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What's Lillard's ceiling?

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Post#81 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:05 pm by Beardman

How does a slightly athletic PG improve to the point where he becomes comparable to a Derrick Rose ?

You can improve your conditioning and endurance, but I don't see Lillard becoming an elite athlete. That is a natural talent.
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Post#82 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:06 pm by Bskey

MellowRose wrote:Question: If Rose and Lillard have near identical physical gifts, what makes one's playing style so different than the others? Maybe this question has an obvious answer to some of you, but I'm at a loss. Sure, you can say that it's the same with any other person. Take a 5 foot 7 inch dude and another 5 foot 7 inch guy and compare their playing styles, and for the most part SOME things would differ, but NOT their entire style of play. Any answers?


They just play differently. Rose IS more "explosive" even if Lillard is comparable in athletic measurements. Lillard has a better shot and has taken advantage of it, where as Rose's shot isn't as good. He relies more on driving which is why he got really good at it.

Rose has improved his shot though, so it's silly to think Lillard can't do the same with his driving.
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Post#83 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:10 pm by dpnim

Bskey wrote:They like to point to players really becoming what they are in their 3rd season. With how early a lot of guys are drafted these days they are usually around 22 by then. So people assume it's an age thing ignoring the fact that it's much more of an NBA experience thing. If a guy is 19 or 22 a rookie is a rookie. People had doubts Damian could even play in the NBA because he played in a small school against weak competition, but then they turn it around now and claim he's only as good as he is because he benefited from staying in school. Can't have it both ways.

Whether a guy gains access to NBA facilities and training staffs at 19 or 21 is pretty irrelevant. Experience is what counts. Guys do not stop improving at 22, unless they stayed in school apparently. To anyone being objective there's no logical reason to think Lillard can't get better, he's showing all-star potential right now in his rookie year.


To add to what you said. Nowadays, people commonly associate success and potential by how early players leave college.
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Post#84 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:39 pm by 420

All-Star reserve at this point with the chance to be greater.
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Post#85 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:26 pm by BeasleyTheBeast

21/7/4 is the highest I see, Tim Hardaway at best
Inreponse to Derrick Rose's Brother criticising the Bulls FO

RunSunRun wrote:"Wait...Derrick Rose has a brother, can he play?"

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Post#86 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:34 pm by 1UPZ

BeasleyTheBeast wrote:21/7/4 is the highest I see, Tim Hardaway at best


Tim Hardway was close to a 20/10 PG...
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Post#87 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:48 pm by Clyde Frazier

BeasleyTheBeast wrote:21/7/4 is the highest I see, Tim Hardaway at best


Sounds like you're underrating hardaway a bit with the "at best" phrasing. Maybe not.

Hardaway made 5 all NBA teams and finished top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. From 91 to 98 he put up 20 PPG, nearly 4 RPG, 9 APG, and nearly 2 SPG. Pretty damn impressive.

I think Lillard has top 5 PG potential.
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Post#88 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:50 pm by sir G Wallace

Lillard becomes really passive a lot during games (Early Brandon roy disease). I can see him be 22/8 in his prime when he learns to constantly attack
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Post#89 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:35 pm by TwentyOne920

dpnim wrote:
Bskey wrote:They like to point to players really becoming what they are in their 3rd season. With how early a lot of guys are drafted these days they are usually around 22 by then. So people assume it's an age thing ignoring the fact that it's much more of an NBA experience thing. If a guy is 19 or 22 a rookie is a rookie. People had doubts Damian could even play in the NBA because he played in a small school against weak competition, but then they turn it around now and claim he's only as good as he is because he benefited from staying in school. Can't have it both ways.

Whether a guy gains access to NBA facilities and training staffs at 19 or 21 is pretty irrelevant. Experience is what counts. Guys do not stop improving at 22, unless they stayed in school apparently. To anyone being objective there's no logical reason to think Lillard can't get better, he's showing all-star potential right now in his rookie year.


To add to what you said. Nowadays, people commonly associate success and potential by how early players leave college.


And more often than not the one and doners don't really tap into that perceived upside.

Of course, some 4 year college players don't become stars, but for every Derrick Rose there's a Tim Duncan as far as player development goes.
bertrob wrote:Any casual fan saying anything about Tim Duncan is usually wrong


bobly wrote:Kobe locked up his All Defensive Team this year after he blocked Lebron in the all-star game.
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Post#90 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:05 am by DaeDae

Wizenheimer wrote:
DaeDae wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant
difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


You don't think being 2+ years older than derrick physically matters? I'd be interested to see what lillards combine numbers would have looked at at 19.

Edit: nevermind that. Just look at the differences athletically between 19 year old LeBron and 21 year old LeBron. Or 19 year old kobe and 21 year old Kobe. Or 19 year old rose and 21 year old rose. or 19 year old Durant and 21 year old Durant. Or 19 year old T Mac and 21 year old Tmac. I could go on and on. If you are goi g to compare them, compare them at the same age developmentally, not when they entered the league.


did I say an age difference doesn't matter? I think it does, although I don't think it matters as much as you and others are making it out to matter

you're also contrasting a difference between players when they entered the NBA and a couple of years later....after they have the advantages of a couple of NBA training camps as well as having the attention and support of NBA trainers, staffs, and facilities

so then, 21-22 year old players apparently can't develop with that kind of support, while 19 and 20 year old players apparently can...is that what you're saying?

