Race to the MVP pt. III

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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#581 » by kingkirk » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:15 pm

jayjamesson wrote:
KingCuban wrote:I don't think anyone can successfully argue that Durant is the better all round player, because he is not, but again, the MVP has never been about that.

If you do everything for your team, you're the most valuable, I guess.


Sure, but you would be wrong in assuming that this is what the MVP is all about, which people often forget.

This gets difficult sometimes...
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#582 » by kamelion4291 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:34 pm

KingCuban wrote:
jayjamesson wrote:
KingCuban wrote:I don't think anyone can successfully argue that Durant is the better all round player, because he is not, but again, the MVP has never been about that.

If you do everything for your team, you're the most valuable, I guess.


Sure, but you would be wrong in assuming that this is what the MVP is all about, which people often forget.

This gets difficult sometimes...


If you do everything for your team, and you're universally regarded as the best player in the NBA, and your team is leading your conference and coming off an NBA championship, you'd have a pretty hard time making a case that they wouldn't be the Most Valuable Player in the NBA.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#583 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:51 pm

MisterWestside wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:If we actually had access to a non-prior APM or RAPM for the year right now, it would be shocking if Durant didn't have a clear lead.


And therein lies the problem with most of the responses that follow in your post. The goal is to predict performance, and +/- presents its own set of problems that get in the way of this (much like with the box score). Non-prior APM was replaced a long time ago for a reason, DocMJ. The same with RAPM.

If you can't recognize these fundamental issues with +/- and why these other metrics exist, then this discussion has reached an impasse. I'll get to a couple of your other points later, though.


Dude, c'mon.

I know exactly why all of these stats exist. I understand the pros and cons of all of them. I understand why Engelmann does what he does, I understand his goals, and I understand that his goals are not the only goals out there.

You, on the other hand, just tried to use a stat that included previous season performance to talk about this year's MVP without acknowledging that the guy you argued against would be underrated by the stat due to the clear improvement that we both agree he's made this year.

I say this as someone who respects your knowledge, and things you have far more to offer than most: Either you don't understand these stats as well as I do, or you're purposefully cherrypicking to try to prove you point...or both.

MisterWestside wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Engelmann prefers to use previous season data as a prior for his RAPM analysis, which means that Durant is starting from a dramatic handicap in Engelmann's '12-13 ratings.


Priors are also better for predictive use, and the use of the box score prior adds information that addresses some of the inherent (and significant) limitations of pure +/-. This actually favors Durant, who has posted impressive box metrics.

Of course, I also know about your beef with xRAPM. That's just something you'll have to figure out for yourself.


The assumption of previous season priors is that players remain the same from year to year. As long as they do so, the use of priors improves reliability. When they fail to do so, the priors reduce validity. We're specifically talking about a player who we both agree has changed significantly from the previous year. Can you see the problem?

RE: box score priors. These aren't a big issue with regards to Durant, but you brought them up relating to Nash who is tremendously underrated by box score metrics. That's the problem. If box score metrics were better then they could be used as an excellent prior...of course if box score metrics were better, why would we even bother with +/- data in the first place?

As I said, I understand what Engelmann's holy grail is. He wants to build one stat that perfectly captures how effectively a player is playing. If that's your goal, why wouldn't you use every tool at your disposal?

But what if that dream is an impossibility? What if one-stat-to-rule-them all is simply not possible with something as complicated as basketball? Well, by mashing everything into a black box, what he's done is create a flawed stat which can't really be used in an informed manner in conjunction with anything else with a great deal of confidence. Whereas, if you keep the the box score and the +/- separate, you've got two orthogonal indicators than an experienced analysis can factor based on their knowledge of how the two tend to work along with a variety of other factors.

Really what we're talking about is a classic issue with the application of AI where the combined usage of the AI with an expert continues to be better than what the AI (or the human) can do on its own.

MisterWestside wrote:
Don't get caught up in the semantics of words borrowed from common language.

As far as I know, I'm the one who popularized the term "lift" here. I can't know I was the first to use it, but I made a conscious choice to use it when no one else was, and I meant it as a way to verbally signify what an idealized on/off would represent.


