Race to the MVP pt. III

[Black Feet]

He definitely has a bunch of them, look at all the heat fans that signed up to this forum in the summer of 2011.

Sure he does, but there's one other guy whose known for this quite a bit more. If you aren't aware of this, that's rather amusing.

What I find amusing is that we are talking about Lebron yet you want to discuss who has more bandwagon fans.

[Tien]

I can't have a reasonable conversation with you Lebron fans, lets break down all the players you mentioned.....

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/05/0 ... ding-melo/

Shot 29%, 12/41 when guarded by LeBron in round 1 of playoffs.

Elite defender when it counts. His defense is actually underrated.

Your response to this post should be:

Thank you Tien, I don't actually watch any basketball and I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[Black Feet]

I can't have a reasonable conversation with you Lebron fans, lets break down all the players you mentioned.....

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/05/0 ... ding-melo/

Shot 29%, 12/41 when guarded by LeBron in round 1 of playoffs.

Elite defender when it counts. His defense is actually underrated.

Your response to this post should be:

Thank you Tien, I don't actually watch any basketball and I have no idea what I'm talking about.

Still doesn't change the fact that Melo has torched him multiple times. Elite defender when it counts? What happened against Dallas in the finals? I guess that didn't count right? I guess Marion is GOAT defender because he made Lebrom have one of the biggest drop offs in the history of the NBA.

[MisterWestside]

Just replied to a couple of your posts, DocMJ. PM me if you wish, however; currently busy and can't respond to every post in detail here.

I know exactly why all of these stats exist. I understand the pros and cons of all of them. I understand why Engelmann does what he does, I understand his goals, and I understand that his goals are not the only goals out there.

You, on the other hand, just tried to use a stat that included previous season performance to talk about this year's MVP without acknowledging that the guy you argued against would be underrated by the stat due to the clear improvement that we both agree he's made this year.

I say this as someone who respects your knowledge, and things you have far more to offer than most: Either you don't understand these stats as well as I do, or you're purposefully cherrypicking to try to prove you point...or both.

Lets make this crystal-clear before I proceed: throughout his exchange (or elsewhere, for that matter), I have not considered you to be an idiot.

Now, with regards to the priors: you're right, the introduction of the priors muddies the validity of the metric. If I JUST want to see what the player in quesiton has done, then yes; non-prior data is more useful and I'll concede your point. But in actuality, stats that are great at telling you what happened don't exactly have any significant, practical purpose. (Per Alex's from Sports Skeptic great rundown on the various metrics available for public consumption, RAPM isn't even the most useful metric here). It's far better for a model to be able to predict things instead. We're halfway through the season, and Durant's "clear improvement" in 35 games or so is dwarfed by his track record from '10-'12. I cannot simply assume his much smaller sample size from this season is the new "norm". I want to know what he'll do going forward, and therefore I want those priors.

We're specifically talking about a player who we both agree has changed significantly from the previous year.

Can't agree with that. His production is certainly superior (so far) but in essence his role hasn't changed significantly; he's simply refined the facets of his game at the SF position.

RE: box score priors. These aren't a big issue with regards to Durant, but you brought them up relating to Nash who is tremendously underrated by box score metrics. That's the problem. If box score metrics were better then they could be used as an excellent prior...of course if box score metrics were better, why would we even bother with +/- data in the first place?

Since the goal is to make better predictions using this single stat (xRAPM), it's better to use the box score and +/- together. People do it all the time anyway, since the box score and +/- metrics present their own unique limitations in analysis. But this is a segue into your next post...

Well, by mashing everything into a black box, what he's done is create a flawed stat which can't really be used in an informed manner in conjunction with anything else with a great deal of confidence. Whereas, if you keep the the box score and the +/- separate, you've got two orthogonal indicators than an experienced analysis can factor based on their knowledge of how the two tend to work along with a variety of other factors.

Fair point. On that note, it would be interesting to see if the xRAPM blend would lead to better predictions in blends with other metrics than pure +/- and other metrics, and whether it's increased predictive power over RAPM makes up for the possible overfitting.

Then again, I use everything in analysis anyway (and this is not restricted to the metrics), so it's a bit of a "meh" issue from my point of view. And I still like xRAPM more than RAPM as a predictor despite your reservations.

If Player A has a weaker supporting cast than Player B, but Player A's team does better than Player B, then Player A has "lifted" his team more than Player B.

