Triples333 wrote:Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).
Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.
To realistically predict the MVP, you kind of have to apply some filters to whittle down this year's contenders:Narrative/vote-splitting:
A Warrior won't be winning MVP. You'll have 3 guys splitting the vote and have to overcome the bad guy/superteam narrative.Team Success:
Westbrook, amazing as he has been, is on pace to win 45 games. Eerily similar to Kobe’s 35 PPG season. It’s unfair to him, but his team just isn’t good enough for him to get a significant number of 1st and 2nd place votes. Games missed:
Chris Paul has been possibly the most impactful guy in the league this year, but he’s missed 19 games, and will probably miss another 10 at the least. I think we can rule him out.
That leaves you with 3 realistic MVP candidates (In order): Harden, Kawhi, and Lebron (with IT on the outside looking in).
Harden is the favorite, and should be. If he keeps doing his thing and the Rockets win 55+ games, I just don’t see anyone else winning MVP. Kawhi would need a dominant win against the Rockets on March 6th to take the season series, and then the Spurs would need to finish 6-7 games ahead of the Rockets for Kawhi to realistically win this. I think Lebron has a chance to steal this one from Harden/Kawhi, but only if he becomes superman with Love out and the Cavs finish the season with close to 60 wins. IT would need all of the three guys ahead of him to stumble, and keep up his ridiculous January scoring averages for the rest of the year, while finishing with the 2nd best record in the league.
Honorable mention to John Wall, he's been awesome, but I just don't think they'll finish higher than 3rd in the east.