Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope

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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#41 » by Dominater » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:28 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Its actually not fine


It's totally fine. It shouldn't be about catering to truly awful teams. While you can argue that getting stars will mainly come through the top of the draft (which isn't true but whatever), getting multiple lottery picks should be good enough for teams with good FOs to start improving. Ignoring that any lottery team could have gotten Kawhi or Giannis, getting multiple Schroders, Vucevics and Bradleys is enough for "hope" to be kindled. That's a lot more than some teams have had to work with over the years.


Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple

And the mediocre teams need help too. The Pacers, Blazers, Hornets, pistons, nuggets, etc need top picks to improve just as much as the Sixers knicks and Lakers. Their chances of winning a championship are all the same: zero. The teams in the middle that have no way out will eventually just fizz out like Brooklyn, or have to blow it up to get to the top of the draft.

That's why you see fans of even fringe playoff teams rooting to miss the playoffs. No other sport is like that because they offer multiple avenues to get better with MUCH deeper drafts and bigger free agency pools where ALL teams are allowed to offer free agents the most $$. And with new new CBA making free agency even worse as opposed to improving it, that makes this a draft or bust league. And there's only a handful of real difference makers
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#42 » by IllMagic04 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:31 pm

Chinook wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
It's totally fine. It shouldn't be about catering to truly awful teams. While you can argue that getting stars will mainly come through the top of the draft (which isn't true but whatever), getting multiple lottery picks should be good enough for teams with good FOs to start improving. Ignoring that any lottery team could have gotten Kawhi or Giannis, getting multiple Schroders, Vucevics and Bradleys is enough for "hope" to be kindled. That's a lot more than some teams have had to work with over the years.


Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple


Yes, but the question is who should get that option. Why should it only (practically) be the worst teams? Why shouldn't a team that is truly a star away from being a contender be just as deserving for the chance? You can totally argue that it makes more sense for parity/"hope" to give treadmill teams a chance to become contenders over giving the worst teams a chance to become treadmill teams.


Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why? How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


YogurtProducer wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:Why is 1/16 to much? If there was never an incentive to be bad, no team would ever purposely do what the 76ers have done. It would mean that in every single season you either a)make the playoffs or b)have a 1/16 chance at making the playoffs. At no point in the season would you be better off losing games.

Teams would actually be interested in signing solid players, retaining good ones, etc. At no point would teams be rocking a Sixers like tank. Theoretically you should see the overall talent of the lower teams increase.


Because I don't believe the need for for 16th worst team and the worst team are the same. If you want to play with the odds i'm fine with that but I don't want the 13th 14th team getting the number 1 a often occurrence. People don't get that every bad team isn't tanking

But as of right now being in that 10-16 range is the worst possible spot to be in which is dumb. No sport should reward last more than 16th or whatever.

You're right, not every bad team is tanking, but most of them aren't doing everything in their power to be better. The difference between 18th and 29th right now is 6 games; you can't tell me Orlando needs the number 1 pick more than Charlotte does or New York or Sacramento.

Just imagine if Milwaukee misses the playoffs and grabs the number 1 pick. I would so much rather see a great draft pick start his career there than on a **** team like Anthony Davis has as an example. Imagine if you could throw Anthony Davis as a rookie onto the 2017-18 Bucks or Trail Blazers. It would be so much better for the league than having them miss the playoffs for years on end.

It would make more contenders and overall improve the quality of the league


You make good points. The tank race is tight this year I'll admit. But you are what your record says. Its not about "rewarding". We suck so we need some help. No FA is coming to our awful team. Those teams you mentioned have more wins then us so yes we need it more. How much more? I dont know. But as I've said before if you wanna play with the odds a little bit I can get down with that. I just don't think the odds should be the same for the 16th worst in the absolute worse.Why do the other major sports also order the draft by record? Its the only practical way to do it. Your not wrong about the Bucks though. That senerio would be interesting.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#43 » by HurricaneKid » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:40 pm

I HATE these threads. Do you see what just a few years of not having picks has done to the NJ Nets? And now you want to repeatedly punish the worst teams in the league by not giving them access to fixing their talent deficits?

I LOVE relegation in the EPL. But its a non-starter in this league in this age. No owner, much less 75% of owners, is going to put their BILLION dollar business at risk of playing Oshkosh-level teams each year. And the other ideas are even worse.

The league tried to readjust the %s a few years ago and got outvoted by ownership. The Colts had "suck for Luck" signs out a few years ago. This is not the only sport that has issues along these lines. Baseball teams always call up their young minor leaguers the second half of the season and no one is shocked when they go on horrific losing streaks. Hockey is almost as bad as basketball in that young studs can completely change the trajectory of a franchise.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#44 » by IllMagic04 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:40 pm

Dominater wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
It's totally fine. It shouldn't be about catering to truly awful teams. While you can argue that getting stars will mainly come through the top of the draft (which isn't true but whatever), getting multiple lottery picks should be good enough for teams with good FOs to start improving. Ignoring that any lottery team could have gotten Kawhi or Giannis, getting multiple Schroders, Vucevics and Bradleys is enough for "hope" to be kindled. That's a lot more than some teams have had to work with over the years.


Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple

And the mediocre teams need help too. The Pacers, Blazers, Hornets, pistons, nuggets, etc need top picks to improve just as much as the Sixers knicks and Lakers. Their chances of winning a championship are all the same: zero. The teams in the middle that have no way out will eventually just fizz out like Brooklyn, or have to blow it up to get to the top of the draft.

That's why you see fans of even fringe playoff teams rooting to miss the playoffs. No other sport is like that because they offer multiple avenues to get better with MUCH deeper drafts and bigger free agency pools where ALL teams are allowed to offer free agents the most $$. And with new new CBA making free agency even worse as opposed to improving it, that makes this a draft or bust league. And there's only a handful of real difference makers


Your not wrong. No system is perfect. Someone is gonna end up getting the short end of the stick. The FA pool isn't as deep but a team in the middle has a better shot of landing a FA then a basement dweller does. If your making the playoffs you got SOMETHING going for you. But these bad teams have nothing. As a Magic fan almost all hope is lost. The only thing I have left to is a top 5 selection in the draft. And you wanna take that away from me? A pick that isn't garenteed to us regardless of record because of the lottery system people criticize.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#45 » by Chinook » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:47 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple.

Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why?


The first round of the NBA draft is by far the most important first round in sports. That's why they made a lottery in the first place. In the NFL, you have to pick so many players that one is rarely that important. In MLB, teams have to give up their first-rounders when they sign free-agents, and most of the guys they draft don't even play with the big club. I don't think anyone cares. Can't speak to hockey at all, but maybe it's closer to the NBA than I assumed.

How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


Because it's actually easy to become mediocre. It's really easy. All you have to do is overpay decent players and have a competent coach, and you'll get the 10th-7th seed. As a Philly fan, you know all about how easy it was in the pre-Hinkie days. So a bad team can do that, become mediocre, then use the draft to hope up to be a contender. Hell, that would probably be a better way to build anyway. Imagine if the best way to get a star draft pick was to do what Philly used to do and sign a low-ceiling core? Instead of adding Davis to a horrible team, he could have joined Young, Turner and Holiday (lol) instead. Or imagine how much easier it would be for a team to swing a big trade if they had decent vets and a top pick?

It's better for everyone. Teams don't have to tank. Vets get prioritized over d-leaguers. Sorry, G-Leaguers. GMs don't have to put their jobs on the line. Fans don't have to deal with multiple horrible seasons only running on "hope".
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#46 » by madmaxmedia » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:51 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:Why is 1/16 to much? If there was never an incentive to be bad, no team would ever purposely do what the 76ers have done. It would mean that in every single season you either a)make the playoffs or b)have a 1/16 chance at making the playoffs. At no point in the season would you be better off losing games.

Teams would actually be interested in signing solid players, retaining good ones, etc. At no point would teams be rocking a Sixers like tank. Theoretically you should see the overall talent of the lower teams increase.


You would end up with quite a few teams unlucky enough to be on a permanent treadmill of mediocrity- not lucky enough to get good draft picks, not desirable enough to attract free agents. I feel worse for them than I care about a couple of teams tanking.

The current system is a balance between helping bad teams out, yet still leaving an element of chance. On thing you could do is eliminate the system in which only top 3 picks are selected by lottery, this would give less weight to the really bad teams. Right now if you're a team like the Trail Blazers or Kings, you are pretty much locked into that 10-11 pick unless you are really lucky. No chance for moderate luck and climb to top 5 or something like that.

I don't know, I think the current system is pretty good compromise. I would probably open up the top 5 picks to lottery though to open things up more, then rest by order of record.

I am hoping we have a lottery soon where the top 1 or 2 picks go to teams further up the ladder.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#47 » by IllMagic04 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:59 pm

Chinook wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple.

Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why?


The first round of the NBA draft is by far the most important first round in sports. That's why they made a lottery in the first place. In the NFL, you have to pick so many players that one is rarely that important. In MLB, teams have to give up their first-rounders when they sign free-agents, and most of the guys they draft don't even play with the big club. I don't think anyone cares. Can't speak to hockey at all, but maybe it's closer to the NBA than I assumed.

How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


Because it's actually easy to become mediocre. It's really easy. All you have to do is overpay decent players and have a competent coach, and you'll get the 10th-7th seed. As a Philly fan, you know all about how easy it was in the pre-Hinkie days. So a bad team can do that, become mediocre, then use the draft to hope up to be a contender. Hell, that would probably be a better way to build anyway. Imagine if the best way to get a star draft pick was to do what Philly used to do and sign a low-ceiling core? Instead of adding Davis to a horrible team, he could have joined Young, Turner and Holiday (lol) instead. Or imagine how much easier it would be for a team to swing a big trade if they had decent vets and a top pick?