This statement doesn't consider the interactive effects and the phenomenon of diminishing returns in basketball. It's easier to "lift" a weaker supporting cast; harder to lift a stronger one. (It's also harder to lift a supporting cast that doesn't "fit".) One must account for these things before making any player comparison.

Lazy about it? We're already writing tomes.

If we were to focus on guys other than the Big 3, what would be the intent? Is it to say that LeBron has a weak supporting cast other than the two Top 10 players he's playing next to? Okay, granted.

I'll hold you to this. Go on.

I feel like the crux of the point is this:

You say we don't really know anything about LeBron's limitations because the fit in Miami is so terrible.

If you're talking about "fit" with Wade and Bosh, Bosh is playing his best offensive season since '10 in Toronto; and since Barkley infamously called out Wade in the Knicks blowout win vs. the Heat, Wade's skill curve has been near his performance during the '10 season. This is despite Wade being limited by with knee injuries since LeBron joined the Heat, LeBron and Wade sharing similar skill sets, and all three players changing their roles to some degree in a new system under Spoelstra. For the entire '13 season, the Big 3 together are close to what they did individually on offense by some metrics. It isn't all about RAPM (which you poster earlier), since that stat IS LIMITED. When you consider all the metrics, gametape, and diminishing returns in basketball, they're playing quite well.

No, DocMJ; what I'm referring to is your criticism of the Heat's ortg since LeBron joined the team. The Big 3 have played well, but you grossly overrate the rest of the supporting cast (players who have significant input into any team's ortg), which I will show later on.

I say that I still expected better, and that I'm cautious about making assumptions about what ultra-outlier offensive performances LeBron could have given we haven't seen it, and that the issue of talent redundancy that we see in Miami would seem to be something that exists with any team capable of reaching those unheard of levels.

You then say "But you don't really know for sure", and I say "You're right".

I don't think you're just merely being skeptical. It's one thing to wonder how a player would hypothetically perform with a good offensive team with the ideal ingredients in place, but from what I've been reading in your posts you seem to go as far as to assume that that player isn't capable of this (LeBron) compared to another player who is playing with these ideal ingredients (Durant). And no, don't keep insisting that Durant/Westbrook is a bad "fit". Even with Westbrook's flaws, those players have more distinct, complementary games than James/Wade. This IS NOT a fair comparison, and you know it.

Hence my use of "just taken as an ideal". Clearly you're saying we have to do more than that, and clearly based on the amount of my writing, I am doing more than that, but we're also having issues with fundamental agreement on basic semantics so I have to lay these things down from time to time.

Writing a lot doesn't mean you're actually doing sound analysis. I'll get to that later.

Would the team be better if Wade was a more capable playmaker? Surely.

Do you think Westbrook is an elite level playmaker?

I mean it's working well with the two of them, but I can't really fathom the idea that if you've got a world-class off-ball player you wouldn't love to have the best playmaker you can next to him.

Let me take this same post and change some words here:

Would the team be better if Wade was a more capable shooter? Surely.

Do you think Wade is an elite level shooter?

I mean it's working well with the two of them, but I can't really fathom the idea that if you've got a world-class playmaker you wouldn't love to have the best shooter you can next to him.

Now, if you still claim that you cannot imagine how this can help LeBron and the Heat, you're not being honest.

Let's consider Battier here.

This is a guy long considered probably the single greatest role player in the entire league. Does all the little things. Phenomenal defender, and certainly capable of hitting the open trey. I understand he's getting older, and maybe that's your point, but isn't he in theory exactly the type of guy you'd try to slot in next to the Big 3?

Chalmers? Hey, if you're going to have your 2 & 3 be the dictators of the offense, what are you expecting to get at the 1?

Haslem? The Big 3 took paycuts specifically so that he would stay because he seemed the precise type of player they needed.

I feel like you're looking at the things going wrong and saying "If those weren't going wrong, it would all be great", and I'm looking at them and saying "I don't think it's as easy as you think to reliably build better".

Haslem, who is usually a solid midrange shooter, is shooting -8% (compared to '12) on jumpers this season. Chalmers has never been a traditional PG even before LeBron joined the Heat, he would run the occasional play but his main talent comes from playing off-ball and shooting open shots. He hasn't shot the ball as well either compared to '12 and has even taken a step back in his free throw shooting (-10% from the line despite having the same free throw rate as '12). Are you blaming LeBron for Chalmers's regression from the line, too? Battier has shot the ball better, but he's been more of a black hole on offense and has not rebounded the ball as well. You could put some of that on Spo's insistence on small ball, but that means that the coaching staff is not utilizing Battier properly; only a fool would blame LeBron for this. LeBron loves to find the open man, and Battier doesn't have to shoot over 80% of his shots from 3 when he's not a Ray Allen from that range and he's a good mid-range shooter. He showed he could hit the mid-range shot playing with the Big 3 in '12!

