Will the Pistons finally make the leap?

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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#81 » by ImChillin01 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:32 am

ajones9219 wrote:
Moose10Fan wrote:
cammac wrote:
Toronto improved in free agency they got Carroll, Cory Joseph, Biz & Scola plus Wright and Powell ( 1st team in summer league) in the draft .
Major loss Amir Johnson his ankles are made of glass, Lou Williams 6th man of the year liked him but not a major loss.

Team is much deeper loss of Amir hurts but Scola had equal numbers and is a iron man.

PG Lowry, Joseph, Wright
SG DeMar, Ross, Powell
SF Carroll, J. Johnson. Caboclo
PF Patterson, Scola
C Jonas, Biyombo, Nogueira

Last Year
PG Lowry, Vasquez
SG DeMar, Lou Williams
SF Ross, J, Johnson, Fields, Caboclo
PF Amir, Patterson, Hansbrough, Hayes
C Jonas, Stiemsma, Nogueira


I think losing Williams and Amir will hurt more than you think, I also don't anticipate Carroll trending upward in a Derozan/Lowry ISO centric offence.


This. I think Toronto is going to struggle to score, and is going to take a step or two back

Amir was k'ind of bad last year, I dont think non Raps fans understand this isnt same Amir from 2010-13. This is broken Amir Johnson who looks slow

Losing Lou Will does hurt but I think Raps will play their offense like in 2013 when they had much more ball movement. Thats why they signed players like Caroll and Joseph who come from those systems (Hawks and Spurs). So overall losing Lou Will wont be negative impact
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#82 » by tmorgan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:41 am

I have the Raptors on my "playoff lock barring serious injuries" list. That division is terrible, and the Raps have plenty of good players, if no great ones. 45-50 wins and a first or second round beating by one of the legit teams in the East (if there are more than just one, not sure yet).
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#83 » by tmorgan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:45 am

GimmeDat wrote:I really do believe that they're going to have a great season.

There roster is extremely well balanced now, and I like SVG as coach.

I think they'll end up a low seeded playoff team... the question is, where do they go from there to avoid the treadmill? They're going to need more star power than they have.


I know this probably sounds a little crazy, but there's some hope that guy you're talking about is Stanley Johnson. It may take a while, but he has a lot of the same tools your guy Jimmy Butler has, and Jimmy went from steal to (at least near) star as he developed.

If Jackson, Johnson, and Drummond become very good players, that's the basis of a contender. Not saying it's super-likely, but that seems to be the plan.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#84 » by GimmeDat » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:54 am

tmorgan wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:I really do believe that they're going to have a great season.

There roster is extremely well balanced now, and I like SVG as coach.

I think they'll end up a low seeded playoff team... the question is, where do they go from there to avoid the treadmill? They're going to need more star power than they have.


I know this probably sounds a little crazy, but there's some hope that guy you're talking about is Stanley Johnson. It may take a while, but he has a lot of the same tools your guy Jimmy Butler has, and Jimmy went from steal to (at least near) star as he developed.

If Jackson, Johnson, and Drummond become very good players, that's the basis of a contender. Not saying it's super-likely, but that seems to be the plan.


I know you guys have high hopes for Johnson, and I really like what I see as well, but it's still a major question mark. Jimmy's rise to stardom was a really improbable one, and while I'm high on Johnson myself, odds are always going to be extremely slim that he can become the type of alpha player that they need.

I think you'll find in a year or two you'll be with Jackson/Johnson/Drummond, and to a lesser extent KCP, as your core pieces, but missing the #1 option that can make them a contender.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#85 » by robbie84 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:11 pm

I like what the Pistons have done, and I really hope they make the playoffs this year.
I think signing Reggie Jackson was a very good move. I think at worst he's going to be a slightly overpaid player and there is definitely a chance (maybe 30%?) of him being a 2 or 3 time All Star in his prime so he's a good gamble especially while Johnson is cheap.

