Eastern Conference - Gaining Respect

[ChokeFasncists]

Oh, just checked, they've been no.11 since the starting lineup change; but their ortg has changed from no.11 to 10 to the last.

They should have put Ed Davis in the starting lineup soon after the season began. Then they'd have a better balance between offense and defense.

[og15]

OKC and LAL catching up.

The Lakers are 30th in Drtg, so I'm not sure if they are catching up

Well, they have certainly improved a lot. They were one of the worst ever. Now after the lineup change, the starters are one of the worst ever offensively, but definitely not anymore defensively.

Well that's good, but 5 games is quite far away from talking about being a top 10 defensive team (because they had the Timberwolves (25th Ortg), Pacers (28th Ortg) and Kings without Cousins in 3/5 games). Maybe they'll keep it up though, but we'll need a larger spread of games to determine.

[ChokeFasncists]

The Lakers are 30th in Drtg, so I'm not sure if they are catching up

Well, they have certainly improved a lot. They were one of the worst ever. Now after the lineup change, the starters are one of the worst ever offensively, but definitely not anymore defensively.

Well that's good, but 5 games is quite far away from talking about being a top 10 defensive team (because they had the Timberwolves (25th Ortg), Pacers (28th Ortg) and Kings without Cousins in 3/5 games). Maybe they'll keep it up though, but we'll need a larger spread of games to determine.

Oh sure. I'm just saying they're getting drastically better at D and the lineup change shows their commitment to it. But since their starting point was so low, the high might not be that high afterall.

[hands11]

A little more on the Wizards offense and what affect the 3 ball has in untapped points for their offense.

They are leading the league in 3P% at .389 up from .380 last year. They hadn't shoot them at a high rate though which I explained why. Season average is 16 which is 27th in the league. But remember how they started the year ? They hardly shot any 3s. Beal was out. Rasual was new. Temple was hot for a moment but didn't shot a ton of them. Pierce wasn't shooting the 3 well to start the year either.

Now they will get Martel Webster back in about 1.5 weeks.

Martel is a green light from 3 and Wall looks for him. And now Beal is back. Rasual is hot. Peirce has warmed up. Add Wall who can make them when wide open and Otto who has the range but needs to settle in, plus Gooden as a big with range and you can see how things can vastly open up.

A big reason some of those early games were so close in score was because they were doing it 2 pts at a time. Its near impossible to get a big lead that way.

Wizards are 27th with 16 per game. Last year we were 19th with 20.8 so let say they work their way but up to that range. Thats 4.8 more attempt per game x .385 = 1.848 more made x 3 = 5.54 more pts

They are already + 4 pts in plus/minus net point over other teams. Moving to plus 9.5 would be significant. That would be 2nd in the LEAGUE

By the numbers ? They are a top 4 defense. If they end up at 2nd with plus 9.5 net pts.....

Thats a TITLE CONTENDER

The only team that would range better D and higher point spread is the one I keep saying they are most similar to ..... GSWs

[hands11]

No real games to compare tonight.

Two good teams beat two bad teams.

DAL over NY

WAS over MIN

Tonights tally.. 1-1

Wizards are now 6-1 against the West. TOR I think they are 7-1 ATL is 3-2

[Brosepher]

A little more on the Wizards offense and what affect the 3 ball has in untapped points for their offense.

They are leading the league in 3P% at .389 up from .380 last year. They hadn't shoot them at a high rate though which I explained why. Season average is 16 which is 27th in the league. But remember how they started the year ? They hardly shot any 3s. Beal was out. Rasual was new. Temple was hot for a moment but didn't shot a ton of them. Pierce wasn't shooting the 3 well to start the year either.

Now they will get Martel Webster back in about 1.5 weeks.

Martel is a green light from 3 and Wall looks for him. And now Beal is back. Rasual is hot. Peirce has warmed up. Add in Wall who can make them when wide open and Otto who has the range but needs to settle in, plus Gooden as a big with range and you can see how things can vastly open up.

A big reason some of those early games were so close in score was because they were doing it 2 pts at a time. Its near impossible to get a big lead that way.