Excuse you, but while you've been going on about "what-ifs" with Durant here and "easily" imaging him playing with a player with better skills and playing in a better offense; you somehow fail to see how a better Chalmers, Haslem, and Battier wouldn't help the Heat's offense. Those players have never been asked to do alot on offense and their roles in Miami are clearly defined. The world's best players are taking away attention away from them and they're not capitalizing on their shot opportunities, and in Battier's case he's not being used properly by Spoelstra who is responsible for being his team's talents together. And this is what I'm talking about when I say that you're not doing as much sound analysis as you think. You look at numbers and draw conclusions, I look at numbers AND watch the on-court actions on the floor AND the coaching personnel decisions that produce those numbers you look at and draw conclusions from. And these are good examples of how the Heat's ortg above league average is being affected by things that LeBron literally has no control over. These role players help the Heat with the lineups they can put around the Big 3; when 5-man lineups are weak in these areas it limits the effectiveness of the team, even while playing with stars.

Talking about changes to aspects in the Thunder offense and personnel as it pertains to Durant while ignoring the Heat offense with LeBron (which is what you've been doing, sorry DocMJ) is biased thinking.

I'll leave it there. Too busy to type up more lengthy, 30-page replies; and perhaps too lazy to type up everything otherwise

[arifgokcen]

There are lots of players that guard multiple positions, Earl Clark for example has Guarded all 5 positions since starting for the Lakers. He's guarded everyone from Duncan to Durant to Ellis. Lebrons defense always gets overrated on this forum, probably because all the bandwagon fans he has.

Dude i dont think you read what i wrote.Lebron has been switched on them not to just defend them but lock them up.Earl clark out of neccessity(because of horrible defense of nash)defended small players with not very much success i might add.You saw what lebron did to him right.

Lebron has totally locked up kobe,rose,al jefferson,pau gasol and many others.(dont forget chandler couldnt defend gasol in olympics so coach K put lebron on him and he didnt even made a single bucket while being defended by lebron)

You see some of the names gasol one of the most talented offensive bigman.Rose possibly the quickest guard.Kobe best shooting guard right now and top 10 player torched many and started to torch wade down the stretch last game and then lebron totally locked him up
Al Jefferson according to realgm best low post offense.Last year arguable the most talented scorer carmelo anthony against lebron shot only 40% against other defenders shot 55%.(source espn miami article)
He only had trouble with durant and even durant had problems against lebron he averages 6TO per game while being defended by lebron(source espn article).He still gets his averages.

Tell me more impressive defender.He is truly something special on the defensive end

I can't have a reasonable conversation with you Lebron fans, lets break down all the players you mentioned.....

Kobe's shot has been off these past couple of games, he shot even worse against Toronto so I guess Derozan locked him up as well right?

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

Pau was destroying Lebron in the Olympics so I don't know why you feel the need to make things up

Rose was only guarded by Lebron during the 4th and the main reason they stopped him was because of team defense and the fact he his jumper wasn't falling same thing Kobe does to Rondo

Tell you a more impressive defender? Thabo is clearly better so is Allen so is AI so is Deng when healthy there are more than a few wing defenders that are better.

Thank you Tien for carmelo part

Let me explain others.You are lying and eveything i said has a source espn you can go check it out.They wrote that stuff.

Kobe started the game horrible then he started to heat up in 4th quarter he went for 4-4 for the first 6.33 minutes from then lebron started to defend him actually asked to defend him.Lakers cam showed that in the huddle from then out he only made one basket we came from a screen that got lebron and wade switched on to kobe.Kobe made a three pointer over wade.Source game play by play NBA.COM

This is the first point

Let me get back to rose
Playoffs.
http://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/lebron-defense-on-rose-statistics/
This is last season
http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/01/lebron-james-defense-on-derrick-rose-effective-once-again/

Even rose himself said he struggled against lebron defense: to quote "its hard man 6'8 260lbs man defending you"

Lebron defended gasol you can ask anyone.I couldnt find the game play but i distintcly remember chandler getting torched after that.Coach K put him on gasol for 8-10 minutes stretch gasol made only one basket that was from offensive rebound.Missed 3 shots and 2 turnovers.