I'll be interested to see how Van Gundy structures the offense around Drummond with some shooters. Hoping KCP can take another step too.

What will the Pistons starting 5 be?

Jennings
Reggie
Johnson
Ilyasova
Drummond?
One day Marcus Smart will be defensive player of the year, mark my words.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#86 » by tmorgan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:11 pm

robbie84 wrote:I like what the Pistons have done, and I really hope they make the playoffs this year.
I think signing Reggie Jackson was a very good move. I think at worst he's going to be a slightly overpaid player and there is definitely a chance (maybe 30%?) of him being a 2 or 3 time All Star in his prime so he's a good gamble especially while Johnson is cheap.

I'll be interested to see how Van Gundy structures the offense around Drummond with some shooters. Hoping KCP can take another step too.

What will the Pistons starting 5 be?

Jennings
Reggie
Johnson
Ilyasova
Drummond?


Jennings and Jackson aren't going to start together. Jennings isn't even healthy yet, but even if he was, it would likely be Jackson/KCP/Morris/Ilyasova/Drummond for now. Jennings in a 6th man role once he's healthy. Slight chance Stanimal beats out Morris right away at SF.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#87 » by tsherkin » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:39 pm

Detroit.

Hmm.

"The leap" would be pretty ambitious. They aren't going to be a particularly good team this year. Reggie Jackson isn't a consequential player. He's not bad, but he's not going to elevate the team a lot. Jennings is a lot more interesting; if he's healthy and plays like he did this past half-season, then he's a significant plus on offense. Not a lead scorer or whatever, but a significant boon to the team. Achilles surgery is troublesome, so we'll see, especially since he's got a 3 and quickness and basically nothing else, because he doesn't draw fouls well and just can't shoot well anywhere below the arc... and even there, he isn't dominant. The trick for him is that he is quick as hell with a tight handle, and he's got a good head on his shoulders for making the pass. He's not really a star-level player, nor a star-in-the-making type, but Detroit would be a little better with him than without. They were 17-24 with him, then 15-26 without him (but of course, they had Reggie for 27 of those games, which helped blunt the impact of his absence a bit). If SVG can figure out how to roll them both out together, that would be decent potential. We'll see if he ends up a 6th man and gets sour about it, because he's definitely a wussy-minded individual.

Reggie capably replaced what the Pistons had in 14-15 Brandon Jennings in terms of his offensive impact when he arrived. If he'd been there for the other 14 games that Jennings missed, you're probably looking at a 34-win season instead of 32. Give or take a win or three. Additions aside, they don't look like a 45-win team to me.

If they can figure out their various questions, though, they look like they might be a .500; they were average offensively last year, and if they can balance Jackson and Jennings while both maintain what they did last season, then their should be net improvement there. Probably won't be TOO much, but a little. If they can boost their D a little with some of their additions and I guess addition-by-subtraction of Monroe in the middle, then maybe they can be an average defense. The East certainly isn't filled with titanboa dynamos, so they've got a shot for maybe 42 wins. A 10-game improvement would be pretty big, though, given what little they've done and who remains on the roster.

I could believe 39-42 wins, though, if everything breaks their way.

EDIT: Just for clarity, because I realized it seems vague:

"Reggie Jackson isn't a consequential player" was mostly me getting irritated with the misconception that Jackson played like an AS in Detroit. That's not true. He played about as well as Jennings had, with slightly different style/numbers. He was a net plus and he replaced something they'd already had, but the box score numbers made everyone squee, and they need to calm down. He's good, but he isn't anything they didn't actually have prior to the trade if Jennings hadn't been injured.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#88 » by Moose10Fan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:56 pm

tsherkin wrote:Detroit.

Hmm.

