The 2011 NBA draft. How did GMs get it so wrong?

[Xsy]

I still remember the draft as it was right now.

SAC got Jimmer simply because he was a sexy pick to sell tickets. Pathetic management seriously.

I was so happy that Sacramento picked Jimmer before Utah even had the chance to.

[HawaiianJazzFan]

Anyone notice how many Seniors and Juniors were picked near the bottom and how the top is almost full of Freshman and sophomores?? I wouldn't have noticed that if it hadn't been posted.

[DWadeno3]

The draft is a crap shoot because ultimately, too many factors that can't be properly predicted play a role into whether a player has a successful NBA career or not.

explain Bryan Colangelos draft record

Didn't he pick DeMar DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani?

[noobcake]

Irving - Consensus #1 pick had Williamstans had not overhyped their man.
Williams - Tweener issues
Kanter - 22 year old big averaging 14/7 in 31 minutes. I think he is decent.
Thompson - Highly athletic, low skilled player. His O hasn't developed much in the league. I think it's a developmental issue for him.
Jonas V - 12/9 in 29 minutes at age 22. Raptors fans have been telling me he is a franchise player for years. He has promise.
Vesely - off the chart athleticism got him drafted + inadequate European scouting
Biyombo - raw African prospect. Had some fake age issues.
Knight - low IQ chucker. He is not bad, but I don't know if he can contribute to a winning team.
Walker - considering his draft position, I think Walker turned out pretty well.
Fredette - High scoring white player like McDermott...we are still looking for that great white hope...

Thompson - no one thought his shooting was this elite. Might be the most overrated defensive player in the league though
Leonard - 25 in, 32 in max vert. Not really explosive or particularly quick either. His wingspan is massive though. I maintain that he is a systems player. Spurs have great player development.
Vuvevic - European prospects. Scouting difficult.
Harris - I have never seen him play basketball.
Faried - Was he actually that good? I would say he is only slightly over-performing his draft position.
Mirotic - European prospects. Scouting difficult.
Butler - 99 percentile player development like Paul George. Unlikely to happen again.
Parsons - 4 year player.
Thomas - dude is 5'9" without shoes.

[baki]

- Derrick Williams was great in college but was a prototype NBA tweener. e.g. Michael Beasley.
- Jan Vesely was overrated as a prospect because he was a great athlete for a European. But in reality, athleticism without substance means nothing.
- Bismack Biyombo was a project pick. It's not rare to see lengthy African bigs who have defensive potential completely bust.
- Jimmer Fredette was a huge name in college and his shot-making was thought to translate.

- Klay Thompson didn't look athletic, strong or quick enough in college and had zero defense. He developed his defensive skills in the NBA and showed that he was more athletic than scouts believed he was.
- Kawhi Leonard is pretty simple as well. Before he became a household name with the Finals, he was mentioned as a 3&D guy. Well, he was neither in college. He was a mid-range shooter with limited range and couldn't use his athleticism and length effectively on defense. He was a solid player which justified his position on the draft.
- Nikola Vucevic was thought to become someone along the likes of Mehmet Okur. He was considered to be a stretch player. He wasn't thought to be a player who could get buckets in the post because he lacked athleticism and quickness. He's not actually vastly different from what scouts thought he'd be like, but he polished his strengths quickly in the league.
- Tobias Harris, who the OP did not mention, was considered a complete tweener. Not big enough to play 4, not quick enough to play 3. While he IS still a tweener defensively, he looks quicker than he did in college.
- Kenneth Faried was a rich man's Reggie Evans. He was an incredible rebounder and an high energy guy. He actually hasn't changed all that much but his energy made up for his undersizedness in the league.
- Nikola Mirotic. Pretty justified spot for him considering he was expected to stay in Europe for a while, which he did. The reason why he looks as good as he does now is the time he spent with Real Madrid. Originally considered a perimeter player, he turned into a full-fledged power forward there.
- Jimmy Butler was not mind-blowing as a senior. He's the quintessential late bloomer. He was a jack of all trades, master of none in college. Improved his jump shot drastically and proved that he was a better athlete than he was given credit for.
- Chandler Parsons is pretty wild. He was already a great all-arounder in Florida. The thing with him was that he wasn't considered a great athlete and was a weak defender. He looks way more athletic in NBA than he did in college.
- Isaiah Thomas. One word: Height.

Well said.

It goes to say that if you're well hype you get to be picked first.

[King Ken]

Irving - Consensus #1 pick had Williamstans had not overhyped their man.
Williams - Tweener issues
Kanter - 22 year old big averaging 14/7 in 31 minutes. I think he is decent.
Thompson - Highly athletic, low skilled player. His O hasn't developed much in the league. I think it's a developmental issue for him.
Jonas V - 12/9 in 29 minutes at age 22. Raptors fans have been telling me he is a franchise player for years. He has promise.
Vesely - off the chart athleticism got him drafted + inadequate European scouting
Biyombo - raw African prospect. Had some fake age issues.
Knight - low IQ chucker. He is not bad, but I don't know if he can contribute to a winning team.
Walker - considering his draft position, I think Walker turned out pretty well.
Fredette - High scoring white player like McDermott...we are still looking for that great white hope...