Another thing in playoff series nobody has shot worse against a single defender than rose against lebron.That was tweeted by chris palmer of ESPN.

Now again for a defender nobody would pick any of those players over lebron unless you are a hater like yourself.

I have provided with proof if you want more.I can upload the games to youtube for your pleasure.
Please shut up unless you are gonna provide any kind of proof

[Tien]

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

Carmelo Anthony’s shooting, first round
Defender FGM FGA FG%
James 12 41 29.3%

29.3%

Still doesn't change the fact that Melo has torched him multiple times. Elite defender when it counts? What happened against Dallas in the finals? I guess that didn't count right? I guess Marion is GOAT defender because he made Lebrom have one of the biggest drop offs in the history of the NBA.

Here's Rose's account of what happened against LeBron

"It's hard where a guy, he's running at top speed, he can easily catch up with you," Rose said. "It's extremely hard where a 6-8 guy can easily defend you."

easily defend you

You're welcome Black Feet for helping educate your small brain. You need as much help as you can get.

[COY0607]

games like today really hurt pauls chances for mvp... 4points 9assists on 1-7 in 34 mins.... durant would never have a game like that, at his worst he'll give you 20/5 on medium efficiency

[Black Feet]

Dude i dont think you read what i wrote.Lebron has been switched on them not to just defend them but lock them up.Earl clark out of neccessity(because of horrible defense of nash)defended small players with not very much success i might add.You saw what lebron did to him right.

Lebron has totally locked up kobe,rose,al jefferson,pau gasol and many others.(dont forget chandler couldnt defend gasol in olympics so coach K put lebron on him and he didnt even made a single bucket while being defended by lebron)

You see some of the names gasol one of the most talented offensive bigman.Rose possibly the quickest guard.Kobe best shooting guard right now and top 10 player torched many and started to torch wade down the stretch last game and then lebron totally locked him up
Al Jefferson according to realgm best low post offense.Last year arguable the most talented scorer carmelo anthony against lebron shot only 40% against other defenders shot 55%.(source espn miami article)
He only had trouble with durant and even durant had problems against lebron he averages 6TO per game while being defended by lebron(source espn article).He still gets his averages.

Tell me more impressive defender.He is truly something special on the defensive end

I can't have a reasonable conversation with you Lebron fans, lets break down all the players you mentioned.....

Kobe's shot has been off these past couple of games, he shot even worse against Toronto so I guess Derozan locked him up as well right?

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

Pau was destroying Lebron in the Olympics so I don't know why you feel the need to make things up

Rose was only guarded by Lebron during the 4th and the main reason they stopped him was because of team defense and the fact he his jumper wasn't falling same thing Kobe does to Rondo

Tell you a more impressive defender? Thabo is clearly better so is Allen so is AI so is Deng when healthy there are more than a few wing defenders that are better.

Thank you Tien for carmelo part

Let me explain others.You are lying and eveything i said has a source espn you can go check it out.They wrote that stuff.

Kobe started the game horrible then he started to heat up in 4th quarter he went for 4-4 for the first 6.33 minutes from then lebron started to defend him actually asked to defend him.Lakers cam showed that in the huddle from then out he only made one basket we came from a screen that got lebron and wade switched on to kobe.Kobe made a three pointer over wade.Source game play by play NBA.COM

This is the first point

Let me get back to rose
Playoffs.
http://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/lebron-defense-on-rose-statistics/
This is last season
http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/01/lebron-james-defense-on-derrick-rose-effective-once-again/

Even rose himself said he struggled against lebron defense: to quote "its hard man 6'8 260lbs man defending you"

Lebron defended gasol you can ask anyone.I couldnt find the game play but i distintcly remember chandler getting torched after that.Coach K put him on gasol for 8-10 minutes stretch gasol made only one basket that was from offensive rebound.Missed 3 shots and 2 turnovers.

Another thing in playoff series nobody has shot worse against a single defender than rose against lebron.That was tweeted by chris palmer of ESPN.

Now again for a defender nobody would pick any of those players over lebron unless you are a hater like yourself.

I have provided with proof if you want more.I can upload the games to youtube for your pleasure.
Please shut up unless you are gonna provide any kind of proof

no need to tell me to shut up when I don't join in a circle jerk of your favorite player, again you fall short of providing any good evidence.  All your giving is 2-3 minute stretches where Lebron played good D which is laughable.  I could do the same, there were actually a couple of times during the same game where Artest blew by Lebron. Yes you heard right RON ARTEST blew by Lebron on 2 possessions I guess that means Lebron is also the worst defender in the league.

