2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

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Who will win MVP?

Curry
12
3%
Durant
3
1%
Harden
112
31%
LeBron
42
12%
Leonard
60
17%
Westbrook
109
30%
Other
20
6%
 
Total votes: 358

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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1361 » by RCM88x » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:40 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:I love how being the 1 seed is a plus for the LeBron even though they have a worse record than the Rockets lol


Well, raw W/L record is 100% meaningless, the only thing that has any actual value is your record relative to the other teams in the conference.

Well if the Rockets played in the East they'd have a better record so idk about that

Well if the Cavs didn't rest players they'd have a better record...
Well if the Cavs had more competition in the east for the top seed they'd have a better record
Well if...
Well if the Cavs had Kevin Durant they'd have the best record in the league...

I don't see your point.

And I don't even know if you can claim that...

The Rockets are 19-10 against the East this season, and 29-12 against the West... so it seems like they'd have a worse record if you base it on something factual.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1362 » by Yank3525 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:42 pm

INKtastic wrote:
Yank3525 wrote:
INKtastic wrote:
LeBron post all star break - 27.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 8.8 assists, .562 shooting, .632 TS%, PER 29.6


And, how does this refute my point?

Westbrook: 34.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 11.4 APG. .408 FG%, .562 TS%, PER 35.1

He isn't the best regular season performer anymore and hasn't been for years, which is expected since he is 32 and has 14 years of wear and tear.


Wow, that's ridiculous. As long as LeBron is the best player in June (or 2nd best to Kyrie, who has really broken out lately), I'm happy. I just voted for Westbook in the poll.


Yeah.

I would take Lebron over anyone in the playoffs by a fairly decent margin.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1363 » by LivingLegend » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:42 pm

RCM88x wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:I love how being the 1 seed is a plus for the LeBron even though they have a worse record than the Rockets lol


Well, raw W/L record is 100% meaningless, the only thing that has any actual value is your record relative to the other teams in the conference.


If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.
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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1364 » by K_chile22 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:52 pm

LivingLegend wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:I love how being the 1 seed is a plus for the LeBron even though they have a worse record than the Rockets lol


Well, raw W/L record is 100% meaningless, the only thing that has any actual value is your record relative to the other teams in the conference.


If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.

Missing games has never, and will never, help an MVP candidate.
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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1365 » by LivingLegend » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:58 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
LivingLegend wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
Well, raw W/L record is 100% meaningless, the only thing that has any actual value is your record relative to the other teams in the conference.


If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.

Missing games has never, and will never, help an MVP candidate.


When the team goes 4-18 over the past 3 seasons without him playing and they are 1-6 this season without him. I think it shows how valuable he actually is to the team. IF he missed 15-25 games then yes, but hes not.

1-6 without
45-18 with

This also goes back the fact of his power in general.

2009 Cavs- 61-21 With LeBron
2010 Cavs- 19-63 Without LeBron

2014 Heat- 54-28 with LeBron
2015 Heat- 37-45 without LeBron

2016 Cavs- 45-18 with LeBron
2016 Cavs- 1-6 without LeBron


So not only is he the undisputed best player in the NBA, but looking at the records of when he plays and his +15.1 on/off that dwarfs Harden/Westbrooks.. who is really more valuable because the actual numbers say LeBrons impact is much greater impact than both of them and it makes them look like nothing more than high volume chuckers with sky high turnover and useage rates who both dont play defense.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1366 » by Tritodian » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:28 pm

NormanDale wrote:Both in RealGM and among professional reporters, there seems to be a lot of cherry-picking stats to argue against Westbrook, who seems to be 4th on many people's lists despite having a season we haven't seen for more than 50 years and being the obvious pick.

Don't act like it's just ignoramuses seduced by counting-stats who support Russ' candidacy. Russ leads the league by substantial margins in VORP (10.8 to Harden's 8.0), BPM (14.9 to Harden's 10.4) and PER (30.4 to Harden's 27.8, and Kawhi's 28.0). He also leads in assist rate, 56.6 to Harden's 50.9, a testament to the fact that Harden's "raw" assist lead is in large part a product of the quality of his teammates.

The big case for Harden seems to be that his team has won 8 more games than Westbrook's team, even though it's acknowledged that a big part of the gap comes from the massive difference in the two teams when their stars are off the court--Westbrook's team falls off a cliff, Harden's does not.

Also: I'm as big of a fan of advanced stats as anyone, but let's not completely dismiss the 30-10-10. As recently as a year ago, Big-O's numbers were seen as a relic of a strange, mythical era when the game looked nothing like it does today, as unlikely to be repeated as Wilt's 50 ppg. When Westbrook did it for the first couple months, everyone said, "this is amazing, but there's no way he'll keep it up." He has, and now we're all pretending it's not that big a deal. Except it is. It's insane.

