Better record this year: Utah or Portland?

[Mystical Apples]

Could track scream frequency/decibels along with the new hustle stats. "Scream Assists." Or Advanced Boozers, if you will.

http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/hustle/?sort=SCREEN_ASSISTS&dir=1

[Blazer77]

It's a team game, so yes I'm going to point out team metrics. This thread is originally about Utah or Portland. I'm making the argument that my analysis of McCollum's contribution is in context to his team's success. That this method (and not simply individual statistics) is how I'm valuing an individual's impact. So now that I've been called silly and insane I suppose most of the things I say will be classified as such. Cool - that's fine. Look you guys are probably awesome fantasy owners ( ), and those stats are useful for determining a player's fantasy rating, but I really don't care about that. I care about wins. I care about going to the playoffs. I care about a player who understands (and thrives in) his role. That's why I want CJ. And Hayward has it too. I'm not saying he doesn't. But I'm picking CJ.

I actually love statistics, I don't hate them. I'm a guy who tries to create his own statistical analysis, has a degree that plays into stats, and uses stats in his job every day. I also coach basketball competitively at the high school level so I've got some perspective beyond statistics in how an individual's talents contribute to a team game. I'm telling you that it is a fact that the best TEAM's don't always have individuals with great individual statistics. And there's a ton of examples of players in the NBA, whose stats drastically changed from a losing team to a winning team and vice versa.

So to make a 1 to 1 comparison using advanced statistics (most of which by the way don't "destroy" McCollum - let's stay away from overstatements and superlatives) as the basis of all analysis, absent of how the team they played on performed; well that actually does seem insane to me. Results matter, right?

Because, the fact is that the team that CJ played on performed better, last year, and the year before (though his role was fundamentally different of course). So, I'm not somebody who is ignorant of advanced statistics; I'm just saying that my opinion from my own observable data is that I'd prefer McCollum.

And there are some logical reasons that I'm a bit skeptical of using advanced stats as the only methodology to compare players like Hayward and McCollum. One example? Shawn Marion. He has the the 28th highest career VORP. Higher than Kobe, Carmelo, Drexler, and and a number of other players who I would argue in favor of over Marion. Ron Artest is even rated higher than these three. I'm not sold on this as an effective barometer of how we should be comparing individual impact to the game. Even as a biased Blazer fan how can I argue Drexler > Kobe? And I love Clyde. So VORP must be flawed, right?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/vorp_career.html

The overall analysis that I'm making is that I believe that Portland will have a better season than Utah. Along the way I sidestepped into a Hayward v McCollum argument because my insanely silly opinion is that I'd rather have CJ than Gordon Hayward; who as I mention previously is a very good player in my opinion.

I guess we'll see. Time has a way of telling us who's insane (or silly) and it's not like I'm saying Hayward is trash!

[Kwakle]

Game 1: Portland

[pace31]

*no Favors, Hayward, and Portland shooting 66% from 3

In all serious though both teams actually looked really good and surprising sharp for game 1. The teams combined for 38/38 from the line. That HAS to be a record

[jazzfan1971]

If Portland plays like that every night they will be vying for the best record in the league.

[DusterBuster]

If Portland plays like that every night they will be vying for the best record in the league.

As someone who saw them live in a late preseason game, this didn't look too far off from what I was seeing. The only noticeable difference was CJ finally clicking.

[DusterBuster]

*no Favors, Hayward, and Portland shooting 66% from 3

In all serious though both teams actually looked really good and surprising sharp for game 1. The teams combined for 38/38 from the line. That HAS to be a record

Not a record, but first time since 2012 both teams combined for 100% FTs which is awesome.

Portland set a record for 16 straight home opener wins though apparently.

[Hidden Eye]

Utah Jazz

[pace31]

Portland is gonna be just like last year, but even more dangerous. On paper they just don't look special at all outside of Dame/CJ. Freaking Ed Davis, Aminu, Crabbe, etc. I just don't think would be special on any other team, but in POR they are huge contributors.

Stotts da bes

[Threethrows]

Johnson looks like a great addition to this team. He may not be the player he once was and certainly wont play THIS well every night, but it's good for the team to have someone that will take over when tough shots need to be taken until one of the young guys is ready to cement that role.

[Capn'O]

If Portland plays like that every night they will be vying for the best record in the league.

Nah - their late game defense was good but didn't play good enough D throughout to get that distinction. The guards were amazing though. Now if Vonleh can contribute consistently... then they may have something.

Jazz will be very good when they have their full complement of players. Especially if JJ can continue to turn back the clock in more of a reserve role.

[Roy The Natural]

Honestly Vonleh may be the sleeper here. Vonleh looked aboslutely fantastic out there. He's looked EXTREMELY promising in preseason as well.

