Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope

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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#81 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:31 am

jbk1234 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
The Lakers and Celtics traded for those picks.

Giving really bad teams no credible way to get better would destroy the league in a decade. Rebuilding and the lottery offers hope. People aren't going to pay to watch ten to twelve teams as bad as the Nets year in and year out. For that reason alone, it will never happen.

There's a reason the league has Stepien rule and that's because Ted Stepien almost bankrupted the Cavs with his stupidity (he was responsible for the Worthy trade). As a condition to buying the Cavs, the Gund brothers insisted on getting 1st round picks. The league said yes because there were no other buyers. Fans aren't going to pay to watch really bad teams who have no hope of getting better.


yeh, because of good and conversely bad management and gambling to get stars, not because of the system of talent distribution

the issue discussed here is about teams losing intentionally, or otherwise, to get a higher draft pick and it's flow-on effect, the inability of at least half the teams in the NBA year-in-year-old to not able to land a superstar on their team, because superstar talent is so sparse

time and time again, it's shown that while it's high lottery picks responsible for most win shares, it's good team and roster management that results in contenders

the current system rewards losing, if you want talent, losing is your only option sometimes

or maybe, get a competent front office that can team build without having the crutch to lean on that is the lottery


I'm on board with giving the team with the worst record the 4th pick automatically. That will at least stop teams from deliberately being the worst team in the league. But that's as far as I'd go.

If your team flat out sucks, sometimes you don't have an option. Good FAs don't sign with bad teams. If you're not getting better through the draft, your only avenue is a trade. If you don't have any players that other teams value, then you really don't have any options. Is Sean Marks a good GM or a bad GM? How would you know? He has no picks and no players other teams really want. So far all he's been able to do is offer RFAs 140% of their market value and those offers have been matched.


that's the nets and billy king's fault that they're in this mess

sean mark's only option to try to convince FAs to sign a value contract, wait out this mess until the nets have picks again, and get a proper scout division that rivals the spurs,

without the lottery, he'd be forced to do more, which funnily is what he's being asked to do right now

maybe you prevent teams from trading picks more than 2 years into the future, limit their mistakes (like the stepien rule), or maybe you guarantee the position and value of picks in advance so that teams can scout appropriately and don't feel like they have to be bad in order to land talent
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#82 » by Prokorov » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:36 am

honestly, it doesnt mad. it comes down to ownership, management, location, and luck. how many top 5 picks and the kings suck. philyl has tank-a-thoned for ever and still doenst have much to show but a logjam of bigs and guys who are injured?

how many times did cleveland have the #1 or top 3 pick and still suck until they got lucky with lebron coming back to bail them out? look what the pacers and spurs built without top picks (not the duncan spurs but todays spurs). toronto? boston?
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#83 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:36 am

mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. But the downside is, does Anthony Davis want to go to one of the worst teams in the NBA? Moreover, because Anthony Davis himself is on a bad team, the increase in pay for Davis becomes smaller (compared to guys who are on great teams).


so what does NO do in this situation? after they lose Davis because of an inability to outpay a major market team like the lakers?


Well, one simple solution is that all teams designate one guy as their keeper, which means that other teams cannot outbid the original team. So if the Clippers designate CP3 as their keeper, then Blake Griffin will be fair game. I would also argue that most superstars are on pretty good teams and would not want to go to a bottom team just for some percentage salary increase.


so it boils down to a franchise tag? the NBPA would never go for that considering they fought so hard for free movement of labour in the first place
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#84 » by jbk1234 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:39 am

Dr Aki wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
yeh, because of good and conversely bad management and gambling to get stars, not because of the system of talent distribution

the issue discussed here is about teams losing intentionally, or otherwise, to get a higher draft pick and it's flow-on effect, the inability of at least half the teams in the NBA year-in-year-old to not able to land a superstar on their team, because superstar talent is so sparse

time and time again, it's shown that while it's high lottery picks responsible for most win shares, it's good team and roster management that results in contenders

the current system rewards losing, if you want talent, losing is your only option sometimes

or maybe, get a competent front office that can team build without having the crutch to lean on that is the lottery


I'm on board with giving the team with the worst record the 4th pick automatically. That will at least stop teams from deliberately being the worst team in the league. But that's as far as I'd go.

