ESPN: Knicks having discussions for a Derrick Rose trade

[chrisnu]

Derrick Rose is not an upgrade over Jose Calderon. Don't do it, Phil, unless he's been waived by Chicago and is coming at a steep discount.

This is a ban-worthy post.

Care to explain why?

[koogiking]

Calderon is garbage

[Brooklyn_34]

Oh boy....not another mortgaging away the future for a rental (and an injured one).

But it sounds like the Knicks alright......

[ibraheim718]

Oh boy....not another mortgaging away the future for a rental (and an injured one).

But it sounds like the Knicks alright......

Is there even a rumor of what the Knicks would be "mortgaging" ?

[tsherkin]

With respect to Rose/Calderon...

Jose is at least a good PG. He's a defensive nightmare, of course, and he can't handle big minutes. He isn't a scorer, and only shoots when he has to, sort of deal. But he's a reasonable game manager, a strong PnR playmaker and generally speaking better at milking offensive value out of his team. Rose's gag is scoring, and he's crap at it these days. Last year, he was a dreadful waste, mostly. I dunno if Calderon would be better for Chicago, but he's a better overall bet in general. Platoon him with someone who can dribble drive and you've got yourself a PG rotation. Rose, I dunno. He looks awful almost every time I watch him play. He was a borderline scoring threat even at his peak, overextending the utility of his threat to score because the team didn't have enough offensive talent. He did well; not REMARKABLY well, but pretty well. He's slower, he hasn't improved as a shooter, he isn't a crafty short finisher like Tony Parker, never developed a legit 3... I mean, his scoring skill set is mostly about crossovers and speed, and he wasn't a hot finisher to begin with.

I don't know what people are expecting. He's not a particularly good player these days, and he's surviving and getting minutes because of a season that happened a half-decade ago, like Q said. Rep, and the fact that Chicago doesn't really have a ton of great choices otherwise, keeps him playing but he hasn't been very good by literally any measure or evaluatory approach. Loyalty is one thing, but Chicago's wasting time and money if they extend him, and likewise New York if they trade for him.

[Keller61]

sure it would... throwing half their capspace at a guy who statistically was one of the 3 worst PGs in the league last season. a PR move with no short or long term upside.

Rose improved remarkably post January. If the Knicks miss the free-agents worth of a long term commitment, and they likely will, it'd be a very smart move. If he builds on his improvement on the second half of last season, and it might be he's still shaking the rust, it probably is the best way of improving their team this season while leaving their options open for the next Summer - even if it's extremely unlikely that Rose ever goes back to his All-NBA level.

shaking off the rust? 3 years of shaking off the rust?

also "improved remarkably" is really misleading, given that he was playing at a dleague level and his improvement brought him up to "one of the worst starters in the league". not to mention, its not even accurate that he finished strong. really all he did was have a decent january. which was still a pretty bad month. 17/3/3 on 52TS is not very good.

january - 17/3/3 on 52 TS
february - 20/5/5 on 50 TS
march - 16/2/4 on 51 TS
april - 13/3/4 on 40 TS (3 games)

post all-star 17/3/4 on 51 TS

sure he improved from being arguably the worst starting player in the league to a bottom starting 5 point gaurd from first to second half but he was still a bad player who got worse from january to april. All he does is score and he does so at a horrible rate even if you throw out pre-january or pre-allstar break.

as a comparison

calderon post all-star 8/3/4 on 54 TS with half the usage of rose(13% to 27%)

you would be better off asking calderon to take twice as many shots

He didn't get worse from January to April. His best stretch was 2/18 to 3/24, averaging 21 ppg on 59% TS. He hurt his elbow near the end of March and was playing with one arm for several games.

From 12/25 to 3/24, Rose averaged 19/4/4 on 53% TS in 31 mpg (22/5/5 per 36), with the following shooting splits:

0-3 feet: 57%
4-9 feet: 50%
10-15 feet: 43%
16 feet - 3P: 41%
3P: 36%
FT: 85%

Solid percentages from everywhere; the only problem being his low FTA. That's what Rose looked like this year when he had use of both eyes and both arms.

