2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

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Who will win MVP?

Curry
12
3%
Durant
3
1%
Harden
112
31%
LeBron
42
12%
Leonard
60
17%
Westbrook
109
30%
Other
20
6%
 
Total votes: 358

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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1401 » by draftnightsuit » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:45 am

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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1402 » by KD_Steph » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:45 am

Harden's style of play makes his teammates better and he empowers everyone on the team on the court. Everyone on that team is playing at his optimal level and Harden is doing a perfect job to make sure that is happening on the team. Westbrook's style of play doesn't allow for proper team ball based system. His inability to play off-ball hurts him big time. He tries to do everything on offense which doesn't empower his teammates as much as he should. Even if he was on the Rockets, the players around him won't be optimized like Harden is doing with them atm. This is why Harden is the MVP. His style of play is just better at optimizing players around him. He is more efficient, smarter and easier to play with. That said, one can argue that Westbrook is a better floor raiser than Harden but sure as hell he isn't the better ceiling raiser than Harden. I would take 17 Harden to build a contender around everytime.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1403 » by RCM88x » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:46 am

laika wrote:Westbrook was essentially eliminated from the MVP race tonight.

The argument for Westbrook has become too contradictory. The only advantage Westbrook has over Harden is On/Off. However, voters just don't really care about that. But even if On/Off miraculously became a major MVP criteria, Curry and Lebron are going to easily beat Westbrook at On/Off and wins.

Basically, the only chance Westbrook has left is if you have two separate groups of voters using totally different criteria.


Westbrook also leads Harden in PPG, Reb, ESPN RPM, DPRM, RPMWins, PER, BPM, VORP, ORB%, DRB%, AST%, TOV% among probably some others things. But all is meaningless because Harden has a better W/L, and perhaps that is fair.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1404 » by RCM88x » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:47 am

KD_Steph wrote:Harden's style of play makes his teammates better and he empowers everyone on the team on the court. Everyone on that team is playing at his optimal level and Harden is doing a perfect job to make sure that is happening on the team. Westbrook's style of play doesn't allow for proper team ball based system. His inability to play off-ball hurts him big time. He tries to do everything on offense which doesn't empower his teammates as much as he should. Even if he was on the Rockets, the players around him won't be optimized like Harden is doing with them atm. This is why Harden is the MVP. His style of play is just better at optimizing players around him. He is more efficient, smarter and easier to play with. That said, one can argue that Westbrook is a better floor raiser than Harden but sure as hell he isn't the better ceiling raiser than Harden. I would take 17 Harden to build a contender around everytime.


The funny thing is, if you said any of that before this season people would have laughed you off the internet.
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Re: RE: Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1405 » by K_chile22 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:51 am

KD_Steph wrote:Harden's style of play makes his teammates better and he empowers everyone on the team on the court. Everyone on that team is playing at his optimal level and Harden is doing a perfect job to make sure that is happening on the team. Westbrook's style of play doesn't allow for proper team ball based system. His inability to play off-ball hurts him big time. He tries to do everything on offense which doesn't empower his teammates as much as he should. Even if he was on the Rockets, the players around him won't be optimized like Harden is doing with them atm. This is why Harden is the MVP. His style of play is just better at optimizing players around him. He is more efficient, smarter and easier to play with. That said, one can argue that Westbrook is a better floor raiser than Harden but sure as hell he isn't the better ceiling raiser than Harden. I would take 17 Harden to build a contender around everytime.

