"Money when it Matters" - Clutch stats since 2000

[14nowitzki41]

Kobe taking the most shots... well color me surprised
On a serious note, they're all quite inefficient, basketball is a mind game in the end. As for Dirk, yeah, he was super clutch when it really mattered: in 2011.

Not really. If you look at his statistics throughout the majority of his career, he has always been consistently clutch and puts up amazingly efficient numbers. The main difference in 2011 is that he had a perfect supporting cast around him to get deep enough in the playoffs to get noticed. He did what he usually does in the playoffs, it was just under a microscope due to a deep run. He's always been clutch, he just didn't have the supporting cast or all star teammate to magnify it.


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[John Long]

Kobe Bryant. Period.

I want a man with big balls, no pun intended. Okay, maybe a little pun. However, he's not going to defer out of fear of failure; I LOVE THAT trait.

Yea, that's certainly a good thing, but there's room between deferring out of the fear of failure and straight up just taking all the shots. I think there's a middle ground there where the goal is do what is best for the team, whether it is to shoot or pass, or defer. Maybe passing to an open guy doesn't work this time, but over the long run, making the right and higher percentage play will yield more success.

One of the things I've always hated is when a star who for example isn't a good 3PT shooter will take a three and look off an excellent 3PT shooter. Sorry, but just because you REALLY want it to go in and are a better player doesn't make Dwyane Wade a better 3PT shooter than open / fairly open James Jones.

I understand your point, but I can't argue against a 5 time champion and a man that won back to back titles with possibly the worst ever roster for a back to back run. (Rockets may be worse) His alpha mentality seems to have worked for him.

He also led all 5 title teams in assists.

Amen brother, that's what I like most about him, dude is fearless. I apply that to my everyday life too. If you can't fit it, then stand the **** out! go hard or go home...you're welcome.

[Bro Johnson]

The craziest thing about Johnson is that he doesn't get superstar calls / help...

[GreenHat]

Small sample size? We are talking about 40ish shots over 14 years here.

[NO-KG-AI]

A lot of data left out, because free throws and the ability to draw them is a big deal here, but...

This pretty much shows that you're getting a bad shot in that situation if you are counting on your star to force one. Even Dirk's 45% isn't a great look, and everyone else is well below average.

People might have to start accepting that the best thing to do in the "clutch" is to just pass it to the open guy instead of forcing a shot up against multiple coverage because you're worried about having the "killer instinct".

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

I wonder how Reggie ranks in this statistic.

As a Pacer fan I know it felt like he never missed. I'm pretty sure Knicks fans would tend to agree with that statement as well. Obviously he missed a few, everyone does, but for a last shot - there is no one in NBA history I'd take over Reggie.

[noobcake]

http://www.82games.com/1314/CSORT11.HTM

Another list of this kind, for anyone interested. This is isolated to last season, however (although they have this for several seasons).

A couple of things really stand out to me there: Wow Harden, and KD's assist percentage is pretty elite there, and LeBron's is pretty darn low.

Shut your whore mouth. Haren is trash and cancer and has no redeeming quality even at age 24.

[Winsome Gerbil]

If being used as such, that's a pretty terrible metric for 'clutchness'.

First of all, you have a ridiculously small sample size when considering such a specific situation. Image randomly selecting a 40-shot-attempt stretch for a particular player at some point during a season and judging him on it. That would of course be ridiculous.

Secondly, it fails to account for any other facet of the game; play-making, drawing fouls/free throws, rebounding, defense, etc., which can prove to be just as "clutch" as a made field goal.

Thirdly, it fails to account for a lot of field goals taken/made in similar situations, e.g. a made three to tie the game with 41 seconds left, a shot made when up by one with 19 seconds left, etc.

Finally, you need to consider what goes on in the last several minutes of a tight game, not just the last 30 seconds. A much better measurement would be to factor in what a player does in every aspect of a close game throughout the last 5+ minutes.

82games.com does just that (5min and less, in a tight game). I started a little thread on it in the PC board a few weeks back. I just was dealing with this past season, but it was interesting, including BTW the oddity that Dirk actually sucked down the stretch of games this season. Just one season with an aging player, but not what you would expect. Let me fetch the numbers, since nobody much seemed to nibble on that thread itself.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Here they were. Like I said, this was only for this past season, but 82games does have the same stats going back for a decade. Just more than I wanted to compile:

82games.com has had clutch stats available for a decade. Their definition of clutch time is "4th quarter or overtime, neither team ahead by more than 5 points". They have a sortable list/database now of all players, and I thought the results were interesting this year. Some as you might expect by rep, others not.

