Rookie impressions

[miltk]

this crop of rookies is so bad that the ROY will be the player with the most mpg

[GopherIt!]

I seriously doubt it. Niko is projecting be a 20/10 stretch PF so he will be pretty darn good regardless of what any other rookie this year is doing at that point. He will also be winning a lot more games now and in the future.

Who is projecting him to be 20/10? Uncle Bob in Waukegan?

[[e]]

Skill has to be measured relative to age/experience.

Honestly, it is an apples to oranges situation attempting to compare a 23 yr old former European pro to three NCAA college freshmen. Four plus years is a huge chasm.

Wouldn't say it's apples to oranges, but I agree the age gap should play a factor. Just because Wiggins is 19 doesn't mean he will develop a bunch of skills though.

Jabari Parker's potential development has already taken a huge hit this season due to injury.

Embiid? Not like he's getting a whole lot of run to improve either. Only a 3 year difference here, what's that say? Niko will probably have a full year of games under his belt before Embiid even hits the floor.

I agree a big age gap plays a role, but at the same time there are other factors that play a role. Some guys retire in their mid 30s, and some can make it to 40. Jabari already going down with an ACL isn't a good sign for longtivity - same goes for Embiid if he's out a full season with a back issue. Those kind of injuries can definitely cut a career short - which could make that age gap pretty irrelevant

[GopherIt!]

I think you are confusing crafty scoring moves with actual basketball skills. Dribbling. Drawing fouls. Finishing w either hand. Finishing in traffic. Screens. Posting up. Shooting off the dribble. Catch n shoot. Pick n roll. 3pt shooting. Passing. Rebounding. Defensive Rotations. Etc. etc. These are all examples of basic basketball skills. Mastering these kinds of things is what separates the Jimmy Butler's from the Michael Beasley's of the NBA world. Michael Beasley has more scoring craftiness in his pinky finger than Jimmy B does in his whole body. But craftiness by itself does not a successful NBA player make. It's mastering basic skills and learning how to utilize those skills in a system and play team basketball that leads to success.

[Unbreakable99]

Can anyone tell me what Wiggins does during the games? I can't see his games. I only can go by the box score but he hasn't put up good shooting stats the past few games. I see his other teammates shooting it more than him. Why isn't Wiggins shooting more. His shooting percentage isn't that good as well. He had 5 points on 2-8 shooting last night. Is he able to get points driving to the basket yet or does he still just stand around shooting jumpers and do his step back jump shot?

[GopherIt!]

Euro ball vs American ball
Pro vs high school
Pro vs college
6yrs pro vs 0 yrs pro
Age 23 rookie vs age 19 rookie
Virtually unknown in USA vs intense US media scrutiny since AAU ball

In 2008, Niko went pro for Real Madrid. Wiggins and Parker were still in middle school. Middle School.

In terms of climbing the NBA ladder, if that's not apples to oranges I don't know what is.

[jpengland]

Mirotic is older, yes.

But he is still learning the NBA game, he is playing in a different country and with entirely different rules/interpretations and a much different culture.

He is a highly skilled player and is putting up very, very strong advanced numbers for a 1st year International player in a logjammed front court. He has pretty much dispelled all the concerns regarding his ability to translate his game and as he gets more comfortable and his role grows he is a potential all star. He's also a fantastic team player and does the little things to win games.

Right now, the other top rookies who have played (Parker and Wiggins, and I would also say Exum) may have slightly higher ceilings but they have much, much, much lower floors.

If there was a redraft today, the only guys I would consider picking ahead of him are Parker, Embiid, Noel, Wiggins and Exum and I think I would probably draft him second after Embiid. He's currently a much, much better player than any other guy who was drafted and has room to develop further.

[Dcebucks11]

Skill has to be measured relative to age/experience.

Honestly, it is an apples to oranges situation attempting to compare a 23 yr old former European pro to three NCAA college freshmen. Four plus years is a huge chasm.

Wouldn't say it's apples to oranges, but I agree the age gap should play a factor. Just because Wiggins is 19 doesn't mean he will develop a bunch of skills though.

Jabari Parker's potential development has already taken a huge hit this season due to injury.

Embiid? Not like he's getting a whole lot of run to improve either. Only a 3 year difference here, what's that say? Niko will probably have a full year of games under his belt before Embiid even hits the floor.

