Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope

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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#101 » by Soupman » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:40 am

But that means less dunks and less sportscenter highlights and less ratings.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#102 » by YogurtProducer » Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:27 am

patman52 wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:I think non playoff teams should all have 1/16 chance for any of the top 16 picks. This encourages teams to not suck because you always have the same chance.


Oh, so you get a team that would normally win 45 games but had a couple of injuries and they get the #1. How does that help rebuilding teams.

I am Ok with putting something in place to stop a repeat of the 76ers no top 3 pick 2 years in a row.

How is that any different than what happened to SA? Also what's the odds of said team losing their star, missing the playoffs, AND winning a lottery that is only a 1/14 chancs
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#103 » by jbk1234 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:53 am

jimmy keys wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Arsenal wrote:Why aren't all these holier than thou anti-tankers up in arms about the REAL reason for the lack of parity?

All you need is a hard cap and no max salaries (like the NFL) and you're guaranteed a lot more parity than now. You'll also severely limit tanking as there will be other avenues available to improve.


The players union will never agree to a hard cap. They also wouldn't agree to do away with max limits unless the salary cap went with it. The owners would never agree to do away with the cap.


The Union might agree if the draft didn't exist. Best solution has always been to get rid of the draft all together. Let them choose their destination in life, it's crazy to force someone to live and work where they don't want to be.

If I was a top prospect I would say I'm willing to sign team A,B & C, the rest can f-off.

Imagine getting stuck in Sacramento for the better part of a decade. Players are already refusing to workout for them. As they should.


And that would be good for the first couple of years for those players. Then, after half the league retracted, it would suck for all the other players and the majority of players to follow them.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#104 » by DanTown8587 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:25 am

I think an interesting thing would be if you made the lottery a little choice. Teams, worst to first based on record, can decide on the following

- 1 in 5 chance at the #1 pick
- 1 in 4 chance at the #2 pick
- 1 in 3 chance of the #3 pick
- 1 in 2 chance of the #8 pick
Guaranteed #4

Would make for some great drama, allow teams who need help a chance to get help.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#105 » by Egg Nog » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:30 am

Celts17Pride wrote:Here is a solution, hire competent GMs


RealGM: Where if every team would just hire competent GMs, they would all make the playoffs.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#106 » by Soupman » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:40 am

Better player development is the answer.

There is just not enough talent to fill up 32 rosters.
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Re: RE: Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#107 » by tribulations » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:41 am

Dominater wrote:
Johnny Bball wrote:Bye bye parity.

In case it needs to be said... getting even close to parity is already a problem.

Parity is already bad. Can't get much worse than it already is. And if the bad teams can't find talent 4-10, then they deserve to suck.

You know the parity is bad as is when it's the only sport where fans actively root for their teams to miss the playoffs. Something needs to be done about that. Make it not feel like a punishment for the teams that are always trying to be competitive year in and year out.

Now the idea of giving the top pick to the champion and so on down, that's a bit extreme. My idea only affects the top 3 picks (like it is currently) and the elite 8 teams don't get lottery balls. There are plenty of teams stuck in the middle that need the help too

Agreed and I also really liked your OP.

The lottery system doesn't work as is and needs a thorough overhaul, how to fix it (league parity, tanking etc) is the elephant in the room.

The question is how does this proposal go from an idea to reality?

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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#108 » by PaKwAn » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:55 am

how about the last team in the lottery has better odds than the worst team in the lottery to somehow prevent teams from tanking that bad...
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#109 » by patman52 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:12 am

YogurtProducer wrote:
patman52 wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:I think non playoff teams should all have 1/16 chance for any of the top 16 picks. This encourages teams to not suck because you always have the same chance.


Oh, so you get a team that would normally win 45 games but had a couple of injuries and they get the #1. How does that help rebuilding teams.

I am Ok with putting something in place to stop a repeat of the 76ers no top 3 pick 2 years in a row.

