ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally!

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ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#1 » by jinxed » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:39 pm

ESPN has finally gotten on board with the statistical revolution and added their version of adjusted plus/minus.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

This stat is the best because it measures all the little things that don't show up in a box score, but help your team win, and on defense. In terms of wins added (RAPM + minutes played)...here are the most productive players in the league..

1 LeBron James,
2 Kevin Durant,
3 Stephen Curry,
4 Chris Paul,
5 Kevin Love,
6 Dirk Nowitzki,
7 DeAndre Jordan,
8 Andre Iguodala,
9 Blake Griffin,
10 LaMarcus Aldridge,
11 Tim Duncan,
12 Ricky Rubio,
13 Kyle Lowry,
14 Goran Dragic,
15 Joakim Noah
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Re: NBA adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#2 » by criteriado » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:44 pm

Finally. A stat that values defense. Of course there are outliers,(Collison 6th on RPM) but high level role players finally will be valued by people that only looked at PER.
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Re: NBA adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#3 » by John Long » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:45 pm

Clippers 3 players in the top 15 - you'd expect them to have a better record than they currently have
Timberwolves 2 players in the top 15 - yet they won't sniff the playoffs

Goran Dragic is legit.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#4 » by MisterHibachi » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:50 pm

The link has a different ranking than what you posted. Am I missing something?

Edit: ah, you posted the WAR ranking.
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Re: NBA adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#5 » by jinxed » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:50 pm

John Long wrote:Clippers 3 players in the top 15 - you'd expect them to have a better record than they currently have
Timberwolves 2 players in the top 15 - yet they won't sniff the playoffs

Goran Dragic is legit.


Yea, I'm surprised to see Deandre Jordan up there.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#6 » by koolcrud » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:51 pm

RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, coaches and additional factors

....wat
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#7 » by JDR720 » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:52 pm

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Re: NBA adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#8 » by criteriado » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:54 pm

John Long wrote:Clippers 3 players in the top 15 - you'd expect them to have a better record than they currently have
Timberwolves 2 players in the top 15 - yet they won't sniff the playoffs

Goran Dragic is legit.


Yeah. Look at the Wolves bench players in RPM or WARP. Ugly.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#9 » by koolcrud » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:55 pm

If your new stat says that Channing Frye is better than Blake Griffin, it might not be a very good stat. And Iggy > Durant. And Nick Collison > Tim Duncan. This thing is :lol:
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#10 » by Slava » Mon Apr 7, 2014 5:57 pm

Some quick observations just on RPM:

Only pacer in top 40 is West
Dwight & Marc are negative on offense
Far too many Clippers players in the top 40
Iguodola is surprisingly high for an under-par season
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#11 » by criteriado » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:05 pm

koolcrud wrote:If your new stat says that Channing Frye is better than Blake Griffin, it might not be a very good stat. And Iggy > Durant. And Nick Collison > Tim Duncan. This thing is :lol:


Brandan Wright is better than Griffin on PER. PER is trash, too? Every advanced stat is flawed, but having them helps us understanding the game much more.

I used RAPM this years to see which role players are hugely undervalued. Like with PER, it's flawed on some players, but it's still a good stat.

And Iguodala is not having a bad year, he's been outrageously good defensively.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#12 » by Prokorov » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:19 pm

koolcrud wrote:RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, coaches and additional factors

....wat




yea to me this is more of a team/5-man unit stat as opposed to an individual stat. It is basically just pace adjusted +/- if im reading it correctly

they go through a long winded paragraph to say its +/- but better because it takes your teammates impact out of it, but there explanation doesnt reflect that logic
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#13 » by jinxed » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:21 pm

Prokorov wrote:
koolcrud wrote:RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, coaches and additional factors

....wat



so basically, this stat is:
Ortg-Drtg

yea to me this is more of a team/5-man unit stat as opposed to an individual stat. It is basically just pace adjusted +/- if im reading it correctly


You are not reading it correctly. This is an INDIVIDUAL stat, it is ADJUSTED for the quality of your teammates and opponents. Simple +/- is a 5man unit stat, but obviously has the problem of the level of your teammates strongly influences your performance.

What this stat tells you is each players contribution to the +/- score.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#14 » by Prokorov » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:22 pm

jinxed wrote:
Prokorov wrote:
koolcrud wrote:RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, coaches and additional factors

....wat



so basically, this stat is:
Ortg-Drtg

yea to me this is more of a team/5-man unit stat as opposed to an individual stat. It is basically just pace adjusted +/- if im reading it correctly


You are not reading it correctly. This is an INDIVIDUAL stat, it is ADJUSTED for the quality of your teammates and opponents. Simple +/- is a 5man unit stat, but obviously has the problem of the level of your teammates strongly influences your performance.

What this stat tells you is each players contribution to the +/- score.


they SAY its an individual stat, but i cant find anything in the calculations to back that up... adding slightly more individual oriented metrics doesnt really make up the difference at all imo
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#15 » by jinxed » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:27 pm

Prokorov wrote:
jinxed wrote:
Prokorov wrote:

so basically, this stat is:
Ortg-Drtg

yea to me this is more of a team/5-man unit stat as opposed to an individual stat. It is basically just pace adjusted +/- if im reading it correctly


You are not reading it correctly. This is an INDIVIDUAL stat, it is ADJUSTED for the quality of your teammates and opponents. Simple +/- is a 5man unit stat, but obviously has the problem of the level of your teammates strongly influences your performance.