[Ignitowsky]

Oh boy....not another mortgaging away the future for a rental (and an injured one).

But it sounds like the Knicks alright......

No, it's actually something the Nets have done a great job of doing. Jackson has, for the most part, brought in yiubger guys at reasonable salaries and has not mortgaged the team's future bt trading away first rounders.

[TeamTragic]

Derrick Rose is the future Phil promised that franchise?

[tsherkin]

From 12/25 to 3/24, Rose averaged 19/4/4 on 53% TS in 31 mpg (22/5/5 per 36), with the following shooting splits:

0-3 feet: 57%
4-9 feet: 50%
10-15 feet: 43%
16 feet - 3P: 41%
3P: 36%
FT: 85%

Solid percentages from everywhere; the only problem being his low FTA. That's what Rose looked like this year when he had use of both eyes and both arms.

This is 35 games. 35 games at a below-average level of performance, with a higher-than-expected level of 3pt shooting which he's never maintained across an entire season even when healthy. The highest 3P% he's managed was 34.0%... in a 10-game season. Otherwise, it's lower.

So what he actually averaged, because you rounded, was 19.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg and 4.4 apg. He did that in 31.5 mpg as a -2.8 +/- with an average game score of 12.7. There are other numbers to consider, naturally. He was shooting 47.5% from the field overall and quite well from three, which was atypical. You'll notice in the numbers you quoted an outlier level of finishing from 4-9 feet.

Anyway, noticing that he was not an elite finisher, and he's never been especially good at drawing fouls or shooting threes, we know what we know about Rose: he managed to put together a below-average stretch of games for just under half of the season, where it still wasn't worth it to throw him the ball for ~ 17 FGA/g.

This isn't a stretch to point to of any serious interest. It just shows that the best stretch of his season was below-average mid-volume scoring with weak playmaking for a guy at the point with his usage.

[Capn'O]

This isn't really news. I would imagine every team in the league has discussed him internally - or more broadly that the Bulls may be going into fire sale mode. That's all this rumor is.

He's a big name player on an expiring that has shown flashes of his old self but not sustainably. Somebody will take the bait. I don't think the Knicks will though. They don't really have the expendable pieces and Phil's regime has been very frugal with expenses and draft pick. They have also used misdirection on almost every move so far (Rambis, Winslow, etc.)

[E-Balla]

From 12/25 to 3/24, Rose averaged 19/4/4 on 53% TS in 31 mpg (22/5/5 per 36), with the following shooting splits:

0-3 feet: 57%
4-9 feet: 50%
10-15 feet: 43%
16 feet - 3P: 41%
3P: 36%
FT: 85%

Solid percentages from everywhere; the only problem being his low FTA. That's what Rose looked like this year when he had use of both eyes and both arms.

This is 35 games. 35 games at a below-average level of performance, with a higher-than-expected level of 3pt shooting which he's never maintained across an entire season even when healthy. The highest 3P% he's managed was 34.0%... in a 10-game season. Otherwise, it's lower.

So what he actually averaged, because you rounded, was 19.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg and 4.4 apg. He did that in 31.5 mpg as a -2.8 +/- with an average game score of 12.7. There are other numbers to consider, naturally. He was shooting 47.5% from the field overall and quite well from three, which was atypical. You'll notice in the numbers you quoted an outlier level of finishing from 4-9 feet.

Anyway, noticing that he was not an elite finisher, and he's never been especially good at drawing fouls or shooting threes, we know what we know about Rose: he managed to put together a below-average stretch of games for just under half of the season, where it still wasn't worth it to throw him the ball for ~ 17 FGA/g.

This isn't a stretch to point to of any serious interest. It just shows that the best stretch of his season was below-average mid-volume scoring with weak playmaking for a guy at the point with his usage.

Agree with the rest of your post but want to correct this. There's no way this is an outlier for Rose. He's shot better than that from 4-9 as recently as 2014 and his actual outlier season in that range was his MVP season (where he was 37%) and it was pancaked between seasons where he shot 53 and 46% from that range. If there's one thing Rose could always do its finish near the paint.