I read this carefully several times, and I still don't know what you're talking about as it relates to what I posted.

To reiterate: you cannot talk about Durant's ability to "lift" a strong team better than LeBron can, but then also discredit his supporting cast while talking about the "luxury" of players LeBron gets to play alongside with. If that's the case, then Durant is not actually lifting a strong team like LeBron is, just a weak one. And that destroys the point of comparison that is needed for your premise. (Personally, I'd say that the "lift" argument is a bit misguided and erroneous in the first place.)


I don't understand why this is complicated.

If Player A has a weaker supporting cast than Player B, but Player A's team does better than Player B, then Player A has "lifted" his team more than Player B.

We can certainly debate about whether that's what's happening, but in the abstract the idea is basic. The fact that you could come up with different interpretations of what lift might mean, or maybe what you think it should mean, should not make it this hard for you to understand how I'm using the term.

MisterWestside wrote:
I think people have this tendency to see star players like a one man band, and what I'm saying is something akin to, "Yes it's cool that you can play guitar, harmonica, tambourine, drums, and cowbell at the same time, but y'know we really could get someone else to do some of that."


This isn't an absurd example; obviously you're referring to the proper division of labor in basketball for the purpose of running an optimal team. I just think you're using this analogy to describe something that doesn't actually exist (e.g., LeBron "doing too much" on offense with other "capable" talent around him). He's been less involved in his team's offense in '12 than ever before. And no, the talent around him outside of Wade and Bosh isn't all that "capable".


Okay, I don't think that's unreasonable.

MisterWestside wrote:
Well, that's why I talk about "ceiling". When we're talking about the very best of the best, it's out duty to nitpick. Is there ANYthing about this guy's game that could cause team stagnation even if the stagnation only comes when you're talking about already being very good? Well, if there is, we need to understand it.


100% agreed. I would just like you to recognize that you're taking shortcuts to address a complex problem. Notice in our back-and-forth, for example, that you have yet to refer to any other player (or person on the team!) besides LeBron, Wade, Durant, and Westbrook. I previously asked you to name players who you believe are "capable" scorers outside of the Heat's Big 3, and you did not answer. You're screwing over proper analysis when you limit the scope of analysis to four players. The "other" players aren't as important as Lebron, et. al.; but they are absolutely relevant (if they weren't, then any owner or GM could go out into the street and sign any random person from the local gym to the league minimum, put them next to their star, and win titles). This is a team game. And I haven't even talked about coaching yet. (I know your next response: +/- already account for these factors. NOT. PERFECTLY. You still need to pay attention to the fine details and the limitation of the metrics you are using. Please pardon the caps.)

Is analysis hard? Of course it is. But let's not be lazy about it, hmm?


Lazy about it? We're already writing tomes. :lol:

If we were to focus on guys other than the Big 3, what would be the intent? Is it to say that LeBron has a weak supporting cast other than the two Top 10 players he's playing next to? Okay, granted.

I feel like the crux of the point is this:

You say we don't really know anything about LeBron's limitations because the fit in Miami is so terrible.

I say that I still expected better, and that I'm cautious about making assumptions about what ultra-outlier offensive performances LeBron could have given we haven't seen it, and that the issue of talent redundancy that we see in Miami would seem to be something that exists with any team capable of reaching those unheard of levels.

You then say "But you don't really know for sure", and I say "You're right".

MisterWestside wrote:
Re: Durant's better because team is better. Well if Durant's team is better with him ont he floor, and they are worse without him, just taken as an ideal, shouldn't that say something about Durant relative to LeBron?


This is not a clear-cut conclusion to arrive to simply because of the many confounding variables in team basketball, as explained above.


Hence my use of "just taken as an ideal". Clearly you're saying we have to do more than that, and clearly based on the amount of my writing, I am doing more than that, but we're also having issues with fundamental agreement on basic semantics so I have to lay these things down from time to time.

