IllMagic04 wrote: YogurtProducer wrote:
Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why? How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.
You make good points. The tank race is tight this year I'll admit. But you are what your record says. Its not about "rewarding". We suck so we need some help. No FA is coming to our awful team. Those teams you mentioned have more wins then us so yes we need it more. How much more? I dont know. But as I've said before if you wanna play with the odds a little bit I can get down with that. I just don't think the odds should be the same for the 16th worst in the absolute worse.Why do the other major sports also order the draft by record? Its the only practical way to do it. Your not wrong about the Bucks though. That senerio would be interesting.
It works in other sports because one player doesn't do the same thing to a team as a player in the NBA does. I would argue that changing the system to a 1/14th chance for the 14 worst teams (I have wrongly been saying 16) would drastically improve the NBA. No longer will top prospects be drafted into dumpster fires and then get to good to fast (see Anthony Davis) and then have their team sit in some weird mediocrity stage. The reality of it all right now is that you pretty much need to absolutely suck to have a chance in the future. I would much rather see a league where everyone goes into every season fighting to make that 8th seed because even if you miss and don't make the playoffs, you get that chance at the #1 pick!
Just for fun like here is a possible scenario. Say you throw a rule in place. No team can pick any worse than his finishing position inversed, plus 5. So last place (30th) cannot pick any lower than 1+5 = 6th. and so on and so forth. 2nd last = 7th, 3rd last = 8th..
we have 14 teams eligible for the #1 pick, Team 30th through Team 17th for a total of 14 teams. There is one ping pong ball for each team in the machine. Using the Current standings right now we have the following teams.
30 BKN (Lowest 6th pick)
29 PHO (Lowest 7th pick)
28 LAL (Lowest 8th pick)
27 ORL (Lowest 9th pick)
26 PHI (Lowest 10th pick)
25 MIN (Lowest 11th pick)
24 DAL (Lowest 12th pick)
23 NYK (Lowest 13th pick)
22 NOP (Lowest 14th pick)
21 POR (Lowest 14th pick)
20 SAC (Lowest 14th pick)
19 CHA (Lowest 14th pick)
18 MIA (Lowest 14th pick)
17 MIL (Lowest 14th pick)So I used a random number generator, skipping the numbers that duplicate and got this for the top 5
1st OVR 26 - PHI
2nd OVR 20 - SAC
3rd OVR 29 - PHO
4th OVR 24 - DAL
5th OVR 18 - MIANow this is where my rule comes into place. 30th cannot pick any lower than 6 - so they get 6.
6th OVR 30 - BKNFor the 7th pick, it has to be Phoenix at 29. They've won the 3rd pick so now we have another lottery for 7.
7th OVR 21 - PORLAL has to be 8th, ORL has to be 9th, and PHI has to be 10th however they won 1st so we have another lottery for 10
8th OVR 28 - LAL
9th OVR 27 - ORL
10th OVR 23 - NYKMIN has to be 11th, DAL won 4th so lottery time
11th OVR 25 - MIN
12th OVR 22 - NOPNYK has to be at least 13, but they are taken so it is lottery time again between the 2 remaining teams, MIL & CHA
13th OVR 19 - CHA
14th OVR 17 - MIL
Honestly this system is by far my favorite.
Honestly... you might be on to something here. Im confused on how you got to the floor number though. We could probably play around with that number a bit. It does still open the tanking window of being the worst so you have the lowest floor number. But being as everyone has the same shot at number 1 maybe not. Plus it keeps bad teams in the mix for a good pick cause of the floor number. This is by far the best solution I've heard
Just an update here: I ran simulations to see how long it would take each "spot" to win the lottery. It took 26 times for every spot to win. Here is the average drafting spot, the number of times they won the lottery, and number of top 5 selections (sorted by standings)
17) 8.92, 1 #1 Picks, 9 Top 5 Picks
18) 8.54, 1 #1 Picks, 10 Top 5 Picks
19) 9.92, 1 #1 Picks, 8 Top 5 Picks
20) 6.19, 3 #1 Picks, 16 Top 5 Picks
21) 8.46, 3 #1 Picks, 8 Top 5 Picks
22) 8.62, 3 #1 Picks, 9 Top 5 Picks
23) 7.85, 1 #1 Picks, 11 Top 5 Picks
24) 7.58, 3 #1 Picks, 9 Top 5 Picks
25) 7.00, 3 #1 Picks, 11 Top 5 Picks
26) 8.35, 1 #1 Picks, 5 Top 5 Picks
27) 7.12, 1 #1 Picks, 7 Top 5 Picks
28) 6.19, 1 #1 Picks, 10 Top 5 Picks
29) 5.15, 3 #1 Picks, 10 Top 5 Picks
30) 5.12, 1 #1 Picks, 7 Top 5 Picks
As you can, SSS comes into play here, especially with Standing #20 who was in the top 5 16/26 times which is just a SSS issue. Another SSS issue is 30th place somehow only going top 5 7/26 times. For reference, mathematically it should've worked out to 9.29 occurrences each. In a perfect world, each place would of won the lottery twice each.