Patches Perry wrote:I would love to see you connect the dots with a syllogism to simplify this whole thing.
Ok, I am going to truncate your post to get to the salient points:
In the context of rebounding, try to visualize what happens on a missed shot in the NBA in a standard half court offense:
1) On a short rebound, the ball bounces off the rim, one or more times. It goes into the air. While the ball is in the air for a relatively short period of time, the players under the rim try to anticipate the trajectory of the ball as well as fight for position. This means the following:
a) Quickness is of limited benefit because players tend to get to the spot before the ball does
b) Even if you wanted to take a direct path to the ball, you often cannot because bodies are in the way
c) If the offensive team is going for the rebound, it's nearly impossible not to have someone with 4 feet of a ball less than 6 feet from the rim. An opposing center standing near the rim will, by definition, contest most rebounds within 6 feet of the rim, never mind opposing forwards and guards
d) The margin for error in judgement is relatively small -- a player who misreads the speed of the ball off the rim might misjudge it by 1-2 feet but won't miss by 5
d) If a player does somehow win a ball by quickness, he's not getting 4 feet of separation because that's physically impossible in the second or so before the ball arrives
So the only situation where you're getting a ball within 6 feet of the rim and 4 feet away from an opposing player is either a) where the other team is not trying to rebound, b) the opposing team hasn't gotten in position to rebound or c) where teammates have done a good enough job of boxing out that no one can get within 4 feet of the ball
2) For long rebounds, sure, it takes the ball longer to arrive and there's a much greater margin for error in misjudging the ball, so speed and anticipation play a much larger role. I could completely believe that Westbrook would post better numbers on these balls but the data shows he does not (at least not materially more from other good rebounding guards)
Patches Perry wrote:To me, your argument is akin to discrediting a great scorer (player x) because most of his shots are open (by some arbitrary number of feet) even though that players ability to create open shots is the reason he is always open. Then circling back around and saying player y scores almost as much, but all of his points are not open. It seriously lacks context.
It's funny you say this because people absolutely do judge shooters on whether they primarily shoot contested or uncontested shots. That was a big knock on Harrison Barnes when he was on the Warriors: he was shooting a lot of wide open 3s. A player who creates his own shot generally isn't getting 4 feet of separation on a defender, at least not unless it's one of those 'ankle breaker' moments that make all of the highlights
Patches Perry wrote:A) The OKC bigs role in this is easy and easily replaceable. Boxing out and keeping your man away for the short period of time it takes for Westbrook to track the ball is not difficult - especially if you are not tasked with actually pursuing the ball yourself. Literally every team has guys who can do this.
My biggest issue here, not just with your post but with the emphasis on guard triple doubles is this: big men boxing out well IS the key skill here. Adams is the guy who is creating most of the value here, not Westbrook. It's ridiculous for people to ignore that and focus on the raw stats and shame on any OKC fan who disses Adams to promote Westbrook
Patches Perry wrote:D) I agree that his spike in rebounding numbers is not because of some newly formed skill, but rather an ability he has had for years but is now being utilized better, and something he has been tasked to focus on. To me, this doesn't mean his rebounding numbers are overrated this year as much as his ability to rebound was underrated in years past. Again, see Curry's shooting ability. He didn't magically become a better shooter in 2016. He was a monster at Davidson and could always shoot the lights out. It was a better situation. This doesn't mean he was overrated in 2016 but his shooting was underused in prior years.
You keep comparing rebounding to shooting but they are very different. First, rebounding is an individual skill, not a team skill. You don't need your team to give you 'rebounding attempts' (although, admittedly, offense and defensive responsibilities can limit a player's access to rebounds) and Dennis Rodman, for example, didn't require his teammates to pass or screen for him to get rebounds. While a young player's body development might help him grab rebounders, it's really not an acquired skill. Great rebounders are great rebounders and don't need a scheme to enable it. It's also worth noting that, with the SportVU data that we have, the players considered the best rebounders by their peers all get a lot of contested rebounds.
And, to sum it all up, that's the crux of the issue: if Westbrook's rebounding greatly improved, or the team 'cutting him free' to rebound more was truly what happened,
his contested rebound numbers would have materially increased as well. If Westbrook were so quick that he was regularly beating guys by 4 feet to make a contested rebound into unconstested, that would imply that he would also sometimes beat them by 3 feet, or 2 feet and grab more contested rebounds, too. So, ALL of his rebounding numbers would have increased. Also, if unleashing Westbrook's magical rebounding was what happened, you'd expect OKC's rebounding numbers to increase, or at least stay relatively stable (i.e. losing KD and Ibaka but increasing Westbrook's role and adding Sabonis -- not to mention Pido, who's a pretty good rebounder for a guard) -- but OK's rebounding numbers have gone down this year from last: TRB 48.6 to 45.6, DRB% from 78.0 to 76.0, ORB% from 31.1 to 26.0.
So, objectively speaking, what does that tell you?
“I pretty much played the last three games with a broken hand,” James said as he sat there with a softcast on the right hand.