MisterWestside wrote:
However, to me the question of level of absolute goodness is something that should be seen as incredibly difficult to answer even on a philosophical level.


Ditto with this (valid) statement.


Cool.

MisterWestside wrote:
On a season level though, you're largely fooling yourself if you think you can separate luck from the process.


On a lineup level, however? You better amend your statement for that, because it certainly matters.


I'll put it like this:

Let's take an extreme example with two ultra-Shaq's. They are the two best players in the league, but it's impossible to play them at the same time (easy to prevent pass to the interior on offense, and open 3's on the perimeter). They happen to play on the same team, each play 24 minutes, and cost so much money that the supporting talent is weak.

Would you consider them the top 2 MVP candidates in the league?

To me the answer is a clear "No", and the big reason is simply that they exist on a team with poor fit. The fit of the team keeps them from contributing the value they are capable of.

So clearly, unless you disagree, fit HAS to be something that is a factor contributing to actual value and not something to penalize a guy for in an MVP race, and most definitely there's a lot to fit that's beyond a player's control, hence there's luck involved.

MisterWestside wrote:
I'm not saying you can't find ways to improve the Heat offense with some player changes, but what I'm saying here is that it's really straight forward some of the problems on the Thunder. Finding someone who can play point guard better than Westbrook isn't trivial, but there are guys you could pretty much just slot in and make the team better.


I already said before that just slotting in a PG who isn't as shot-happy (this speaks to your dislike of Westbrook's game) and who "allows" Durant to command more of the offense does necessarily achieve this (see '12 team offense data when Durant's offensive role increased). Even this season, concluding that Durant can play in better offenses without a player like Westbrook is hella fallacious with the tiny sample sizes of the minutes played for lineups with Durant/without Westbrook. Meanwhile, those two have played great together on offense (in many more minutes played), so your claims are unfounded.


I don't think this should be this complicated.

Would the team be better if Westbrook was a more capable playmaker? Surely.

Do you think Westbrook is an elite level playmaker?

I mean it's working well with the two of them, but I can't really fathom the idea that if you've got a world-class off-ball scorer you wouldn't love to have the best playmaker you can next to him.

MisterWestside wrote:
With Miami, you can't just slot in a better Wade. Ask 10 different people how to build the ideal team around LeBron, and you might get 10 very different answers, and the reason for that is because it's not really as clear how to build around LeBron.


Er, no. You space the floor with capable shooters and take advantage of the extra attention that the Big 3 generates. James and Wade purposely look to get others involved in the offense first, and when the role players put the ball in the basket they're outrageously efficient. The lineups that have hurt the Heat are ones in which the shooters on the floor don't capitalize, particularly inconsistent players like Battier, Chalmers, Haslem play together with the Big 3. Spoelstra insists on playing those lineups anyway (they play alot of minutes with the Big 3) perhaps because he feels those those players along with Allen are the most reliable role players in a playoff series (and you also saw that in '12), so he hopes they can get out of their slump by the playoffs.


Let's consider Battier here.

This is a guy long considered probably the single greatest role player in the entire league. Does all the little things. Phenomenal defender, and certainly capable of hitting the open trey. I understand he's getting older, and maybe that's your point, but isn't he in theory exactly the type of guy you'd try to slot in next to the Big 3?

Chalmers? Hey, if you're going to have your 2 & 3 be the dictators of the offense, what are you expecting to get at the 1?

Haslem? The Big 3 took paycuts specifically so that he would stay because he seemed the precise type of player they needed.

I feel like you're looking at the things going wrong and saying "If those weren't going wrong, it would all be great", and I'm looking at them and saying "I don't think it's as easy as you think to reliably build better".

MisterWestside wrote:Sorry DocMJ, but I'm still not satisfied with you merely recognizing that they did a good job. That's why I said you were sidestepping: you fail to investigate the implications of their work vis-à-vis the success of the Thunder's offense.


I'm sorry you've lost me a bit here. Could you restate your thesis?

MisterWestside wrote:
I repeat: It didn't happen in Cleveland and we've yet to see any next-level transformation of Miami, so at the very least it's not inevitable.


