Rookies worth a first round pick in bball fantasy

[bringWallyBack]

Simple question, has there been a rookie worth a first round pick in a fantasy draft?

Obviously no rookie will be a top 10 or 20 player right out of the gate but has there been one worth the gamble?

For example, a rookie Kevin Durant and LeBron James inherited best player roles in their respective teams. We were aware of the talent they brought and we knew they would be the first option on the team.

Players like them are easy steals in a way because they'll put up the stats.

Talking to my coworker he mentioned the risk of injury or a player being a bust but that's a risk we are taking with every player drafted. No veteran has assurance over a rookie when the season starts.

What he did mentioned was that maybe they are worth drafting in the second or third round.

I guess additional questions or thoughts can be:

1) what round would you draft the players mentioned knowing what you know?

2) has there been other players worth considering drafting that early?

[PerkinsFor3]

Simple answer: viewforum.php?f=39

But Karl Anthony Towns put in 1st round value last season (12th in 9 cat leagues) just last year. For reference: Anthony Davis was #25 as a rookie, which made him a 2nd rounder. Kyrie #38 as a rookie, 3rd round. Before that, Steph Curry was the last rookie to put in a 1st round season at #11. Chris Paul was close with a #17th ranked rookie season.


Edit:

Average value (rank) for rookies over past 10 years - #304
Average round value for rookies over past 10 years: - 25th

Excluding second rounders:

Average value (rank) for 1st round rookies over past 10 years - #256
Average round value for 1st round rookies over past 10 years: - 22nd

[PDX MM]

Michael Jordan as a rookie only put up 28.2 pts, 6.5 rebs, 6 assists, 2.5 stls, and almost 1 block per game. That is worthy of the #1 pick in any fantasy draft. While not common there are others that have done very well in their rookie year to warrant a first round pick...esp in keeper leagues.

[CarMalone]

Michael Jordan as a rookie only put up 28.2 pts, 6.5 rebs, 6 assists, 2.5 stls, and almost 1 block per game. That is worthy of the #1 pick in any fantasy draft. While not common there are others that have done very well in their rookie year to warrant a first round pick...esp in keeper leagues.

Interestingly enough, Jordan was second in the league that season in PER, WS, WS/48. His 25.8 PER would have been sixth highest last season in between Kawhi Leonard and Hassan Whiteside.

[clip set]

Rookie Shaq probably would have had first round value even in non keeper leagues.

[OrangeBlueSkies]

In general I think Simmons could be used as a second round pick this year, depending on how deep your draft is.

[qwerty1234]

In general I think Simmons could be used as a second round pick this year, depending on how deep your draft is.

In a 60 team dynasty league maybe

[OrangeBlueSkies]

In general I think Simmons could be used as a second round pick this year, depending on how deep your draft is.

In a 60 team dynasty league maybe

What? In a 12-man league I could see Simmons being picked somewhere in the second round.


Projected?

1 Stephen Curry, GS PG .490 .904 3.8 4.1 7.6 2.1 0.2 23.8
2 Kevin Durant, GS SF .512 .877 2.2 6.9 4.7 1.2 0.8 28.1
3 James Harden, Hou SG .459 .871 2.7 5.3 5.9 2.0 0.6 27.2
4 Russell Westbrook, OKC PG .437 .828 1.3 6.6 8.0 2.0 0.2 24.4
5 Karl-Anthony Towns, Min C .496 .802 0.2 8.1 0.9 0.6 2.0 14.9
6 Kawhi Leonard, SA SF .491 .813 1.3 7.5 2.7 2.3 0.8 19.0
7 Anthony Davis, Nor PF DTD .530 .808 0.4 10.4 2.8 1.5 3.0 26.0
8 LeBron James, Cle SF .502 .727 1.9 6.2 7.3 1.6 0.6 24.8
9 DeMarcus Cousins, Sac C .475 .762 0.0 12.7 4.0 1.7 1.7 24.4
10 Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mil SF .495 .746 0.3 7.0 2.7 1.2 1.3 13.6
11 Hassan Whiteside, Mia PF .599 .491 0.0 11.9 0.1 0.7 2.6 14.5
12 Draymond Green, GS SF .443 .663 1.4 8.3 3.9 1.6 1.5 11.9
13 John Wall, Wsh PG DTD .450 .799 0.8 4.4 9.9 1.8 0.6 17.4
14 Paul George, Ind SF .433 .841 2.2 7.4 3.7 1.8 0.6 22.5
15 Damian Lillard, Por PG DTD .420 .865 2.8 4.8 6.5 1.1 0.3 25.5
16 Chris Paul, LAC PG .488 .887 1.8 4.2 10.9 2.1 0.2 18.8
17 Kemba Walker, Cha PG .401 .833 1.3 3.6 5.4 1.5 0.4 17.3
18 Kyle Lowry, Tor PG .415 .809 2.0 4.8 7.1 1.7 0.2 18.7
19 Paul Millsap, Atl PF .480 .748 1.1 8.0 3.2 1.7 1.0 17.1
20 Klay Thompson, GS SG .467 .889 3.2 3.1 3.0 1.2 0.6 22.7
21 Isaiah Thomas, Bos PG .434 .864 2.0 2.5 5.8 1.0 0.1 19.3
22 Victor Oladipo, OKC SG .443 .806 1.2 4.3 4.2 1.9 0.3 18.8
23 Eric Bledsoe, Pho PG DTD .452 .794 1.2 5.3 6.1 1.7 0.6 18.0
24 C.J. McCollum, Por PG

[Tinseltown]

Michael Jordan as a rookie only put up 28.2 pts, 6.5 rebs, 6 assists, 2.5 stls, and almost 1 block per game. That is worthy of the #1 pick in any fantasy draft. While not common there are others that have done very well in their rookie year to warrant a first round pick...esp in keeper leagues.

I'd much rather have current LeBron than 85 MJ.

[Kabookalu]

In general I think Simmons could be used as a second round pick this year, depending on how deep your draft is.

I think that's a giant leap of faith. He's not going to give you 3's, which is huge, and if his FT% translates from college, he'll hurt you at the line. Philly is stacked with big men, so I don't expect his rebounds to be high. Given this is his rookie year, we should expect him to be high in turnovers. In the end what you're hoping for is FG%, steals, and assists. Having a big man, assuming he plays the 4, that gets you assists is nice, but he'll be a non factor in blocks.

Might be good in 3 categories, average in 1, below average in 1, bad in 1, and a complete detriment in 2, isn't second round material.

[PerkinsFor3]

Ben Simmons as a rookie projects to be around the same value as a slightly improvved Turner, but with worse TO and FT.

[PDX MM]

Michael Jordan as a rookie only put up 28.2 pts, 6.5 rebs, 6 assists, 2.5 stls, and almost 1 block per game. That is worthy of the #1 pick in any fantasy draft. While not common there are others that have done very well in their rookie year to warrant a first round pick...esp in keeper leagues.

I'd much rather have current LeBron than 85 MJ.

I wouldn't so I guess we both get what we want.