[E-Balla]

Lopez and Calderon is about right. Rose is not a top 10 PG anymore.

Lopez for Rose is highway robbery.

Good thing none of the Knicks moves leak or I'd be panicked right now mad at Phil for our Rose-Winslow-Melo-Monroe lineup...

[Rerisen]

and he wasn't a hot finisher to begin with.

.611 FG% from 0-3 FT isn't a good finisher? Westbrook not to hot either then I guess.

Sorry to pick out a line, but geez, people sure love dog piling on Rose now that's he diminished.

[tsherkin]

and he wasn't a hot finisher to begin with.

.611 FG% from 0-3 FT isn't a good finisher? Westbrook not to hot either then I guess.

Westbrook is fairly unimpressive finishing in close, yes. That's what you get for being a shorter guy. It's pretty decent finishing compared to his position, but I don't really care about that when you're a volume scorer, personally. The 61.1% in was a) decent but unremarkable and b) an outlier to that point in his career and not something I'd expect him to have sustained even had he remained healthy.

Sorry to pick out a line, but geez, people sure love dog piling on Rose now that's he diminished.

You'll wanna try that one again I was never a fan of his scoring ability even in his good season, so this doesn't apply to me

I mean, I'm ragging on you in the above line, of course. I can appreciate what it's like to have everyone ragging on a guy who did good things for you, but I'm just saying I'm not piling on him because he's down, I've been bitching about this his entire career and find it a core flaw in MOST scoring point guards, since they're frequently 5-7%+ worse than the finishing we see from comparable tall guards at that range. It's a problem with running volume offense through the point.

Agree with the rest of your post but want to correct this. There's no way this is an outlier for Rose. He's shot better than that from 4-9 as recently as 2014 and his actual outlier season in that range was his MVP season (where he was 37%) and it was pancaked between seasons where he shot 53 and 46% from that range. If there's one thing Rose could always do its finish near the paint.

2014 was the 10-game season I was talking about So that doesn't count for a single thing.

[Rerisen]

Westbrook is fairly unimpressive finishing in close, yes. That's what you get for being a shorter guy. It's pretty decent finishing compared to his position, but I don't really care about that when you're a volume scorer, personally. The 61.1% in was a) decent but unremarkable and b) an outlier to that point in his career and not so its not something I'd expect him to have sustained even had he remained healthy.

How many players in 2011 had higher volume and accuracy at the rim? 3 or 4 come to mind, Wade, LeBron, Parker, maybe KD?

If you want to throw in bigs like Howard, maybe you can get closer to 10 in the same tier, still, top 10 doesn't jive with 'not so hot'. 65% FG isn't comparable if a guy is getting half the volume.

Vs taller guards (more likely wings) you are also likely getting less playmaking in tandem with the drives, and thus lower value to the team.

I also don't see where that year would have been anomaly. Most players don't peak at 22. And Rose finished not too far off that mark the in 2012, despite missing almost half the year to injuries that season. 'To that point in his career' Rose had played an entire 2 seasons in the NBA, as a rookie and sophomore, obvious improving seasons that are fairly irrelevant as benchmarks for what the rest of his career would have been.

Rose will never be forgiven for winning that MVP.

[tsherkin]

How many players in 2011 had higher volume and accuracy at the rim? 3 or 4 come to mind, Wade, LeBron, Parker, maybe KD?

You're arguing a point I'm not trying to make. I thought he was pretty good, but nothing seriously worth mention that year. It was a decent year. It was a notable year for PG scorers, which isn't saying much because they're usually much worse.

Wade has averaged 66.1% over his career to date.
Kobe averaged 63.4%, but had a half-dozen or so seasons of 63%+ from 01-13.
Durant has averaged 72.3%.
Lebron 72.5%.