[arifgokcen]

Wow black feet you really are shameless.

Wow i have provided every theory of mine and TIEN his

You say its only a stretch of the game.Games itself is a stretch and lebron defends these entire 4th quarter to lock them up.Most of these averages are far more than 48 minutes.

So let me get this straight what you say is everytime lebron defends someone in 4th they somehow end up with horrible performance down the stretch its not because of lebron .........

Dude wow wowwwwww

[kamelion4291]

games like today really hurt pauls chances for mvp... 4points 9assists on 1-7 in 34 mins.... durant would never have a game like that, at his worst he'll give you 20/5 on medium efficiency

Chris Paul scored 4 points and let Curry torch him. Paul's MVP candidacy has always been solely on the strength of the Clippers' record. Eventually, people are going to realize that he shouldn't be in the conversation.

[kamelion4291]

:lol: no need to tell me to shut up when I don't join in a circle jerk of your favorite player, again you fall short of providing any good evidence.  All your giving is 2-3 minute stretches where Lebron played good D which is laughable.  I could do the same, there were actually a couple of times during the same game where Artest blew by Lebron. Yes you heard right RON ARTEST blew by Lebron on 2 possessions I guess that means Lebron is also the worst defender in the league.

How old are you? Seriously? He posted numbers of the ENTIRE SERIES where guys like Carmelo and Rose couldn't even hit 30% against LeBron. This isn't just a couple of possessions.

[Black Feet]

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

Carmelo Anthony’s shooting, first round
Defender FGM FGA FG%
James 12 41 29.3%

29.3%

Still doesn't change the fact that Melo has torched him multiple times. Elite defender when it counts? What happened against Dallas in the finals? I guess that didn't count right? I guess Marion is GOAT defender because he made Lebrom have one of the biggest drop offs in the history of the NBA.

Here's Rose's account of what happened against LeBron

"It's hard where a guy, he's running at top speed, he can easily catch up with you," Rose said. "It's extremely hard where a 6-8 guy can easily defend you."

easily defend you

You're welcome Black Feet for helping educate your small brain. You need as much help as you can get.

Lol I must have struck a nerve, do you not like the fact Lebron has been torched by Melo multiple times that you have to revert to a playoff series where Melos team where severe underdogs? All you Heat fans keep bringing up Rose as if that was a great accomplishment to play D one out of 4 quarters on a player who has an unreliable jumpshot. What happened in the playoff series after Chicago? He got torched by Jason Terry.

[arifgokcen]

Melo has torched Lebron multiple times I don't know what numbers your using it must be from just one game

Carmelo Anthony’s shooting, first round
Defender FGM FGA FG%
James 12 41 29.3%

29.3%

Still doesn't change the fact that Melo has torched him multiple times. Elite defender when it counts? What happened against Dallas in the finals? I guess that didn't count right? I guess Marion is GOAT defender because he made Lebrom have one of the biggest drop offs in the history of the NBA.

Here's Rose's account of what happened against LeBron

"It's hard where a guy, he's running at top speed, he can easily catch up with you," Rose said. "It's extremely hard where a 6-8 guy can easily defend you."

easily defend you

You're welcome Black Feet for helping educate your small brain. You need as much help as you can get.

Lol I must have struck a nerve, do you not like the fact Lebron has been torched by Melo multiple times that you have to revert to a playoff series where Melos team where severe underdogs? All you Heat fans keep bringing up Rose as if that was a great accomplishment to play D one out of 4 quarters on a player who has an unreliable jumpshot. What happened in the playoff series after Chicago? He got torched by Jason Terry.

You really are shameless.Wow.

BTW i am not a heat fan nor particularly a lebron fan.I love NBA but since i am not an american i have no favourites.That said

Carmelo averages 23ppg on 43% in regular season games against lebron.Source:http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=anthoca01&p2=jamesle01

In all my life i saw some haters but wow you really are blind.

As for rose vs lebron,in total he defended him about 40 minutes in that series rose shot 6.9% against lebron.Let that sink in.
Name me another player that can slow down rose.Dont talk to me about heat team defense because against any other player in that series he aveged 25ppg on 45%.

So you say when lebron defends him team defense works but when others defend him it doesnt

[Black Feet]

You really are shameless.Wow.

