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What's Lillard's ceiling?

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Post#61 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:36 pm by Copperhead

dpnim wrote:
Copperhead wrote:Stephon Marbury was 19 as a rookie. Chauncey was 21.

Were there any other 22 year old drafted rookies in the 2012 draft besides Lillard?

ETA: I was just wondering how many players were as old as Lillard on draft night. These are oftentimes the ones most polished entering the league.

I checked. Players drafted in the 1st round other than Lillard that were 22 on draft night were..

Tyler Zeller
Andrew Nicholson
Fab Melo
Miles Plumlee
Festus Ezeli


Damian was 21 when he was drafted. Didn't turn 22 until Summer League.


Oh okay. Being 22 for a full rookie season is pretty doggone old these days though.
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Post#62 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:36 pm by moocow007

Wade would be his absolute ceiling.
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Post#63 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:40 pm by Wizenheimer

just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine
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Post#64 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:43 pm by moocow007

Lillard is very impressive physically for a guard. I think you'll see him add some weight and bulk and become an even more dominant player going forward. Just something about him that says "star".
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Post#65 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:54 pm by dpnim

From my perspective he does play in some ways similar to Billups, not entirely but in some ways he reminds me of Billups composure and pace. From that video, I can see a bit of Marbury too, they both make the simple play, use the pick, and have a similar pace.

People have to understand that all the comparison are within context. The Rose comparison is that their draft measurements were similar. That's probably as far as that one goes, as Rose has become much more rugged after being drafted. The Westbrook comparison, to me, never made sense plus stylistically they don't play similar at all. Not to mention Westbrook looks like he's grown substantially since being drafted.

The Brandon Roy comparison tends to happen just because they are both Blazers. Although, they both have their own pace, Brandon was much more adept at controlling his speed and hesitate with his dribbling skills to get what he want. He can lullaby a defender to sleep. He was great in ISO because of how dangerous he was with his skillset. Damian doesn't have that right now. He plays more simply with a dash of excitement every once in a while. He has his own pace but I think it's because he's looking for the right play, especially when he comes out of the pick and roll.

Damian is decently athletic, and similarly to Roy, doesn't really show it in his game. I get the feeling he doesn't deem it necessary. He's a simple guy, score and get back on D, win the game. I also feel that maybe he's keeping things simple this year, just to gauge the 82 game season before he overly exerts himself for no reason. At this point, he doesn't have that "I want to kill you" every play mentality. He's trying to balance playmaking and scoring for himself.

I'd love to see him pick up more of Steve Nash qualities with controlling the pick and roll, also using his body and hesitation to keep his defender behind him (Nash uses his ass alot once he gets pass his defender). I really wish he'd be as good at D as Holiday but that's probably far fetched. Lillard is going to be better, he needs to work on finishing at the rim better and not relying on his jumper but as he grows and gets more creative, I can see him being a multi-faceted threat from anywhere on the court.
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Post#66 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:54 pm by DaeDae

Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant
difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


You don't think being 2+ years older than derrick physically matters? I'd be interested to see what lillards combine numbers would have looked at at 19.

Edit: nevermind that. Just look at the differences athletically between 19 year old LeBron and 21 year old LeBron. Or 19 year old kobe and 21 year old Kobe. Or 19 year old rose and 21 year old rose. or 19 year old Durant and 21 year old Durant. Or 19 year old T Mac and 21 year old Tmac. I could go on and on. If you are goi g to compare them, compare them at the same age developmentally, not when they entered the league.
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Post#67 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:59 pm by dpnim

Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


The comparison is valid BUT while he measures the same and has similar numbers in athletic testing, he doesn't use it in his style of play. With the way he plays, I can't see him ever changing styles into what Rose does. Just not the same type of player.
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Post#68 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:01 pm by rockmanslim

Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


just for the sake of completeness:

Standing Reach: Rose 8' 2.5"....Lillard 7' 11.5"
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Post#69 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:02 pm by MalonesElbows

Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


If Rose was tested at the same age Lillard was I would expect his athletic numbers would be a couple points better all around. Rose is significantly stronger and faster than Lillard, particularly his acceleration which is oh so important to get the blow by. This is reflected in Lillard's low finishing rate at the rim, 52%, compared to Rose's 58% at the same age. Lillard spends almost all his time on the perimeter shooting jumpers (80%), while Rose is in the high 60s. Lillard does this out of necessity, not design.
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Post#70 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:04 pm by DaeDae

MalonesElbows wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


If Rose was tested at the same age Lillard was I would expect his athletic numbers would be a couple points better all around. Rose is significantly stronger and faster than Lillard, particularly his acceleration which is oh so important to get the blow by. This is reflected in Lillard's low finishing rate at the rim, 52%, compared to Rose's 58% at the same age. Lillard spends almost all his time on the perimeter shooting jumpers (80%), while Rose is in the high 60s. Lillard does this out of necessity, not design.
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Post#71 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:04 pm by MellowRose

So with this all said and done, Lillard could definitely do what Rose does in terms of explosiveness and vertical jump, but that's not the way he plays. He tends to let everything play out, do a lot of PnR, fade away shots, and the like. He's not a beast who loves to drive to the hoop. Case closed on Lillard v. Rose?
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Post#72 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:09 pm by dpnim

MellowRose wrote:Case closed on Lillard v. Rose?


Similarities? Sure. I think the case is should have been peaked into but never been opened.
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Post#73 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:14 pm by BigLurch92

Players usually peak at 28-29 not 22. Anybody who thinks Lillard has peaked is ridiculous. He has only played 41 games in his NBA career.

athleticism may peak at some point but knowledge and Basketball IQ never do, and Damian is a very smart, confident player already.
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Post#74 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:15 pm by Shem

Bskey wrote:Oh that's right, Lillard stayed in school so his ceiling is automatically lower. He's been better than a majority of PGs since day 1 but since he's already the ANCIENT age of 22 there's no way he could improve. That's when all players peak especially rookies.