It's better for everyone. Teams don't have to tank. Vets get prioritized over d-leaguers. Sorry, G-Leaguers. GMs don't have to put their jobs on the line. Fans don't have to deal with multiple horrible seasons only running on "hope".


But again why do they go worst to first for the draft order? The NFL could have the Superbowl winner get the first pick in the draft? Why don't they. In fact they could alternate. Maybe the first round go worst to first and then the 2nd go best to worst. They don't. You know why? Cause of the basic principle of the worse you are the more help you need. The Browns need the first pick in the first round and the first pick and the 2nd round. They need the first pick in all the rounds lol. Every league gets that its only magnified cause like you said the first round in the NBA draft is so important. But its importance doesn't change the principle of the really bad teams needing the most help.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#48 » by YogurtProducer » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:00 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple


Yes, but the question is who should get that option. Why should it only (practically) be the worst teams? Why shouldn't a team that is truly a star away from being a contender be just as deserving for the chance? You can totally argue that it makes more sense for parity/"hope" to give treadmill teams a chance to become contenders over giving the worst teams a chance to become treadmill teams.


Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why? How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


YogurtProducer wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Because I don't believe the need for for 16th worst team and the worst team are the same. If you want to play with the odds i'm fine with that but I don't want the 13th 14th team getting the number 1 a often occurrence. People don't get that every bad team isn't tanking

But as of right now being in that 10-16 range is the worst possible spot to be in which is dumb. No sport should reward last more than 16th or whatever.

You're right, not every bad team is tanking, but most of them aren't doing everything in their power to be better. The difference between 18th and 29th right now is 6 games; you can't tell me Orlando needs the number 1 pick more than Charlotte does or New York or Sacramento.

Just imagine if Milwaukee misses the playoffs and grabs the number 1 pick. I would so much rather see a great draft pick start his career there than on a **** team like Anthony Davis has as an example. Imagine if you could throw Anthony Davis as a rookie onto the 2017-18 Bucks or Trail Blazers. It would be so much better for the league than having them miss the playoffs for years on end.

It would make more contenders and overall improve the quality of the league


You make good points. The tank race is tight this year I'll admit. But you are what your record says. Its not about "rewarding". We suck so we need some help. No FA is coming to our awful team. Those teams you mentioned have more wins then us so yes we need it more. How much more? I dont know. But as I've said before if you wanna play with the odds a little bit I can get down with that. I just don't think the odds should be the same for the 16th worst in the absolute worse.Why do the other major sports also order the draft by record? Its the only practical way to do it. Your not wrong about the Bucks though. That senerio would be interesting.

It works in other sports because one player doesn't do the same thing to a team as a player in the NBA does. I would argue that changing the system to a 1/14th chance for the 14 worst teams (I have wrongly been saying 16) would drastically improve the NBA. No longer will top prospects be drafted into dumpster fires and then get to good to fast (see Anthony Davis) and then have their team sit in some weird mediocrity stage. The reality of it all right now is that you pretty much need to absolutely suck to have a chance in the future. I would much rather see a league where everyone goes into every season fighting to make that 8th seed because even if you miss and don't make the playoffs, you get that chance at the #1 pick!

Just for fun like here is a possible scenario. Say you throw a rule in place. No team can pick any worse than his finishing position inversed, plus 5. So last place (30th) cannot pick any lower than 1+5 = 6th. and so on and so forth. 2nd last = 7th, 3rd last = 8th..

we have 14 teams eligible for the #1 pick, Team 30th through Team 17th for a total of 14 teams. There is one ping pong ball for each team in the machine. Using the Current standings right now we have the following teams.

30 BKN (Lowest 6th pick)
29 PHO (Lowest 7th pick)
28 LAL (Lowest 8th pick)
27 ORL (Lowest 9th pick)
26 PHI (Lowest 10th pick)
25 MIN (Lowest 11th pick)
24 DAL (Lowest 12th pick)
23 NYK (Lowest 13th pick)
22 NOP (Lowest 14th pick)
21 POR (Lowest 14th pick)
20 SAC (Lowest 14th pick)
19 CHA (Lowest 14th pick)
18 MIA (Lowest 14th pick)
17 MIL (Lowest 14th pick)

So I used a random number generator, skipping the numbers that duplicate and got this for the top 5

1st OVR 26 - PHI
2nd OVR 20 - SAC
3rd OVR 29 - PHO
4th OVR 24 - DAL
5th OVR 18 - MIA

Now this is where my rule comes into place. 30th cannot pick any lower than 6 - so they get 6.

6th OVR 30 - BKN

For the 7th pick, it has to be Phoenix at 29. They've won the 3rd pick so now we have another lottery for 7.