Wizards are 27th with 16 per game. Last year we were 19th with 20.8 so let say they work their way but up to that range. Thats 4.8 more attempt per game x .385 = 1.848 more made x 3 = 5.54 more pts

They are already + 4 pts in plus/minus net point over other teams. Moving to plus 9.5 would be significant. That would be 2nd in the LEAGUE

By the numbers ? They are a top 4 defense. If they end up at 2nd with plus 9.5 net pts.....

Thats a TITLE CONTENDER

The only team that would range better D and higher point spread is the one I keep saying they are most similar to ..... GSWs

You forgot to subtract made 2's from your equation. If the team is taking more 3 point shots the trade off is 2 point attempts that do go in at a higher percentage.

4.8 more 3 attempts per game x .385 = 1.848 more made x 3 = 5.54
- 4.8 less 2 point attempts per game x .472 = 2.2656 less made x 2= 4.5
5.45 - 4.53 = .92 more points scored.

By taking more 3s wiz this model shows .92 more points per game but it doesn't factor in things like potentially getting to the free throw line less by taking more jumpers, which means getting other teams in foul trouble less also not getting into the bonus as fast.

[mtron929]

Both the Wizards & Raptors get a lot of disrespect in that they were teams that not long ago sucked.
Now they are up and coming and many teams in the East and the West are butt hurt. Both teams are deep and have a good combination of youth and experience.

When the Raptors win always a comment that the opposition team has player X out. Never hear that DeMar is out or Beal was out for Wizards. If both teams were in the West both would make the playoffs easily. Yes the Raptors are in the Atlantic but have only played rivals 3 times and yes they are 10W to 1L against under .500 teams isn't that what good teams do. Plus they are 7 & 2 against Western teams and had a healthy winning record against Western teams last year.

I am not sure how easily it would be. Right now, the Mavs are 18-8 and they are the 7th seed and the Thunder are coming strong in rounding out the top 8. You think the Wizards and the Raptors are easily better than the Mavs? Of course they're not. They would be in the fight of their lives all season to get the 8th seed.

[Silvie Lysandra]

By taking more 3s wiz this model shows .92 more points per game but it doesn't factor in things like potentially getting to the free throw line less by taking more jumpers, which means getting other teams in foul trouble less also not getting into the bonus as fast.

Depends. The Wizards take a LOT of long twos that really holds them back offensively. If we replaced those long twos than 3s (long twos have the same issue of not generating fouls), then you get a huge spike in overall efficiency.

For reference, John Wall and Kyle Lowry have very similar raw percentages but Lowry has a significantly higher TS% because he takes far more threes.

[hands11]

A little more on the Wizards offense and what affect the 3 ball has in untapped points for their offense.

They are leading the league in 3P% at .389 up from .380 last year. They hadn't shoot them at a high rate though which I explained why. Season average is 16 which is 27th in the league. But remember how they started the year ? They hardly shot any 3s. Beal was out. Rasual was new. Temple was hot for a moment but didn't shot a ton of them. Pierce wasn't shooting the 3 well to start the year either.

Now they will get Martel Webster back in about 1.5 weeks.

Martel is a green light from 3 and Wall looks for him. And now Beal is back. Rasual is hot. Peirce has warmed up. Add in Wall who can make them when wide open and Otto who has the range but needs to settle in, plus Gooden as a big with range and you can see how things can vastly open up.

A big reason some of those early games were so close in score was because they were doing it 2 pts at a time. Its near impossible to get a big lead that way.

Wizards are 27th with 16 per game. Last year we were 19th with 20.8 so let say they work their way but up to that range. Thats 4.8 more attempt per game x .385 = 1.848 more made x 3 = 5.54 more pts

They are already + 4 pts in plus/minus net point over other teams. Moving to plus 9.5 would be significant. That would be 2nd in the LEAGUE

By the numbers ? They are a top 4 defense. If they end up at 2nd with plus 9.5 net pts.....

Thats a TITLE CONTENDER

The only team that would range better D and higher point spread is the one I keep saying they are most similar to ..... GSWs

You forgot to subtract made 2's from your equation. If the team is taking more 3 point shots the trade off is 2 point attempts that do go in at a higher percentage.

4.8 more 3 attempts per game x .385 = 1.848 more made x 3 = 5.54
- 4.8 less 2 point attempts per game x .472 = 2.2656 less made x 2= 4.5
5.45 - 4.53 = .92 more points scored.

