Cavs chances against Chicago?

[Birdie]

LBJ's mid-range game this past month is what concerns me about the Cavs chances against the Bulls. With Love out, I think LBJ will go more into hero-ball mode in the series and with the Bulls packing in the paint cutting off LBJ driving lanes, he'll settle for his 20ft wing shots with the Bulls hoping to turn him into a bail out shot clock drained mid range jump shooter.

Thanks to the magic of NBA stats on LBJ's shot charts, here's LBJ's last 20 regular season games played shot chart:
20 Games - Mid-Range Shots: 17/52 32.7FG% 3PT% 39/97 40.2%


Here's the Boston series:
4 Games - Mid-Range Shots: 9/23 39.1FG% 3PT% 4/20 20%


Now the #'s compared to his 4 year playoff run in Miami:

2015 - 4 Games - 9/23 39.1% 3PT% 4/20 20.0%
2015 - 20 Games - 17/52 32.7% 3PT% 39/97 40.2%
2014 - 20 Games - 28/67 41.8% 3PT% 35/86 40.7%
2013 - 23 Games - 33/76 43.4% 3PT% 36/95 37.9%
2012 - 23 Games - 31/93 33.3% 3PT% 22/85 25.9%
2011 - 21 Games - 31/82 37.8% 3PT% 30/85 35.3%

If one thing you can take away from the stats, it's crazy how consistent LBJ has been in the volume of his shots from mid-range year to year. It's obvious that his terrible mid-range % is offset by him shooting 60-75% inside the restricted area.

[whonka]

Despite the injuries Cavs are a clear favourite for mine. Shut down Butler, and or Pau, and you've shut down Chicago. Rose is a shell of his former self, and you want him to shoot plenty of 3's. So pack the paint, lock down on Butler and make Rose become a shooter.

Agreed. Meanwhile on the flip side, shut down Lebron and Kyrie and you've shut down Cavs.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

Bucks are also a top 5 defensive team in the league. They are doubling every time Pau gets the ball on the post.

Cleveland doesn't have the defense Milwaukee does. Obviously Cavs are a top tier offensive team, but losing Love hurts that quite a bit.

Yeah gasol hasn't played well this playoffs. If Cavs get regular season pau then Bulls in 6.

He hasn't played poorly either. He's being doubled every time so his chances have been way down.

13.5 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2.8 blocks is what he's done over the 4 games. Double doubles in each game. He can do more on the offensive end if he isn't getting doubled every time. The rebounding has been there, and he's done well on the defensive end too.

The Bucks aren't a big team, they're only playing a true center 21.6 mpg, and they only bring 1 big man off the bench, yet the Bulls 4/5s are playing terrible. They're going to need that to change, as I can't see Rose, Butler and Dunleavy being dominant enough to win it on their own like they have vs the Bucks.

[Sebastian]

It feels very strange to see the Bulls play LeBron in the postseason at a health advantage. In 2011 Asik broke his leg and Rose was on a bum ankle. Obviously 2 years ago Rose was out. I guess it's a weird form of basketball karma for the tables to turn like this, but as a fan it really sucks. Heat/Bulls looked like it was going to be a great rivalry. Didn't work out because of injuries. LeBron went back to Cleveland and Cavs/Bulls looked like it was going to be a great rivalry. Injuries again.

Before today I would have said Cavs in 6 or 7, but now I think it's a coin flip series. Bulls in 6 or Cavs in 7. Hopefully Love is back for the last game or two.

[Birdie]

It feels very strange to see the Bulls play LeBron in the postseason at a health advantage. In 2011 Asik broke his leg and Rose was on a bum ankle. Obviously 2 years ago Rose was out. I guess it's a weird form of basketball karma for the tables to turn like this, but as a fan it really sucks. Heat/Bulls looked like it was going to be a great rivalry. Didn't work out because of injuries. LeBron went back to Cleveland and Cavs/Bulls looked like it was going to be a great rivalry. Injuries again.