"The leap" would be pretty ambitious. They aren't going to be a particularly good team this year. Reggie Jackson isn't a consequential player. He's not bad, but he's not going to elevate the team a lot. Jennings is a lot more interesting; if he's healthy and plays like he did this past half-season, then he's a significant plus on offense. Not a lead scorer or whatever, but a significant boon to the team. Achilles surgery is troublesome, so we'll see, especially since he's got a 3 and quickness and basically nothing else, because he doesn't draw fouls well and just can't shoot well anywhere below the arc... and even there, he isn't dominant. The trick for him is that he is quick as hell with a tight handle, and he's got a good head on his shoulders for making the pass. He's not really a star-level player, nor a star-in-the-making type, but Detroit would be a little better with him than without. They were 17-24 with him, then 15-26 without him (but of course, they had Reggie for 27 of those games, which helped blunt the impact of his absence a bit). If SVG can figure out how to roll them both out together, that would be decent potential. We'll see if he ends up a 6th man and gets sour about it, because he's definitely a wussy-minded individual.

Reggie capably replaced what the Pistons had in 14-15 Brandon Jennings in terms of his offensive impact when he arrived. If he'd been there for the other 14 games that Jennings missed, you're probably looking at a 34-win season instead of 32. Give or take a win or three. Additions aside, they don't look like a 45-win team to me.

If they can figure out their various questions, though, they look like they might be a .500; they were average offensively last year, and if they can balance Jackson and Jennings while both maintain what they did last season, then their should be net improvement there. Probably won't be TOO much, but a little. If they can boost their D a little with some of their additions and I guess addition-by-subtraction of Monroe in the middle, then maybe they can be an average defense. The East certainly isn't filled with titanboa dynamos, so they've got a shot for maybe 42 wins. A 10-game improvement would be pretty big, though, given what little they've done and who remains on the roster.

I could believe 39-42 wins, though, if everything breaks their way.

EDIT: Just for clarity, because I realized it seems vague:

"Reggie Jackson isn't a consequential player" was mostly me getting irritated with the misconception that Jackson played like an AS in Detroit. That's not true. He played about as well as Jennings had, with slightly different style/numbers. He was a net plus and he replaced something they'd already had, but the box score numbers made everyone squee, and they need to calm down. He's good, but he isn't anything they didn't actually have prior to the trade if Jennings hadn't been injured.


Jennings had a hot stretch that's about it. Reggie is a completely different player, Jackson can penetrate with a floater to boot, he is one of the better P&R players in the league and has a great rep with Drummond as well, the added spacing makes it more deadly. I'm a Jennings fan, he can shoot 3's and is a fairly adept passer but he and drummond never worked as well as drummond/Reggie.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#89 » by tsherkin » Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:21 pm

Moose10Fan wrote:
Jennings had a hot stretch that's about it. Reggie is a completely different player, Jackson can penetrate with a floater to boot, he is one of the better P&R players in the league and has a great rep with Drummond as well, the added spacing makes it more deadly.


His playmaking is fine; the net result to the team was that he replaced what Jennings had been doing in the first half, though, especially because he also sucks to a similar degree at scoring efficiently compared to Jennings.

I'm a Jennings fan, he can shoot 3's and is a fairly adept passer but he and drummond never worked as well as drummond/Reggie.


Mmmmm. Drummond shot about 3% better from the floor after the trade. I'll wait to see if he can protect the ball as well over a more significant sample size, but it is a better fit from a style standpoint, I can't really argue that. He's not likely going to be anything more than a Tyson Chandler-type offensively, but that's OK, that has value, and more than a little.

With respect to Jennings, yes, I agree: he was shooting about as well as he ever had beneath the arc and above, and the Pistons were REALLY going to him a lot before his Achilles crapped out. The odds of him continuing to shoot 39% on 6.5 3PA/g weren't GREAT, but he's shot 35.1% on 5.7/g over the past 267 regular season games, so it wasn't a HUGE separation from his usual fare. Keep in mind that he did shoot 37.5% on 5.8/g as recently as 2013 and this was the third time in five years that he's shot 42%+ below the arc. Some of these things do point to his ability to maintain at least a given baseline.