I thought this was bs until watching Harden and the Rockets last year vs this year, not letting your teammates, no matter how offensively challenged they are, do things with the ball hurts your team on both ends.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1406 » by Tritodian » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:55 am

Harden in the last 5 games is insane :

35.2 PPG 10.6 RPG 11.2 APG 2.2 SPG on 48.7 FG% and 62.9 TS%

His team went 4-1 during that period.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1407 » by kingmalaki » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:58 am

RCM88x wrote:
KD_Steph wrote:Harden's style of play makes his teammates better and he empowers everyone on the team on the court. Everyone on that team is playing at his optimal level and Harden is doing a perfect job to make sure that is happening on the team. Westbrook's style of play doesn't allow for proper team ball based system. His inability to play off-ball hurts him big time. He tries to do everything on offense which doesn't empower his teammates as much as he should. Even if he was on the Rockets, the players around him won't be optimized like Harden is doing with them atm. This is why Harden is the MVP. His style of play is just better at optimizing players around him. He is more efficient, smarter and easier to play with. That said, one can argue that Westbrook is a better floor raiser than Harden but sure as hell he isn't the better ceiling raiser than Harden. I would take 17 Harden to build a contender around everytime.


The funny thing is, if you said any of that before this season people would have laughed you off the internet.


Sure, folks that either:

- don't watch basketball
- only watched Harden last season

Harden was a disappointment last season. However, in 3 of his 5 seasons in Houston, he's carried teams further than they should have gone, considering the talent on the team. There is no way the 2015 team or this years team should have one of the best records in basketball.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1408 » by laika » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:14 am

RCM88x wrote:
laika wrote:Westbrook was essentially eliminated from the MVP race tonight.

The argument for Westbrook has become too contradictory. The only advantage Westbrook has over Harden is On/Off. However, voters just don't really care about that. But even if On/Off miraculously became a major MVP criteria, Curry and Lebron are going to easily beat Westbrook at On/Off and wins.

Basically, the only chance Westbrook has left is if you have two separate groups of voters using totally different criteria.


Westbrook also leads Harden in PPG, Reb, ESPN RPM, DPRM, RPMWins, PER, BPM, VORP, ORB%, DRB%, AST%, TOV% among probably some others things. But all is meaningless because Harden has a better W/L, and perhaps that is fair.


I don't think most MVP voters care at all about advanced stats. The big 5 are points, rebounds, assists, scoring efficiency and wins. It will not help that even the most uninformed voter probably knows that the Thunder rig things for Westbrook to get more rebounds.

29.4 pts, 8.1 reb, 11.2 ast, .620 TS% and 57 wins will almost definitely beat
31.4 pts, 10.5 reb, 10.3 ast, .546 TS% and 47 wins.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1409 » by Tritodian » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:21 am

RCM88x wrote:
laika wrote:Westbrook was essentially eliminated from the MVP race tonight.

The argument for Westbrook has become too contradictory. The only advantage Westbrook has over Harden is On/Off. However, voters just don't really care about that. But even if On/Off miraculously became a major MVP criteria, Curry and Lebron are going to easily beat Westbrook at On/Off and wins.

Basically, the only chance Westbrook has left is if you have two separate groups of voters using totally different criteria.


Westbrook also leads Harden in PPG, Reb, ESPN RPM, DPRM, RPMWins, PER, BPM, VORP, ORB%, DRB%, AST%, TOV% among probably some others things. But all is meaningless because Harden has a better W/L, and perhaps that is fair.


Harden leads Westbrook in APG, FG%, 3PT%, FT%, TS%, eFG%, WS, WS/48, OWS, ORPM, AST/TOV ratio, Secondary AST, Potential AST, Contested REB%, and better team record.

But muh triple-doubles.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1410 » by JLei » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:46 am

Ok Harden. You win. I saw Westbrook in person absolutely rape my Raptors which swayed my opinion for a week. But back to the correct answer. Harden you da real MVP.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1411 » by Pablo Novi » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:13 am

"How old are you?"
I'm 67 AND my dad was a totally rabid NBL-Mikan fan (tracked down every last article about him - watched any and all clips of games past; and followed him from the NBL to the BAA-NBA. He often explained to me the importance of the "Mikan Drill").

The ONLY thing my dad ever watched with me was the NBA - he'd explain the significance of every last detail - and relate to me what was different in the early 1960s from Mikan's era. And. living in New Jersey, just outside of NYC; we had THE best NBA coverage in the world (what little there was, almost all of it tape-delayed back then. Every time the NBA was covered - we watched it.