7th OVR 21 - POR

LAL has to be 8th, ORL has to be 9th, and PHI has to be 10th however they won 1st so we have another lottery for 10

8th OVR 28 - LAL
9th OVR 27 - ORL
10th OVR 23 - NYK

MIN has to be 11th, DAL won 4th so lottery time

11th OVR 25 - MIN
12th OVR 22 - NOP

NYK has to be at least 13, but they are taken so it is lottery time again between the 2 remaining teams, MIL & CHA

13th OVR 19 - CHA
14th OVR 17 - MIL

Honestly this system is by far my favorite.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#49 » by Chinook » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:05 pm

madmaxmedia wrote:You would end up with quite a few teams unlucky enough to be on a permanent treadmill of mediocrity- not lucky enough to get good draft picks, not desirable enough to attract free agents. I feel worse for them than I care about a couple of teams tanking.


That seems like an easy fix, though. You make it to where if you win the lottery, you can't enter it against until the fourth years after, third year if you got second, second year if you got third. That way, at a minimum, you have six new teams every two years and eight new teams every three years and nine new teams every three years. If you weren't lucky enough to by picked at that point, you have at least a 43-percent chance of getting in the next top three.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#50 » by madmaxmedia » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:10 pm

Chinook wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:You would end up with quite a few teams unlucky enough to be on a permanent treadmill of mediocrity- not lucky enough to get good draft picks, not desirable enough to attract free agents. I feel worse for them than I care about a couple of teams tanking.


That seems like an easy fix, though. You make it to where if you win the lottery, you can't enter it against until the fourth years after, third year if you got second, second year if you got third. That way, at a minimum, you have six new teams every two years and eight new teams every three years and nine new teams every three years. If you weren't lucky enough to by picked at that point, you have at least a 57-percent chance of getting in the next top three.


Ah, that idea I like. I'm still in favor of some sort of weighting, but with this provision the weighting could be a lot less than it is currently.

I mean I don't think it's a big deal for teams to raise the white flag near All-Star break and try to cash in on some assets for next year (for example, why shouldn't the Lakers trade Lou Williams, he's actually got decent trade value right now.) But I think the game is better off if you try to dis-incentivize the multi-year tank.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#51 » by Bad-Thoma » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:13 pm

I'd keep it simple and have teams that get a top 3 pick moved to the back of the lottery for 1 or 2 seasons just to dampen the joy of tanking. Of course I wouldn't institute that rule until after my C's are done enjoying the fruits of the Brooklyn trade.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#52 » by Dominater » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:19 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
Dominater wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple

And the mediocre teams need help too. The Pacers, Blazers, Hornets, pistons, nuggets, etc need top picks to improve just as much as the Sixers knicks and Lakers. Their chances of winning a championship are all the same: zero. The teams in the middle that have no way out will eventually just fizz out like Brooklyn, or have to blow it up to get to the top of the draft.

That's why you see fans of even fringe playoff teams rooting to miss the playoffs. No other sport is like that because they offer multiple avenues to get better with MUCH deeper drafts and bigger free agency pools where ALL teams are allowed to offer free agents the most $$. And with new new CBA making free agency even worse as opposed to improving it, that makes this a draft or bust league. And there's only a handful of real difference makers


Your not wrong. No system is perfect. Someone is gonna end up getting the short end of the stick. The FA pool isn't as deep but a team in the middle has a better shot of landing a FA then a basement dweller does. If your making the playoffs you got SOMETHING going for you. But these bad teams have nothing. As a Magic fan almost all hope is lost. The only thing I have left to is a top 5 selection in the draft. And you wanna take that away from me? A pick that isn't garenteed to us regardless of record because of the lottery system people criticize.

The bad teams would still be guaranteed the top picks after 3 (exactly how it is now). And last year the Pistons had SOMETHING going for them: 4 game sweep at the hands of Lebron. Teams like that need help just as bad as Orlando
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#53 » by HurricaneKid » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:26 pm

Chinook wrote:
madmaxmedia wrote:You would end up with quite a few teams unlucky enough to be on a permanent treadmill of mediocrity- not lucky enough to get good draft picks, not desirable enough to attract free agents. I feel worse for them than I care about a couple of teams tanking.


That seems like an easy fix, though. You make it to where if you win the lottery, you can't enter it against until the fourth years after, third year if you got second, second year if you got third. That way, at a minimum, you have six new teams every two years and eight new teams every three years and nine new teams every three years. If you weren't lucky enough to by picked at that point, you have at least a 43-percent chance of getting in the next top three.


That's not an easy fix, that is an emergency brake designed to slow the rebuilding process. You are actively removing young, cost controlled talent from the worst teams in the league.

Furthermore, you are telling the Cavs that they took Bennett last year so they are ineligible to take Wiggins/Parker Embiid the next year.