The net result, in any case, was that he posted a below-average 52.2% TS on his 41-game season. That still isn't good, especially with 26.3% USG. 110 ORTG was nice, as was +4.3 OBPM.

Jackson, for all his myriad narrative value and his synergy with Drummond, was a 106 ORTG guy who managed 51.1% TS in both OKC and Detroit last year (career 51.3%, career-best 53.1%) with +3.9 OBPM in Detroit.

He really isn't any better a scorer. He's got an unimpressive perimeter two-pointer, he's even worse at drawing fouls than Jennings, he's got a similarly-crap middle game and he's worse from 3. He finishes better in close, that's it (scoring-wise).

He's got value, for sure, and the reality is that he's a superior playmaker, but the difference between those two in realized team offensive impact is not significant. Jackson also had a smaller sample and "zomg he's new!" syndrome, so we'll see what happens over the length of a full season. Maybe he'll maintain/improve, but it likely won't be as a scorer. He's been in the league a while, and has continued to suck at certain things without any sign of improvement. Running him 28%+ USG isn't going to be good stuff in the sense that it'll put a cap on his ability to elevate team offense. His playmaking will be a boon, and will be a more consistent boon to team O than Jennings' fitful shooting, that is true.

Hopefully for the sake of the Pistons, they will manage to successfully employ Jennings as 6th man and let him come in and gun when Reggie sits, and they find that comfortable balance where they never have both on the bench, and this produces positive things for team O.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#90 » by Warspite » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:14 pm

Its a zero sum game so for the Pistons to get better then all of your teams are going to have to lose more and no fan wants to admit his team is not better much less worse.

Almost every team in the east improved over last season. IMHO its going to come down to health and internal development to decide who is a playoff team and who isn't. Even the Cavs could miss the playoffs with an injury or 2.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#91 » by Rendei » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:43 pm

I really like what the Pistons are doing, but it feels... incomplete. They've gone a long ways towards creating a roster that SVG is really comfortable with, but it seems like that was the result of a tear down more than anything else. Greg Monroe and Josh Smith are both gone for literally nothing, not because they're bad players, but simply because they didn't fit.

Well now the Pistons have a bunch of 4's that do fit their system, but none of them inspire confidence as NBA starters. Their power forward position is the NBA equivalent of duct tape. And their best 3 is probably a rookie who doesn't really fit the "space the floor" mantra right now that they want to live by.

Long story short, I think the Pistons are right on the edge of turning the corner. I just don't know if they're quite ready for it to happen this year or not. But once this team finds some real starting forwards (with Stanley hopefully becoming one with some experience) they'll emerge.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#92 » by GYK » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:13 pm

Reggie/Brandon/Steve. thats a good point rotation. RJ/SB can play 2 two to make them faster and an additional playmaker.
KCP/Jodie/Spencer/Hillard. I know the first two are great shooters.
Stanley/Granger/Bullock/Martin/Adonis. good defensive minded core with shooting ability.
Illy/Morris/Tolliver. athletic stretch fours. their best shooters as well.
Drummond/Baynes/Joel. Drummond is baby Dwight. of the uber efficient centers he's the one getting plays called for him. Baynes is more of an all-around center. midrange/passing ability and can hit the late game FT's. Joel is defensive minded.

they fit SVG. don't have that point-forward and Drummond hasn't proven to be Dwight yet. Monroe is a an lost on both ends.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#93 » by RasheedTupac » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:41 am

GYK wrote:Reggie/Brandon/Steve. thats a good point rotation. RJ/SB can play 2 two to make them faster and an additional playmaker.
KCP/Jodie/Spencer/Hillard. I know the first two are great shooters.
Stanley/Granger/Bullock/Martin/Adonis. good defensive minded core with shooting ability.
Illy/Morris/Tolliver. athletic stretch fours. their best shooters as well.
Drummond/Baynes/Joel. Drummond is baby Dwight. of the uber efficient centers he's the one getting plays called for him. Baynes is more of an all-around center. midrange/passing ability and can hit the late game FT's. Joel is defensive minded.

they fit SVG. don't have that point-forward and Drummond hasn't proven to be Dwight yet. Monroe is a an lost on both ends.

