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Race to the MVP pt. III

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Post#421 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:29 am by MisterWestside

Doctor MJ wrote:I find it hard to completely grasp where you're coming from though. Unless you though Durant had no business being considered a superstar before, him going through a considerable improvement puts him at such a high level it's weird to me you'd feel really any confidence about his limitations. I mean obviously the guys not going to lead the league in blocked shots any time soon, but the truly transcendant players are on a level where it's really hard to list out every way in which they have impact.


Yeah. Let's start over, because you're actually getting this a bit backwards with how I view Durant :)

Durant has been a bonafide MVP candidate since 2010, and the league's 2nd best player since '10 ('11 was actually a "down" year by his standards, but I'm not going season by season here). He also hasn't led the league in +/- in those seasons. I viewed him as a transcendent talent with or without him dominating the league in +/-, because I keep in mind all of the significant quirks that come with the important but NOT infallible +/- family. He's playing his best all-around season in '13 and some of this is certainly reflected by his high +/-, but if I wasn't holding seasons with lower +/- numbers against Durant I wasn't going to use them to boost his candidacy. I still factor them in, of course. I'm just also keeping other metrics and what I watch on the gametape in mind.

Re: Harden "steal" on/off Thunder. The whole reason why I'm using raw +/- data here is to render this issue moot. Harden on the Thunder had great raw +/-, he left, now Durant's +/- is far, far better than it was before. A particular causality should not be assumed, but by definition Harden's mere presence wouldn't make Durant's raw +/- seem unimpressive.


Right, which is why I edited my post to reflect this.

Re: More on +/-. I use the spectrum of +/- stats. The issues you talk about are virtually all dealt with when you add adjusted +/- into the mix. The one issue that remains...if it actually is a statistical issue...is that a player is going to have his +/- ratings affected by the quality of the fit. It's never been clear to me though that that is a bug. I see it as a feature.


Not "virtually". You can do a good job of filtering out things, but multicollinearity can muck up any +/- metric including RAPM; and at the end of the day the context of team dynamics, roster, and coaching is STILL important to factor in analysis. I'm not saying that this is a "bug", but simply that the stats aren't impervious to differences in context nor do they account for all of it.

Quite frankly his lack of reliance on on-ball dominance makes his game more portable than someone like LeBron.


On-ball/off-ball all depends on your roster. I want nothing to do with an off-ball player if my team is already stocked with shooters, but they aren't adept at putting the ball on the floor or setting up others.
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Post#422 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:46 am by TwentyOne920

Durant with a new career high of 52, 21 of which came at the line.

Who has had the most FTAs in a game this season?
bertrob wrote:Any casual fan saying anything about Tim Duncan is usually wrong


bobly wrote:Kobe locked up his All Defensive Team this year after he blocked Lebron in the all-star game.
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Post#423 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:48 am by fallacy

TwentyOne920 wrote:Durant with a new career high of 52, 21 of which came at the line.

Who has had the most FTAs in a game this season?


Harden had 19 in one game and leads the NBA at 10 a game, but it's probably Dwight


EDIT: Dwight had 22 once
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Post#424 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:49 am by QPR

Missed a lot of very makeable shots (by his standards anyway) too, but stayed with it. The game-winner over Marion was just insanely good, against very good defense.
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Post#425 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:51 am by fallacy

apparently Durant had the first 50 point game of the season
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Post#426 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:51 am by Sinant

KD's game goes to show how people that claim "Well Durant is just a better FT shooter than ______" miss the point. Durant had a very poor shooting game but contributed 52 points to his team because he's not only an amazing foul drawer, but someone capable of making 21 straight free throws.

His FT shooting is a huge weapon.
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Post#427 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:55 am by TwentyOne920

Just two FTAs shy of tying Nique's record of most FTs without a miss
bertrob wrote:Any casual fan saying anything about Tim Duncan is usually wrong


bobly wrote:Kobe locked up his All Defensive Team this year after he blocked Lebron in the all-star game.
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Post#428 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:55 am by fallacy

Bad quality, but here's Durant's game winner against the mavs tonight. I'll try to update the quality later

**** Ron Artest
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Post#429 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:58 am by TheKingOfVa360

TwentyOne920 wrote:Durant with a new career high of 52, 21 of which came at the line.

Who has had the most FTAs in a game this season?


Durant just widened the gap in the MVP Race :o
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Post#430 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:11 am by IG2

Man, Durant just won't give LeBron an inch, will he? I thought LeBron was going to make-up some ground once the game went to OT, but Durant just took over. He is completely unperturbed by being "cold". He will still continue to approach the game like nothing has changed, which is the quality of a truly special player. Especially when you have the game to justify it. MJ had it. Kobe had it. Now Durant. This is an invaluable quality to possesses and the boxscore doesn't capture it, but it leads to a lot of Ws when there should be L's.
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Post#431 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:14 am by Kerosene

KD goes ham, I'm a proud Lebron homer and can attest to the fact that the MVP race is being won by Kevin Durant. My goodness, I expect him to hit gamewinners without a problem at this point, not the least but surprised by it.
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Post#432 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:15 am by Krodis

Durant will also move ahead of Melo into 2nd in scoring, less than half a point behind Kobe. If Durant can win the scoring title with a TS% of .650, while leading the Thunder to the best offense and best record in the league...

Well, that would be a pretty remarkable offensive season.
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Post#433 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:15 am by datstockton

PurpleRooster wrote:While OKC has a better record than Miami, I still have James and Durant neck and neck if not James slightly ahead.