And the eye test backs up how incredible what Westbrook is doing is. While I love Harden's game, and think he would be worthy of the MVP in almost any other year, I have never in my life seen anything like Westbrook this season, a freight-train going 100 mph all the damn time, putting the team on his shoulders and fighting all comers like the hero in a kung-fu movie. It's electrifying.

It's one of those things where you look at the stats and you say, "How is that even possible in 2017??" Then you watch him play, and you go, "Ohhh, that's how it's possible. You have to be a **** maniac every day for 6 straight months."

When you play at a consistent intensity and quality level that rivals the best seasons we've ever seen (certainly among the best I've ever seen, and I've been watching the NBA consistently since 1991), and when the eye-test, the advanced-stats, and the traditional stats all back that up...then, I'm sorry, but you're the MVP.


Cherry-picking is what you're doing in this post. The problem with Westbrook is he's not really exceptionally good at anything if you look at the quality of his stats vs quantity.

Is WB a great scorer? Well, he takes the most shots per game so he averages a lot of points, but only with sub-par efficiency (TS%, eFG%, etc.)

Is WB a great rebounder? He leads the league in uncontested rebounds and free throw rebounds, so excuse me if I don't find that impressive.

IS WB a great passer? He has mediocre AST/TOV ratio.

is WB a great defender? He's a below average defender at best.

You could levy the same criticisms at Harden, but Harden at least is a very efficient scorer. Also, Harden averages more secondary assists, potential assists, and creates more points from his assists per game. http://stats.nba.com/players/passing/#!?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

- Westbrook's 30-10-10 has to be understood within the context of his historically high usage rates. He runs the whole show in OKC - and whether it's a good thing is up to interpretation - but in terms of piling up raw stats, Westbrook is in a best situation to do that.

- One of the major problems with PER is that it is known for rewarding 'chuckers'. The more you shoot, the better PER you'll likely to end up with, regardless of efficiency.

https://skepticalsports.com/tag/per/

PER Rewards Shooting (and Punishes Not Shooting)
As described by David Berri, PER is well-known to reward inefficient shooting:

“Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.”

The consequences of this should be properly understood: Since this feature of PER applies to every shot taken, it is not only the inefficient players who inflate their stats. PER gives a boost to everyone for every shot: Bad players who take bad shots can look merely mediocre, mediocre players who take mediocre shots can look like good players, and good players who take good shots can look like stars. For Dennis Rodman’s case—as someone who took very few shots, good or bad— the necessary converse of this is even more significant: since PER is a comparative statistic (even directly adjusted by league averages), players who don’t take a lot of shots are punished.


FYI, Westbrook takes 5.5 more shot attempts per game than Harden, despite being far less efficient.

- BPM, VORP rewards rebounds, but as everyone knows by now, Westbrook leads the league in uncontested free rebounds.

- If Westbrook wins MVP, he will be the one with lowest FG%, TS%, eFG% since Iverson 16 years ago.

- If Westbrook wins MVP, he will be the one with lowest team record since Moses Malone 35 years ago.

- Westbrook is not even top 5 in Win Shares and WS/48.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1367 » by RightToCensor » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:31 pm

They 45-18 translates to 58 wins in a whole season, which isn't far off from Harden. You can get into an argument about conference strength, but the difference in wins isn't big enough to argue about. Especially with the amount of games Lebron takes off to refresh his body.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1368 » by Tritodian » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm

RightToCensor wrote:They 45-18 translates to 58 wins in a whole season, which isn't far off from Harden. You can get into an argument about conference strength, but the difference in wins isn't big enough to argue about. Especially with the amount of games Lebron takes off to refresh his body.


Also, LeBron plays with Kyrie freakin' Irving who just dropped 46 points yesterday. Who in Houston or OKC besides Harden and Westbrook can do that? The fact that Lebron's name is still in contention baffles me. In my view, he comes at 4th behind Harden, Kahwi, and Westbrook.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1369 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:46 pm

BallerTalk wrote:
bmurph128 wrote:
BallerTalk wrote:
I suspect that's because when they campaign for Lebron and everyone knows he has one of the deepest rosters in the league, full of several players he hand picked, on a team with the highest payroll in NBA history, it sounds a little less impressive when they have to admit they only have the 4th best record in the league.



Not at all. Last year we had the 3rd best record, but the Raptors and Thunder were right there with us. We don't care about that.

When campaigning for LeBron, people will bring up how the Cavs are better than the Rockets when LeBron has played this year....which is valid and credible to an individual MVP discussion.


Even a rabid Cavs homer like you has to know that argument doesn't end well for Lebron as it goes straight to his history of picking and choosing game to voluntarily miss.
NO ONE is going to penalize players like Harden and Westbrook for showing up every night.