How is that any different than what happened to SA? Also what's the odds of said team losing their star, missing the playoffs, AND winning a lottery that is only a 1/14 chancs


Because it happens every year that 2-3 teams should have made the playoffs but for injuries. Not just the one year that SA got lucky. There is a big diff between the worse teams and last year's jazz and bulls teams who both won 40+ games performance and talent. you can get or at least lessen the tendency to tank by limiting the lottery to the bottom 6 teams with no team getting no 1 two years in a row. Bad teams can not attract FA, the draft is the only way to get better, the pool of excelent GMs are small, your plan will let teams and thier fans wallow in misery even longer.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#110 » by Dominater » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:34 pm

HurricaneKid wrote:I HATE these threads. Do you see what just a few years of not having picks has done to the NJ Nets? And now you want to repeatedly punish the worst teams in the league by not giving them access to fixing their talent deficits?

I LOVE relegation in the EPL. But its a non-starter in this league in this age. No owner, much less 75% of owners, is going to put their BILLION dollar business at risk of playing Oshkosh-level teams each year. And the other ideas are even worse.

The league tried to readjust the %s a few years ago and got outvoted by ownership. The Colts had "suck for Luck" signs out a few years ago. This is not the only sport that has issues along these lines. Baseball teams always call up their young minor leaguers the second half of the season and no one is shocked when they go on horrific losing streaks. Hockey is almost as bad as basketball in that young studs can completely change the trajectory of a franchise.

The bolded isn't true because with my idea the worst record still gets guaranteed the 4th pick just like now. My idea is to give the teams that are stuck in no man's land a chance because they need help too. In the NBA a team stuck in the middle is far more likely to eventually fizzle out and turn into a bottom feeder than they are to turn into a title contender
KC: Do you still think your a championship caliber team?
Gar: I never said that and correct me if i'm wrong
KC: You were asked that question at the news conference announcing Thibodeau's dismissal and you answered yes
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#111 » by Dominater » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:50 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple.

Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why?


The first round of the NBA draft is by far the most important first round in sports. That's why they made a lottery in the first place. In the NFL, you have to pick so many players that one is rarely that important. In MLB, teams have to give up their first-rounders when they sign free-agents, and most of the guys they draft don't even play with the big club. I don't think anyone cares. Can't speak to hockey at all, but maybe it's closer to the NBA than I assumed.

How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


Because it's actually easy to become mediocre. It's really easy. All you have to do is overpay decent players and have a competent coach, and you'll get the 10th-7th seed. As a Philly fan, you know all about how easy it was in the pre-Hinkie days. So a bad team can do that, become mediocre, then use the draft to hope up to be a contender. Hell, that would probably be a better way to build anyway. Imagine if the best way to get a star draft pick was to do what Philly used to do and sign a low-ceiling core? Instead of adding Davis to a horrible team, he could have joined Young, Turner and Holiday (lol) instead. Or imagine how much easier it would be for a team to swing a big trade if they had decent vets and a top pick?

It's better for everyone. Teams don't have to tank. Vets get prioritized over d-leaguers. Sorry, G-Leaguers. GMs don't have to put their jobs on the line. Fans don't have to deal with multiple horrible seasons only running on "hope".


But again why do they go worst to first for the draft order? The NFL could have the Superbowl winner get the first pick in the draft? Why don't they. In fact they could alternate. Maybe the first round go worst to first and then the 2nd go best to worst. They don't. You know why? Cause of the basic principle of the worse you are the more help you need. The Browns need the first pick in the first round and the first pick and the 2nd round. They need the first pick in all the rounds lol. Every league gets that its only magnified cause like you said the first round in the NBA draft is so important. But its importance doesn't change the principle of the really bad teams needing the most help.

The NFL is completely different because there are studs to be found all over the draft. Look at the Patriots. Most of their main core guys were either late round picks or undrafted. Cowboys got Dak Prescott in the 4th round. There are Dak prescott-like steals I every draft (maybe not always at QB but still studs whatever the position).

In the NFL, ANY 1st or 2nd round pick is a prime asset. Whether you use it to draft a potential difference maker, or use the picks to trade. But all picks in the first 2 rounds have great trade value.