Monroe was a horrid defender
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#94 » by GYK » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:46 am

RasheedTupac wrote:
GYK wrote:Reggie/Brandon/Steve. thats a good point rotation. RJ/SB can play 2 two to make them faster and an additional playmaker.
KCP/Jodie/Spencer/Hillard. I know the first two are great shooters.
Stanley/Granger/Bullock/Martin/Adonis. good defensive minded core with shooting ability.
Illy/Morris/Tolliver. athletic stretch fours. their best shooters as well.
Drummond/Baynes/Joel. Drummond is baby Dwight. of the uber efficient centers he's the one getting plays called for him. Baynes is more of an all-around center. midrange/passing ability and can hit the late game FT's. Joel is defensive minded.

they fit SVG. don't have that point-forward and Drummond hasn't proven to be Dwight yet. Monroe is a an lost on both ends.

Monroe was a horrid defender

uh huh.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#95 » by tayottt » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:44 am

tsherkin wrote:Detroit.

Hmm.

"The leap" would be pretty ambitious. They aren't going to be a particularly good team this year. Reggie Jackson isn't a consequential player. He's not bad, but he's not going to elevate the team a lot. Jennings is a lot more interesting; if he's healthy and plays like he did this past half-season, then he's a significant plus on offense. Not a lead scorer or whatever, but a significant boon to the team. Achilles surgery is troublesome, so we'll see, especially since he's got a 3 and quickness and basically nothing else, because he doesn't draw fouls well and just can't shoot well anywhere below the arc... and even there, he isn't dominant. The trick for him is that he is quick as hell with a tight handle, and he's got a good head on his shoulders for making the pass. He's not really a star-level player, nor a star-in-the-making type, but Detroit would be a little better with him than without. They were 17-24 with him, then 15-26 without him (but of course, they had Reggie for 27 of those games, which helped blunt the impact of his absence a bit). If SVG can figure out how to roll them both out together, that would be decent potential. We'll see if he ends up a 6th man and gets sour about it, because he's definitely a wussy-minded individual.

Reggie capably replaced what the Pistons had in 14-15 Brandon Jennings in terms of his offensive impact when he arrived. If he'd been there for the other 14 games that Jennings missed, you're probably looking at a 34-win season instead of 32. Give or take a win or three. Additions aside, they don't look like a 45-win team to me.

If they can figure out their various questions, though, they look like they might be a .500; they were average offensively last year, and if they can balance Jackson and Jennings while both maintain what they did last season, then their should be net improvement there. Probably won't be TOO much, but a little. If they can boost their D a little with some of their additions and I guess addition-by-subtraction of Monroe in the middle, then maybe they can be an average defense. The East certainly isn't filled with titanboa dynamos, so they've got a shot for maybe 42 wins. A 10-game improvement would be pretty big, though, given what little they've done and who remains on the roster.

I could believe 39-42 wins, though, if everything breaks their way.

EDIT: Just for clarity, because I realized it seems vague:

"Reggie Jackson isn't a consequential player" was mostly me getting irritated with the misconception that Jackson played like an AS in Detroit. That's not true. He played about as well as Jennings had, with slightly different style/numbers. He was a net plus and he replaced something they'd already had, but the box score numbers made everyone squee, and they need to calm down. He's good, but he isn't anything they didn't actually have prior to the trade if Jennings hadn't been injured.


I think I'm just higher on Reggie Jackson than you are. It's ironic because I was one of his biggest detractors while he was in OKC. However, what I saw of him and Drum in the PnR for stretches last season was scary (RJ was ~75%percentile in PnR per Synergy). At times Reggie looked like mini-Westbrook. Coming off screens and driving to the rim at will. His shooting isn't quite where one would like it to be (though his ft%/mechanics have always been good), but that's where Marcus Morris, Ersan, and KCP come into play. I just like the idea of surrounding that type of devastating PnR game with shooters. Defenses will have to collapse and a shooter will be open every time.