I don't think I'm a "rabid Cavs homer"; I am not even saying LeBron SHOULD win MVP - I was just pointing out what someone who was campaigning for LeBron would say.

And I don't know what you mean by choosing games to voluntarily miss - by several accounts LeBron was pissed Saturday when Lue told him he was taking the night off.
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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1370 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:53 pm

LivingLegend wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:
LivingLegend wrote:
If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.

Missing games has never, and will never, help an MVP candidate.


When the team goes 4-18 over the past 3 seasons without him playing and they are 1-6 this season without him. I think it shows how valuable he actually is to the team. IF he missed 15-25 games then yes, but hes not.

1-6 without
45-18 with

This also goes back the fact of his power in general.

2009 Cavs- 61-21 With LeBron
2010 Cavs- 19-63 Without LeBron

2014 Heat- 54-28 with LeBron
2015 Heat- 37-45 without LeBron

2016 Cavs- 45-18 with LeBron
2016 Cavs- 1-6 without LeBron


So not only is he the undisputed best player in the NBA, but looking at the records of when he plays and his +15.1 on/off that dwarfs Harden/Westbrooks.. who is really more valuable because the actual numbers say LeBrons impact is much greater impact than both of them and it makes them look like nothing more than high volume chuckers with sky high turnover and useage rates who both dont play defense.



What one game did we win without LeBron this year?
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1371 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:55 pm

RightToCensor wrote:They 45-18 translates to 58 wins in a whole season, which isn't far off from Harden. You can get into an argument about conference strength, but the difference in wins isn't big enough to argue about. Especially with the amount of games Lebron takes off to refresh his body.



It's more drastic if you look at it as winning % versus total wins.

And the Rockets have a worse record against the East than they do the West, so I don't think conference strength will help them much.
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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1372 » by K_chile22 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:00 pm

bmurph128 wrote:
RightToCensor wrote:They 45-18 translates to 58 wins in a whole season, which isn't far off from Harden. You can get into an argument about conference strength, but the difference in wins isn't big enough to argue about. Especially with the amount of games Lebron takes off to refresh his body.



It's more drastic if you look at it as winning % versus total wins.

And the Rockets have a worse record against the East than they do the West, so I don't think conference strength will help them much.

That's likely due to sample size though. Give them a few more games against the Nets, Sixers and Knicks and it will go up
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1373 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:18 pm

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=03%2F24%2F2017&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1


For people talking about Harden as MVP though, and especially versus the Cavs supporting cast - how can Harden be viewed as the most valuable player when his team seems to do better with him off the court?

EDIT: numbers are since 12/1
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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1374 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:30 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
bmurph128 wrote:
RightToCensor wrote:They 45-18 translates to 58 wins in a whole season, which isn't far off from Harden. You can get into an argument about conference strength, but the difference in wins isn't big enough to argue about. Especially with the amount of games Lebron takes off to refresh his body.



It's more drastic if you look at it as winning % versus total wins.

And the Rockets have a worse record against the East than they do the West, so I don't think conference strength will help them much.

That's likely due to sample size though. Give them a few more games against the Nets, Sixers and Knicks and it will go up



And a few less games against the Lakers, Suns and Kings and it will go back down.

It would be different obviously if the Rockets were actually in the East, just as it would be different if the Cavs were actually in the West. If nothing else, it really dampens the whole "if they played in the East" argument.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1375 » by Edrees » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:31 pm

LivingLegend wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:I love how being the 1 seed is a plus for the LeBron even though they have a worse record than the Rockets lol


Well, raw W/L record is 100% meaningless, the only thing that has any actual value is your record relative to the other teams in the conference.


If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.


He sat out games when healthy. That's on him and should be used against him. Same with Kawhi. A valuable player actually plays games. You can't be valuable when you sit. Otherwise I could make an argument as Embiid for MVP assuming he played 48 mins a game 82 games. If Embiid played 48 mins a game 82 games this season he'd be in the conversation at least but he isn't because you can't help your team when you miss games and play limited minutes.

Of course Lebron has tons of reasons to be MVP, but I think it's fair to use his team record even when he sits, because you aren't helping your team win games when you sit.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1376 » by Gil » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:32 pm

bmurph128 wrote:http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=03%2F24%2F2017&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1


For people talking about Harden as MVP though, and especially versus the Cavs supporting cast - how can Harden be viewed as the most valuable player when his team seems to do better with him off the court?

EDIT: numbers are since 12/1

Great numbers man. I'm sure Houston would be better off without Harden.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1377 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:36 pm

Gil wrote:
bmurph128 wrote:http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=03%2F24%2F2017&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1


For people talking about Harden as MVP though, and especially versus the Cavs supporting cast - how can Harden be viewed as the most valuable player when his team seems to do better with him off the court?