The goal is to improve the worst teams in the league for competitive balance. The worst team already has a 75% chance of NOT getting the #1 pick and their odds of getting the 4th pick are higher than any other slot. That's PLENTY of variance, and why the league voted NOT to push the odds down any further.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#54 » by IllMagic04 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:33 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
Yes, but the question is who should get that option. Why should it only (practically) be the worst teams? Why shouldn't a team that is truly a star away from being a contender be just as deserving for the chance? You can totally argue that it makes more sense for parity/"hope" to give treadmill teams a chance to become contenders over giving the worst teams a chance to become treadmill teams.


Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why? How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


YogurtProducer wrote:But as of right now being in that 10-16 range is the worst possible spot to be in which is dumb. No sport should reward last more than 16th or whatever.

You're right, not every bad team is tanking, but most of them aren't doing everything in their power to be better. The difference between 18th and 29th right now is 6 games; you can't tell me Orlando needs the number 1 pick more than Charlotte does or New York or Sacramento.

Just imagine if Milwaukee misses the playoffs and grabs the number 1 pick. I would so much rather see a great draft pick start his career there than on a **** team like Anthony Davis has as an example. Imagine if you could throw Anthony Davis as a rookie onto the 2017-18 Bucks or Trail Blazers. It would be so much better for the league than having them miss the playoffs for years on end.

It would make more contenders and overall improve the quality of the league


You make good points. The tank race is tight this year I'll admit. But you are what your record says. Its not about "rewarding". We suck so we need some help. No FA is coming to our awful team. Those teams you mentioned have more wins then us so yes we need it more. How much more? I dont know. But as I've said before if you wanna play with the odds a little bit I can get down with that. I just don't think the odds should be the same for the 16th worst in the absolute worse.Why do the other major sports also order the draft by record? Its the only practical way to do it. Your not wrong about the Bucks though. That senerio would be interesting.

It works in other sports because one player doesn't do the same thing to a team as a player in the NBA does. I would argue that changing the system to a 1/14th chance for the 14 worst teams (I have wrongly been saying 16) would drastically improve the NBA. No longer will top prospects be drafted into dumpster fires and then get to good to fast (see Anthony Davis) and then have their team sit in some weird mediocrity stage. The reality of it all right now is that you pretty much need to absolutely suck to have a chance in the future. I would much rather see a league where everyone goes into every season fighting to make that 8th seed because even if you miss and don't make the playoffs, you get that chance at the #1 pick!

Just for fun like here is a possible scenario. Say you throw a rule in place. No team can pick any worse than his finishing position inversed, plus 5. So last place (30th) cannot pick any lower than 1+5 = 6th. and so on and so forth. 2nd last = 7th, 3rd last = 8th..

we have 14 teams eligible for the #1 pick, Team 30th through Team 17th for a total of 14 teams. There is one ping pong ball for each team in the machine. Using the Current standings right now we have the following teams.

30 BKN (Lowest 6th pick)
29 PHO (Lowest 7th pick)
28 LAL (Lowest 8th pick)
27 ORL (Lowest 9th pick)
26 PHI (Lowest 10th pick)
25 MIN (Lowest 11th pick)
24 DAL (Lowest 12th pick)
23 NYK (Lowest 13th pick)
22 NOP (Lowest 14th pick)
21 POR (Lowest 14th pick)
20 SAC (Lowest 14th pick)
19 CHA (Lowest 14th pick)
18 MIA (Lowest 14th pick)
17 MIL (Lowest 14th pick)

So I used a random number generator, skipping the numbers that duplicate and got this for the top 5

1st OVR 26 - PHI
2nd OVR 20 - SAC
3rd OVR 29 - PHO
4th OVR 24 - DAL
5th OVR 18 - MIA

Now this is where my rule comes into place. 30th cannot pick any lower than 6 - so they get 6.

6th OVR 30 - BKN

For the 7th pick, it has to be Phoenix at 29. They've won the 3rd pick so now we have another lottery for 7.

7th OVR 21 - POR

LAL has to be 8th, ORL has to be 9th, and PHI has to be 10th however they won 1st so we have another lottery for 10

8th OVR 28 - LAL
9th OVR 27 - ORL
10th OVR 23 - NYK

MIN has to be 11th, DAL won 4th so lottery time

11th OVR 25 - MIN
12th OVR 22 - NOP

NYK has to be at least 13, but they are taken so it is lottery time again between the 2 remaining teams, MIL & CHA

13th OVR 19 - CHA
14th OVR 17 - MIL

Honestly this system is by far my favorite.


Honestly... you might be on to something here. Im confused on how you got to the floor number though. We could probably play around with that number a bit. It does still open the tanking window of being the worst so you have the lowest floor number. But being as everyone has the same shot at number 1 maybe not. Plus it keeps bad teams in the mix for a good pick cause of the floor number. This is by far the best solution I've heard
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#55 » by YogurtProducer » Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:38 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why? How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.