BTW i am not a heat fan nor particularly a lebron fan.I love NBA but since i am not an american i have no favourites.That said

Carmelo averages 23ppg on 43% in regular season games against lebron.Source:http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=anthoca01&p2=jamesle01

In all my life i saw some haters but wow you really are blind.

As for rose vs lebron,in total he defended him about 40 minutes in that series rose shot 6.9% against lebron.Let that sink in.
Name me another player that can slow down rose.Dont talk to me about heat team defense because against any other player in that series he aveged 25ppg on 45%.

So you say when lebron defends him team defense works but when others defend him it doesnt

Looks like Lebron has a bigger drop off playing against Melo than vice versa, so I guess Melo>Lebron on D if I was using your logic. Also how come Lebron couldn't Defend Jason Terry? He's clearly inferior player to Rosé right? Like I said that's all Lebron fans keep bringing up yet they fail to mention he got lite up the next series.

[arifgokcen]

You really are shameless.Wow.

BTW i am not a heat fan nor particularly a lebron fan.I love NBA but since i am not an american i have no favourites.That said

Carmelo averages 23ppg on 43% in regular season games against lebron.Source:http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=anthoca01&p2=jamesle01

In all my life i saw some haters but wow you really are blind.

As for rose vs lebron,in total he defended him about 40 minutes in that series rose shot 6.9% against lebron.Let that sink in.
Name me another player that can slow down rose.Dont talk to me about heat team defense because against any other player in that series he aveged 25ppg on 45%.

So you say when lebron defends him team defense works but when others defend him it doesnt

Looks like Lebron has a bigger drop off playing against Melo than vice versa, so I guess Melo>Lebron on D if I was using your logic. Also how come Lebron couldn't Defend Jason Terry? He's clearly inferior player to Rosé right? Like I said that's all Lebron fans keep bringing up yet they fail to mention he got lite up the next series.

I give up.
What can i say let other people decide who is right

[GreenHat]

Good posts, GreenHat. Nice to see a poster who actually investigates what's taking place behind the team and impact numbers instead of automatically taking everything at face value.

Thank you.

Its the reason why stats haven't taken off in basketball. People use stats to back up what they want to see without looking into them further. Then they make excuses for their guy and hold the other guy accountable for everything.

I hold Lebron accountable for the margin in ft/fga that is clearly something he has a share in the responsibility for. I don't hold him responsible for the Thunder being a much better offensive rebounding team than the Heat because he's better than Durant there anyway, just like he is in individual and team efficiency (sans ft shooting) and in turnover prevention (again individual and team). If you look at the four factors of that Ortg Durant has a huge lead in the factor that neither player really contributes to.

It seems like all of the posters shouting Ortg have stopped now that they can't explain how Durant "lifts" Ibaka, Perkins, Collison and Westbrook into grabbing more offensive rebound than Bosh, Haslem, Joel and Chalmers.

The Heat are only third in the league in Ortg but they are dragged down by absolutely horrible offensive rebounding. Somehow Lebron's "fit" doesn't allow his teammates to rebound

[fatal9]

Even though no one outside of the top 3 has a shot to win MVP, Steph Curry has to be considered 4th at this point.

Wow. I'd love to hear you expound on that.

Yeah I saw you mention being real high on Curry this year on the PC board fatal, and I was hoping you could go into a bit more detail.

I kind of made a short overall assessment of his game in the Rondo vs. Curry thread so I'll just quote that to avoid repeating some stuff.

Curry, no brainer. To me, he's probably been the second best PG so far and he's not even shooting up to his potential from 16-22 feet yet. You can't keep him from getting his shot on the perimeter because of how quick his release is, it's absurd for someone who takes as many and the type of threes he does to be shooting 46% from there. His handles have noticeably improved, very good and crafty passer, runs the offense really well (has developed a nice two man game with Lee), but his problem can be being slightly too turnover prone when trying to create plays. Doesn't put as much pressure off the dribble as the more athletic PGs in the league, so I can understand people preferring Westbrook to him (I prefer my PG being a little more heady though). Also has the versatility to play like a 2 with another on-ball player. Rondo is just way too limited on offense in comparison.

He's gone from being a pretty bad defender, to one of the better defensive PGs, has gotten a lot stronger which keeps him from getting pushed around like before, plays very smart and aware team D, helps on the boards and about an average on-ball defender to go with that (can have trouble with quick PGs though). I've been really impressed with his defense this year, especially given where he was couple of years ago. Might have to give Mark Jackson some credit here.

*note his defense has been subpar since coming back from ankle injury, he's playing a little more tentatively.