I agree a big age gap plays a role, but at the same time there are other factors that play a role. Some guys retire in their mid 30s, and some can make it to 40. Jabari already going down with an ACL isn't a good sign for longtivity - same goes for Embiid if he's out a full season with a back issue. Those kind of injuries can definitely cut a career short - which could make that age gap pretty irrelevant

Not everyone who suffers a crucial injury ends up like Oden and Rose or gallanari whatever his name is .. Roses game is pretty intense, he plants very hard on his legs, i believe that's a big reason why he's suffered injuries in both legs.
There big name players off top of my head that i remember having serious injuries and coming back better like
Blake griffin missing his rookie year, and crawford, lowry, davis who tore their acl before stepping onto nba court. Rubio, Rondo, and shumpert are recent guys who have suffered acl injuries and look their normal selfs.
If you're gonna be injured I believe it's better now when you're young than later when you're actually needed.

believe me.. i like mirotic, but i'm not taking him over Embiid or parker at all.. embiid and jabari are young and have their whole future in front of him. You can learn a lot being off the court too. And Jabari has already experienced being on court.

[GimmeDat]

Mirotic obviously has a clear advantage, but the award is open to all first year players, and he fits that criteria well. No one would suggest that he's as good a prospect as Wiggins or Parker for instance, but in terms of first year production, this is Mirotic's to lose I think.

[Dcebucks11]

Mirotic is older, yes.

But he is still learning the NBA game, he is playing in a different country and with entirely different rules/interpretations and a much different culture.

He is a highly skilled player and is putting up very, very strong advanced numbers for a 1st year International player in a logjammed front court. He has pretty much dispelled all the concerns regarding his ability to translate his game and as he gets more comfortable and his role grows he is a potential all star. He's also a fantastic team player and does the little things to win games.

Right now, the other top rookies who have played (Parker and Wiggins, and I would also say Exum) may have slightly higher ceilings but they have much, much, much lower floors.

If there was a redraft today, the only guys I would consider picking ahead of him are Parker, Embiid, Noel, Wiggins and Exum and I think I would probably draft him second after Embiid. He's currently a much, much better player than any other guy who was drafted and has room to develop further.

wut? you would take mirotic no.2? really? is he an all star already?

[jpengland]

Mirotic is older, yes.

But he is still learning the NBA game, he is playing in a different country and with entirely different rules/interpretations and a much different culture.

He is a highly skilled player and is putting up very, very strong advanced numbers for a 1st year International player in a logjammed front court. He has pretty much dispelled all the concerns regarding his ability to translate his game and as he gets more comfortable and his role grows he is a potential all star. He's also a fantastic team player and does the little things to win games.

Right now, the other top rookies who have played (Parker and Wiggins, and I would also say Exum) may have slightly higher ceilings but they have much, much, much lower floors.

If there was a redraft today, the only guys I would consider picking ahead of him are Parker, Embiid, Noel, Wiggins and Exum and I think I would probably draft him second after Embiid. He's currently a much, much better player than any other guy who was drafted and has room to develop further.

wut? you would take mirotic no.2? really? is he an all star already?

No, he isn't an all star already - What does that have to do with anything?

Wiggins, Parker, Noel and Exum could be better than Mirotic, of course. But there is much smaller risk with Mirotic as he is already a very good player who will help any team in the league win Basketball games and is already capable of starting on a playoff team IMO. He's also improving with every game and has room to improve before he hits his ceiling. The others have big question marks over their abilities and progression whereas I can comfortably say that Mirotic's absoloute floor will be an impact player on a play off team whilst his ceiling is still at the all star level.

That said, I'm not saying I would definitely draft him at 2 or that there would be anything wrong with picking other guys ahead of him.

Embiid is a different kettle of fish as big men with that kind of potential to impact games is such a rarity and immediately makes you a Championship contender if he pans out.

[Kabookalu]

Really disappointed with Wiggins. If Shabazz Muhammad can get shots up, no excuse for him not to be able to.

That's not Wiggins' game though.

[MiltownHawkeye]

I seriously doubt it. Niko is projecting be a 20/10 stretch PF so he will be pretty darn good regardless of what any other rookie this year is doing at that point. He will also be winning a lot more games now and in the future.

Who is projecting him to be 20/10? Uncle Bob in Waukegan?

Any tall white forward with a good jumper that can score even a little gets projected to be the next great stretch 4 by fanboys.

Yesterday I was arguing with someone who thought that Olynyk could potentially be a 25 ppg player on 50/40/80 percentages.

[Hans Embiid]

I seriously doubt it. Niko is projecting be a 20/10 stretch PF so he will be pretty darn good regardless of what any other rookie this year is doing at that point. He will also be winning a lot more games now and in the future.

Who is projecting him to be 20/10? Uncle Bob in Waukegan?

Any tall white forward with a good jumper that can score even a little gets projected to be the next great stretch 4 by fanboys.