Here again, you don't even attempt to inquire further into what is taking place behind the surface. It's quite puzzling given your basketball acumen.


Perhaps you're seeing what I consider the limits of my acumen.

You seem to be looking at these contexts and saying "This didn't work because of X, Y, and Z, and I could do better with...".

Whereas I'm saying "People made some reasonable decisions, granted with a few mistakes, they still got nowhere near the level of offense I'm talking about. I'm not willing to say I know how to make it all much better."

This is not to say that I don't do a lot of detailed thinking on the matter, but to me we seem to be disagreeing largely on fundamental issues.

MisterWestside wrote:
Beyond that, there is also just the matter than no matter the RAPM score, it's based on the impact you're having in that context. If you're unable to have similar impact in other contexts, it's not only acceptable but necessary to consider that when holistically judging a player. LeBron's offensive RAPM (or xRAPM) peak comes with a supporting cast of great fit but weak talent that could not produce GOAT levels of offense.


Whoa. This conclusion makes zero sense: firstly because LeBron isn't playing on a team with weak talent in the first place (at least at the top-end) and is still providing lots of impact; and secondly because it's stupid to blame someone for not "producing GOAT levels of offense" with a team. The team ortg is a team metric only; it tells you nothing about the performances of the individuals on the team. But forget LeBron for a second; you're essentially doing the same thing "RINGZ" people do when they look at the team accomplishment (they do it with rings or lack thereof; you do it with team ortg) and then identify the best player on the team as the sole source of the team accomplishment (or lack thereof). It's backwards, irrational, and overlooks the fact that one player does not make up the entire squad.


Dude, you're the one who brought up 2010, not me. Makes no sense for you to do that, and then be shocked when I talk about the context of 2010.

Your quite right that he's still providing a lot of impact. I'm not after all arguing that he shouldn't be in the MVP discussion.

Re: stupid to blame for not producing GOAT team offense. We've had plenty of context around this. You know full well that I'm not refusing to give LeBron an MVP because his team offense isn't GOAT or anything like that. You disagree with me in my tendencies regarding to LeBron's "ceiling", but you've been perfectly willing to talk about it before without resorting to such over-simplistic categorization of what I'm saying. What's up bro?

There is a very clear difference between saying, "X can't win a title because he hasn't won one" and "Offenses always experience diminishing returns at a certain point relating to talent and this causes ceilings in how good they can get. The fact that a player jumped to a team new with far higher offensive talent and their ORtg was worse than the previous team with less talent makes me concerned that this is a player who hits a hard ceiling, in part because this is a player who stands out first and foremost in his ability to seemingly do everything himself."

MisterWestside wrote:
What do you mean he didn't "do it"? He DID lead a GOAT level offense. This isn't up for debate. The fact that he, shockingly, had teammates when he did this is irrelevant.


No, sir. Just as you have been doing all along, you casually overlook one's teammates and assign the entire credit/blame of a team's performance to one person without any regard for context. You DID, after all, go out of your way to remind me that the Suns offense had the biggest turnaround in history in the first season with Nash; you even wrote in such a way as to make it seem as if he was the SOLE reason for the turnaround ("Nash joins Suns as FA; Suns become all-time offense. The end.") I'm just throwing it back at you ("Nash joins Lakers in sign-and-trade; Lakers don't improve all that much on offense. The end."); now you decide to apply context ("But injuries! Kobe! Coaching!"). Don't backpedal DocMJ, you're better than that.


What I'm seeing repeatedly from you here is accusations toward me of being inconsistent in areas where I consider nuance to be crucial to fully understanding the concept. I feel like you're looking for reasons to knock me and win the argument instead of looking to learn.

That probably sounds arrogant. So be it to a certain extent but do keep in mind that you learn not just from people who know more than you but also people who think differently than you. While I'll admit that I'm knocking your thought process at times too, and I won't claim that I'm immune to inconsistency, I am trying on the whole to see all the valid things from your perspective, which is why I keep offering places where it would make sense to say we agree to disagree based on philosophical differences.