You make good points. The tank race is tight this year I'll admit. But you are what your record says. Its not about "rewarding". We suck so we need some help. No FA is coming to our awful team. Those teams you mentioned have more wins then us so yes we need it more. How much more? I dont know. But as I've said before if you wanna play with the odds a little bit I can get down with that. I just don't think the odds should be the same for the 16th worst in the absolute worse.Why do the other major sports also order the draft by record? Its the only practical way to do it. Your not wrong about the Bucks though. That senerio would be interesting.

It works in other sports because one player doesn't do the same thing to a team as a player in the NBA does. I would argue that changing the system to a 1/14th chance for the 14 worst teams (I have wrongly been saying 16) would drastically improve the NBA. No longer will top prospects be drafted into dumpster fires and then get to good to fast (see Anthony Davis) and then have their team sit in some weird mediocrity stage. The reality of it all right now is that you pretty much need to absolutely suck to have a chance in the future. I would much rather see a league where everyone goes into every season fighting to make that 8th seed because even if you miss and don't make the playoffs, you get that chance at the #1 pick!

Just for fun like here is a possible scenario. Say you throw a rule in place. No team can pick any worse than his finishing position inversed, plus 5. So last place (30th) cannot pick any lower than 1+5 = 6th. and so on and so forth. 2nd last = 7th, 3rd last = 8th..

we have 14 teams eligible for the #1 pick, Team 30th through Team 17th for a total of 14 teams. There is one ping pong ball for each team in the machine. Using the Current standings right now we have the following teams.

30 BKN (Lowest 6th pick)
29 PHO (Lowest 7th pick)
28 LAL (Lowest 8th pick)
27 ORL (Lowest 9th pick)
26 PHI (Lowest 10th pick)
25 MIN (Lowest 11th pick)
24 DAL (Lowest 12th pick)
23 NYK (Lowest 13th pick)
22 NOP (Lowest 14th pick)
21 POR (Lowest 14th pick)
20 SAC (Lowest 14th pick)
19 CHA (Lowest 14th pick)
18 MIA (Lowest 14th pick)
17 MIL (Lowest 14th pick)

So I used a random number generator, skipping the numbers that duplicate and got this for the top 5

1st OVR 26 - PHI
2nd OVR 20 - SAC
3rd OVR 29 - PHO
4th OVR 24 - DAL
5th OVR 18 - MIA

Now this is where my rule comes into place. 30th cannot pick any lower than 6 - so they get 6.

6th OVR 30 - BKN

For the 7th pick, it has to be Phoenix at 29. They've won the 3rd pick so now we have another lottery for 7.

7th OVR 21 - POR

LAL has to be 8th, ORL has to be 9th, and PHI has to be 10th however they won 1st so we have another lottery for 10

8th OVR 28 - LAL
9th OVR 27 - ORL
10th OVR 23 - NYK

MIN has to be 11th, DAL won 4th so lottery time

11th OVR 25 - MIN
12th OVR 22 - NOP

NYK has to be at least 13, but they are taken so it is lottery time again between the 2 remaining teams, MIL & CHA

13th OVR 19 - CHA
14th OVR 17 - MIL

Honestly this system is by far my favorite.


Honestly... you might be on to something here. Im confused on how you got to the floor number though. We could probably play around with that number a bit. It does still open the tanking window of being the worst so you have the lowest floor number. But being as everyone has the same shot at number 1 maybe not. Plus it keeps bad teams in the mix for a good pick cause of the floor number. This is by far the best solution I've heard

I just kind of threw an arbitrary number in for the floor number. Pretty much the 30th team in the league can pick no lower than 6th, 29th no lower than 7th, and so on.

I thought about making the floor like top 3 but then potentially only two teams would move up and it would encourage tanking. I don't see many teams tanking for this because even with the floor, your odds of getting picks 1-5 do not get any better. Pretty much with this system you have a 1/14 chance of getting pick 1, but the same chance for picks 2,3,4 or 5.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#56 » by IllMagic04 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:38 pm

Dominater wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Dominater wrote:And the mediocre teams need help too. The Pacers, Blazers, Hornets, pistons, nuggets, etc need top picks to improve just as much as the Sixers knicks and Lakers. Their chances of winning a championship are all the same: zero. The teams in the middle that have no way out will eventually just fizz out like Brooklyn, or have to blow it up to get to the top of the draft.

That's why you see fans of even fringe playoff teams rooting to miss the playoffs. No other sport is like that because they offer multiple avenues to get better with MUCH deeper drafts and bigger free agency pools where ALL teams are allowed to offer free agents the most $$. And with new new CBA making free agency even worse as opposed to improving it, that makes this a draft or bust league. And there's only a handful of real difference makers


Your not wrong. No system is perfect. Someone is gonna end up getting the short end of the stick. The FA pool isn't as deep but a team in the middle has a better shot of landing a FA then a basement dweller does. If your making the playoffs you got SOMETHING going for you. But these bad teams have nothing. As a Magic fan almost all hope is lost. The only thing I have left to is a top 5 selection in the draft. And you wanna take that away from me? A pick that isn't garenteed to us regardless of record because of the lottery system people criticize.