If you're going to run 20 FGA/g to a player (19.7, if you want to quibble), he better be pretty good. If you choose to employ that strategy, said player will inevitably be evaluated against players who fill a similar role, and Rose is obviously a lot worse than the premier scorers of the last 15 years at least. That's what happens when you take a scoring guard with a limited skill set and weak peripheral tools and thrust him into a volume role. That's what happens when your team has injuries and crap offensive support and you overextend the smallest guy on the court from the least-assisted position in basketball and ask him to carry your offense. He did a pretty good job overall because he passed pretty well, but it really wasn't a tour de force scoring season and his finishing ability in close wasn't that remarkable.

If you want to be particular, then let's look at the non-big 20+ ppg scorers that year, right? Lebron, Durant, Kobe and Wade all immediately thrash Rose. He was a little better than Melo, who immediately declined in this respect after leaving Denver because his transition buckets declined.

Monta Ellis shot 70.3% on about 0.9 fewer FGA/g at that distance. Kevin Martin shot 70.3% as well, but on roughly 2.9 FGA/g, so something like 3 fewer shots per game at that range. Westbrook shot 60.6^ that year. His FG% from 0-3 has declined with increasing usage and of course the diminishing percentage of transition opportunities. Danny Granger shot 61.4% on around 3.3 FGA/g. So again, he looks good positionally, but really obviously not in the upper tier of guys who were actually worth it as volume scorers. The Bulls kind of had to use him that way, but that's because they didn't have better choices, which is sort of the point. Rose's ability as a scorer was overextended that season, and though injuries helped things along later, his playoff decline wasn't unexpected because he really wasn't that impressive a scorer overall. He was a total waste of skin against Indiana that year, even before the ankle injury in Game 4. Had a weak series against he Hawks with a big explosion game and then yeah, reinjured the ankle and blew against the Heat, but that was to be expected (though a shame, because that opener was impressive). He was a speed freak with shaky range and finishing ability that wasn't elite overall (though solid positionally). This is sort of clear. There are only so many guys in the league who are permitted to shoot enough to score as much as he did that year, though, so too much is made of 25 ppg and less is made of "well, everyone was injured, and he sort of had to shoot, though he didn't do a great job compared to guys perennially in that range."

The point is, a guy can be good relative to his position and still not a hot option as a scorer at that volume. With the best shooting of his career in that zone on a shade under 6 attempts per game, he was barely +1% over league-average TS%. Rose was a weak choice as a volume scorer.... though that left him just beneath Carmelo Anthony's level in that respect, and a better overall offensive player than Melo because of his playmaking. Thats a pretty good player, and not that hot a scorer.

If you want to throw in bigs like Howard, maybe you can get closer to 10 in the same tier, still, top 10 doesn't jive with 'not so hot'.

That sort of presupposes that the ability to finish in volume at that level is a common trait. Volume scorers who are worth it are pretty rare. Most of the guys who are overcome weaker finishing by drawing fouls and hitting threes, things which Rose never did particularly well. Again, there's a difference between quality as a scorer and quality as an offensive player.

Rose will never be forgiven for winning that MVP.

Nor should he be, it was a foolish award to give, but that's not really what's at play here.

[Rerisen]

You're arguing a point I'm not trying to make. I thought he was pretty good, but nothing seriously worth mention that year. It was a decent year. It was a notable year for PG scorers, which isn't saying much because they're usually much worse.

Wade has averaged 66.1% over his career to date.
Kobe averaged 63.4%, but had a half-dozen or so seasons of 63%+ from 01-13.
Durant has averaged 72.3%.
Lebron 72.5%.

Yes these are all HOF All Time great players. Hardly embarrassing to be behind them.

And there is a lot of room between that and 'decent'.

and Rose is obviously a lot worse than the premier scorers of the last 15 years at least.

I didn't argue otherwise.

He did a pretty good job overall because he passed pretty well, but it really wasn't a tour de force scoring season and his finishing ability in close wasn't that remarkable.

I would agree that his scoring was over leveraged, but 'pretty good' is selling him short, when probably only a handful of guys in the league would have done as well or better in the role.

That's at least 'very good', even if not elite.

I mean lets review. If a guy is not especially good at anything on offense, as you described, it reads like an average player, not an All-Star, let alone an MVP, no matter how undeserving one thinks he was.