EDIT: numbers are since 12/1

Great numbers man. I'm sure Houston would be better off without Harden.



Well, I said "seems to do better with him off the court" - which is statistically backed up by those numbers.

I definitely don't think that the Rockets would do better without him - but that's a prerequisite to even get into the MVP conversation. If anybody, myself included, thought that the Rockets would actually be better off without him, I wouldn't even acknowledge that he was in the MVP race.

The point of value - and where LeBron/Westbrook/Curry separate themselves from Harden and Kawhi - has widely been accepted that it's how valuable that player is to their team. And if we're comparing those 5 guys in that capacity, Harden (and Kawhi) are out. It's not used to determine MVP necessarily - but can be used as a tiebreaker.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1378 » by BallerTalk » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:36 pm

bmurph128 wrote:
BallerTalk wrote:
bmurph128 wrote:

Not at all. Last year we had the 3rd best record, but the Raptors and Thunder were right there with us. We don't care about that.

When campaigning for LeBron, people will bring up how the Cavs are better than the Rockets when LeBron has played this year....which is valid and credible to an individual MVP discussion.


Even a rabid Cavs homer like you has to know that argument doesn't end well for Lebron as it goes straight to his history of picking and choosing game to voluntarily miss.
NO ONE is going to penalize players like Harden and Westbrook for showing up every night.



I don't think I'm a "rabid Cavs homer"; I am not even saying LeBron SHOULD win MVP - I was just pointing out what someone who was campaigning for LeBron would say.

And I don't know what you mean by choosing games to voluntarily miss - by several accounts LeBron was pissed Saturday when Lue told him he was taking the night off.


It's okay. Most homers don't think they are homers so a lack of self-awareness is par for the course.
For the record, I don't think homer-ism is naturally a bad thing. It's an inherent part of fandom.

Voluntary miss = Healthy scratch. When a player sits out a game which he is health, eligible, and able to play.
I find it odd that with the current climate about players sitting out, you would think a stat based solely on Lebron missing games would help his case.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1379 » by Tritodian » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:41 pm

bmurph128 wrote:http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=03%2F24%2F2017&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1


For people talking about Harden as MVP though, and especially versus the Cavs supporting cast - how can Harden be viewed as the most valuable player when his team seems to do better with him off the court?

EDIT: numbers are since 12/1


Net rating doesn't take into account the quality of his teammates that a certain player shares his playing time with, nor the level of opponent he usually goes against. If player A plays with the best among his teammates, and usually goes against bench players of opposing teams, his net rating will skyrocket despite not doing anything special.

That's why people have come up with a stat like RPM, because raw net rating is notoriously inaccurate and unreliable for measuring true impact. For instance, San Antonio has better defensive rating when Kawhi goes out. Does that mean Kawhi is a bad defender?

I agree that Harden's impact has been a little sub-par for an MVP candidate, but that opinion is based on Harden's RPM, not net rating. But as I've mentioned numerous times before MVP =/= most impactful player in the league. A decent player can have way more impact above his paygrade if he's on a weaker team. That same player - with the same level of performance - will barely have any impact if he plays for a team like San Antonio.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1380 » by bmurph128 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:43 pm

BallerTalk wrote:
bmurph128 wrote:
BallerTalk wrote:
Even a rabid Cavs homer like you has to know that argument doesn't end well for Lebron as it goes straight to his history of picking and choosing game to voluntarily miss.
NO ONE is going to penalize players like Harden and Westbrook for showing up every night.



I don't think I'm a "rabid Cavs homer"; I am not even saying LeBron SHOULD win MVP - I was just pointing out what someone who was campaigning for LeBron would say.

And I don't know what you mean by choosing games to voluntarily miss - by several accounts LeBron was pissed Saturday when Lue told him he was taking the night off.


It's okay. Most homers don't think they are homers so a lack of self-awareness is par for the course.
For the record, I don't think homer-ism is naturally a bad thing. It's an inherent part of fandom.

Voluntary miss = Healthy scratch. When a player sits out a game which he is health, eligible, and able to play.
I find it odd that with the current climate about players sitting out, you would think a stat based solely on Lebron missing games would help his case.



Okay, I mean I won't convince you which is fine, but I strive for self awareness in all aspects of life. Obviously, as you said, everyone has at least a bit of homerism. But me a rabid homer? Nah.

I think it's odd that in the current climate we have with flopping, that people think Harden's playing style doesn't hurt his case. So I guess we're even there. Having missed 6 games doesn't remove someone from the MVP convo - I would guess he will miss more, and at that point we can have that discussion - but 6 games? I think Kawhi is right there with him and some people want to give Kawhi the MVP. It also looks very similar to when he sits during the games he plays - I would bet that the Rockets could beat some teams without Harden playing. His on/off certainly reflects that.

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