Thompson - no one thought his shooting was this elite. Might be the most overrated defensive player in the league though
Leonard - 25 in, 32 in max vert. Not really explosive or particularly quick either. His wingspan is massive though. I maintain that he is a systems player. Spurs have great player development.
Vuvevic - European prospects. Scouting difficult.
Harris - I have never seen him play basketball.
Faried - Was he actually that good? I would say he is only slightly over-performing his draft position.
Mirotic - European prospects. Scouting difficult.
Butler - 99 percentile player development like Paul George. Unlikely to happen again.
Parsons - 4 year player.
Thomas - dude is 5'9" without shoes.

Vucevic played at USC for three years. He was americanized.
Some of what you wrote is accurate. I agree with Leonard and Butler. Player development. You place those two on the Cavs or something and they would be considered worse than MKG today if not much worse.

[Uncle Mxy]

Knight was considered Top 5 or so for most of the time -- the next great PG from Kentucky. I think the Pistons were as surprised as anyone when he was an option for them at #8. A lot of folks expected Biyombo.

[Q C]

fun fact: Bismack Biyombo destroying all other Charlotte players that play regular minutes in all +/- and advanced stats http://www.82games.com/1415/1415CHA.HTM http://www.82games.com/1415/1415CHA1.HTM

pretty sure he is going to be a project that pays off for Charlotte. they should be able to lock him up to a reasonable deal and spend that expiring Al Jefferson money on scorers and have a nice uptempo team with defensive stat stuffing Biyombo

[Chuck Everett]

Vucevic to me was easily scouted. I think the issue is, he came out of nowhere to become really good. Even as a college player it wasn't until his junior year where he really broke out. Then he turned pro.

[joediamond]

The draft is a crap shoot because ultimately, too many factors that can't be properly predicted play a role into whether a player has a successful NBA career or not.

explain Bryan Colangelos draft record

Didn't he pick DeMar DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani?

and michael finley, ross, valanciunas, steve nash, stephen jackson, shawn marion, amare stoudemire, loul deng, nate robinson, marcin gortat, and ed davis.

[gordeng]

Anyone notice how many Seniors and Juniors were picked near the bottom and how the top is almost full of Freshman and sophomores?? I wouldn't have noticed that if it hadn't been posted.

I've noticed this for a while now. Being Sr/Jr/So clearly isn't a negative going into the NBA. Some of the them clearly surpassed their "ceiling" or have low "potential" because the concept of a "ceiling" or a "potential" is so stupid.

[Ballerhogger]

Derrick Williams pretty much a bust
. Jimmer fredette as well

[GYK]

If you look at drafts labeled weak it's like this. Later picks are the more productive player.
I believe the reasoning is your now looking at guys with potential. Even adding potential to your assessment for them. You look at the top it's projects. The bottom are all have a skillset that was already in place.

[KrazyP]

If you look at drafts labeled weak it's like this. Later picks are the more productive player.
I believe the reasoning is your now looking at guys with potential. Even adding potential to your assessment for them. You look at the top it's projects. The bottom are all have a skillset that was already in place.

Agreed and I will also add the 2nd half of the draft usually consists of teams that are better run and better at developing players than the crap teams in the lottery. The draft is a total crapshoot....especially in a draft thats considered weak overall and without any consensus at the top.

[dc]

I still remember the draft as it was right now.

SAC got Jimmer simply because he was a sexy pick to sell tickets. Pathetic management seriously. Everyone knew that he would have a hard time do adjust to the NBA as a 6'2 SG.

That draft was absolutely disastrous for the Kings if we discount the Thomas pick

SAC traded down 3 spots in the draft for John freaking Salmons.

Jimmer was closer to 6' than he was 6'2". I mean, if you're gonna call Jimmer 6'2", then you can call Curry 6'4". If he was a little bit taller, he'd have an easier time getting his shot off.

I think the real disastrous thing about the Jimmer pick is he essentially made the Kings not draft Damien Lillard the following season. Yeah, you can talk about them wanting to take Thomas Robinson as insurance in case they lost Jason Thompson in free agency (which BTW, is an even worse rationale for that pick), but if they hadn't still been semi-invested in Jimmer at that point, it's hard to believe they would've passed on Lillard.

Lillard and Cousins right now would be a pretty lethal combo and Sac would be a Top 4 team in the west.

[Saints14]

Was Jimmer really a much different prospect than Steph Curry? Some guys just don't pan out.