Before today I would have said Cavs in 6 or 7, but now I think it's a coin flip series. Bulls in 6 or Cavs in 7. Hopefully Love is back for the last game or two.

I hear ya on the rivalries. Just missed opportunities to see great players take each other on. I just hope they don't rush back Love for the sake of trying to salvage something and risk long-term damage. I'd rather shut him down than risk anything. I recall AD reaggravated his shoulder woes against Hassan Goatside mid-season by just bumping into him with his shoulder and went straight to the lockerroom. Grant it, he didn't miss A LOT of time with his shoulder issue but I find it hard to believe that 2,3,4 weeks is proper recovery time even with all the rehab therapy he'll probably go through.

[Pnjguy]

Even if Love does come back in game 5, what makes people believe he's even going to be a factor after missing two weeks and a dislocated shoulder? This sucks for the Cavs, but they still have a chance.

[OsuCavsfan103]

Fortunately it's his left arm at least not his shooting arm. I actually think with a bit of rest, ice, and then eventually some adrenaline and cortisol shots, he could be back by game 2 or 3.

[NBAfan3024]

Could JR miss that many? If love misses more than 2 games then yeah cavs could be in trouble

[GimmeDat]

I thought JR/Love would only be out a game or two?

I would say that with healthy rosters, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the Cavs, mostly because of the LeBron factor, but it really does look to be a tight series. As for our Bulls, it's hard to know what to expect, on a good night I'm supremely confident in them, but there's a lot of issues they're still working through as a team which lead them to underwhelming performances.

The loss of those two in any given game is a blow, but it's not a critical one, they're complimentary pieces that can have big games and quiet ones; we know Cleveland can win without them being big factors, but it definitely doesn't help having the absent.

[NBAfan3024]

Windhorst thinks two weeks for love.

[KazuoOda]

Cavs in 5 no matter how many games Love and JR miss.

[kodo]

Shoulder dislocation recovery can be extremely variable.

But 2-3 games is VERY optimistic. Let's remember this isn't a sprain or rolling your ankle, your ******** arm is pulled apart from the body and held there by muscle & skin. This is major trauma to the body.

http://www.fearthesword.com/2015/4/26/8500947/how-worried-should-we-be-about-kevin-loves-shoulder-injury

So how long is Love likely to be out?

That'll depend on the extent of the damage, and how safe the Cavs want to play it. If there's labral or neurovascular damage, the rehab will be prolonged, such as was the case for Nelson and Elton Brand in 2008. If it's something like Iman Shumpert suffered earlier this season, where there was no significant structural damage but a lot of weakness, we can expect a 4-6 week recovery period, especially because I'm assuming Love is a first-time dislocator (No previous injury in the NBA, at least), and the Cavs would want to play it safe to ensure Love doesn't have a second dislocation at a later date.

Further, other structures of the shoulder could be affected. Nerves and arteries in the area can be stretched during the injury event, and can also get pinched in the joint upon relocation. This obviously has long-term negative affects on proper function of these structures. The labrum of the shoulder can also be injured during a dislocation, and this requires surgical repair, which prolongs the recovery process. This is what happened to Jameer Nelson in the 2008-2009 season, when he dislocated his shoulder and missed 54 games due to the associated labral tear.

[JB2]

the greatness is Kyrie is going have it's coming out party this series IMO. Either way it's going to be a tough battle for Cavs but I predict Kyrie putting his name as a top 3 PG after this series.

[Side beard]

welp, just like that comment at the bottom i definitely won't be watching game 1 on may 2

as far as the topic goes, i think it's going to be a very tough and more closely competitive series

Potential Game 7 of LAC vs Spurs, Mayweather/Pacman, Game 1 of EC Semi's. Poor NBA scheduling.

Though I hope, I hope, the fight doesn't end early with some stupid chicanery like PacMan low blowing or Mayweather bites Pac's ear off or someone gets knocked out in 1-2 rds. I want a freaking brawl for 10 rds with punches flailing like back in the day Pacman and some of his bouts.

