Race to the MVP pt. III

[kamelion4291]

I'm one of those, but not because I don't think Westbrook doesn't get the ball to Durant or something like this. Westbrook have kind of a restrict court vision and game understanding. He's very good, he's a coachable guy and is more skilled than people think, but his tunnel vision is cetainly not well-suited for a no-system offense that Brooks applies. The offensive set ups are usually what players figure out by themselves, except for crunch time inbound situations.

Sometimes the Thunder's distribution of plays is not well-balanced. Everybody in OKC loves Westbrook, I love Westbrook, but he's not the guy to have a 30% USG. Durant should be a perennial 22 FGAs per game, and Westbrook and specially Scott Brooks role is to get 22 field goal plays for Durant. Since Westbrook isn't a guy that is creative enough for that, should be Scott Brooks to restrict Thunder's offense and keep Westbrook's game to a ~25% USG.

I don't want Thunder to trade Westbrook for nobody other than LeBron, Dwight or CP3, but I'm sure Durant could look better on other enviroments. Durant would look better on an Adelman's run offense, or a Phil Jackson's run offense...

Do you know why this dynamic is never mentioned for LeBron? It's because he's already the elite playmaker so he isn't ever in a position where he needs someone else to get him the ball. If Durant were capable of running an offense, this wouldn't be a problem.

[624]

[Doctor MJ]

Your last statement is a bit odd. Either he has a ceiling or he doesn't, and EVERY player will stretch his effectiveness at a certain level. Prime off-ball player or not, when Durant was the one carrying a larger load his team's offense faltered (it's also why the Westbrook criticisms were at times exaggerated; his role is more important than the media/basketball crowd realized).

I also think that you're still underrating LeBron, and I don't know why you're using Nash to knock him down a peg. Nash "lifted" some great teams, but those great teams were also ideal for him with both personnel and coaching philosophy. If these things weren't relevant then he should be able to lift this Lakers team the same way, with its more talented starting roster. But the Lakers don't miss Nash on the court as much as the Suns did, and certainly not like the Heat (with talents like Bosh and the "similar to LeBron in skillset" Wade) miss LeBron when he's not on the court.

In truth everyone has a ceiling. We're talking about minute differences where an offense that is 60% successful (if 2 points per possession is considered 100%) would be seen as by far the greatest anyone had ever seen but 50% success is consider pathetic by modern standards. It's not like a Durant offenses can hit 100% or anything close to it.

However if you look at really any super-successful offense, it's hard to imagine them being unable to use someone with Durant's offense to make them even better than they are.

Is that the same for LeBron? Well, if I have a superior playmaker, and I'm using that guy optimally, then I can't use LeBron in LeBron's preferred role. LeBron's got so many talents that it's entirely possible he could be great in drastically different roles, but it's a bit of a guess.

Re: Nash on team's with good fit. I think I've been pretty clear about it being not all that clear how to make a team offense that's up there with Nash's best using LeBron and a realistic supporting cast. Before he came to Miami it was perfectly reasonable to assume that given his Cavs success he could go much further if he just had some special players around him. That's not what in Miami though. The data we have available thus tells us of some limitations LeBron has.

The issues with Nash on the Lakers are just silly to bring up to my mind. The year is a total shambles for a wide variety of reasons. It was too soon to talk about limitations with the LeBron this far into his Heat career despite the fact the obstacles they faced were virtually negligible compared to the Laker situation. We're now 2.5 years into the Heatles and we've yet to see anything resembling a truly elite offense. They are what they are.

Of course as I say this let me be clear:

1) Ever player's "lift" varies with context. The fact that Kobe can go it alone and prevent a Laker offense from going completely to hell no matter what certainly affects what kind of life Nash can have.

2) At this point I really wouldn't be on the Lakers ever really figuring this stuff out. The players are too hurt, and too close to the end, especially Nash.

[MisterWestside]

Now sure, the inability to sustain this kind of production in the regular season (or so it seems) can be used to argue against them, but Elgee made points against this reasoning in the peaks project. Championship odds are just not highly affected by regular season performance, so it doesn't seem productive to hold it against Miami that they "only" played like a +6 offensive team in the regular season if they're able to jump up to +10, +11, +12 levels against selectively much tighter defenses in the postseason.

re: ElGee; I've seen plenty of evidence that suggests otherwise on the B-R Blog, but I was about to post that the Heat doesn't come across as a team that seems interested in playing optimal basketball in the regular season.