The bad teams would still be guaranteed the top picks after 3 (exactly how it is now). And last year the Pistons had SOMETHING going for them: 4 game sweep at the hands of Lebron. Teams like that need help just as bad as Orlando


I don't think your idea is bad. But most anti tankers would argue it doesn't fix anything since being the worst still at least gets you number 4. Are you trying to end tanking or help middle tier teams?
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#57 » by Dominater » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:10 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
Dominater wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Your not wrong. No system is perfect. Someone is gonna end up getting the short end of the stick. The FA pool isn't as deep but a team in the middle has a better shot of landing a FA then a basement dweller does. If your making the playoffs you got SOMETHING going for you. But these bad teams have nothing. As a Magic fan almost all hope is lost. The only thing I have left to is a top 5 selection in the draft. And you wanna take that away from me? A pick that isn't garenteed to us regardless of record because of the lottery system people criticize.

The bad teams would still be guaranteed the top picks after 3 (exactly how it is now). And last year the Pistons had SOMETHING going for them: 4 game sweep at the hands of Lebron. Teams like that need help just as bad as Orlando


I don't think your idea is bad. But most anti tankers would argue it doesn't fix anything since being the worst still at least gets you number 4. Are you trying to end tanking or help middle tier teams?

More so help the middle teams. I understand teams will always tank and sometimes they need to. I just think it sucks even more when your team is stuck in the middle and they have even less hope and less to root for.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#58 » by Dr Aki » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:13 pm

no system is perfect

any changes to benefit team X will take away from team Y

if you want to truly divorce the impact of losses on lottery odds, then give us the wheel

either that, or you start removing the impediments to free agents wanting to change teams
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#59 » by YogurtProducer » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:53 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:
Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why? How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.




You make good points. The tank race is tight this year I'll admit. But you are what your record says. Its not about "rewarding". We suck so we need some help. No FA is coming to our awful team. Those teams you mentioned have more wins then us so yes we need it more. How much more? I dont know. But as I've said before if you wanna play with the odds a little bit I can get down with that. I just don't think the odds should be the same for the 16th worst in the absolute worse.Why do the other major sports also order the draft by record? Its the only practical way to do it. Your not wrong about the Bucks though. That senerio would be interesting.

It works in other sports because one player doesn't do the same thing to a team as a player in the NBA does. I would argue that changing the system to a 1/14th chance for the 14 worst teams (I have wrongly been saying 16) would drastically improve the NBA. No longer will top prospects be drafted into dumpster fires and then get to good to fast (see Anthony Davis) and then have their team sit in some weird mediocrity stage. The reality of it all right now is that you pretty much need to absolutely suck to have a chance in the future. I would much rather see a league where everyone goes into every season fighting to make that 8th seed because even if you miss and don't make the playoffs, you get that chance at the #1 pick!

Just for fun like here is a possible scenario. Say you throw a rule in place. No team can pick any worse than his finishing position inversed, plus 5. So last place (30th) cannot pick any lower than 1+5 = 6th. and so on and so forth. 2nd last = 7th, 3rd last = 8th..

we have 14 teams eligible for the #1 pick, Team 30th through Team 17th for a total of 14 teams. There is one ping pong ball for each team in the machine. Using the Current standings right now we have the following teams.

30 BKN (Lowest 6th pick)
29 PHO (Lowest 7th pick)
28 LAL (Lowest 8th pick)
27 ORL (Lowest 9th pick)
26 PHI (Lowest 10th pick)
25 MIN (Lowest 11th pick)
24 DAL (Lowest 12th pick)
23 NYK (Lowest 13th pick)
22 NOP (Lowest 14th pick)
21 POR (Lowest 14th pick)
20 SAC (Lowest 14th pick)
19 CHA (Lowest 14th pick)
18 MIA (Lowest 14th pick)
17 MIL (Lowest 14th pick)

So I used a random number generator, skipping the numbers that duplicate and got this for the top 5

1st OVR 26 - PHI
2nd OVR 20 - SAC
3rd OVR 29 - PHO
4th OVR 24 - DAL
5th OVR 18 - MIA

Now this is where my rule comes into place. 30th cannot pick any lower than 6 - so they get 6.

6th OVR 30 - BKN

For the 7th pick, it has to be Phoenix at 29. They've won the 3rd pick so now we have another lottery for 7.