Maybe I'd get farther turning it around, what was he actually good at? Anything?

Monta Ellis shot 70.3% on about 0.9 fewer FGA/g at that distance. Kevin Martin shot 70.3% as well, but on roughly 2.9 FGA/g, so something like 3 fewer shots per game at that range. Westbrook shot 60.6^ that year. His FG% from 0-3 has declined with increasing usage and of course the diminishing percentage of transition opportunities. Danny Granger shot 61.4% on around 3.3 FGA/g.

What you aren't appreciating here is the gain of over leveraging Rose in his role, was in being able to stock an entire team of mostly defenders, rebounders, and hustle players and having the PG shoulder an inordinate offensive load to make it work.

Ideal situation Rose scores much less, maybe 20 PPG, and gets more efficient as a result (and better spacing around him). But that wasn't the personnel and I don't think there were more than 3-5 players in the league that could have took on his burden and done as well. Granger, Martin, Monta.... no way.

his playoff decline wasn't unexpected because he really wasn't that impressive a scorer overall.

His playoff decline was a combination of being 22 (see Lebron at 22 vs the Spurs), being over leveraged yes, and a few nagging injuries he picked up in the playoff run. As well as total collapse of his teammates in scoring, who were also suffering some health issues, and in combination with running up against one of the best PG trapping teams of all time perhaps in the 2011 Heat.

The Bulls by the playoffs were not a potent offensive team outside Rose at all. Noah and Boozer were unable to finish anything (Boozer stunk the whole 2nd half actually, after his own ankle sprains) and of course Deng had no playmaking skills and Bogans was a slow release spot up shooter with zero threat game inside the arc.

To suggest if he never got hurt, Rose could not have improved his post-season efficiency is I think, silly. Rose's first 2 seasons would have little bearing going forward, as he was obviously becoming a better player every season beyond them.

Rose was a weak choice as a volume scorer.... though that left him just beneath Carmelo Anthony's level in that respect, and a better overall offensive player than Melo because of his playmaking. Thats a pretty good player, and not that hot a scorer.

I can get onboard with the first part about Melo, and maybe the second is just semantics, but a 'pretty good player' to me is Luol Deng that year, not Derrick Rose. A guy that who, perhaps wasn't the strongest MVP (and I still believe this is where a lot of the Rose downplaying always stems from) was nevertheless easily arguable as a top 4-7 player in the league that year.

Even if you personally would rank him lower, say 8th, a top 10 player is rarely ever discussed as merely 'decent' or 'pretty good'. Who is top a top 10 player this year, maybe Blake Griffin? Is Blake Griffin merely 'pretty good'...?

[tsherkin]

Yes these are all HOF All Time great players. Hardly embarrassing to be behind them.

And there is a lot of room between that and 'decent'.

This is a semantic argument. It doesn't really change the fact that part of why Rose wasn't an especially compelling scorer was that he wasn't a high-end finisher in close. He wasn't a BAD finisher, and in 2011, he had an above-average season in that regard relative to his position, but that's less important than his performance compared to guys who were more worthwhile for handling that sort of usage (speaking of scoring ability, mind).

I didn't argue otherwise.

Right, we're speaking past each other to some extent. You're unhappy over the fact that I'm not saying complimentary things, and I'm not trying to be as critical of Rose as you think I am. It's all good.

I would agree that his scoring was over leveraged, but 'pretty good' is selling him short, when probably only a handful of guys in the league would have done as well or better in the role.

That's at least 'very good', even if not elite.

No, I wouldn't call him an elite scorer at all. Offensive player? Now we're having a separate conversation, but very much not as a scorer.

I mean lets review. If a guy is not especially good at anything on offense, as you described,

Let me fix you right there. I EXPLICITLY separated out the concept of offense versus the idea of scoring so as not to run into this sort of plaintive argument. I have much more respect for Rose as an overall offensive player in 2011 than I do for for his performance specifically as a scorer. Please read back and notice that very careful separation.