Here are the major goto guys in the clutch last year. All numbers are listed per 48 minutes. And amongst the goto guys, the tendency is for the majority of them to score more, sometimes wildly more, as teams force the ball to them, but to see their percentages dive. Not everybody, but that's the main trend. I made the cutoff point here averaging at least 30pts per 48, which gave a top 32.

Harden 49.0pts (.443 .458 .840) 9.7reb 7.4ast in 143 minutes
Irving 47.8pts (.376 .355 .890) 3.2reb 7.0ast in 152 minutes
Durant 47.5pts (.379 .385 .820) 11.1reb 2.8ast in 169 minutes
James 42.8pts (.484 .310 .840) 9.8reb 5.4ast in 176 minutes
Bledsoe 41.8pts (.464 .353 .770) 6.1reb 8.7ast in 94 minutes
Parker 40.8pts (.641 1.010 .600) 2.7reb 4.7ast in 72 minutes
Ellis 40.5pts (.450 .545 .750) 6.1reb 5.8ast in 181 minutes
Cousins 39.5pts ( .525 .000 .800) 19.5reb 4.4ast in 108 minutes
Paul 39.3pts (.406 .333 .780) 8.0reb 10.5ast in 115 minutes
Conley 39.1pts (.517 .409 .790) 5.0reb 6.1ast in 125 minutes
Westbrook 38.2pts (.352 .381 .830) 13.3reb 9.3ast in 83 minutes
Lillard 37.6pts (.473 .442 .860) 4.8reb 4.3ast in 189 minutes
Young 37.1pts (.289 .167 .890) 3.6reb 1.4ast in 67 minutes
Nowitzki 37.0pts (.392 .207 .860) 9.4reb 2.4ast in 158 minutes
Curry 36.9pts (.411 .280 1.000) 8.6reb 5.9ast in 178 minutes
Thomas 36.9pts (.400 .333 .920) 5.4reb 5.9ast in 125 minutes
Augustin 36.5pts (.400 .474 .930) 2.6reb 5.2ast in 74 minutes
Anthony 36.4pts (.355 .333 .920) 10.1reb 3.9ast in 161 minutes
Walker 35.2pts (.343 .231 .790) 9.4reb 4.7ast in 175 minutes
Ginobili 35.1pts (.520 .417 .870) 3.9reb 7.0ast in 62 minutes
Teague 36.4pts (.435 .353 .830) 6.3reb 9.9ast in 175 minutes
Bellinelli 32.6pts (.500 .571 .900) 4.1reb 0.8ast in 59 minutes
Martin 32.5pts (.395 .417 .940) 3.2reb 2.3ast in 106 minutes
DeRozan 32.5pts (.340 .091 .800) 9.2reb 2.9ast in 199 minutes
Roberts 32.2pts (.525 .308 .940) 3.1reb 3.1ast in 93 minutes
Horford 32.0pts (.607 .000 .810) 14.2reb 1.5ast in 64 minutes
Burke 32.0pts (.518 .591 .930) 5.3reb 5.6ast in 128 minutes
Love 31.9pts (.356 .316 .650) 12.3reb 5.4ast in 152 minutes
George 31.9pts (.377 .290 .900) 8.1reb 5.7ast in 136 minutes
Turner 31.7pts (.400 .143 .810) 11.3reb 2.8ast in 102 minutes
Crawford 31.5pts (.429 .346 .930) 3.5reb 3.9ast in 110 minutes
Aldridge 30.5pts (.323 1.000 .830) 15.0reb 3.2ast in 164 minutes

I think that's a different definition of clutch than last shot heroics type clutch. This is closer to who comes through as a goto guy/can carry you down the stretch late in games.

[og15]

It would be nice if they put a TS% or eFG% in there, and you should also add turnovers and assisted percentage just to get an idea of how the shots are coming, but yea, it is a better measure, at least there are more minutes on the floor being taken into account.

[Sedale Threatt]

This pretty much shows that you're getting a bad shot in that situation if you are counting on your star to force one.

This was my takeaway, too. Going iso for your star player late is generally a horrendous plan.

I blame Jordan.

[Shot Clock]

This pretty much shows that you're getting a bad shot in that situation if you are counting on your star to force one.