If Vonleh can play well and continue to progress Portland's bigs will get a major unexpected boost. Vonleh and Ed Davis were absolutely a defensive revelation for the Blazers when they were on the floor together. Meyers just immediately keys the opponent into a major run. I've never understood any of the love Leonard gets. He's just an all-around bad player.

Utah was missing some of their better players so you've got to take it with a grain of salt. But Hood had a fantastic game offensively and your probably won't see a better game out of Joe Johnson all season long. Both teams definitely have a lot of young talent though, that's for sure.

[monopoman]

Yeah I am super excited about Vonleh, he might be like CJ McCollum last season comes out of nowhere to win Most Improved Player. He just looks sooo damn good and the biggest part is he is doing it all very consistently with whatever minutes Stotts gives him.

[Roy The Natural]

If Portland plays like that every night they will be vying for the best record in the league.

Nah - their late game defense was good but didn't play good enough D throughout to get that distinction. The guards were amazing though. Now if Vonleh can contribute consistently... then they may have something.

Jazz will be very good when they have their full complement of players. Especially if JJ can continue to turn back the clock in more of a reserve role.

Mainly an issue in the 3rd quarter. Plumlee is not very good defensively, and Leonard... well he's just a plain awful player. I think that the Blazers will need to iron out their rotation and see which lineups work. Vonleh and Ed Davis looked fantastic defensively when they played together.

[Capn'O]

If Portland plays like that every night they will be vying for the best record in the league.

Nah - their late game defense was good but didn't play good enough D throughout to get that distinction. The guards were amazing though. Now if Vonleh can contribute consistently... then they may have something.

Jazz will be very good when they have their full complement of players. Especially if JJ can continue to turn back the clock in more of a reserve role.

Mainly an issue in the 3rd quarter. Plumlee is not very good defensively, and Leonard... well he's just a plain awful player. I think that the Blazers will need to iron out their rotation and see which lineups work. Vonleh and Ed Davis looked fantastic defensively when they played together.

Yeah - those two are potentially the best bigs. Leonard will almost always be a liability because of his defense and Plumlee just isn't that talented. Vonleh is the x-factor for the year.

[monopoman]

Nah - their late game defense was good but didn't play good enough D throughout to get that distinction. The guards were amazing though. Now if Vonleh can contribute consistently... then they may have something.

Jazz will be very good when they have their full complement of players. Especially if JJ can continue to turn back the clock in more of a reserve role.

Mainly an issue in the 3rd quarter. Plumlee is not very good defensively, and Leonard... well he's just a plain awful player. I think that the Blazers will need to iron out their rotation and see which lineups work. Vonleh and Ed Davis looked fantastic defensively when they played together.

Yeah - those two are potentially the best bigs. Leonard will almost always be a liability because of his defense and Plumlee just isn't that talented. Vonleh is the x-factor for the year.

Plumlee fits the starting lineup well though, I think he will continue to start barring a few experimental games or if Plumlee gets injured.

[Chuck Everett]

Meyers Leonard is trash.

But Utah, when Joe Johnson and Diaw are coming off the bench with Burks and Exum, man the Jazz are going to have some serious depth.

[DusterBuster]

Yeah - those two are potentially the best bigs. Leonard will almost always be a liability because of his defense and Plumlee just isn't that talented. Vonleh is the x-factor for the year.

Leonard yes, but saying Plumlee isn't that talented is silly. He's not a traditional C, but he's got skill. He imo is the definition of a middle of the road C. He's much better than what a lot of teams spent a crap ton of money this summer to get or keep, but he's also not a top of the line C either. He's simply solid.

As for JJ, the dude is ageless. However, I question that teams ability to work everything together. Not because the pieces don't fit, but the fact they'll be having to work core guys into their rotation until at least Dec/Jan time. IIRC, they don't expect Hayward back until that time, and considering how many other guys they'll be working back into the lineup between now and then, it's already putting them at a disadvantage because guys roles and usage will be changing for the whole first third of the season. By which time most teams will already have their normal rotations set. I think this alone will put Utah in a bit of a whole early on which they'll have to play catchup with the 2nd half of the season.

[Mich3006]

Portland is gonna be just like last year, but even more dangerous. On paper they just don't look special at all outside of Dame/CJ. Freaking Ed Davis, Aminu, Crabbe, etc. I just don't think would be special on any other team, but in POR they are huge contributors.

Stotts da bes

This. There´s a reason Portland handed all those big contracts to mediocre players like Crabbe, Harkless or Turner -> they´re fitting to their system. And btw congrats to every Blazers fan for your owner...

It was only one game but the Blazers are ready...

[Roy The Natural]

Watch on YouTube

Played some excellent defense as well. Really interested to see how his season pans out. If he can be a consistent contributor it will be huge for the Blazers.