NBA is not like this. Once a team gets mediocre they stay mediocre until they blow it up
KC: Do you still think your a championship caliber team?
Gar: I never said that and correct me if i'm wrong
KC: You were asked that question at the news conference announcing Thibodeau's dismissal and you answered yes
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#112 » by Dominater » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:12 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:For all those in favor of the wheel, try to imagine the Warriors getting the first overall pick this draft.


having a contending team at the same time as getting high draft picks = great roster management

no system is perfect, but I would not begrudge the warriors for timing their run to perfection

losing (intentional or otherwise) to get high draft picks = this is why we have discussions on the lottery

how many teams are pissed that boston are about to get the #1?
how many teams were pissed when the injured spurs got duncan?
how many teams were pissed when the magic got shaq and the #1 the following year?
how many teams were pissed when the 80s lakers got worthy?


The Lakers and Celtics traded for those picks.

Giving really bad teams no credible way to get better would destroy the league in a decade. Rebuilding and the lottery offers hope. People aren't going to pay to watch ten to twelve teams as bad as the Nets year in and year out. For that reason alone, it will never happen.

There's a reason the league has Stepien rule and that's because Ted Stepien almost bankrupted the Cavs with his stupidity (he was responsible for the Worthy trade). As a condition to buying the Cavs, the Gund brothers insisted on getting 1st round picks. The league said yes because there were no other buyers. Fans aren't going to pay to watch really bad teams who have no hope of getting better.

As is now about half the league is made up of mediocre teams that have no hope of getting better
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KC: You were asked that question at the news conference announcing Thibodeau's dismissal and you answered yes
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#113 » by MrPerfect1 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:20 pm

The answer has always been a truly hard cap and the elimination of the Max Salary. The reason why tanking exists is because teams need superstars since even a superstar at the max is the best value contract in the league. That radically changes if your superstar now take up 75% of your cap instead of 35%. Suddenly, having a true superstar is no longer a huge advantage, talent becomes much more spread out, and teams can actually try to build a team around multiple good players.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#114 » by Chinook » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:27 pm

There doesn't need to be a parity of talent. There needs to be a parity of opportunity to get talent. Since the CBA is making keeping talent easier than before, the real issue will be getting teams access to draft picks. It can't just be the worst teams hanging out there for years. You have to force-cycle the bottom-feeders out, which would decentivize long-term tanking and give non-tankers a chance to get the picks they need to put them over the top.

It really comes down to framing: Is parity the reduction of horrible teams or the increase of great teams? If you think it's the latter, than the bottom tier isn't what should get the most help.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#115 » by laika » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:14 pm

Chinook wrote:There doesn't need to be a parity of talent. There needs to be a parity of opportunity to get talent. Since the CBA is making keeping talent easier than before, the real issue will be getting teams access to draft picks. It can't just be the worst teams hanging out there for years. You have to force-cycle the bottom-feeders out, which would decentivize long-term tanking and give non-tankers a chance to get the picks they need to put them over the top.

It really comes down to framing: Is parity the reduction of horrible teams or the increase of great teams? If you think it's the latter, than the bottom tier isn't what should get the most help.


Yep. My proposal is specifically designed to do this and I think is the fairest one out there.

My lottery fixes-
-If you win the lottery you are ineligible to win again for the next 3 years.
-If you get a top 3 pick you aren't eligible for a top 3 pick the next year.
-The team with the worst record picks 4th. The rest of the lottery is played like now.

The worst teams would have a chance to turn things around in my system, but deliberate tanking would be heavily punished.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#116 » by HurricaneKid » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:39 pm

Dominater wrote:
HurricaneKid wrote:I HATE these threads. Do you see what just a few years of not having picks has done to the NJ Nets? And now you want to repeatedly punish the worst teams in the league by not giving them access to fixing their talent deficits?

I LOVE relegation in the EPL. But its a non-starter in this league in this age. No owner, much less 75% of owners, is going to put their BILLION dollar business at risk of playing Oshkosh-level teams each year. And the other ideas are even worse.