Also, to be clear, I'm not overreacting from a good game today, I've considered him around a top 10 player for most of the year and likely the second best PG (though I think Westbrook is a better talent and a bad matchup for him head to head). I will admit that Curry is probably my favorite PG in the league, one of those guys I've been high on since the draft, so there is a little bit of bias but it's not like I don't see his limitations. He lacks the quickness to be an elite "drive and dish" player, he can break off defenders because of his handles, but he's not like the athletic PGs in that sense who can really rip through your defense and create plays or draw fouls at will. But he's way more heady at running the offense. He runs a really nice two man game with Lee that helps make him effective, a very good and crafty passer who has the court sense to make a lot of passes that lead to the "right shot". When you look at the boxscore, his assists are comparatively lower than what you would expect from a top PG, but he doesn't really play a drive and kick game, AND he also plays off-ball two over course of the game when Jack is in (or he'd be an 8+ apg player). It's not because Jack is a better PG than him, not even close, but because it helps a team that lacks consistent offensive players at several positions run a successful offense oriented lineup (especially in fourth). I think the "SG trying to be a PG" reputation he had coming out of college makes people underrate his PG skills and passing ability. He does have a tendency to walk himself into traps at times or make a pass that isn't there, which can result in high TO games against aggressive defense.

He's almost exclusively a jumpshooter for his scoring, which can bring up concerns of consistency but Curry isn't just a great shooter, he probably has somewhat of an outlier skill...to shoot so well from three at that type of volume, taking the type of threes he does, I don't think we've ever seen three pt shooting at this level before. It's absurd. He's not a spot up guy or anything, he can create his shot whenever he wants, has a lightening quick release which helps him against defensive pressure, and has the handles to create looks for himself and get past people when they overplay him. And like all great shooters, he puts a lot of pressure off the ball running through screens and forcing guys to make decisions on whether to help off him or not. But yea, elite or pure or great shooter is underselling him, he will have the GOAT 3pt shooting season by a pretty big margin imo if he keeps this up. After a slow shooting start in first couple of weeks (which is kind of typical of him), he is shooting 51% from three in the last two months while attempting 7 a game (also hovering between 59-60 TS% overall).

Their starting lineup has two rookies and an inconsistent sophomore which is pretty crazy for a team that is 25-13 with Steph in the lineup (btw they haven't had an easy schedule, and didn't come in with any continuity either due to the roster changes). They have a good bench though and the improvement in team defense has helped them immensely (Curry has made himself a part of that improvement). Jarrett Jack is a good backup point guard, who can only play as many minutes as he does because Curry can play seamlessly off the ball. I love the backcourt versatility he provides and a lot of these lineups they run, they can only run because of Curry's presence. The young guys can get their minutes because Curry creates enough good shots to help that lineup from completely sucking on offense, then in the fourth they can run an offensive minded lineup with Jack at PG because of his versatility. While you don't want to draw much from a two game sample where he was out, especially against the type of teams they played, their offensive execution was dreadful and it looked like the type of clueless offensive team you would expect to see given all the young guys getting big minutes. He helps a team that is kind of offensively challenged come together.

But it also comes down to who else should be 4th or 5th in MVP voting? Duncan plays only 30 mpg. Melo while I've waiting for the playoffs and entire year to play out before changing my assessment on, still doesn't create enough offense for teammates for me to get behind him, and his shooting numbers are starting to come back to earth, and Warriors with Curry in lineup have a better record than the Knicks...that's with a tougher schedule in a tougher conference. Who else should be over him?

[theokie]

Durant's now the leading scorer in the NBA. He's also the best player on the team with the best record in the NBA. Durant's team has a 4 game advantage over his biggest competition's team.

Kinda hard not to give it to KD at the half way point.

Pretty big game tomorrow, Thunder v. Clips

[jc23]

I picked Durant before the season started, it has been his award to lose.

[branny]

Even though no one outside of the top 3 has a shot to win MVP, Steph Curry has to be considered 4th at this point.

Wow. I'd love to hear you expound on that.

Yeah I saw you mention being real high on Curry this year on the PC board fatal, and I was hoping you could go into a bit more detail.

I kind of made a short overall assessment of his game in the Rondo vs. Curry thread so I'll just quote that to avoid repeating some stuff.