Heck there were only 3 TV channels; and all of them went off in the late evening - filling the screen with some test-pattern or another. I remember the concentric circles of one station; and the horizontal bars of another. I don't remember the third's (some combo of circles and bars? lol)

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
Pablo Novi wrote:It's just an incredible year. I have trouble ruling any of the 4 out of the conversation.
LeBron's still THE best player in the world and the on / off.
Kawhi is an awesome two-way player and his team is battling for THE best record.
Harden is perhaps the most fun player to watch that I've seen in my 55 years of rabid NBA-ABA fanhood.
Westbrook's numbers are better than the Big O's (given pace). (And I LOVED the Big O back then).

Imo, there's NEVER been such a four-way MVP race!

Putting a positive spin on this, we the fans can't lose in this situation.



How old are you? :D

Anyway, do you guys think that Lebron has a chance to win it at this point?
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1412 » by Pablo Novi » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:21 am

I forgot to add, all TV was black-and-white then. The actual stone ages, as it were!

Pablo Novi wrote:"How old are you?"
I'm 67 AND my dad was a totally rabid NBL-Mikan fan (tracked down every last article about him - watched any and all clips of games past; and followed him from the NBL to the BAA-NBA. He often explained to me the importance of the "Mikan Drill").

The ONLY thing my dad ever watched with me was the NBA - he'd explain the significance of every last detail - and relate to me what was different in the early 1960s from Mikan's era. And. living in New Jersey, just outside of NYC; we had THE best NBA coverage in the world (what little there was, almost all of it tape-delayed back then. Every time the NBA was covered - we watched it.

Heck there were only 3 TV channels; and all of them went off in the late evening - filling the screen with some test-pattern or another. I remember the concentric circles of one station; and the horizontal bars of another. I don't remember the third's (some combo of circles and bars? lol)

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
Pablo Novi wrote:It's just an incredible year. I have trouble ruling any of the 4 out of the conversation.
LeBron's still THE best player in the world and the on / off.
Kawhi is an awesome two-way player and his team is battling for THE best record.
Harden is perhaps the most fun player to watch that I've seen in my 55 years of rabid NBA-ABA fanhood.
Westbrook's numbers are better than the Big O's (given pace). (And I LOVED the Big O back then).

Imo, there's NEVER been such a four-way MVP race!

Putting a positive spin on this, we the fans can't lose in this situation.



How old are you? :D

Anyway, do you guys think that Lebron has a chance to win it at this point?
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1413 » by Pablo Novi » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:26 am

RightToCensor wrote:This discussion is probably a month old, but I wouldn't mind if Harden and Westbrook were Co-MVPs if Harden continues doing what he's doing and Westbrook averages his 30 point triple double.


I wouldn't mind any combination of Co-MVPs.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1414 » by Pablo Novi » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:35 am

Somewhere's in this thread, somebody claimed that the NBA must be watered down based on LeBron still being considered the NBA's best player.

I apologize for not being able to find the post.

Boy does that take me back.

I REMEMBER when they said the same thing about all of the following late in their careers:
Wilt, Dr J, KAJ (more than anybody else - he had 16+ GREAT years, 10 as the best center - the most-competitive position back then, 5 more as the 2nd best center - they didn't have 3rd-Team NBA back then) and others.

Imo, the NBA has never been more "watered-up", i.e., it has never had either a higher general level (taking all players on average); nor a higher level just counting the top stars.

How I compare eras (decades) is as follows:
All the top stars being more equal than unequal; in other words, virtually any of these would be a top star in any other decade (PERHAPS the leading exception would be Bill Russell - who, imo, would probably be a specialized defensive giant (a la Rodman; but better).