MisterWestside wrote:
You want me in every post to put a disclaimer that I don't have access to a supercomputer that give the absolute truth about NBA basketball that no one else has? Well at least you don't ask for anything unreasonable.


Heh. I suppose I should cut you some slack then :) It isn't a simple sport to analyze, after all.


Let me give you props for responding like that here. You took it exactly how I meant it, but reading my words again the tone could have seemed really hostile.

So you get it: It's a drag to constantly be couching your words by saying essentially "None of us really knows anything for sure but...". Over time, responses get more brief, at times less polite, and you can get the impression someone thinks they know everything. I know I don't, and I know everyone else doesn't, so I'm inclined to skip the formalities.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#584 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:34 pm

SideshowBob wrote:Just going to bump this

SideshowBob wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Let me put the question slightly differently:

How many championship teams have had a primary scorer who is not a on-ball dominant player? TONS. Doesn't mean that Durant has proven himself to be perfectly without concern. He still has a lot to do but focusing on the fact that those scorers didn't look like Durant misses the point.

Forget about 3rd in ORtg. The team is a 110 ORtg team in an sporting league where 115 ORtg is well established as a gold standard for the RS, and where teams go beyond that in the PS at times because their stars play more minutes. Heck, LeBron's CAVS reached greater heights without anyone anywhere near as good as Wade or Bosh. The entire point of going to Miami was that he felt like he didn't have good enough teammates, and he chose a place with two stars known for their offense.

Any analysis now that says what they are doing is plenty good is forgiving legit issues simply because the team actually won a title. They weren't supposed to win a title, they were supposed to be GOAT level. They were supposed to make it look easy. They were supposed to win not 6, not 7...titles.

Now, I understand the perspective where one says "That was unrealistic. That LeBron didn't understand this says nothing about how good he actually is.", but the fact is it's just not that hard to come up with teams that would dwarf the offensive production of the Heat...and yet at this point it's kind of hard to think about LeBron-based teams that would do it that at all easy to assemble. I call that a "ceiling".


But Doc last year, in the postseason at least, they were GOAT level, if we're willing to make adjustments for the league environment rather than just looking at the raw ORTG (which inherently makes sense, if we're trying to compare the quality of individual offenses across seasons). Furthermore they played like a 11 SRS team throughout the playoffs, and if we only include the games played WITH Bosh (injured and healthy) they played like a 13 SRS team.

Overall, for the playoffs, they put up a 109.6 ORTG, which is +5.0 against the league average defense, but they didn't play against league average defenses, they played against an average expected DRTG of 101.2. That 109.6 is +8.4 above expected offensive performance level, and that looks close to GOAT level to me. From there, if we remove the games Bosh missed, its a 112.3 ORTG against an average DRTG of 101.3, which is +11.0.

We could even break it down series by series:

NYK: 113.2 ORTG against 101.0 (#5) expected DRTG (+12.2)
IND: 106.3 ORTG against 103.1 (#9) expected DRTG (+3.2)
BOS: 109.1 ORTG against 98.2 (#1) expected DRTG (+10.9)
OKC: 114.9 ORTG against 103.2 (#10) expected DRTG (+11.7)

Overall: 109.6 ORTG against 101.2 expected DRTG (+8.4)
With Bosh: 112.3 ORTG against 101.3 expected DRTG (+11.0)

So, outside of the Indiana series (Bosh missing, Wade struggling in the first 3 games) they were playing close to a +12 level on JUST offense, and that's considering the fact that all 4 of the teams they faced were top 10 defensively. Against the weakest defensive team they played (OKC) they exploded for a 115 ORTG (115.8 with Lebron on the floor).

Even the Indiana series is a tale of two halves. In the first three games (with Bosh playing only 16 minutes in the first, and Wade struggling from the field in games 1-3) they managed a 93.6 ORTG. Wade gets his knee drained before Game 4 and him and James go off in tandem in the last 3 games and Miami maintains a 119 ORTG in the last 3.

Now, for comparisons sake, let's take a look at some of the best playoff offenses of the 3-point era.