[Dupp]

Can you dumb down these numbers for me. Is that assist numeber the % of the teams assists they get? Same for rebounds etc? Pauls assist % compared to his usage looks pretty impressive if so. But i guess thats to be expected from the best pg in the league.

I'm not too familiar with usage averages but Pauls looks low for a star. Right?

[therealbig3]

The Thunder offense is +7.7 right now. No LeBron-led team has ever come close to that.

Not a fan of using team offense/defense to show a player's worth on those ends. Its a team game and the other players matter, even when talking about high-usage players.

Ok...but how much more talent do you want on LeBron's team in order to produce an offense like that? If he's the leader of that offense, and he has an All-Star, top 20 player in Chris Bosh, and a superstar, top 5 player in Dwyane Wade, and a bunch of elite shooters like Chalmers, Allen, Lewis, and Miller, what else does he need in order to deliver a historically good offense? In terms of offensive talent, I don't think Durant has that kind of support, especially when you consider the shooters at LeBron's disposal, which are the lynchpins of all elite offenses in the modern era.

I understand it's a team game, but it appears that LeBron has more talented teammates, so why isn't he coming close to the kind of offense that the Thunder are producing this year? It's a totally legitimate argument to argue the fit of LeBron and Wade, and Wade's overall effectiveness the last two years, but like I said, I don't think Durant has an ideal fit with Westbrook either, and Wade has still been a better player than Westbrook the last 2 years.

But keep in mind I'm not saying LeBron is doing a poor job with the talent he has...Miami's offense this year is +5.4...that's awesome. And LeBron-led teams have stepped up their offensive production in the playoffs multiple times (09 Cavs were +7.3, 10 Cavs were +4.6, 11 Heat were +3.6, 12 Heat were +8.4), so he has led some pretty amazing offenses in the playoffs, when it is most important, but he doesn't seem to be capable of doing it for an entire season, which is what I think people are referring to when they say there's a clear "ceiling" with LeBron. This is his 3rd straight year where "talent" really isn't a problem, or at least shouldn't be, and it's not resulting in the type of unstoppable offense that Nash led with a couple of great athletes and a bunch of shooters, the type of unstoppable offense that Durant is currently leading.

[SideshowBob]

Can you dumb down these numbers for me. Is that assist numeber the % of the teams assists they get? Same for rebounds etc? Pauls assist % compared to his usage looks pretty impressive if so. But i guess thats to be expected from the best pg in the league.

I'm not too familiar with usage averages but Pauls looks low for a star. Right?

The stat is Hollinger's version of AST% (BBR's is better) and is: (AST)/((.44xFTA)+FGA+TO+AST).

It's a bit flawed because it combines ALL first degree possessions (possessions ended by a player) with SOME second degree possessions (possessions ending after ONE pass has been made), without even considering third/fourth/fifth degree possessions, which is the same issue that Hollinger's version of USG has, as well as TO%, but they are what they are at this point.

The Rebound number is simply the % of rebounds the player is estimated to grab when on the floor.

[Dupp]

You're a good man sideshow.

[MisterWestside]

Re: Nash on team's with good fit. I think I've been pretty clear about it being not all that clear how to make a team offense that's up there with Nash's best using LeBron and a realistic supporting cast. Before he came to Miami it was perfectly reasonable to assume that given his Cavs success he could go much further if he just had some special players around him. That's not what in Miami though. The data we have available thus tells us of some limitations LeBron has.

Are you so sure about that? I think you keep overlooking some key things while looking at the data:

1. The seven seasons he played in Cleveland and despite being arguably the best overall playoff performer since he entered the league, LeBron played in the Finals once. He has played in the Finals twice since joining the Heat, and when at 100% the Heat have thoroughly dispatched some worthy title-caliber teams. A hot Mavs team and a slumping LeBron are the main reasons he doesn't currently have two rings. Those Cavs teams simply lacked the talent outside of LeBron to hang with teams that could trot playoff-performing stars at multiple positions.

