Biggest Wild Cards of the Season

[lakerhater]

As a GSW fan Kevon Looney is at the top of this list. His health is in question but he's added weight/strength and is up to 245 lbs. If his body can hold up he can be a factor for GSW this season.

He won't define the W's success but he has a lot of skills that could help their strength in numbers concept and he brings things to the table other W's bigs don't (3 Pt shooting and ball handling)

It's unlikely but possible Looney (far) exceeds expectations and provides the W's with yet another weapon.

This comes off as the most snide wild card I've ever read in one of these threads. Like the only question your team has is whether Kevin Looney is going to be healthy.

You are reminding me of Laker fans during the Kobe era. SMH.

Take it how you want but I feel pretty comfortable about the rest of the roster and I think the biggest surprise for GSW could well be the progress of one of their youngsters to fill one of their few voids.

It's not like the W's vets are going to surprise anyone this season, they've just finished a record setting regular season and added Durant plus a couple of long time vets. I think it's safe to say none of the W's vets will surprise anybody this season.

[Scalabrine]

I'd say Rose is anti-wild card. Few players have been as consistently bad with a knowable outcome from his large, 4 most recent seasons sample size. Whatever untapped reserve people think remains was wiped out by injury + he's 28 now, which wouldn't be nearly the same problem if he could shoot, pass, defend, or had a usage < 28%.

Plus the Knicks will have dreadful shooting and passing so it's hard to see how Rose provides anything above replacement level. Noah is a talented passer but besides Lee he'll be surrounded by a collection of high usage scorers who don't space the floor and need the rock. Not to mention Noah's presence will slide Porzingas and Anthony down a position and compound the traffic jam.

Melo shoots 34% but is still a very dangerous 3 point shooter and won't just be given 3's.

Porzingis is 7'3 who shot 33% from three last year and will probably shoot it even better this year.

Lee shot 39% from 3 last year and is a career 38%.

Lance Thomas shot over 40% from 3 last year.

Sasha, while not likely to play a ton, still shot 36% last year and has always been a consistent 3 point shooter.

Justin Holiday shot 43.3% last year with the Bulls from 3.

Even Noah and O'Quinn can step out and hit mid-range jumpers.

Thats alot of above average 3 point shooters. Our BIGGEST problem last year was getting out in transition and getting into the paint. We were at the bottom of the league in both those categories. I am not expecting MVP or even All Star level play from Rose and Jennings, did I say I was? They will definitely be better than Calderon was, and they both bring skills to the team that we severely lack. I don't know how you can really argue that...

Even if Rose is the 20th best point guard in the league (I'd say he's between 14-20 right now), it's still miles ahead of what we had last year. If Rose gets hurt and we have Jennings as our starting point guard, it's still better than what he had last year.

[Mystical Apples]

I'd say Rose is anti-wild card. Few players have been as consistently bad with a knowable outcome from his large, 4 most recent seasons sample size. Whatever untapped reserve people think remains was wiped out by injury + he's 28 now, which wouldn't be nearly the same problem if he could shoot, pass, defend, or had a usage < 28%.

Plus the Knicks will have dreadful shooting and passing so it's hard to see how Rose provides anything above replacement level. Noah is a talented passer but besides Lee he'll be surrounded by a collection of high usage scorers who don't space the floor and need the rock. Not to mention Noah's presence will slide Porzingas and Anthony down a position and compound the traffic jam.

Melo shoots 34% but is still a very dangerous 3 point shooter and won't just be given 3's.

Porzingis is 7'3 who shot 33% from three last year and will probably shoot it even better this year.

Lee shot 39% from 3 last year and is a career 38%.

Lance Thomas shot over 40% from 3 last year.

Sasha, while not likely to play a ton, still shot 36% last year and has always been a consistent 3 point shooter.

Justin Holiday shot 43.3% last year with the Bulls from 3.

Even Noah and O'Quinn can step out and hit mid-range jumpers.

Thats alot of above average 3 point shooters. Our BIGGEST problem last year was getting out in transition and getting into the paint. We were at the bottom of the league in both those categories. I am not expecting MVP or even All Star level play from Rose and Jennings, did I say I was? They will definitely be better than Calderon was, and they both bring skills to the team that we severely lack. I don't know how you can really argue that...

Even if Rose is the 20th best point guard in the league (I'd say he's between 14-20 right now), it's still miles ahead of what we had last year. If Rose gets hurt and we have Jennings as our starting point guard, it's still better than what he had last year.

Yeah I don't see that adding up. Looking at his ON/OFF the Bulls were 5.1 points better without Rose which for teams overall is around a 15 win swing. His -1.9 Wins Over Replacement was 110 out of 115 guards and his daily RAPM 6th to dead last for every player > 15 minutes (only ahead of Mudiay, Foye, Snell, Archie Goodwin, and Stanley Johnson). Those numbers in addition to an RPM of 76 out of 80 PG's place him solidly in 3RD PG territory.