The league tried to readjust the %s a few years ago and got outvoted by ownership. The Colts had "suck for Luck" signs out a few years ago. This is not the only sport that has issues along these lines. Baseball teams always call up their young minor leaguers the second half of the season and no one is shocked when they go on horrific losing streaks. Hockey is almost as bad as basketball in that young studs can completely change the trajectory of a franchise.

The bolded isn't true because with my idea the worst record still gets guaranteed the 4th pick just like now. My idea is to give the teams that are stuck in no man's land a chance because they need help too. In the NBA a team stuck in the middle is far more likely to eventually fizzle out and turn into a bottom feeder than they are to turn into a title contender


You are saying that the worst case scenario is the same but you are lowering the expected value of the picks for worst teams. Period. That is EXACTLY what I claimed.

Teams in no mans land that fizzle out get the best prospects when they fizzle out. That is, by definition, when teams most need an infusion of young talent.

In the NFL where elite QB is almost the ONLY thing that matters the team with the worst record gets the best prospect. In the NBA, the worst team has a 25% chance of getting the best prospect. And exactly WHO is currently tanking? The Nets? Who don't even own their own pick, and the Lakers who at best have a less than 50% chance of even keeping their own pick?

The people advocating for these massive changes are completely doing away with the notion of trying to achieve competitive balance so they can prevent something that isn't even happening.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#117 » by HurricaneKid » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:41 pm

laika wrote:
Chinook wrote:There doesn't need to be a parity of talent. There needs to be a parity of opportunity to get talent. Since the CBA is making keeping talent easier than before, the real issue will be getting teams access to draft picks. It can't just be the worst teams hanging out there for years. You have to force-cycle the bottom-feeders out, which would decentivize long-term tanking and give non-tankers a chance to get the picks they need to put them over the top.

It really comes down to framing: Is parity the reduction of horrible teams or the increase of great teams? If you think it's the latter, than the bottom tier isn't what should get the most help.


Yep. My proposal is specifically designed to do this and I think is the fairest one out there.

My lottery fixes-
-If you win the lottery you are ineligible to win again for the next 3 years.
-If you get a top 3 pick you aren't eligible for a top 3 pick the next year.
-The team with the worst record picks 4th. The rest of the lottery is played like now.

The worst teams would have a chance to turn things around in my system, but deliberate tanking would be heavily punished.


Again, you are suggesting that the Cavs getting Anthony Bennett should preclude them from getting Wiggins/Jabari/Embiid when players like Bennett inevitably crash and burn.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#118 » by Chinook » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:49 pm

HurricaneKid wrote:Again, you are suggesting that the Cavs getting Anthony Bennett should preclude them from getting Wiggins/Jabari/Embiid when players like Bennett inevitably crash and burn.


Yep.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#119 » by HurricaneKid » Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:25 pm

Chinook wrote:
HurricaneKid wrote:Again, you are suggesting that the Cavs getting Anthony Bennett should preclude them from getting Wiggins/Jabari/Embiid when players like Bennett inevitably crash and burn.


Yep.


And you are ensuring that the worst teams are all but guaranteed to stay the worst teams.

The only response to this to me would be to punish teams financially. Take away some revenue sharing $$$, or the luxury tax income, or something like that. You can even increase the penalty if a team doesn't hit certain attendance/win thresholds in successive years as you do with the repeater tax on the other end of the spectrum.

Because the actual problem with tanking is that it was hard to sell tix to a home game against the 76ers over the last several years. There is a valid point to removing income streams for teams that hurt other owners financially.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#120 » by vct33 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:36 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:I think non playoff teams should all have 1/16 chance for any of the top 16 picks. This encourages teams to not suck because you always have the same chance.


That's how the lottery started and they drew envelopes for every non-playoff team's draft position. They then switched it to drawing for the Top 3 spots only and then default to inverse order of record. I loved that system. You actually got to see the envelopes get pulled and not have a gazillion ping pong balls in some room being randomized. I don't like the weighted system.

The only negative impact of going back to a system like that is that trading picks before the lottery would be next to impossible. How could you possible include picks in a deadline trade with no clue of where it will fall?
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