What this stat tells you is each players contribution to the +/- score.


they SAY its an individual stat, but i cant find anything in the calculations to back that up... adding slightly more individual oriented metrics doesnt really make up the difference at all imo


What they do is a statistical technique called "Logistical Regression", if you haven't taken an advanced math class in statistics it is hard to understand.

If you want the technical details, here is a post on it from 82games..

http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#16 » by Scalabrine » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:29 pm

koolcrud wrote:If your new stat says that Channing Frye is better than Blake Griffin, it might not be a very good stat. And Iggy > Durant. And Nick Collison > Tim Duncan. This thing is :lol:


Well it's just one stat and it's based more off hustle and defense and things that the basic stats don't provide.

Just like every other stat, it doesn't tell the whole story. Kendal marshal averages more assists than john wall so do you think the assist stat is :lol: ?
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#17 » by Prokorov » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:31 pm

jinxed wrote:
Prokorov wrote:
jinxed wrote:
You are not reading it correctly. This is an INDIVIDUAL stat, it is ADJUSTED for the quality of your teammates and opponents. Simple +/- is a 5man unit stat, but obviously has the problem of the level of your teammates strongly influences your performance.

What this stat tells you is each players contribution to the +/- score.


they SAY its an individual stat, but i cant find anything in the calculations to back that up... adding slightly more individual oriented metrics doesnt really make up the difference at all imo


What they do is a statistical technique called "Logistical Regression", if you haven't taken an advanced math class in statistics it is hard to understand.

If you want the technical details, here is a post on it from 82games..

http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm


im familiar (im an actuary).

i still dont see anything as to how it negates the other 9 players on the floor. It moves the needle a bit but not nearly enough.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#18 » by jinxed » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:36 pm

Prokorov wrote:
jinxed wrote:
Prokorov wrote:
they SAY its an individual stat, but i cant find anything in the calculations to back that up... adding slightly more individual oriented metrics doesnt really make up the difference at all imo


What they do is a statistical technique called "Logistical Regression", if you haven't taken an advanced math class in statistics it is hard to understand.

If you want the technical details, here is a post on it from 82games..

http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm


im familiar (im an actuary).

i still dont see anything as to how it negates the other 9 players on the floor. It moves the needle a bit but not nearly enough.



Then you simply don't understand the stat. And let's be honest, you are just saying that to back up your original assertion, you don't want to hurt your pride of admitting you're wrong. Be better than that. No one who understands the stat would agree with that assessment.

Or else you can write a detailed paper explaining how the math is wrong and that all NBA teams who spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year these past 10 years hiring mathematicians to calculate this stat for them are wrong and you are right. Even though you have at most spent 2 minutes looking at it.

Good Luck.
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#19 » by Prokorov » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:40 pm

jinxed wrote:
Prokorov wrote:
jinxed wrote:
What they do is a statistical technique called "Logistical Regression", if you haven't taken an advanced math class in statistics it is hard to understand.

If you want the technical details, here is a post on it from 82games..

http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm


im familiar (im an actuary).

i still dont see anything as to how it negates the other 9 players on the floor. It moves the needle a bit but not nearly enough.



Then you simply don't understand the stat. And let's be honest, you are just saying that to back up your original assertion, you don't want to hurt your pride of admitting you're wrong. Be better than that. No one who understands the stat would agree with that assessment.

Or else you can write a detailed paper explaining how the math is wrong and that all NBA teams who spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year these past 10 years hiring mathematicians to calculate this stat for them are wrong and you are right. Even though you have at most spent 2 minutes looking at it.

Good Luck.


clearly i dont, and it has nothing to do with pride. i understand the math, i dont understand how it removes the impact of the other 9 players on the floor. im not saying its a useless stat that doesnt paint a good picture of a players value... i just dont see how its a defensive stat that removes the impact of your 4 teammates and the 5 opponents.

here is what i find flawed:

It is in this regression where the effects of the other players on the floor are accounted for. The bs in equation (1) measure the point differential difference (measured per 100 possessions) of the given player relative to the reference players, holding constant all of the players that shared the floor with that player (and with the reference players), i.e. holding the other players constant. What does this “holding other players constant” mean? Strictly speaking, it means that we can take a player and surround him with four teammates and five opponents and compare how that player’s team would do versus how it would do if he was replaced by a replacement player keeping all of the other players the same. This is what is meant by “holding the other players constant,” since we can repeat this exercise with any other combination of other players.


you are taking something that is inherently variable, and making it constant. you are also ignoring situation circumstances, which is fine when evaluating team defense, but it becomes immensely important for evaluating individual defense. it is operating under the assumption that all things are constant outside of the player in question, at that the level all 9 other players play at is the same regardless of the player who is swapped out -- and that any change would be as a result of the player who was replaced -- which simply can not be assumed.

again, im not saying its a garbage stat that cant help indentify a player worth. but i dont see anything introduced that takes plus/minus down to an accurate individual metric
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Re: ESPN adds new overall stat...REAL PLUS/MINUS..Finally! 

Post#20 » by Greatness » Mon Apr 7, 2014 6:40 pm

Nice to see RAPM finally gaining steam

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