His personal stats aren't any prettier: 44.8% eFG, 47.9% TS, and .95 Points Per Possession on high usage are numbers you'd expect from rookies on bad teams. Really, I think the best outcome is Jennings semi-returning to form and beating Rose for the starting gig.

Regarding floor spacing, the numbers you cited only work if we overlook minute allocations and sample sizes. Lee is legit in C&S but he's the only Knick above 35% from 3 (NBA average) who isn't below replacement level overall. Holiday shot just 60 threes last season and is a career 32.5% shooter. Thomas has a TOTAL of 132 career attempts. Shasha Vuc...well 3P shooting is the least of the Knicks worries if relying upon those 3 for solid rotation minutes.

I'd expect Porzingas to crack 35% but from PF and Melo at SF reduces their floor spacing value slightly. I'd rather see Porzingas at the 5 but besides Noah, Hernangomez also needs minutes there.

Points Per Possession: http://nbawowy.com/#/
Daily RAPM: http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/dre-single-game-and-season-long/
ON/OFF: http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612741/onoffcourt/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1
Wins Over Replacement: http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/sfjBS
RPM: http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/1

[lakerhater]

As a GSW fan Kevon Looney is at the top of this list. His health is in question but he's added weight/strength and is up to 245 lbs. If his body can hold up he can be a factor for GSW this season.

He won't define the W's success but he has a lot of skills that could help their strength in numbers concept and he brings things to the table other W's bigs don't (3 Pt shooting and ball handling)

It's unlikely but possible Looney (far) exceeds expectations and provides the W's with yet another weapon.

This comes off as the most snide wild card I've ever read in one of these threads. Like the only question your team has is whether Kevin Looney is going to be healthy.

You are reminding me of Laker fans during the Kobe era. SMH.

It's early and things can easily change but it looks as though Looney is earning a rotation spot due to his rebounding which is sorely needed by the W's. He played a solid game with important minutes against NOP.

[Cappy_Smurf]

Dante Exum - He is such a talented defender. I hope it begins to click for him on offense this season. If he can give George Hill some competition at the point and maybe even take the starting job, then we should be in great shape.

Alec Burks - Dude hasn't been healthy for 2 seasons now. When he's healthy he's a solid slashing guard with a surprisingly good three-point shot and a decent defender on the other end. Only question now is can he stay healthy with his attack-the-basket playstyle. Hopefully the additions of Hill, Johnson, Exum, and Diaw help prevent his reckless style a bit.

Rodney Hood - I truly believe that Hood can make a jump to 20+ PPG this season. He's one of the best isolation players in the league, he's excellent in the pick-and-roll, and he'll benefit from playing with Hill and Exum instead of Neto and Burke. Helps that Joe Johnson, his childhood idle, is now on the squad to mentor him. His game really does remind me of JJ. Just needs to bulk up a little bit and trust in himself. He hit some big time shots last year, I hope he comes into this year with confidence. If he puts up what he did last year, Utah will be a good team. If he gets up to that 20 PPG area, the Jazz will be a top 3 seed in the West.

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I'll just go ahead and guarantee that there is 0% chance that Exum can take the starting spot from Hill this year. I like Exum and think he'll be a very good player, but right now Hill is a much, much better player.

As for the wild card for Utah, I believe it's the health of Favors and Gobert. Those are the two players we can't afford to lose for any significant amount of time. Otherwise, our depth should allow us to cover for injuries, even Hayward.

[JazzMan_OS]

Dante Exum - He is such a talented defender. I hope it begins to click for him on offense this season. If he can give George Hill some competition at the point and maybe even take the starting job, then we should be in great shape.

Alec Burks - Dude hasn't been healthy for 2 seasons now. When he's healthy he's a solid slashing guard with a surprisingly good three-point shot and a decent defender on the other end. Only question now is can he stay healthy with his attack-the-basket playstyle. Hopefully the additions of Hill, Johnson, Exum, and Diaw help prevent his reckless style a bit.

Rodney Hood - I truly believe that Hood can make a jump to 20+ PPG this season. He's one of the best isolation players in the league, he's excellent in the pick-and-roll, and he'll benefit from playing with Hill and Exum instead of Neto and Burke. Helps that Joe Johnson, his childhood idle, is now on the squad to mentor him. His game really does remind me of JJ. Just needs to bulk up a little bit and trust in himself. He hit some big time shots last year, I hope he comes into this year with confidence. If he puts up what he did last year, Utah will be a good team. If he gets up to that 20 PPG area, the Jazz will be a top 3 seed in the West.

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I'll just go ahead and guarantee that there is 0% chance that Exum can take the starting spot from Hill this year. I like Exum and think he'll be a very good player, but right now Hill is a much, much better player.

As for the wild card for Utah, I believe it's the health of Favors and Gobert. Those are the two players we can't afford to lose for any significant amount of time. Otherwise, our depth should allow us to cover for injuries, even Hayward.

Yup, I did not anticipate Hill being this sound offensively. He's really won me over these first two games. Such a smart, tough player.

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