I think it's also the case that everybody is imagining Rose last year before his injury. Well that was Rose in his 3rd season who was a significantly improved player over his rookie season. While as we know, it's Lillard's rookie season. If the age difference when drafted is significant factor, then so it the difference in experience.

again, I am not saying Lillard is now, or will ever be, the player Rose is. I am saying that by the gauges the NBA uses, they were pretty similar in size, verticals, and mobility the month before they were drafted.

Furthermore, the same argument you are implying and others are explicitly making, that being that Lillard doesn't have a lot of room to improve because of his 'age', were the exact same arguments made against Brandon Roy and those arguments were fundamentally flawed and quite wrong. Roy did improve significantly from his rookie year to his 3rd season. Probably not as much as Rose improved, but it was a big advancement in ability

will Lillard match that? I don't know. But at least I know it's very possible. As a matter of fact, it's almost certain. Because if it wasn't then you're saying that Larry Bird who was 23 when he was a rookie didn't improve. Or that Michael Jordan who was only 6 months younger then Lillard is as a rookie had no room for improvement. The list of players who started at 22 is extremely long. That used to be the norm



I'm saying a 22 year ol has LESS room for improvement developmentally than a 19 year old. That is all. ZThe rest of your post is a nonsensical arguement against a strawman that I did not create, nor will I entertain. Your original argument was and remains too simplistic. I was rebutting that, not whether or not he can improve athletically, which is something I never commented on to begin with.
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Post#91 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:18 am by princeofpalace

Tony Parker
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Post#92 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:18 am by DaeDae

TwentyOne920 wrote:Of course, some 4 year college players don't become stars, but for every Derrick Rose there's a Tim Duncan as far as player development goes.



Really? Show me all the 4 year college players in the last 20 years that are on the same level with the following:

Kobe
Tmac
Lebron
Carmelo
Derrick Rose
Durant
Dwight Howard
KG
Kyrie
Kevin Love
Eric Gordon

Even Granger, Deng, et al. are above the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of 4 year guys.

That doesn't even count the "2 and done" guys like Shaq, CP3, Black Griffin, Westbrook etc

Outside of Wade, Roy and Duncan, all exceptions to the four year rule (Was Roy a 4 year player?), your argument fails terribly. There ARE exceptions of course. One and done'rs fail. And certainly there are a (very small) number of 4 year guys that break out. But the general rule of the NBA is, and HAS BEEN for the last 20 years, that if you are good enough to go, you go as early as you can. 4 year college players become 4 year college players BECAUSE largely in years 1,2, and 3, they aren't seen as super high upside NBA players. Period.

Again, this isn't a commentary on Lillard specifically, but moreso on the lazy analysis tht is being used to categorize him as this or that.
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Post#93 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:24 am by orangeparka

I like the Billups comparison for him.
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Post#94 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:02 am by spacemonkey

nuposse04 wrote:Arenas with better shot selection, possibly a better distributor as well.


That's like the anti-Arenas (???)
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Post#95 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:22 am by Kobe Bean

Poor man's Norris "Big 4" Cole

I mean he's like 22 years old. That's ancient. Even fossil KG has more of an upside. Dude has no lift or body control either
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Post#96 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:04 am by Jack wore plaid

BeasleyTheBeast wrote:21/7/4 is the highest I see, Tim Hardaway at best



So the "highest" you can see from Lillard is his scoring going up 2.7 ppg, his assist totals going up .4 asp, and his rebounds going up .5 rpg from his rookie season?
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Post#97 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:42 am by Yuri Vaultin

princeofpalace wrote:Tony Parker

Except with amazing 3 ball range?

At this point he reminds me of a 25/26 year old Jason Terry. The kid will only get better. I'm pretty sure those writing him off are the same posters that thought he'd be a bust. These posters will continue to be wrong.
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Post#98 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:14 am by Senor Chang

Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.
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Post#99 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:26 am by Wizenheimer

Senor Chang wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.


the sprint is an important number. So is the lane agility as it factors in lateral as well as vertical speed. For PG's, the one issue with both those tests is that neither is conducted with a basketball.
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Post#100 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:47 am by Ice the knees

noobcake wrote:
MellowRose wrote:Does he not enough athleticism to become the next Rose?


He is not freak athletic, but being good is not all about being a freak. Rose actually has a lot of skills. Rose and Westbrook are both 70% athleticism, 30% skill point guards. Irving relies on 80% skill, 20% athleticism. He doesn't have the skill to make up his non-elite athleticism.

Lillard is really really old; he is in fact older than Irving by 2 years. His skill and body has both matured to probably 70-80% levels/




Rose is one of the most skilled players in the league...
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