2. Despite joining forces with Wade and Bosh, the Heat roster outside of the Big 3 has been quite subpar. There's no debating this. This affects the effectiveness 5-man lineups you can employ and the versatility of your squad, especially when two player share similar skills. For the grueling 82-game regular season, this is relevant. Not so much in the playoffs when talent, strategy and rest comes to the forefront.

3. LeBron went to JOIN the Heat, with a superstar and roster already in place. Durant was drafted by the Sonics and his roster was carefully crafted around him. That team is also younger and less injury prone, and with more financial flexibility they are able to insert more capable players to work with Durant (Martin and Ibaka gets no credit here. They have easily been better overall than the Heat's best non-big 3 player Ray Allen, who has been good but is a defensive liability who is neither as effective as Martin or valuable on defense while still providing offense s Ibaka).

LeBron's limitations? Not at all. More like that even in the era of super teams like the Lakers and Heat, you're still better off building a proper roster with talent and fit. Not just throwing names together

Re: Nash. You play the injury and team context card to "explain" the lower "lift", and I'm simply asking you to do the LeBron. In addition to all of the things I stated above, Wade is 31 and has been injured on and off since '11.

[Heat3]

People, forget stats, that will have no bearing. Durant will win the MVP. Why? "It is time" that's why. Why won't Lebron win the MVP? "Cause he can't win it every damn year" that's why. Sports writers are the voters and they vote for stupid reasons. Barring injury, this is Durant's award.

[kamelion4291]

The Thunder offense is +7.7 right now. No LeBron-led team has ever come close to that.

Not a fan of using team offense/defense to show a player's worth on those ends. Its a team game and the other players matter, even when talking about high-usage players.

Ok...but how much more talent do you want on LeBron's team in order to produce an offense like that? If he's the leader of that offense, and he has an All-Star, top 20 player in Chris Bosh, and a superstar, top 5 player in Dwyane Wade, and a bunch of elite shooters like Chalmers, Allen, Lewis, and Miller, what else does he need in order to deliver a historically good offense? In terms of offensive talent, I don't think Durant has that kind of support, especially when you consider the shooters at LeBron's disposal, which are the lynchpins of all elite offenses in the modern era.

I understand it's a team game, but it appears that LeBron has more talented teammates, so why isn't he coming close to the kind of offense that the Thunder are producing this year? It's a totally legitimate argument to argue the fit of LeBron and Wade, and Wade's overall effectiveness the last two years, but like I said, I don't think Durant has an ideal fit with Westbrook either, and Wade has still been a better player than Westbrook the last 2 years.

But keep in mind I'm not saying LeBron is doing a poor job with the talent he has...Miami's offense this year is +5.4...that's awesome. And LeBron-led teams have stepped up their offensive production in the playoffs multiple times (09 Cavs were +7.3, 10 Cavs were +4.6, 11 Heat were +3.6, 12 Heat were +8.4), so he has led some pretty amazing offenses in the playoffs, when it is most important, but he doesn't seem to be capable of doing it for an entire season, which is what I think people are referring to when they say there's a clear "ceiling" with LeBron. This is his 3rd straight year where "talent" really isn't a problem, or at least shouldn't be, and it's not resulting in the type of unstoppable offense that Nash led with a couple of great athletes and a bunch of shooters, the type of unstoppable offense that Durant is currently leading.

Miami is #1 in the NBA in field goal percentage and was #1 in 3 point percentage until a bad game against LA moved them down to #3. What else do you want? Offense is more than just offensive talent. Miami's dead last in the NBA in offensive rebounding which is where the players on OKC who aren't considered "offensive talent" can help the overall team offense by getting Durant and OKC a second chance at a shot. OKC's offense also isn't considered to be "unstoppable" compared to other teams like the Knicks or Miami when their lead in efficiency is only by 1-2 points. With that said, LeBron has far more of his fingerprints on Miami's offensive output than Durant does considering he actually runs it while Durant is only a scorer. He isn't the one getting guys their shots.

[ShowTimeERA]

Re: Nash on team's with good fit. I think I've been pretty clear about it being not all that clear how to make a team offense that's up there with Nash's best using LeBron and a realistic supporting cast. Before he came to Miami it was perfectly reasonable to assume that given his Cavs success he could go much further if he just had some special players around him. That's not what in Miami though. The data we have available thus tells us of some limitations LeBron has.