Yesterday I was arguing with someone who thought that Olynyk could potentially be a 25 ppg player on 50/40/80 percentages.

If you are trying to compare Kelly freaking Olynyk to Mirotic you are delusional.

[MiltownHawkeye]

Who is projecting him to be 20/10? Uncle Bob in Waukegan?

Any tall white forward with a good jumper that can score even a little gets projected to be the next great stretch 4 by fanboys.

Yesterday I was arguing with someone who thought that Olynyk could potentially be a 25 ppg player on 50/40/80 percentages.

If you are trying to compare Kelly freaking Olynyk to Mirotic you are delusional.

Yes, that is exactly what I was trying to do. Compare Kelly Olynyk directly to Nikola Mirotic.

EDIT: But hey, feel free to tell me what makes Mirotic SO much better than Olynyk.

[jpengland]

If you limit to players who have played over 150 minutes, Mirotic is 19th in WS/48 (ahead of Lebron James) and has a 1.6 VORP even when playing in a loaded front court.

The guy simply knows how to produce and is a winning basketball player.

He will be one of the top 5 PFs in the NBA no doubt in my mind.

[Hans Embiid]

I seriously doubt it. Niko is projecting be a 20/10 stretch PF so he will be pretty darn good regardless of what any other rookie this year is doing at that point. He will also be winning a lot more games now and in the future.

Who is projecting him to be 20/10? Uncle Bob in Waukegan?

It's not impossible.

PER 36 Nikola Mirotic is averaging 15.7/10.2/1.6

in his rookie season with limited touches. So yeah he could become a 20/10 guy with good defense in his 3rd or 4th season.

[Yuri Vaultin]

I think the sky is the limit for Mirotic.

[[e]]

Skill has to be measured relative to age/experience.

Honestly, it is an apples to oranges situation attempting to compare a 23 yr old former European pro to three NCAA college freshmen. Four plus years is a huge chasm.

Wouldn't say it's apples to oranges, but I agree the age gap should play a factor. Just because Wiggins is 19 doesn't mean he will develop a bunch of skills though.

Jabari Parker's potential development has already taken a huge hit this season due to injury.

Embiid? Not like he's getting a whole lot of run to improve either. Only a 3 year difference here, what's that say? Niko will probably have a full year of games under his belt before Embiid even hits the floor.

I agree a big age gap plays a role, but at the same time there are other factors that play a role. Some guys retire in their mid 30s, and some can make it to 40. Jabari already going down with an ACL isn't a good sign for longtivity - same goes for Embiid if he's out a full season with a back issue. Those kind of injuries can definitely cut a career short - which could make that age gap pretty irrelevant

Not everyone who suffers a crucial injury ends up like Oden and Rose or gallanari whatever his name is .. Roses game is pretty intense, he plants very hard on his legs, i believe that's a big reason why he's suffered injuries in both legs.
There big name players off top of my head that i remember having serious injuries and coming back better like
Blake griffin missing his rookie year, and crawford, lowry, davis who tore their acl before stepping onto nba court. Rubio, Rondo, and shumpert are recent guys who have suffered acl injuries and look their normal selfs.
If you're gonna be injured I believe it's better now when you're young than later when you're actually needed.

believe me.. i like mirotic, but i'm not taking him over Embiid or parker at all.. embiid and jabari are young and have their whole future in front of him. You can learn a lot being off the court too. And Jabari has already experienced being on court.

Comparing Rose to Oden is just wrong. Oden is done. Rose looks great physically this season, and has had games where he looks like the former MVP.

I'd disagree with you saying it's better to be injured early rather than later in your career. Think I'd rather tear my ACL right before I'm thinking of retiring, instead of tearing my ACL in my first season. Bucks are in the Playoff hunt, I'd say they "need" Jabari pretty badly right now.

I've never said I'd take Nikola over Embiid and Parker, or even Wiggins for that matter. I've claimed had he been in this draft, he would of gone top 5. But I also think Niko has shown that he's the most skilled rookie at this point.

[mksp]

I seriously doubt it. Niko is projecting be a 20/10 stretch PF so he will be pretty darn good regardless of what any other rookie this year is doing at that point. He will also be winning a lot more games now and in the future.

Who is projecting him to be 20/10? Uncle Bob in Waukegan?

Any tall white forward with a good jumper that can score even a little gets projected to be the next great stretch 4 by fanboys.

Yesterday I was arguing with someone who thought that Olynyk could potentially be a 25 ppg player on 50/40/80 percentages.

Somebody find and sign Kevin Pittsnoggle!