91 Bulls:

NYK: 115.6 ORTG against 107.3 expected DRTG (+8.3)
PHI: 119.1 ORTG against 108.1 expected DRTG (+11.0)
DET: 121.4 ORTG against 104.6 expected DRTG (+16.8)
LAL: 115.9 ORTG against 105.0 expected DRTG (+10.9)

Overall: 117.2 ORTG against 106.2 expected DRTG (+11.9)

87 Lakers:

DEN: 125.1 ORTG against 110.2 expected DRTG (+14.9)
GSW: 121.9 ORTG against 111.2 expected DRTG (+10.7)
SEA: 116.8 ORTG against 110.0 expected DRTG (+6.8)
BOS: 118.0 ORTG against 106.8 expected DRTG (+11.2)

Overall: 119.9 ORTG against expected 109.3 DRTG (+10.6)

86 Celtics

CHI: 121.6 ORTG against expected 112.4 DRTG (+9.2)
ATL: 114.1 ORTG against expected 105.6 DRTG (+9.4)
MIL: 116.0 ORTG against expected 102.7 DRTG (+13.3)
HOU: 112.2 ORTG against expected 107.6 DRTG (+4.6)

Overall: 115.0 ORTG against expected 106.8 DRTG (+8.4)

2010 Suns

POR: 120.1 ORTG against expected 107.1 DRTG (+13.0)
SAS: 116.0 ORTG against expected 104.5 DRTG (+11.5)
LAL: 119.8 ORTG against expected 103.7 DRTG (+16.1)

Overall: 117.8 ORTG against expected 105.2 DRTG (+13.8)

So, Miami last year was in the same realm as some of the best we've seen, and that's with both Wade and Bosh playing below their capabilities for extended stretches (or not playing at all). I'd wager we're going to see something similar (only to an even greater effect) in this year's playoffs, considering the roster improvements they've made on the offensive end, as well as Lebron's personal improvements.

Now sure, the inability to sustain this kind of production in the regular season (or so it seems) can be used to argue against them, but Elgee made points against this reasoning in the peaks project. Championship odds are just not highly affected by regular season performance, so it doesn't seem productive to hold it against Miami that they "only" played like a +6 offensive team in the regular season if they're able to jump up to +10, +11, +12 levels against selectively much tighter defenses in the postseason.


Sorry I must have missed this before. This is a great, and helpful, post.

All of these details are awesome to see, but I think you can imagine why I'd tread a little cautiously here. The clearest thing to come to mind is the fact that the more you drill down into the variations due to injury, the more you reduce the sample size.

Secondly there is the issue that last year was not a normal year by any stretch of the imagination. It's common practice to judge teams relative to their peers within the same season based on the idea that things change from year to year, but I've yet to see anyone give a good reason why we should give team offenses post-lockout a "bonus" compared to the offenses before the lockout. I do understand that they played against particularly good defenses, but in the end you're still talking about reaching GOAT levels of offensive production based on an offensive rating of under 110. I'm wary of doing that.

Third, you left out the '04-05 Suns whose playoff relative ORtg was +16.9, more than double what these Heat did. If we're going to use a small sample size to validate GOAT abilities, and we're going to lend excuses based on offense becoming tougher after the lockout for reasons other than offenses just being rusty, you'd think we'd at least expect the team's relative rating to really, really stand out. It's a good rating, but it's by no means an outlier. It's not all that uncommon to have multiple teams at the +8 level in a given playoff year, and you won't find them typically being championed as evidence of GOAT level offense.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#585 » by SideshowBob » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:07 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Sorry I must have missed this before. This is a great, and helpful, post.


No need for apologies Doc :)

All of these details are awesome to see, but I think you can imagine why I'd tread a little cautiously here. The clearest thing to come to mind is the fact that the more you drill down into the variations due to injury, the more you reduce the sample size.


