were GOAT level, if we're willing to make adjustments for the league environment rather than just looking at the raw ORTG (which inherently makes sense, if we're trying to compare the quality of individual offenses across seasons). Furthermore they played like a 11 SRS team throughout the playoffs, and if we only include the games played WITH Bosh (injured and healthy) they played like a 13 SRS team.

Overall, for the playoffs, they put up a 109.6 ORTG, which is +5.0 against the league average defense, but they didn't play against league average defenses, they played against an average expected DRTG of 101.2. That 109.6 is +8.4 above expected offensive performance level, and that looks close to GOAT level to me. From there, if we remove the games Bosh missed, its a 112.3 ORTG against an average DRTG of 101.3, which is +11.0.

We could even break it down series by series:

NYK: 113.2 ORTG against 101.0 (#5) expected DRTG (+12.2)
IND: 106.3 ORTG against 103.1 (#9) expected DRTG (+3.2)
BOS: 109.1 ORTG against 98.2 (#1) expected DRTG (+10.9)
OKC: 114.9 ORTG against 103.2 (#10) expected DRTG (+11.7)

Overall: 109.6 ORTG against 101.2 expected DRTG (+8.4)
With Bosh: 112.3 ORTG against 101.3 expected DRTG (+11.0)

So, outside of the Indiana series (Bosh missing, Wade struggling in the first 3 games) they were playing close to a +12 level on JUST offense, and that's considering the fact that all 4 of the teams they faced were top 10 defensively. Against the weakest defensive team they played (OKC) they exploded for a 115 ORTG (115.8 with Lebron on the floor).

Even the Indiana series is a tale of two halves. In the first three games (with Bosh playing only 16 minutes in the first, and Wade struggling from the field in games 1-3) they managed a 93.6 ORTG. Wade gets his knee drained before Game 4 and him and James go off in tandem in the last 3 games and Miami maintains a 119 ORTG in the last 3.

Now, for comparisons sake, let's take a look at some of the best playoff offenses of the 3-point era.

91 Bulls:

NYK: 115.6 ORTG against 107.3 expected DRTG (+8.3)
PHI: 119.1 ORTG against 108.1 expected DRTG (+11.0)
DET: 121.4 ORTG against 104.6 expected DRTG (+16.8)
LAL: 115.9 ORTG against 105.0 expected DRTG (+10.9)

Overall: 117.2 ORTG against 106.2 expected DRTG (+11.9)

87 Lakers:

DEN: 125.1 ORTG against 110.2 expected DRTG (+14.9)
GSW: 121.9 ORTG against 111.2 expected DRTG (+10.7)
SEA: 116.8 ORTG against 110.0 expected DRTG (+6.8)
BOS: 118.0 ORTG against 106.8 expected DRTG (+11.2)

Overall: 119.9 ORTG against expected 109.3 DRTG (+10.6)

86 Celtics

CHI: 121.6 ORTG against expected 112.4 DRTG (+9.2)
ATL: 114.1 ORTG against expected 105.6 DRTG (+9.4)
MIL: 116.0 ORTG against expected 102.7 DRTG (+13.3)
HOU: 112.2 ORTG against expected 107.6 DRTG (+4.6)

Overall: 115.0 ORTG against expected 106.8 DRTG (+8.4)

2010 Suns

POR: 120.1 ORTG against expected 107.1 DRTG (+13.0)
SAS: 116.0 ORTG against expected 104.5 DRTG (+11.5)
LAL: 119.8 ORTG against expected 103.7 DRTG (+16.1)

Overall: 117.8 ORTG against expected 105.2 DRTG (+13.8)

So, Miami last year was in the same realm as some of the best we've seen, and that's with both Wade and Bosh playing below their capabilities for extended stretches (or not playing at all). I'd wager we're going to see something similar (only to an even greater effect) in this year's playoffs, considering the roster improvements they've made on the offensive end, as well as Lebron's personal improvements.

Now sure, the inability to sustain this kind of production in the regular season (or so it seems) can be used to argue against them, but Elgee made points against this reasoning in the peaks project. Championship odds are just not highly affected by regular season performance, so it doesn't seem productive to hold it against Miami that they "only" played like a +6 offensive team in the regular season if they're able to jump up to +10, +11, +12 levels against selectively much tighter defenses in the postseason.