People seem to forget that players entered their rookie year around 21-22 very commonly for decades in the NBA and if people didn't get better from that point on, then they would have a case.

And it wasn't until the mid-90's where this trend of coming out as early as possible happened. There is a large handful of players who were 3-4 year college guys who came in as a rookie and improved year-by-year. In fact... again; that was the norm for decades.
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Post#75 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:16 pm by rockmanslim

MalonesElbows wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


If Rose was tested at the same age Lillard was I would expect his athletic numbers would be a couple points better all around. Rose is significantly stronger and faster than Lillard, particularly his acceleration which is oh so important to get the blow by. This is reflected in Lillard's low finishing rate at the rim, 52%, compared to Rose's 58% at the same age. Lillard spends almost all his time on the perimeter shooting jumpers (80%), while Rose is in the high 60s. Lillard does this out of necessity, not design.


You could say the same thing about Rose's style. When you have a poor jumpshot you tend to want to take less of them.
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Post#76 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:19 pm by cucad8

so for a few pages, we have people saying he couldn't improve athletically, but not the page turns to since Rose was younger....he improved athletically since then. Makes plenty of sense.
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Post#77 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:28 pm by MellowRose

Question: If Rose and Lillard have near identical physical gifts, what makes one's playing style so different than the others? Maybe this question has an obvious answer to some of you, but I'm at a loss. Sure, you can say that it's the same with any other person. Take a 5 foot 7 inch dude and another 5 foot 7 inch guy and compare their playing styles, and for the most part SOME things would differ, but NOT their entire style of play. Any answers?
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Post#78 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:29 pm by dpnim

I, for one, am NOT saying he CAN'T improve athletic. Like I said, I think he's getting a feel for the 82 game season too, with high MPG, he's reserving his energy for when needed. But, what I'm saying is he will mostlikely never play like Rose. Very different styles of play. Damian really needs to work on his finishing at the rim, the one major thing, I see, that wasn't challenging enough in college for him compared to the NBA.
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Post#79 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:41 pm by Wizenheimer

DaeDae wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant
difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine


You don't think being 2+ years older than derrick physically matters? I'd be interested to see what lillards combine numbers would have looked at at 19.

Edit: nevermind that. Just look at the differences athletically between 19 year old LeBron and 21 year old LeBron. Or 19 year old kobe and 21 year old Kobe. Or 19 year old rose and 21 year old rose. or 19 year old Durant and 21 year old Durant. Or 19 year old T Mac and 21 year old Tmac. I could go on and on. If you are goi g to compare them, compare them at the same age developmentally, not when they entered the league.


did I say an age difference doesn't matter? I think it does, although I don't think it matters as much as you and others are making it out to matter

you're also contrasting a difference between players when they entered the NBA and a couple of years later....after they have the advantages of a couple of NBA training camps as well as having the attention and support of NBA trainers, staffs, and facilities

so then, 21-22 year old players apparently can't develop with that kind of support, while 19 and 20 year old players apparently can...is that what you're saying?

I think it's also the case that everybody is imagining Rose last year before his injury. Well that was Rose in his 3rd season who was a significantly improved player over his rookie season. While as we know, it's Lillard's rookie season. If the age difference when drafted is significant factor, then so it the difference in experience.

again, I am not saying Lillard is now, or will ever be, the player Rose is. I am saying that by the gauges the NBA uses, they were pretty similar in size, verticals, and mobility the month before they were drafted.

Furthermore, the same argument you are implying and others are explicitly making, that being that Lillard doesn't have a lot of room to improve because of his 'age', were the exact same arguments made against Brandon Roy and those arguments were fundamentally flawed and quite wrong. Roy did improve significantly from his rookie year to his 3rd season. Probably not as much as Rose improved, but it was a big advancement in ability

will Lillard match that? I don't know. But at least I know it's very possible. As a matter of fact, it's almost certain. Because if it wasn't then you're saying that Larry Bird who was 23 when he was a rookie didn't improve. Or that Michael Jordan who was only 6 months younger then Lillard is as a rookie had no room for improvement. The list of players who started at 22 is extremely long. That used to be the norm
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Post#80 Re: What's Lillard's ceiling?
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:01 pm by Bskey

Wizenheimer wrote:Furthermore, the same argument you are implying and others are explicitly making, that being that Lillard doesn't have a lot of room to improve because of his 'age', were the exact same arguments made against Brandon Roy and those arguments were fundamentally flawed and quite wrong. Roy did improve significantly from his rookie year to his 3rd season. Probably not as much as Rose improved, but it was a big advancement in ability


People have a lot of strange things stuck in their heads. One being that a player that stayed in school will not improve much in the NBA.

They like to point to players really becoming what they are in their 3rd season. With how early a lot of guys are drafted these days they are usually around 22 by then. So people assume it's an age thing ignoring the fact that it's much more of an NBA experience thing. If a guy is 19 or 22 a rookie is a rookie. People had doubts Damian could even play in the NBA because he played in a small school against weak competition, but then they turn it around now and claim he's only as good as he is because he benefited from staying in school. Can't have it both ways.

Whether a guy gains access to NBA facilities and training staffs at 19 or 21 is pretty irrelevant. Experience is what counts. Guys do not stop improving at 22, unless they stayed in school apparently. To anyone being objective there's no logical reason to think Lillard can't get better, he's showing all-star potential right now in his rookie year.
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