Indeed. As I did not acknowledge this fact in the post itself I'll do so now. Sample size (particularly when breaking it down series by series and factoring in Bosh's injury) is an issue and I'm certainly wary of that. Can't argue there

Secondly there is the issue that last year was not a normal year by any stretch of the imagination. It's common practice to judge teams relative to their peers within the same season based on the idea that things change from year to year, but I've yet to see anyone give a good reason why we should give team offenses post-lockout a "bonus" compared to the offenses before the lockout. I do understand that they played against particularly good defenses, but in the end you're still talking about reaching GOAT levels of offensive production based on an offensive rating of under 110. I'm wary of doing that.


Can't argue there either. That factor was certainly going through my head when posting that. Elgee's post regarding team performance in the 1st vs. 2nd half of the lockout season (99 and 12) came to mind. That's why I'm certainly willing to wait for this year's postseason to see how they perform relative to last year. If Miami has indeed broken through, we should see them be able to approach those Nash-esque +15 levels, in which case, let's say the stock of what they did in 2012 goes up. If not, then it's going to be hard to argue that Miami was even a true +8 offense. Understand that I did not mean to sound like I was coming to definitive conclusions here, the nature of what we're discussing here just lends to there being a level of uncertainty.

Third, you left out the '04-05 Suns whose playoff relative ORtg was +16.9, more than double what these Heat did. If we're going to use a small sample size to validate GOAT abilities, and we're going to lend excuses based on offense becoming tougher after the lockout for reasons other than offenses just being rusty, you'd think we'd at least expect the team's relative rating to really, really stand out. It's a good rating, but it's by no means an outlier. It's not all that uncommon to have multiple teams at the +8 level in a given playoff year, and you won't find them typically being championed as evidence of GOAT level offense.


Admittedly I got to the 05 Suns after making that post. It's hard to deny that Nash has set the standard for team offense so high that its getting to a point where I'm considering separating him, in my mind, from the results we've seen from the other offensive greats. Even the year I used in my examples, 2010, was still a degree ahead of the others I posted, in a year where 35 year old Nash was arguably quite a few years past his peak.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#586 » by arifgokcen » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:08 pm

GreenHat wrote:
Tien wrote:
imchillin wrote:Very simple for me

This is the Most Valuable Player to his team

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This is a great scorer who helps his team win

Image


That's what I've been saying the whole season. Asked every single night to do everything for his team at an elite level, and that's what this award is all about.


That's not even taking into account defense.

If a point guard is killing the Heat, Lebron has been switched on to them. If wing is killing the Heat Lebron has been switched on to them. If a pf has been killing the Heat Lebron has been switched on to them.


No player ever has had to fill as many roles as Lebron does currently on both sides of the ball.


What is more sad is when a Center kills them lebron has been switched on them too.I mean how rare is that.

You only use one player to lock up 5 positions.I dont remember the last time that happened.Probably rodman was the last guy to have been switched on to centers(not to just defend them but lock them up and then point guards
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#587 » by Black Feet » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:19 pm

There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#588 » by arifgokcen » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:44 pm

Black Feet wrote:There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.

Dude i dont think you read what i wrote.Lebron has been switched on them not to just defend them but lock them up.Earl clark out of neccessity(because of horrible defense of nash)defended small players with not very much success i might add.You saw what lebron did to him right.

Lebron has totally locked up kobe,rose,al jefferson,pau gasol and many others.(dont forget chandler couldnt defend gasol in olympics so coach K put lebron on him and he didnt even made a single bucket while being defended by lebron)

You see some of the names gasol one of the most talented offensive bigman.Rose possibly the quickest guard.Kobe best shooting guard right now and top 10 player torched many and started to torch wade down the stretch last game and then lebron totally locked him up
Al Jefferson according to realgm best low post offense.Last year arguable the most talented scorer carmelo anthony against lebron shot only 40% against other defenders shot 55%.(source espn miami article)
He only had trouble with durant and even durant had problems against lebron he averages 6TO per game while being defended by lebron(source espn article).He still gets his averages.

Tell me more impressive defender.He is truly something special on the defensive end
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#589 » by PCProductions » Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:46 pm

Black Feet wrote:There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.