That chicken fight won't last long.

[G I N T]

Cavs have no chance against the Bulls and will be going home in round 2. They will not recover from this devastating blow.

[kingkirk]

Not sure why people are writing off the Cavs. I fear the Cavs with Lebron at full time PF than i do with Love there. Lebron's best position is at PF. It forces Chicago to go smaller. With Noah being terrible in the playoffs, you can't have him on the floor against a small ball unit Cavs.

Irving, Shumpert, Jones, James & Mozgov.

That's the ultimate Lebron line up. 3 shooters (sort of) and a rebounding/hustling big. Thompson has also killed the Bulls on the offensive boards.

I could still easily see the Cavs winning the series, even without Love. Smith will be back at some point one would imagine. I think he deserves a minimum of 5 games but i could easily see the league getting him back early because of who he plays with.

The Bulls may have all their players available to them for the first time in years in post season, but Gibson, Noah & Mirotic are certainly carrying injuries.

[Cycklops]

I hope, the fight doesn't end early with some stupid chicanery like PacMan low blowing or Mayweather bites Pac's ear off or someone gets knocked out in 1-2 rds. I want a freaking brawl for 10 rds with punches flailing like back in the day Pacman and some of his bouts.

Olynyk is going to give Pacquiao a handshake and tear out his shoulder on Friday.

[Dupp]

Not sure why people are writing off the Cavs. I fear the Cavs with Lebron at full time PF than i do with Love there. Lebron's best position is at PF. It forces Chicago to go smaller. With Noah being terrible in the playoffs, you can't have him on the floor against a small ball unit Cavs.

Irving, Shumpert, Jones, James & Mozgov.

That's the ultimate Lebron line up. 3 shooters (sort of) and a rebounding/hustling big. Thompson has also killed the Bulls on the offensive boards.

I could still easily see the Cavs winning the series, even without Love. Smith will be back at some point one would imagine. I think he deserves a minimum of 5 games but i could easily see the league getting him back early because of who he plays with.

The Bulls may have all their players available to them for the first time in years in post season, but Gibson, Noah & Mirotic are certainly carrying injuries.

Nah lebron gets too burnt out playing pf and really struggles. It happened when he had to guard west a couble of years ago it just takes too much out of him having to guard big guys on a lot of possessions.

Also our depth already sucks so losing to starters really hurts no matter what you think of love / lebron at pf. Not to mention spacing.

[kingkirk]

Nah lebron gets too burnt out playing pf and really struggles. It happened when he had to guard west a couble of years ago it just takes too much out of him having to guard big guys on a lot of possessions.

Also our depth already sucks so losing to starters really hurts no matter what you think of love / lebron at pf. Not to mention spacing.

The Bucks have Jared Dudley playing the 4 right now and Noah cannot score on him. Lebron at the 4 is a match up nightmare for the Bulls.

Losing Smith & Love hurts your depth. You're down to 7 rotational guys, but i still think you can win the series.

If we had a scoring PF on the floor that was a bruiser it may be different but Noah is a non factor right now.

[DowJones]

I can't believe the bulls are getting no love here. Bulls in 6 with or without love. The Cavs just wanna shoot 3s while Chicago has the advantage where the Cavs are now weak; the bigs.

Milwaukee starts ZaZa and Iraslova and Chicago isn't exactly taking advantage.

Bucks are also a top 5 defensive team in the league. They are doubling every time Pau gets the ball on the post.

Cleveland doesn't have the defense Milwaukee does. Obviously Cavs are a top tier offensive team, but losing Love hurts that quite a bit.

So Cleveland doesn't have an athletic and long 6-9 SF of their own to double with? Or an extremely active and tough SF in Shumpert? Cleveland's defense really choked Boston after game 1. Their defense isn't bad.

You can recite regular season stats all you want but I fail to see how Chicago will exploit TT and Mozgov when they couldn't exploit Iraslova and Zaza.