[jangles86]

Your top 10:
Round Pick Player Position Nationality[n 1] Team School/club team
1 1 Kyrie Irving+ PG United States[n 2] Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers)[a] Duke (Fr.)
1 2 Derrick Williams SF/PF United States Minnesota Timberwolves Arizona (So.)
1 3 Enes Kanter C Turkey[n 3] Utah Jazz (from New Jersey)[b] Kentucky (Fr.)[n 4]
1 4 Tristan Thompson PF Canada Cleveland Cavaliers Texas (Fr.)
1 5 Jonas Valančiūnas C Lithuania Toronto Raptors[c] Lietuvos Rytas (Lithuania)
1 6 Jan Veselý PF Czech Republic Washington Wizards Partizan (Serbia)
1 7 Bismack Biyombo C DR Congo Sacramento Kings (traded to Charlotte)[A] Fuenlabrada (Spain)
1 8 Brandon Knight PG United States Detroit Pistons Kentucky (Fr.)
1 9 Kemba Walker PG United States Charlotte Bobcats Connecticut (Jr.)
1 10 Jimmer Fredette PG/SG United States Milwaukee Bucks (traded to Sacramento)[A] BYU (Sr.)

Now, players taken outside the top 10:
1 11 Klay Thompson SG United States Golden State Warriors Washington State (Jr.)
1 15 Kawhi Leonard SF United States Indiana Pacers (traded to San Antonio)[B] San Diego State (So.)
1 16 Nikola Vučević C Montenegro[n 5] Philadelphia 76ers USC (Jr.)
1 19 Tobias Harris SF United States Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans via Portland,[e] traded
1 22 Kenneth Faried PF United States Denver Nuggets Morehead State (Sr.)
1 23 Nikola Mirotić PF Spain[n 6] traded to Chicago via Minnesota)[C][D] Real Madrid (Spain)
1 30 Jimmy Butler SG United States Chicago Bulls Marquette (Sr.)
2 38 Chandler Parsons SF United States Houston Rockets (from L.A. Clippers)[l][C] Florida (Sr.)
2 60 Isaiah Thomas PG United States Sacramento Kings (from Chicago via Milwaukee)[t] Washington (Jr.)

How did GMs screw it up so bad? Or was it simply luck?

Not shocked. I didn't like that draft at the top and saw how team would blow it with DW up there. And I know Jimmer Fredette's game wouldn't translate. That was a set up. Just to good in college for someone to pass up but you have to. No way would his game translate. And Ves.. Oh Ves.. Looked like a great running mate for Wall but kid couldn't fit a FT to save his life. He actually has good BBIQ regarding seeing the court. But lacking shooting skills and was moved from SF to PF then to PF/C on a rebuilding team where vets arrived and he rotted on the bench. Account for how much of a star he was over seas before coming here, the language and culture change and it was all just to much. So off to Denver he went where he played pretty well but then he was a UFA and signed back over seas where basketball would be fun for him again. If he develops some more skills ( he works at it ) he might be back in 2 years. He was a swing for the fences pick that didn't work out. Would have been a better pick later in the first. And would have been better if he landed on a more established team. Wizards was a terrible place for him to land. To much change going on.

Also, you might want to add Markieff Morris to the list.

My interest for the Wizards that year was mostly around..

1 16 Nikola Vučević C Montenegro[n 5] Philadelphia 76ers USC (Jr.)
1 19 Tobias Harris SF United States Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans via Portland,[e] traded

and Morris.

But I'm ok with how the team has turned out anyway.

I remember hearing the wizards were really interested in Enes Kanter but never fell to our pick. So it become a choice between Jan Vesely and Kahwai Leonard. And man what a terrible terrible choice Grunfeld made.

[geminiz]

What are you talking about? Thompson is having a better year than Valanciunas. According to RPM it's not even close.

Uhh you know I'm talking about Tristan Thompson right? Not Klay

I'm saying the Cavs made a dumb decision by taking T Thompson over JV.

According to Real Plus Minus, which is as good a single number stat as any, Tristan Thompson has been the 58th best player this year. Valanciunas ranks 189th.

Wow this guy was actually serious

[GimmeDat]

Yeah not here to gloat, especially considering the Bulls have basically busted on their 2 picks since (Marquis Teague and Tony Snell), not to mention McDermott was in struggle town so far this season before the injury, but the Bulls must be the biggest winners in this draft class.

Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic are two core pieces, both taken well outside the lottery. Obviously we waited several years for Mirotic so it's not quite so straightforward, but we're definitely reaping the rewards now.

Funnily enough, at the time of the draft, a lot of our board was livid that we didn't draft MarShon Brooks instead, definitely looks silly in retrospect

[deepeeenn]

Vucevic to me was easily scouted. I think the issue is, he came out of nowhere to become really good. Even as a college player it wasn't until his junior year where he really broke out. Then he turned pro.

Yeah I remember it being a surprise that he declared. Lot ppl thought he wasn't good enough as a slow footed 3 pt shooting big.