By taking more 3s wiz this model shows .92 more points per game but it doesn't factor in things like potentially getting to the free throw line less by taking more jumpers, which means getting other teams in foul trouble less also not getting into the bonus as fast.

I have no problem with people challanging my logic. You make a valid point. I counted that up incorrectly. I can't just take all the 3s as added points without subtracting. Its the net that counts. Per review is a good thing. Thanks.

That said, they are now at plus +4.5, not + 4.0, and Webster isn't even back yet.

Its a moving target. My general point still stands. They haven't peaked and they are about to add another great shooter who happens to also be a great team player. That is only going to open up the options.

Personally, I am enjoying what TOR is doing and have no problem being in 2nd place. I hope TOR keeps winning. We are pushing them and they are pulling us. Kind of like NASCAR car drafting.

East Coast Basketball - Gaining Respect

[hands11]

By taking more 3s wiz this model shows .92 more points per game but it doesn't factor in things like potentially getting to the free throw line less by taking more jumpers, which means getting other teams in foul trouble less also not getting into the bonus as fast.

Depends. The Wizards take a LOT of long twos that really holds them back offensively. If we replaced those long twos than 3s (long twos have the same issue of not generating fouls), then you get a huge spike in overall efficiency.

For reference, John Wall and Kyle Lowry have very similar raw percentages but Lowry has a significantly higher TS% because he takes far more threes.

I don't believe they take a lot of long 2 anymore. Last year, yes.

Do you have data to support that they still do that ?

They do take mid range shots, but not seeing a lot of long 2s anymore. I think that is a old narrative that might be outdated.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2F80HlmBSM[/youtube]

[Chuck Everett]

The Wizards have played 15 home games and 9 road. Let's see them go on a road trip. Seems like every time I watch them they have a home game.

[hands11]

The Wizards have played 15 home games and 9 road. Let's see them go on a road trip. Seems like every time I watch them they have a home game.

Looking forward to it. No doubt a favorable schedule so far but they are ready do go on the road.

Last year, they had a good road record for a 44 win team. 22-19 on the road.

Same road record as

MIA
TOR

Better the IND and HOU

One less then Clipper and Portland.

There road record wasn't the issue last year. It was their home record and they seem to have addressed that.

[hands11]

Clean sweep last night.

MIL played POR tough but lost it in the 4th ... 104-97 in POR. vet teams do that to young teams. MIL showed well
LAC over IND in LA..102-100 ... wow. that shouldnt have been that close
UT over MIA in MIA... no Bosh.. MIA is to thin to win much without both Wade and Bosh out there
DAL over DET.. yeah..DET sucks. they are 5-21
SUN over CHA was a decent match up. Suns win it. 111-106 .. but CHA is just 6-19

POR, LAC, DAL, SUN should win those games. The fact POR and LAC games where that close is respectable.

UT over MIA with no Bosh.. I can see that. Utah has some young talent and that can be tough for team with some older players. Good win for UT.

That said.. Both ATL and TOR won again. Top of the East is looking tough with

TOR, WAS, ATL, CHI.... CLE ? They still haven't put it together and lost to ATL badly. MIL showed well again POR

[tsherkin]

Wall has turned it on. He is a strong, fast 6-4 PG that is now playing glove committed defense. He is now as focused if not more on his defense as he is on his 10.3 ast/game. He is exactly the type of PG I always valued the most. Two ways. Pass first. And lock down defense. From there, score as your team needs you to.

I have a good deal of respect for every aspect of Wall's game apart from his scoring ability, and even there, he does a better job than someone like Rondo. Between his average-ish overall statistical impact as an offensive player and the utility of his obviously-strong playmaking coupled with his defense, he's pretty clearly a very valuable player. I think that one or two other guys who play really strong complementary offense would really change the tone of the team. Beal may end up being that guy, since he's essentially pre-2015 explosion Klay Thompson in terms of his low draw rate, high 3P% play but low ORTG. They still need something else besides that, and if it isn't Wall improving as a scorer, then it's got to be someone else stepping up. That's kind of what I'm waiting to see happen before I really put stock into Washington as a credible threat to do much more than threaten a second-round appearance.


I will not, however, be terribly disappointed if I lose this bet. As I said before, I like seeing talent out, and I prefer seeing quality basketball than to being right. If Washington surpasses my projection, I will be happy about it.