The All-Time Top 50~ NBA-ABA-NBL Players:

50s & before: 5 Top Players
60s: 6 Top Players
70s: 7 Top Players
80s: 8 Top Players
90s: 9 Top Players
00s: 10 Top Players
10s (so far): 7 Top Players
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1415 » by KD_Steph » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:03 am

Harden's brilliance this season is as impressive/amazing as 16 Steph and 14 KD and I'm a big fan of both these 2. I rate their MVP seasons highly. This is also why I believe Harden deserves the MVP the most. It won't feel right if he does not win it. I honestly didn't think he had this level of play in him before this season. He seems fitter and hungrier than ever this season which is awesome to see. Not to mention better leadership. For the record, even if KD continued his great season with GSW, I would still give the award to Harden. It's just his time. Everything in his game is clicking at such high level. Next season could be different story because maintaining such ridiculously high is not easy at all. MVP race might look a bit different and maybe KD will be competing with him for it if he gets a healthy full season in the next 2 years. Or maybe Kawhi's time to win the MVP will come next season (he can still win this season but kinda hard to see atm) and he wins it. Nobody knows for sure.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1416 » by BallerTalk » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:21 am

JLei wrote:Ok Harden. You win. I saw Westbrook in person absolutely rape my Raptors which swayed my opinion for a week. But back to the correct answer. Harden you da real MVP.


This literally made me laugh out loud. :lol:
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1417 » by Dupp » Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:00 am

It's debatable who's having a better season out of harden and Westbrook. It's close whichever way you lean.

It isn't however debatable who is the MVP out of the two given the precedent of MVP criteria. I.e hardens team record and exceeding of expectations.
Given their impact and output difference is negligible I don't see how anyone could argue Westbrook.

The only other guy is kawhi and I think he might even win it, he'll have the team rectord and elite play. I however don't believe he would deserve it as I think hardens play and impact is better by a decent enough margin.

I really like kawhi and kind of dislike harden but if kawhi wins this it'll irk me because it'll add to his list of undeserving awards. Although this one would be more warrented than his first DPOY.
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1418 » by RaptorsLife » Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:10 am

Harden seems like he is pulling ahead
Let's go Raptors
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1419 » by miman15 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:22 am

Harden is finishing strong... hes just consistent all season. There should be no doubt to whos mvp now.
He has a dominant stats (29 8 11) and record to back it up...
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Re: 2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2 

Post#1420 » by NormanDale » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:26 am

Tritodian wrote:
NormanDale wrote:Both in RealGM and among professional reporters, there seems to be a lot of cherry-picking stats to argue against Westbrook, who seems to be 4th on many people's lists despite having a season we haven't seen for more than 50 years and being the obvious pick.

Don't act like it's just ignoramuses seduced by counting-stats who support Russ' candidacy. Russ leads the league by substantial margins in VORP (10.8 to Harden's 8.0), BPM (14.9 to Harden's 10.4) and PER (30.4 to Harden's 27.8, and Kawhi's 28.0). He also leads in assist rate, 56.6 to Harden's 50.9, a testament to the fact that Harden's "raw" assist lead is in large part a product of the quality of his teammates.

The big case for Harden seems to be that his team has won 8 more games than Westbrook's team, even though it's acknowledged that a big part of the gap comes from the massive difference in the two teams when their stars are off the court--Westbrook's team falls off a cliff, Harden's does not.

Also: I'm as big of a fan of advanced stats as anyone, but let's not completely dismiss the 30-10-10. As recently as a year ago, Big-O's numbers were seen as a relic of a strange, mythical era when the game looked nothing like it does today, as unlikely to be repeated as Wilt's 50 ppg. When Westbrook did it for the first couple months, everyone said, "this is amazing, but there's no way he'll keep it up." He has, and now we're all pretending it's not that big a deal. Except it is. It's insane.

And the eye test backs up how incredible what Westbrook is doing is. While I love Harden's game, and think he would be worthy of the MVP in almost any other year, I have never in my life seen anything like Westbrook this season, a freight-train going 100 mph all the damn time, putting the team on his shoulders and fighting all comers like the hero in a kung-fu movie. It's electrifying.

