Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%)

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Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#1 » by Game6 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:52 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/560207811779756034[/tweet]
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#2 » by TroutMVP » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:07 am

Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#3 » by walk with me » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:07 am

i don't know but I can't think of any teams that really DEFEND their home court this year ferociously.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#4 » by TroutMVP » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:09 am

walk with me wrote:i don't know but I can't think of any teams that really DEFEND their home court this year ferociously.


Lul, what about the Warriors being 21-1 at home and the Hawks being 20-3 at home? That isn't ferocious?
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#5 » by Knosh » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:12 am

TroutMVP wrote:Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.


What's the connection between parity and home court advantage though?
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Post#6 » by Rasheeed!!! » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:12 am

Very even teams apart from a few outliers. Makes for exciting basketball because most games a likely to be competitive.

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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#7 » by soda » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:14 am

Right, the warriors lost an early November home game to the spurs, and that's been it. At 21-1, the warriors have already clinched a winning home record for the 2014-15 regular season, and Atlanta will do the same with their next home win.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#8 » by TroutMVP » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:20 am

Knosh wrote:
TroutMVP wrote:Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.


What's the connection between parity and home court advantage though?


It's hard to explain I think. You either understand or you don't. Basically, if there's more wins popping up in random places, because a lot of teams are pretty solid, then randomly a lot of those random wins will be road teams randomly beating home teams.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#9 » by rpa » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:21 am

TroutMVP wrote:Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.


I doubt parity has much to do with it. With extreme parity you'd expect the deciding factor to be home court advantage.

If anything I'd say it's the opposite: the lack of parity. Last year Milwaukee and Philly were the only teams that won less than 14 home games--they won 10 each. If you take out the Lakers then no team other than those 3 won less than 16.

This year, however, Minnesota & Philly are on pace for a whopping 6 (SIX!) wins at home. Other notables under last years 14 number: NYK (9), LAL (11), ORL (10), DET (13).

It's not parity--it's the fact that there are more horrible teams this year that can't even win consistently on their home court.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#10 » by kodo » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:23 am

Knosh wrote:
TroutMVP wrote:Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.


What's the connection between parity and home court advantage though?


I was wondering the same thing.

I would think the opposite, the fact that teams aren't winning much at home means that the league is at its greatest point of non-parity, because when two teams are equal the home team will win.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#11 » by RoyalMajesty » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:26 am

walk with me wrote:i don't know but I can't think of any teams that really DEFEND their home court this year ferociously.


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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#12 » by amcfad27 » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:26 am

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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#13 » by Prince12 » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:27 am

I would've thought when two teams are even the home court advantage is nullified. The crowd is a factor but with all the travel involved in the schedule often coming home isn't neccessarily a break as you may have just flown in or about to leave anyway.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#14 » by Knosh » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:30 am

TroutMVP wrote:
Knosh wrote:
TroutMVP wrote:Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.


What's the connection between parity and home court advantage though?


It's hard to explain I think. You either understand or you don't. Basically, if there's more wins popping up in random places, because a lot of teams are pretty solid, then randomly a lot of those random wins will be road teams randomly beating home teams.


Yeah that sounds hard to explain. And I definitely don't unterstand it. Sounds randomly random to me.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#15 » by Knosh » Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:39 am

kodo wrote:
Knosh wrote:
TroutMVP wrote:Chalk it up to incredible parity. How often are the 2 seed and 8 seed separated by only eight losses? In the East, it's a little different though. The 2 and 8 seeds are separated by eleven losses.

Ignoring outlier teams - Warriors, Hawks, Lakers, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers - every team is somewhere in the range of 32 and 15 wins.


What's the connection between parity and home court advantage though?


I was wondering the same thing.

I would think the opposite, the fact that teams aren't winning much at home means that the league is at its greatest point of non-parity, because when two teams are equal the home team will win.


I don't know, parity to me means teams have equal chances to win at a neutral site. Home court advantage seems to be complety unrelated to that. You can have complete parity with absolutely no HCA. So basically every arena is like a neutral site, 50/50 chance to win. Or you can have complete parity with an absolute HCA. Basically every team wins every game at home and loses every game on the road.
Don't see a causal connection between the two.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#16 » by andyhop » Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:44 am

Did Lowe mention the APBR thread that he got this all from or does he just pretend he thought of it himself?
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#17 » by Chuck Everett » Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:17 am

The real answer is because there are WAY MORE back to backs due to the extension of the all-star break. This was precisely why I didn't want it extended just so Lebron can do media requests. It's like 99% of the league doesn't have these requirements (and he could easily decline them), so we have to suffer through more back to backs for one dude. Seemed like a change that didn't actually need to happen.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#18 » by Knosh » Wed Jan 28, 2015 5:28 am

Chuck Everett wrote:The real answer is because there are WAY MORE back to backs due to the extension of the all-star break. This was precisely why I didn't want it extended just so Lebron can do media requests. It's like 99% of the league doesn't have these requirements (and he could easily decline them), so we have to suffer through more back to backs for one dude. Seemed like a change that didn't actually need to happen.


578 B2Bs this season vs. 560 last season. But home B2Bs are actually down from 176 last season to 171 this season.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#19 » by DavidSterned » Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:35 am

6 games on Tuesday and the home team lost every single one. Kinda nuts.
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Re: Lowe: Home Teams Winning Games At Lowest Rate In NBA History (53.5%) 

Post#20 » by miltk » Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:04 am

it's called parity

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