Curry, no brainer. To me, he's probably been the second best PG so far and he's not even shooting up to his potential from 16-22 feet yet. You can't keep him from getting his shot on the perimeter because of how quick his release is, it's absurd for someone who takes as many and the type of threes he does to be shooting 46% from there. His handles have noticeably improved, very good and crafty passer, runs the offense really well (has developed a nice two man game with Lee), but his problem can be being slightly too turnover prone when trying to create plays. Doesn't put as much pressure off the dribble as the more athletic PGs in the league, so I can understand people preferring Westbrook to him (I prefer my PG being a little more heady though). Also has the versatility to play like a 2 with another on-ball player. Rondo is just way too limited on offense in comparison.

He's gone from being a pretty bad defender, to one of the better defensive PGs, has gotten a lot stronger which keeps him from getting pushed around like before, plays very smart and aware team D, helps on the boards and about an average on-ball defender to go with that (can have trouble with quick PGs though). I've been really impressed with his defense this year, especially given where he was couple of years ago. Might have to give Mark Jackson some credit here.

*note his defense has been subpar since coming back from ankle injury, he's playing a little more tentatively.

Also, to be clear, I'm not overreacting from a good game today, I've considered him around a top 10 player for most of the year and likely the second best PG (though I think Westbrook is a better talent and a bad matchup for him head to head). I will admit that Curry is probably my favorite PG in the league, one of those guys I've been high on since the draft, so there is a little bit of bias but it's not like I don't see his limitations. He lacks the quickness to be an elite "drive and dish" player, he can break off defenders because of his handles, but he's not like the athletic PGs in that sense who can really rip through your defense and create plays or draw fouls at will. But he's way more heady at running the offense. He runs a really nice two man game with Lee that helps make him effective, a very good and crafty passer who has the court sense to make a lot of passes that lead to the "right shot". When you look at the boxscore, his assists are comparatively lower than what you would expect from a top PG, but he doesn't really play a drive and kick game, AND he also plays off-ball two over course of the game when Jack is in (or he'd be an 8+ apg player). It's not because Jack is a better PG than him, not even close, but because it helps a team that lacks consistent offensive players at several positions run a successful offense oriented lineup (especially in fourth). I think the "SG trying to be a PG" reputation he had coming out of college makes people underrate his PG skills and passing ability. He does have a tendency to walk himself into traps at times or make a pass that isn't there, which can result in high TO games against aggressive defense.

He's almost exclusively a jumpshooter for his scoring, which can bring up concerns of consistency but Curry isn't just a great shooter, he probably has somewhat of an outlier skill...to shoot so well from three at that type of volume, taking the type of threes he does, I don't think we've ever seen three pt shooting at this level before. It's absurd. He's not a spot up guy or anything, he can create his shot whenever he wants, has a lightening quick release which helps him against defensive pressure, and has the handles to create looks for himself and get past people when they overplay him. And like all great shooters, he puts a lot of pressure off the ball running through screens and forcing guys to make decisions on whether to help off him or not. But yea, elite or pure or great shooter is underselling him, he will have the GOAT 3pt shooting season by a pretty big margin imo if he keeps this up. After a slow shooting start in first couple of weeks (which is kind of typical of him), he is shooting 51% from three in the last two months while attempting 7 a game (also hovering between 59-60 TS% overall).

Their starting lineup has two rookies and an inconsistent sophomore which is pretty crazy for a team that is 25-13 with Steph in the lineup (btw they haven't had an easy schedule, and didn't come in with any continuity either due to the roster changes). They have a good bench though and the improvement in team defense has helped them immensely (Curry has made himself a part of that improvement). Jarrett Jack is a good backup point guard, who can only play as many minutes as he does because Curry can play seamlessly off the ball. I love the backcourt versatility he provides and a lot of these lineups they run, they can only run because of Curry's presence. The young guys can get their minutes because Curry creates enough good shots to help that lineup from completely sucking on offense, then in the fourth they can run an offensive minded lineup with Jack at PG because of his versatility. While you don't want to draw much from a two game sample where he was out, especially against the type of teams they played, their offensive execution was dreadful and it looked like the type of clueless offensive team you would expect to see given all the young guys getting big minutes. He helps a team that is kind of offensively challenged come together.

But it also comes down to who else should be 4th or 5th in MVP voting? Duncan plays only 30 mpg. Melo while I've waiting for the playoffs and entire year to play out before changing my assessment on, still doesn't create enough offense for teammates for me to get behind him, and his shooting numbers are starting to come back to earth, and Warriors with Curry in lineup have a better record than the Knicks...that's with a tougher schedule in a tougher conference. Who else should be over him?

Damn, thank you for this post.