It's one of those things where you look at the stats and you say, "How is that even possible in 2017??" Then you watch him play, and you go, "Ohhh, that's how it's possible. You have to be a **** maniac every day for 6 straight months."

When you play at a consistent intensity and quality level that rivals the best seasons we've ever seen (certainly among the best I've ever seen, and I've been watching the NBA consistently since 1991), and when the eye-test, the advanced-stats, and the traditional stats all back that up...then, I'm sorry, but you're the MVP.


Cherry-picking is what you're doing in this post. The problem with Westbrook is he's not really exceptionally good at anything if you look at the quality of his stats vs quantity.


:o :o :o I honestly don't know how you could actually watch basketball and think this.

Is WB a great scorer? Well, he takes the most shots per game so he averages a lot of points, but only with sub-par efficiency (TS%, eFG%, etc.)


Westbrook is scoring 31.7 ppg. That has been done exactly once in the last 10 years. Calling him "not a great scorer" is wildly inaccurate, and reeks of fetishizing efficiency stats well beyond their actual value.

Is WB a great rebounder? He leads the league in uncontested rebounds and free throw rebounds, so excuse me if I don't find that impressive.


I truly do not understand this idea that "uncontested" rebounds somehow don't count, or that rebounding from a guard doesn't matter. Great rebounding guards--whether Magic, or J Kidd, or Big-three-era Rondo, or even Harden this year--add tremendous value to their teams. And Westbrook is better at it, particularly this year, than any of them. The fact that he gets uncontested rebounds might just mean, I don't know, that he anticipates well and is very athletic--there's a reason why the leaders in uncontested rebounds are the same as the league's best rebounders.

There is a reason this stat has never been brought up until this year, where it is being used to discredit Westbrook.

IS WB a great passer? He has mediocre AST/TOV ratio.


He leads the league in Assist %. Ast/Tov ratio is not the best stat when a guy is also the league's leading scorer.

is WB a great defender? He's a below average defender at best.


I can see this argument if you are comparing him to Kawhi or LeBron. But considering that he is significantly superior to James Harden on this end, it's a tough hill to die on.

You could levy the same criticisms at Harden, but Harden at least is a very efficient scorer. Also, Harden averages more secondary assists, potential assists, and creates more points from his assists per game. http://stats.nba.com/players/passing/#!?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

- Westbrook's 30-10-10 has to be understood within the context of his historically high usage rates. He runs the whole show in OKC - and whether it's a good thing is up to interpretation - but in terms of piling up raw stats, Westbrook is in a best situation to do that.

- One of the major problems with PER is that it is known for rewarding 'chuckers'. The more you shoot, the better PER you'll likely to end up with, regardless of efficiency.

https://skepticalsports.com/tag/per/

PER Rewards Shooting (and Punishes Not Shooting)
As described by David Berri, PER is well-known to reward inefficient shooting:

“Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.”

The consequences of this should be properly understood: Since this feature of PER applies to every shot taken, it is not only the inefficient players who inflate their stats. PER gives a boost to everyone for every shot: Bad players who take bad shots can look merely mediocre, mediocre players who take mediocre shots can look like good players, and good players who take good shots can look like stars. For Dennis Rodman’s case—as someone who took very few shots, good or bad— the necessary converse of this is even more significant: since PER is a comparative statistic (even directly adjusted by league averages), players who don’t take a lot of shots are punished.




I've read this Dave Berri article before; I understand his logic and also have my own problems with the PER methodology. But he undervalues shot creation.

FYI, Westbrook takes 5.5 more shot attempts per game than Harden, despite being far less efficient.

- BPM, VORP rewards rebounds, but as everyone knows by now, Westbrook leads the league in uncontested free rebounds.


Again, you act like uncontested rebounds don't count, or a easy to get. Not even close to true.

- If Westbrook wins MVP, he will be the one with lowest FG%, TS%, eFG% since Iverson 16 years ago.

- If Westbrook wins MVP, he will be the one with lowest team record since Moses Malone 35 years ago.

- Westbrook is not even top 5 in Win Shares and WS/48.


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