[PimpHandStrong]

Clean sweep last night.

West now 100-48 against the East.

[Nate505]

Clean sweep last night.

West now 100-48 against the East.

Respect yo!

[JB1089]

Wait a second....someone's trying to push Washington and Atlanta as title contenders? Um....no. And I'll remain skeptical of Toronto until at least the All-Star break. And they were questioning Memphis? MEMPHIS! (Who did go on to beat Golden St., btw)

I count 8 contenders in the West: wouldn't be surprised if any of them made it to the finals (the top 7 and OKC).

The East has Toronto(?) and 2 conditionals: Chicago (if Rose can remain healthy) and Cleveland (if/when they figure out how to play defense).


I watch the games and can't help but feel that teams like New Orleans and Phoenix are top 4-5 teams in the East. That's indicative of an enormous disparity.

[hands11]

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400578681

Bulls take down MEM who is one of the hottest team in the West.

WAS and TOR still rolling

CAV nibble a win over BRK

Top of the East is shaping up.

6-8 is still looking soft but

MIL lost Parker. Thats going to be tough for a young team
IND no Paul George and tons of other injuries
MIA no Bosh and they were rebuilding this year and thin but Wade is looking real good.

NY should look better next year. IND will be back. MIL another year more mature. MIA will add pieces. And PHI will be done tanking this year.

CHA has some pieces. I think they will start to make a run if MGK can stay healthy.

The top looks good and the 2nd level is a year away from looking a lot tougher.

[Illmatic12]

Wait a second....someone's trying to push Washington and Atlanta as title contenders? Um....no. And I'll remain skeptical of Toronto until at least the All-Star break. And they were questioning Memphis? MEMPHIS! (Who did go on to beat Golden St., btw)

I count 8 contenders in the West: wouldn't be surprised if any of them made it to the finals (the top 7 and OKC).

The East has Toronto(?) and 2 conditionals: Chicago (if Rose can remain healthy) and Cleveland (if/when they figure out how to play defense).


I watch the games and can't help but feel that teams like New Orleans and Phoenix are top 4-5 teams in the East. That's indicative of an enormous disparity.

Dude.. Phoenix just lost to the Heat, Pistons, Bucks in a recent stretch and barely beat the Hornets. New Orleans outside of Davis is trash.. one of the worst defensive squads in the league, no bench, poorly assembled roster with poor coaching.

Have you actually been following the games this year or just going off of your impressions from last year? There is a disparity, yes, but it isn't as enormous as you're imagining it to be.

[HawaiianJazzFan]

[quote="hands11"]http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400578681

Bulls take down MEM who is one of the hottest team in the West.

WAS and TOR still rolling

CAV nibble a win over BRK

Top of the East is shaping up.

6-8 is still looking soft but

MIL lost Parker. Thats going to be tough for a young team
IND no Paul George and tons of other injuries
MIA no Bosh and they were rebuilding this year and thin but Wade is looking real good.

NY should look better next year. IND will be back. MIL another year more mature. MIA will add pieces. And PHI will be done tanking this year.

CHA has some pieces. I think they will start to make a run if MGK can stay healthy.

The top looks good and the 2nd level is a year away from looking a lot tougher.[/quote]

You forgot to mention the Jazz beating the Magic yesterday.

You see, you are right, there are teams in the East at the 2nd level that are going to get better... but people are forgetting that the West is the same. Sacramento is a young team currently out of the playoffs who's only going to get better with one of the most dominant big men. The Pelicans have a 21 year old beast who has as much potential as any player in the NBA maybe ever, they just need to change a few pieces. The Timberwolves have one of the best young cores when they are healthy and certainly next year with Rubio, Pekovic, Wiggins, Kmart, Dieng, Shabazz playing more than 8 games together could be scary good. Even teams like the Suns, the average player on the suns has 3.1 years of experience (the same as the Sixers) which is 2nd fewest only to Utah who is at 2.3, just need to change a few pieces. ***Homer Alert*** Even Utah who has less experience than any team in the league, has one of the best young front courts (average age of 22.7) in the NBA. Favors has a PER of 23, Gobert 21.4, Hayward 20, Kanter 19 (still own the rights to Ante Tomic as well). All they really need is for their Backcourt to improve, which could still happen considering that they are even younger than our front court.