I expect Reggie to show how dynamic he can be on offense and have a career season. I can't stress enough how big that PnR with Drummond/Ersan will be. They will run it a lot and it is guaranteed to give teams problems.

I'm still very worried about the Pistons defense this season. The personnel would seem to hint at a style of defense I haven't seen an SVG team play (more aggressive/risky), but if they can get to 13th in the league, I think they will be fine.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#96 » by tsherkin » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:09 am

tayottt wrote:I think I'm just higher on Reggie Jackson than you are. It's ironic because I was one of his biggest detractors while he was in OKC. However, what I saw of him and Drum in the PnR for stretches last season was scary (RJ was ~75%percentile in PnR per Synergy). At times Reggie looked like mini-Westbrook. Coming off screens and driving to the rim at will. His shooting isn't quite where one would like it to be (though his ft%/mechanics have always been good), but that's where Marcus Morris, Ersan, and KCP come into play. I just like the idea of surrounding that type of devastating PnR game with shooters. Defenses will have to collapse and a shooter will be open every time.


Oh, I think Reggie's GOOD for the Pistons, I mean that he is a net positive is a foregone conclusion; his offensive impact was clear within scope, and he clearly has some synergy with Drummond. The biggest reason I'm saying anything about him is that a lot of people seem to think he's better than he is, especially with his minimal track record of improvement as a scorer. His playmaking isn't my concern, he can clearly handle a screen and roll.

What I'm saying is that his limitations as a scorer and what-not hold him from being an AS-level player or a HUGE impact player, is all.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#97 » by tmorgan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:02 am

It's definitely about the defense, and the defense could be pretty good or pretty bad. The offense will be solid, pretty much guaranteed, as SVG runs a good system and he has the players he wants to run it. We'll see how they adjust to life without their proven low-post scorer in Monroe, but frankly, I'm not worried at all on that end.

It's on Drummond to get his head out of his ass, and on the athletic wings (KCP, Stanimal, and to a lesser extent, Morris) to do a better job than last year's assortment of corpses (besides KCP) at the SF/SG positions. They're hoping not having Monroe play the 4 helps out against perimeter-oriented PF's, too, which it should, but Drummond and company will need to pick up the rebounding slack.

I really am shocked at popular opinion -- 30-35 wins, 10-12th in the east. I'm almost sure we'll be better than that. I'm cautious beyond .500, as the team is still mostly young and not supremely talented.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#98 » by Brapman » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:34 pm

The question for the Pistons isn't whether they improved their talent and fit by a lot. Obviously they have done that - and that includes the expected internal development of their very young core guys, who happen to have upsides ranging from enormous to borderline all-star (each of them).

The question is how fast the team comes together and plays like a well-oiled machine, given how young we are and how new the guys are to each other after tons of player movement/turnover over the last few years. Young teams are always inconsistent. Young players and players in new systems and new to each other are always a beat slow (too many times during too many games) to react and play their roles as designed.
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#99 » by New York Knick » Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:25 am

Catalysm wrote:
New York Knick wrote:I don't think they make the leap into top 3 lottery pick this year, maybe next year. I do however feel a top 5 pick is more realistic and not far from reach.


Well as long as SVG drafts a Euro with that top 5 pick and compares him to Shawn Bradley, the Pistons may move out of top 5 pick range in 2017 right?

Yes, correct.
PG - Jerian Grant/Galloway
SG - Arron Afflalo/Vujacic
SF - Carmelo Anthony/Williams
PF - Kristaps Porzingis/O'Quinn
C - Robin Lopez/Admundson

Projected record: 42-40 :cheesygrin:
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Re: Will the Pistons finally make the leap? 

Post#100 » by Revived » Mon Mar 7, 2016 8:27 pm

Yea I think they will soon. They now seem to have their nucleus, its just about developing them and taking that next step.

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