This was my takeaway, too. Going iso for your star player late is generally a horrendous plan.

I blame Jordan.

ESPN did an article on exactly this a couple years ago.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7649571/nba-kobe-bryant-not-money-think-espn-magazine

It's actually a good read.

[matt6715]

This pretty much shows that you're getting a bad shot in that situation if you are counting on your star to force one.

This was my takeaway, too. Going iso for your star player late is generally a horrendous plan.

I blame Jordan.

Yep. Basically the chart says if you need to force a shot, here are your best options.

[choppermagic]

Again, a misrepresentation to only focus on FG%. The end of games is usually chaos and players who are not clutch force bad passes, end up making turnovers or just run out of time to get a good shot off. None of these are reflected by FG%. Also bad decision making in positioning and passing to the wrong guy, etc. all come into play as well.

A guy who does nothing but stand in the corner and gets the kick out from the star and hits open shots could end up with the best FG% in the "clutch", especially if he tries to pass off if his shot is not 100% open, but he is really not that clutch.

[Shot Clock]

Yea, that's certainly a good thing, but there's room between deferring out of the fear of failure and straight up just taking all the shots. I think there's a middle ground there where the goal is do what is best for the team, whether it is to shoot or pass, or defer. Maybe passing to an open guy doesn't work this time, but over the long run, making the right and higher percentage play will yield more success.

One of the things I've always hated is when a star who for example isn't a good 3PT shooter will take a three and look off an excellent 3PT shooter. Sorry, but just because you REALLY want it to go in and are a better player doesn't make Dwyane Wade a better 3PT shooter than open / fairly open James Jones.

I understand your point, but I can't argue against a 5 time champion and a man that won back to back titles with possibly the worst ever roster for a back to back run. (Rockets may be worse) His alpha mentality seems to have worked for him.

He also led all 5 title teams in assists.

Kobe won because he was a great player on great teams with great coaching, not because of his probably over-willingness to take most of the shots when there was little time left in the game.

And having good rebounders added to his supporting cast has greatly helped him over the years.

2002 Lakers lose in 5 if Horry doesn't put in his shot after Kobe misses game winner
2010 Thunder series goes to game 7 if Gasol doesn't put back Kobe miss
2010 Suns series goes to Game 7 if Artest doesn't put back his airball game winner

And you don't want to go to a game 7 and count on Kobe as his numbers drop off in those situations. The Lakers as a whole do phenomenally well in those games despite his decline. How different his legacy would have looked if those rebounds don't happen.

[papfankon]

If you take into account the 1999-2000 season, VC has more than any of these guys.

[Dipper 13]

http://www.82games.com/1314/CSORT11.HTM

Another list of this kind, for anyone interested. This is isolated to last season, however (although they have this for several seasons).

Below we can see Michael Jordan's clutch statistics per 48 minutes, as defined by 82games.com for his top three playoff runs. He nearly doubled his scoring rate in crunch time while also seeing a huge increase in shooting efficiency.


"4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points"


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1297293

Michael Jordan 1990-1992 Playoffs

[Winsome Gerbil]

http://www.82games.com/1314/CSORT11.HTM

Another list of this kind, for anyone interested. This is isolated to last season, however (although they have this for several seasons).

Below we can see Michael Jordan's clutch statistics per 48 minutes, as defined by 82games.com for his top three playoff runs. He nearly doubled his scoring rate in crunch time while also seeing a huge increase in shooting efficiency.


"4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points"


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1297293

Michael Jordan 1990-1992 Playoffs

Yeah, I'm a bit nervous about such a selective set to pull numbers from, but of course that's why Jordan remains the GOAT and seemed almost unbeatable in his prime. He was the assassin who made even other assasins cry.

[semi-sentient]

2010 Suns series goes to Game 7 if Artest doesn't put back his airball game winner.

Oh really? So you predict that the Suns win the game in OT in LA if Artest misses the put back?

[kodo]

so joe johnson was an actual superstar?

that contract the nets handed him wasn't that bad after all

Joe Johnson doesn't have the 48 minute production of a superstar but he's absolutely cold blooded & clutch, from Brooklyn all the way back to Phoenix.

I remember for Phoenix he was fouled flagrantly hard on a drive, landed on his head, fractured his skull, and swished two free throws before being taken to the emergency room.

Kevin Garnett says he calls Joe Johnson "Joe Jesus" Why? "He may not be there when you call him but he's there when you need him."