I only say this because if you watch the Heat James literally does EVERYTHING for that team. He is the leading scorer, rebounder, play maker, their best defender.

Bosh and Wade consistently can afford off nights, but James absolutely cannot. He is the through line and the constant.

The dude is the best player in the world, and the very definition of most valuable as well.

Nobody does more for their team than James right now.


Thank you. Someone gets it.

The only way Durant wins this year is if his team finishes with a far better record than the Heat, or the media gets voter fatigue with LeBron.

That DOES NOT mean he is the most valuable player in the league (IMO). That has been LeBron for about 5-6 consecutive years.
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Post#434 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:16 am by Doctor MJ

MisterWestside wrote:
Not "virtually". You can do a good job of filtering out things, but multicollinearity can muck up any +/- metric including RAPM; and at the end of the day the context of team dynamics, roster, and coaching is STILL important to factor in analysis. I'm not saying that this is a "bug", but simply that the stats aren't impervious to differences in context nor do they account for all of it.


What you're talking about here is a limitation on the precision of the tool, not a fundamental bias. I'll readily concede the former, but it rapidly becomes a smaller and smaller issue when you has much data as we have. Not that you can ever say "His +/- stats say X, he is clearly X good at playing basketball", it's not so straight forward, but if we're talking about issues relating to team dynamics, etc, then we are talking about issues that all stats would have because these are things that actually determine how effective a player is.

What +/- is telling us right now is that Durant has taken a leap forward in terms of how effective he is being. One can argue this has nothing to do with Durant improving (though I know you aren't doing that either), but there is enough data that it can't simply be dismissed for small sample size.

MisterWestside wrote:
Quite frankly his lack of reliance on on-ball dominance makes his game more portable than someone like LeBron.


On-ball/off-ball all depends on your roster. I want nothing to do with an off-ball player if my team is already stocked with shooters, but they aren't adept at putting the ball on the floor or setting up others.


Sure it depends on your roster, but it's pretty hard to imagine the team whose offense wouldn't get considerably better if it had Durant in place of its lead off-ball scorer. He's better at it than everyone else. Put him on a weak team, it's a huge help. Put him on a strong team, he'll still lift the ceiling. There's basically no limit to how good a Durant-led offense can be.

LeBron on the other hand his offensive game is so impressive because he can do everything, which is at its most astonishing when you have other guys with a clear lack of skills. It's easy to imagine scenarios where diminishing returns are apparent because of this, along with the fact that we've actually seen it in Miami. When you add in that quite frankly there are players i"d rather have on ball than LeBron because they are better playmakers, that takes the portability issue further.

None of this changes the fact though:
1) Basically no one can do more with weak surrounding talent than LeBron.
2) LeBron can be a total beast on defense.
3) When LeBron has his head on straight, he does seem to be someone who can crank it up considerably further in the playoffs than even his regular season standards.
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Post#435 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:17 am by fallacy

here's a better quality game winner for Durant

**** Ron Artest
**** Marco Belinelli
Stephen Jackson aint bout dis lyfe
Patrick Beverly deserves to have his knee ripped to pieces
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Post#436 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:26 am by spearsy23

I feel bad for Shawn marion
bertrob wrote:You can't drive past Fisher when his shorts are pulled up
impossible, not even Michael Jordan can do it
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Post#437 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:30 am by imchillin

IG2 wrote:Man, Durant just won't give LeBron an inch, will he? I thought LeBron was going to make-up some ground once the game went to OT, but Durant just took over. He is completely unperturbed by being "cold". He will still continue to approach the game like nothing has changed, which is the quality of a truly special player. Especially when you have the game to justify it. MJ had it. Kobe had it. Now Durant. This is an invaluable quality to possesses and the boxscore doesn't capture it, but it leads to a lot of Ws when there should be L's.



people blow this "it" up too much. in my opinion if you can shoot you can shoot. which is why melo is "clutch", durant is "clutch", dirk is "clutch", pierce is "clutch", mj was "clutch", kobe is "clutch"

if you can shoot you can shoot, pressure or no pressure. mental matters ofcourse but durant can shoot period so it doesn't really matter what time of the game it is...hes a scorer
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Post#438 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:37 am by KingCuban

Krodis wrote:Durant will also move ahead of Melo into 2nd in scoring, less than half a point behind Kobe. If Durant can win the scoring title with a TS% of .650, while leading the Thunder to the best offense and best record in the league...

Well, that would be a pretty remarkable offensive season.


If this happens, he is a lock for MVP.
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Post#439 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:44 am by fallacy

This is only Durant's 4th game of shooting 30 field goals, Lebron had 22 when he was 24, Kobe had 27, Jordan had 36 (In only 3 seasons)


I wish Durant would shoot more.. :(
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Post#440 Re: Race to the MVP pt. III
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:48 am by NaturalThunder

fallacy wrote:here's a better quality game winner for Durant


Wow, didn't realize how close Marion was to blocking the shot. I had a strange calm about me during the game tonight after we blew of the lead and were on the verge of losing. Even with Durant struggling and missing a lot of shots he normally makes, I remained calm because I just had this feeling he was going to come through with one or two big shots down the stretch. It's gotten to the point where I think I've gotten too spoiled by him. Now, anytime OKC is in tight game in the fourth quarter or OT, I just expect Durant to make a shot(s) when the team needs it.
GetItDone wrote:Durant continues to be the most overrated player in basketball.
Once again disappears in the 4th. On paper it looks like he played good, but he wasn't anything great. When defenses get tighter Durant gets exposed. He can't do much besides shoot jumpers.
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