Are you so sure about that? I think you keep overlooking some key things while looking at the data:

1. The seven seasons he played in Cleveland and despite being arguably the best overall playoff performer since he entered the league, LeBron played in the Finals once. He has played in the Finals twice since joining the Heat, and when at 100% the Heat have thoroughly dispatched some worthy title-caliber teams. A hot Mavs team and a slumping LeBron are the main reasons he doesn't currently have two rings. Those Cavs teams simply lacked the talent outside of LeBron to hang with teams that could trot playoff-performing stars at multiple positions.

2. Despite joining forces with Wade and Bosh, the Heat roster outside of the Big 3 has been quite subpar. There's no debating this. This affects the effectiveness 5-man lineups you can employ and the versatility of your squad, especially when two player share similar skills. For the grueling 82-game regular season, this is relevant. Not so much in the playoffs when talent, strategy and rest comes to the forefront.

3. LeBron went to JOIN the Heat, with a superstar and roster already in place. Durant was drafted by the Sonics and his roster was carefully crafted around him. That team is also younger and less injury prone, and with more financial flexibility they are able to insert more capable players to work with Durant (Martin and Ibaka gets no credit here. They have easily been better overall than the Heat's best non-big 3 player Ray Allen, who has been good but is a defensive liability who is neither as effective as Martin or valuable on defense while still providing offense s Ibaka).

LeBron's limitations? Not at all. More like that even in the era of super teams like the Lakers and Heat, you're still better off building a proper roster with talent and fit. Not just throwing names together.

I'd like to know your opinion on this...

You state that the heat role players have been subpar thus far? What exactly do you expect from them with limited touches? Did you expect an aging Ray Allen to be a lock down defender? That was part of the problem with those Cavs teams. I forget which analyst mentioned this, but CLE basically expected its role players to stand in the corners for 82 games during the regular season waiting until Lebron gave them the ball. Then come playoff time, those same role players who were told do 1 thing all season long were expected to do more. I'm sorry this is the NBA, players make or miss baskets but its about looking for other ways to impact a ball game - but how could they when they had no opportunities to do so in the regular season?

Another thing, can we stop looking at the "numbers" to determine whether a player has been subpar or not. For example, if you put Chris Paul on the Heat and still allow Lebron to facilitate the offense - at seasons end you look at Paul's #'s and they read 12 pts / 4ast / 2 reb on 48% shooting. Is Paul declining or fading? Or is it a byproduct of limited opportunities?

Or lets reverse situations, Chris Paul takes control of the offense and Lebron's #'s dip to 28pts / 3ast / 7 reb. Is Durant now viewed as Lebron's equal? Players and teams around the league are built differently. Some players get more opportunities than others.

[LikeABosh]

The Thunder offense is +7.7 right now. .

Are you talking about Ortg?

[624]

I just posted that because it's interesting how Brook Lopez is 4th in PER behind only Lebron, Durant, and Paul...the top 3 candidates.

[kamelion4291]

I'd like to know your opinion on this...

You state that the heat role players have been subpar thus far? What exactly do you expect from them with limited touches? Did you expect an aging Ray Allen to be a lock down defender? That was part of the problem with those Cavs teams. I forget which analyst mentioned this, but CLE basically expected its role players to stand in the corners for 82 games during the regular season waiting until Lebron gave them the ball. Then come playoff time, those same role players who were told do 1 thing all season long were expected to do more. I'm sorry this is the NBA, players make or miss baskets but its about looking for other ways to impact a ball game - but how could they when they had no opportunities to do so in the regular season?

Another thing, can we stop looking at the "numbers" to determine whether a player has been subpar or not. For example, if you put Chris Paul on the Heat and still allow Lebron to facilitate the offense - at seasons end you look at Paul's #'s and they read 12 pts / 4ast / 2 reb on 48% shooting. Is Paul declining or fading? Or is it a byproduct of limited opportunities?

Or lets reverse situations, Chris Paul takes control of the offense and Lebron's #'s dip to 28pts / 3ast / 7 reb. Is Durant now viewed as Lebron's equal? Players and teams around the league are built differently. Some players get more opportunities than others.

Declining, since apparently LeBron running an offense means that Chris Paul can't rebound anymore and his shooting percentage didn't rise despite an elite distributor setting him up with easier opportunities.

