How do you rate the Pacers' chances at making the playoffs?

[jowglenn]

In a majority of the predictions I've seen, the Pacers are outside the playoffs looking in.

This is obviously a big change year for the Pacers - they've lost Hibbert & West, they've got Paul George back from injury, they've added Monta Ellis, they drafted a lotto big man for the first time in 20 years, and beyond that they've added some low-tier vets (Jordan Hill & Chase Budinger) and low-tier youth (Rakeem Christmas, Glenn Robinson III, Joe Young). They're planning on playing a drastically different style - utterly forgetting the post-heavy system they've played with Hibbert & West, and moving towards a pace-and-space small-ball that features Paul George playing serious minutes at the 4. They've pretty deep on the wing, which is part of why they're planning to move to small-ball. If they try to keep 2 big men on the floor at all times, they'll run out of big men.

The main rotation will probably settle out roughly to something like this:

G. Hill (34)/ Stuckey (14)
Ellis (28)/ Stuckey (10)/ Miles (10)
Miles (15)/ George (15)/ S.Hill (18)
George (18)/ J. Hill (25)/ Lavoy (5)
Mahinmi (20)/ Turner (20)/ Lavoy (8)

That's the 10-man rotation as I see it. If Myles Turner comes along too slow, he'll get less minutes, but if he is an immediate beast, he might get more.

The deep bench is Joe Young, Toney Douglas, Glenn Robinson III, Chase Budinger, Rakeem Christmas. All these guys will play at some point. Budinger might be too good to leave on the bench, or he might get injured on day 2 and never play. The young guys will get garbage & injury minutes and will have to really work hard to earn any regular rotation minutes.

Best case scenario, Paul George is full strength, the whole thing gels really well, Monta & Hill fit well, Turner is the steal of the draft, and the small-ball unlocks the best offense the Pacers can imagine, with Hill, Miles, & PG providing elite shooting and Monta slicing and dicing. They are the surprise good team in the East, nabbing the 3rd or 4th seed.

Worst case scenario, Paul George isn't his old self, the small-ball thing fails as Vogel is unable to make it work, they get run over on the interior due to their lack of elite (or even average) big men, and they end up 11th in the East and back in the lottery.


This, to me, represents one of the widest set of possibilities for any team out there. They could be unexpectedly great, or unexpectedly bad, or anywhere in between.


What are your thoughts? Will they make the playoffs?

[TreymondGreen]

I think they're in the playoffs. I want to see their new crop of small players perform under Vogel's defensively minded system.


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[tmorgan]

I worry about the overall talent level. A good coach can overcome some of that, and Vogel is a good coach, but to me the roster looks like: one great player coming off an injury, one good player in GHill, one overrated but solid player that can be sulky in Ellis, clearly below average starters at the 3 and 5, one potentially good rookie that may have adjustment problems, a couple of solid bench guys, and a bunch of dreck. The East sucks, certainly, but there appear to be a whole bunch of teams that are capable of 38 or so wins. Can the Pacers outplay a majority of them to land the 7th or 8th seed? I think the odds are under 50%.

[HoopsterJones]

Probably a 7th or 8th seed if Paul George plays well. That front court is a big question mark, though rumor has it PG13 is going to play some PF. Which I think may not work except in certain matchups.

[bondom34]

I like the chances, could see probably 6 or so. They're certainly not a bottom 4 team to me, and could see anywhere from about 6-8 most likely.

[dorkestra]

Most teams in the East aside from the Sixers could realistically consider themselves in the playoff race. I have 1-5 as Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, Washington in some order.

I could see the 6-8 spots going to any three of the following:

Pacers
Bucks
Pistons
Raptors
Hornets

And I'd consider the following teams a longer shot, but still possible to make the playoffs ahead of one of the teams above:

Celtics
Nets
Knicks
Magic

[76ers 2020]

I had them on the outside looking in last rankings I did. For other reasons recently I went through Hibbert and West's defensive numbers from last year in detail. It will be easier to replace them than I had assumed going in. So I might have to rethink it. There are a lot of teams that can take the 8th spot in the East if things roll right. Seems like a lot of teams in the league are moving forward.

[laploutocratie]

lmao helllll naw. Even with the weak East, they have no chance with that reduced roster.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I don't agree with the Hibbert trade. I like Turner a lot though. I'm thinking 6th seed.

[Han Solo]

Anywhere from 5-12 haha

[Syd-TK3]

Better than the knicks but still bad their fighting for 8th

[lars_rosenberg]

I think the Pacers are the sleeper team in the east.
Monta Ellis was the best player in a playoff team in the west with the Mavs and Paul George should be a darkhorse MVP candidate. Turner has potential and the three Hills are decent players.
I would be shocked if the Pacers won't be in the playoffs.

[fast-break]

They were right there last year with catfish missing over 90% of the season. They've got a shot.

[Cone41]

I predict 4th-5th seed.

Sure they lost Hibbert n West but they're getting a healthy potential superstar back in PG, a underrated all star caliber player in Monta Ellis (great fit) and the steal of the draft in Turner.

The only teams that are better than them are the Cavs, Heat, Hawks, and probably the Bulls.

[Edrees]

They almost made it last year and george played just a few games. I understand West and hibbert are gone, but that to me means they'll hit the 6th or 7th seed this year

[Cartuse]

I think their chances of making the playoffs are somewhat decent. It's the east yo. It's not like they are adam morrison's bobcats or something like that...

[NBAfan3024]

If George is healthy I expect them to make it


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[HotelVitale]

Gun to my head I'm picking them for the 8th spot. Think their most likely outcome is better than that of the Pistons and Hornets, and I'm still gun-shy about the Celtics (though I think we've been underrating their offseason acquisitions on the GB).

[Bravenewworld]

Healthy?
100% chance.
They are not the contenders they once were, but very well coached, good players, etc. But they still have to make a trade to bring in a second big time player before they are contenders again.

[simon24]

I could see them making 8th seed or finishing late in the lottery 10th-15th.