Damn, dude. First Team, all-Bron-hater over here.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#590 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:01 am

Black Feet wrote:There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.


Oh that's right, it's LeBron whose known for the bandwagon fans. :wink:
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#591 » by Joao Saraiva » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:05 am

It is a two man race. I'm sorry for Chris Paul but the gap between him and LeBron or Durant is just huge.

LeBron is still the better player so Durant needs a better record by 3 or 4 games at least.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#592 » by Black Feet » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:05 am

arifgokcen wrote:
Black Feet wrote:There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.

Dude i dont think you read what i wrote.Lebron has been switched on them not to just defend them but lock them up.Earl clark out of neccessity(because of horrible defense of nash)defended small players with not very much success i might add.You saw what lebron did to him right.

Lebron has totally locked up kobe,rose,al jefferson,pau gasol and many others.(dont forget chandler couldnt defend gasol in olympics so coach K put lebron on him and he didnt even made a single bucket while being defended by lebron)

You see some of the names gasol one of the most talented offensive bigman.Rose possibly the quickest guard.Kobe best shooting guard right now and top 10 player torched many and started to torch wade down the stretch last game and then lebron totally locked him up
Al Jefferson according to realgm best low post offense.Last year arguable the most talented scorer carmelo anthony against lebron shot only 40% against other defenders shot 55%.(source espn miami article)
He only had trouble with durant and even durant had problems against lebron he averages 6TO per game while being defended by lebron(source espn article).He still gets his averages.

Tell me more impressive defender.He is truly something special on the defensive end

I can't have a reasonable conversation with you Lebron fans, lets break down all the players you mentioned.....

Kobe's shot has been off these past couple of games, he shot even worse against Toronto so I guess Derozan locked him up as well right?

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

Pau was destroying Lebron in the Olympics so I don't know why you feel the need to make things up

Rose was only guarded by Lebron during the 4th and the main reason they stopped him was because of team defense and the fact he his jumper wasn't falling same thing Kobe does to Rondo

Tell you a more impressive defender? Thabo is clearly better so is Allen so is AI so is Deng when healthy there are more than a few wing defenders that are better.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#593 » by Black Feet » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:07 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Black Feet wrote:There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.


Oh that's right, it's LeBron whose known for the bandwagon fans. :wink:

He definitely has a bunch of them, look at all the heat fans that signed up to this forum in the summer of 2011.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#594 » by fatal9 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:08 am

Even though no one outside of the top 3 has a shot to win MVP, Steph Curry has to be considered 4th at this point.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#595 » by Heat_Fan_87 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:10 am

lebron
durant

durant
lebron


one of them will win
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#596 » by Black Feet » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:12 am

fatal9 wrote:Even though no one outside of the top 3 has a shot to win MVP, Steph Curry has to be considered 4th at this point.

I don't see a case for Curry over Duncan
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#597 » by ShowTimeERA » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:14 am

Joao Saraiva wrote:It is a two man race. I'm sorry for Chris Paul but the gap between him and LeBron or Durant is just huge.

LeBron is still the better player so Durant needs a better record by 3 or 4 games at least.


Wait so Durant gets penalized for havin to play in the brutal western conference whereas Lebron benefits from playing out east along with two other top 15 players. Best player on team with best record wins it seeing as Lebron and Durant have played neck and neck thus far.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#598 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:23 am

Black Feet wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Black Feet wrote:There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.


Oh that's right, it's LeBron whose known for the bandwagon fans. :wink:


He definitely has a bunch of them, look at all the heat fans that signed up to this forum in the summer of 2011.


Sure he does, but there's one other guy whose known for this quite a bit more. If you aren't aware of this, that's rather amusing.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#599 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:24 am

fatal9 wrote:Even though no one outside of the top 3 has a shot to win MVP, Steph Curry has to be considered 4th at this point.


Wow. I'd love to hear you expound on that.
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Re: Race to the MVP pt. III 

Post#600 » by SideshowBob » Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:26 am

Yeah I saw you mention being real high on Curry this year on the PC board fatal, and I was hoping you could go into a bit more detail.
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