7th OVR 21 - POR

LAL has to be 8th, ORL has to be 9th, and PHI has to be 10th however they won 1st so we have another lottery for 10

8th OVR 28 - LAL
9th OVR 27 - ORL
10th OVR 23 - NYK

MIN has to be 11th, DAL won 4th so lottery time

11th OVR 25 - MIN
12th OVR 22 - NOP

NYK has to be at least 13, but they are taken so it is lottery time again between the 2 remaining teams, MIL & CHA

13th OVR 19 - CHA
14th OVR 17 - MIL

Honestly this system is by far my favorite.


Honestly... you might be on to something here. Im confused on how you got to the floor number though. We could probably play around with that number a bit. It does still open the tanking window of being the worst so you have the lowest floor number. But being as everyone has the same shot at number 1 maybe not. Plus it keeps bad teams in the mix for a good pick cause of the floor number. This is by far the best solution I've heard


Just an update here: I ran simulations to see how long it would take each "spot" to win the lottery. It took 26 times for every spot to win. Here is the average drafting spot, the number of times they won the lottery, and number of top 5 selections (sorted by standings)

17) 8.92, 1 #1 Picks, 9 Top 5 Picks
18) 8.54, 1 #1 Picks, 10 Top 5 Picks
19) 9.92, 1 #1 Picks, 8 Top 5 Picks
20) 6.19, 3 #1 Picks, 16 Top 5 Picks
21) 8.46, 3 #1 Picks, 8 Top 5 Picks
22) 8.62, 3 #1 Picks, 9 Top 5 Picks
23) 7.85, 1 #1 Picks, 11 Top 5 Picks
24) 7.58, 3 #1 Picks, 9 Top 5 Picks
25) 7.00, 3 #1 Picks, 11 Top 5 Picks
26) 8.35, 1 #1 Picks, 5 Top 5 Picks
27) 7.12, 1 #1 Picks, 7 Top 5 Picks
28) 6.19, 1 #1 Picks, 10 Top 5 Picks
29) 5.15, 3 #1 Picks, 10 Top 5 Picks
30) 5.12, 1 #1 Picks, 7 Top 5 Picks

As you can, SSS comes into play here, especially with Standing #20 who was in the top 5 16/26 times which is just a SSS issue. Another SSS issue is 30th place somehow only going top 5 7/26 times. For reference, mathematically it should've worked out to 9.29 occurrences each. In a perfect world, each place would of won the lottery twice each.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#60 » by jbk1234 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:07 pm

IllMagic04 wrote:
Chinook wrote:
IllMagic04 wrote:Theres always exceptions. But if I gave you an option of having the number 1 pick or the number 12 pick I'm pretty sure you'd take number 1. If for no other reason cause you want the first crack at the talent. Bad teams need help. Its that simple.

Ever other sport that has drafts go from worst teams to best. Why do they do that? Because there's a basic principle of "you are what your record says you are". The worse you are the more help you need. NFL MLB just give the worst team that highest picks. The NBA and NHL however have made adjustments to try to stop teams from trying to be the absolute worse and its still criticized. Why?


The first round of the NBA draft is by far the most important first round in sports. That's why they made a lottery in the first place. In the NFL, you have to pick so many players that one is rarely that important. In MLB, teams have to give up their first-rounders when they sign free-agents, and most of the guys they draft don't even play with the big club. I don't think anyone cares. Can't speak to hockey at all, but maybe it's closer to the NBA than I assumed.

How far do you wanna take it? Have all the top picks go to the great teams? Again I get that there is talent late in the draft. Im not ignoring that. But the probability to get that cornerstone to lead your team from the basement of the NBA is gonna be at the top of the draft.


Because it's actually easy to become mediocre. It's really easy. All you have to do is overpay decent players and have a competent coach, and you'll get the 10th-7th seed. As a Philly fan, you know all about how easy it was in the pre-Hinkie days. So a bad team can do that, become mediocre, then use the draft to hope up to be a contender. Hell, that would probably be a better way to build anyway. Imagine if the best way to get a star draft pick was to do what Philly used to do and sign a low-ceiling core? Instead of adding Davis to a horrible team, he could have joined Young, Turner and Holiday (lol) instead. Or imagine how much easier it would be for a team to swing a big trade if they had decent vets and a top pick?

It's better for everyone. Teams don't have to tank. Vets get prioritized over d-leaguers. Sorry, G-Leaguers. GMs don't have to put their jobs on the line. Fans don't have to deal with multiple horrible seasons only running on "hope".


But again why do they go worst to first for the draft order? The NFL could have the Superbowl winner get the first pick in the draft? Why don't they. In fact they could alternate. Maybe the first round go worst to first and then the 2nd go best to worst. They don't. You know why? Cause of the basic principle of the worse you are the more help you need. The Browns need the first pick in the first round and the first pick and the 2nd round. They need the first pick in all the rounds lol. Every league gets that its only magnified cause like you said the first round in the NBA draft is so important. But its importance doesn't change the principle of the really bad teams needing the most help.


:( but true.
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