What you aren't appreciating here is the gain of over leveraging Rose in his role,

Given that I was the one who raised that argument in the first place and that I made particular note of the difference in volume, I counter that this is a plainly false comment on your behalf.

I can get onboard with the first part about Melo, and maybe the second is just semantics, but a 'pretty good player' to me is Luol Deng that year, not Derrick Rose.

As I said, semantics. What you consider "pretty good" is not the same as what I do, particularly when I've labored repeatedly in a given post to qualify how I view a player and it's been ignored, time and again. I think well of Rose overall. I think less of his scoring, because it wasn't that remarkable compared to his peers, strictly constraining that comment to scoring and not overall play, nor overall offensive play.

Even if you personally would rank him lower, say 8th, a top 10 player is rarely ever discussed as merely 'decent' or 'pretty good'. Who is top a top 10 player this year, maybe Blake Griffin? Is Blake Griffin merely 'pretty good'...?

I would say Blake Griffin is indeed "pretty good." I am personally much more careful with my superlatives. I try to use them so as to retain their basic meaning. "Elite" is a big word for me, for example. I don't apply that to second- or third-tier stars, I reserve that for the best of the best, for example. You're tripping up on the differences between how we handle out labels and should pay more attention to the qualifying comments I've made, and the specific words I've used. They're important to the presentation and interpretation of my opinion.

I'm not trying to be pedantic or insulting here; I realize that most people just sort of throw terms around casually, but I've been intentionally specific about how I've presented this opinion for years and years, and I go out of my way to be as precise as possible in this matters for a reason.

[Rerisen]

I'm not trying to be pedantic or insulting here; I realize that most people just sort of throw terms around casually, but I've been intentionally specific about how I've presented this opinion for years and years, and I go out of my way to be as precise as possible in this matters for a reason.

Probably best to leave this then as a semantics difference as you suggested, and I'll accept you are extremely tight with positive adjectives. Because going back to the original disagreement, nothing you've written has aligned me with your description of even Rose's pre-injury finishing relative to normal NBA standards.

If you had added "compared to all time greats" in the sentence, I'm sure it would have made sense to me.

[tsherkin]

If you've had added "compared to all time greats" in the sentence, I'm sure it would have made sense to me.

That's your prerogative. I suspect you value volume element as a major contributing factor more than I do. The thing is, I repeatedly noted that my comparison was in context with a given set of players. I didn't compare him to Wade, Lebron, Durant and Kobe because I thought he was a pile of steaming garbage. I didn't say I thought of him as a better offensive player than Melo because I think he was a scrub.

Anyway, bringing it back to the original conversation as suggested, he's not 2011 Rose and he never will be again. Even IN that season, he was a +1% TS player, and he's not likely to be that guy unless the 3pt shooting sticks and a few other things line up for him... and realistically, the Knicks don't want to lean on him for that kind of volume shooting at this stage of his career anyhow. That's not even just on Rose, it's just a strategic issue. Unless you're an outlier of a scorer, then uber-volume is a mistake to begin with, and that aside, running your major scoring possessions through the smallest guy on the court while he goes after it on-ball is a weak decision because it leaves him largely unassisted. That's a low-efficiency set, particularly for guys who aren't good 3pt shooters. Prime Rose was something like 2015 Westbrook-level as a scorer... which is okay, within reasonable volume constraints, but more ideally suited to a second-scorer role while he's attacking out of the PnR and in transition, looking more for the pass than the shot. Back in the day, Rose certainly could have thrived more had he shot less, had he enjoyed the sort of offensive support which would have permitted the Bulls to deploy him that way.

Now? Now, his best stretch in basically a half-decade is below-average across the board. The Rose of now IS a weaker player who belongs on the bench, though obviously after years of rehab, time off and so forth, that's hardly unexpected. It'd be difficult for any player to come back from the succession of mobility injuries which afflicted Rose, especially since he was so dependent upon his quickness to be who he was when he was younger and healthier. But what was doesn't really matter now. The Knicks need to be looking in other directions unless Rose comes way, way cheaply.