[MisterWestside]

Ok...but how much more talent do you want on LeBron's team in order to produce an offense like that? If he's the leader of that offense, and he has an All-Star, top 20 player in Chris Bosh, and a superstar, top 5 player in Dwyane Wade, and a bunch of elite shooters like Chalmers, Allen, Lewis, and Miller, what else does he need in order to deliver a historically good offense?

I addressed most of these points already, but Sefolosha has been roughly as capable as shooting/scoring on offense as any of the players you listed while being a much more capable defender.

That's what I'm talking about.

[Doctor MJ]

Do you know why this dynamic is never mentioned for LeBron? It's because he's already the elite playmaker so he isn't ever in a position where he needs someone else to get him the ball. If Durant were capable of running an offense, this wouldn't be a problem.

I don't think there's any doubt that LeBron's playmaking allowed him to more quickly become super-dominant, and likely will forever make his peak something that could do more with weak supporting talent than Durant.

The thing is though is that he's not really an elite playmaker. He's elite compared to typical volume scorer standards, but those standards are horrendous. Your typical volume scorer suffers from extreme basketball narcissism where they simply can't gauge their own likelihood of success accurately compared to their teammates, and they round up themselves while rounding everyone else down. LeBron stands out first and foremost as a scorer-playmaker because he makes the pass the other guys should make but don't.

This is not the same as someone truly seeing the game on such an obscene level that they seem as if they magically finding every open man and even more magically making defenders abandon the guy who is about hit that corner trey.

LeBron's game relies on the fact that he's such a devastating scoring threat that his sheer gravity will leave other players open. It does and it works, however when your teammates are good enough at scoring this isn't enough to prevent them from being completely underutilized.

Durant's game represents significantly less opportunity cost. The other players have to do more around him, but his game doesn't really push them out of the way. There's a sense of autonomy to it. Is that enough to make it easier to build a truly GOAT level team around him than LeBron? I'm not saying "Yes", I'm saying it's not crazy to think that it might be true.

[ShowTimeERA]

Do you know why this dynamic is never mentioned for LeBron? It's because he's already the elite playmaker so he isn't ever in a position where he needs someone else to get him the ball. If Durant were capable of running an offense, this wouldn't be a problem.

I don't think there's any doubt that LeBron's playmaking allowed him to more quickly become super-dominant, and likely will forever make his peak something that could do more with weak supporting talent than Durant.

The thing is though is that he's not really an elite playmaker. He's elite compared to typical volume scorer standards, but those standards are horrendous. Your typical volume scorer suffers from extreme basketball narcissism where they simply can't gauge their own likelihood of success accurately compared to their teammates, and they round up themselves while rounding everyone else down. LeBron stands out first and foremost as a scorer-playmaker because he makes the pass the other guys should make but don't.

This is not the same as someone truly seeing the game on such an obscene level that they seem as if they magically finding every open man and even more magically making defenders abandon the guy who is about hit that corner trey.

LeBron's game relies on the fact that he's such a devastating scoring threat that his sheer gravity will leave other players open. It does and it works, however when your teammates are good enough at scoring this isn't enough to prevent them from being completely underutilized.

Durant's game represents significantly less opportunity cost. The other players have to do more around him, but his game doesn't really push them out of the way. There's a sense of autonomy to it. Is that enough to make it easier to build a truly GOAT level team around him than LeBron? I'm not saying "Yes", I'm saying it's not crazy to think that it might be true.

Excellent points...

[MisterWestside]

LeBron's game relies on the fact that he's such a devastating scoring threat that his sheer gravity will leave other players open. It does and it works, however when your teammates are good enough at scoring this isn't enough to prevent them from being completely underutilized.

And off the top of your head, how many of LeBron's Heat teammates outside of Wade/Bosh do you truly believe are "good enough at scoring"? (Related to the 2nd point in my previous post).

[MisterWestside]

I forget which analyst mentioned this, but CLE basically expected its role players to stand in the corners for 82 games during the regular season waiting until Lebron gave them the ball. Then come playoff time, those same role players who were told do 1 thing all season long were expected to do more.

Actually, they were expected to do the same things they did from before: convert on the same shots that they made all season and play the same Mike Brown defense that they played all season. They did neither.

By the way, since you value rings so much, the better player between James and Durant shouldn't even be a question for you.