If your team flat out sucks, sometimes you don't have an option. Good FAs don't sign with bad teams. If you're not getting better through the draft, your only avenue is a trade. If you don't have any players that other teams value, then you really don't have any options. Is Sean Marks a good GM or a bad GM? How would you know? He has no picks and no players other teams really want. So far all he's been able to do is offer RFAs 140% of their market value and those offers have been matched.


that's the nets and billy king's fault that they're in this mess

sean mark's only option to try to convince FAs to sign a value contract, wait out this mess until the nets have picks again, and get a proper scout division that rivals the spurs,

without the lottery, he'd be forced to do more, which funnily is what he's being asked to do right now

maybe you prevent teams from trading picks more than 2 years into the future, limit their mistakes (like the stepien rule), or maybe you guarantee the position and value of picks in advance so that teams can scout appropriately and don't feel like they have to be bad in order to land talent


But the Nets aren't being bad on purpose. They would very much like to get better. They can't and that's the point. It would be that way for every team that ever hit a rough patch until the team eventually went under. Eventually, the NBA would consist of six or eight teams.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#85 » by jimmy keys » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:45 am

jbk1234 wrote:
Arsenal wrote:Why aren't all these holier than thou anti-tankers up in arms about the REAL reason for the lack of parity?

All you need is a hard cap and no max salaries (like the NFL) and you're guaranteed a lot more parity than now. You'll also severely limit tanking as there will be other avenues available to improve.


The players union will never agree to a hard cap. They also wouldn't agree to do away with max limits unless the salary cap went with it. The owners would never agree to do away with the cap.


The Union might agree if the draft didn't exist. Best solution has always been to get rid of the draft all together. Let them choose their destination in life, it's crazy to force someone to live and work where they don't want to be.

If I was a top prospect I would say I'm willing to sign team A,B & C, the rest can f-off.

Imagine getting stuck in Sacramento for the better part of a decade. Players are already refusing to workout for them. As they should.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#86 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:50 am

jbk1234 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
I'm on board with giving the team with the worst record the 4th pick automatically. That will at least stop teams from deliberately being the worst team in the league. But that's as far as I'd go.

If your team flat out sucks, sometimes you don't have an option. Good FAs don't sign with bad teams. If you're not getting better through the draft, your only avenue is a trade. If you don't have any players that other teams value, then you really don't have any options. Is Sean Marks a good GM or a bad GM? How would you know? He has no picks and no players other teams really want. So far all he's been able to do is offer RFAs 140% of their market value and those offers have been matched.


that's the nets and billy king's fault that they're in this mess

sean mark's only option to try to convince FAs to sign a value contract, wait out this mess until the nets have picks again, and get a proper scout division that rivals the spurs,

without the lottery, he'd be forced to do more, which funnily is what he's being asked to do right now

maybe you prevent teams from trading picks more than 2 years into the future, limit their mistakes (like the stepien rule), or maybe you guarantee the position and value of picks in advance so that teams can scout appropriately and don't feel like they have to be bad in order to land talent


But the Nets aren't being bad on purpose. They would very much like to get better. They can't and that's the point. It would be that way for every team that ever hit a rough patch until the team eventually went under. Eventually, the NBA would consist of six or eight teams.


teams won't go under, not in this day and age, teams recover, they were forced to be economical with their money, forced to scout and draft better, find better trades, get better value on their free agents, hire better coaches

front offices change with the times, it wasn't very long ago that FOs weren't taking high schoolers and one-and-dones because they couldn't make an accurate assessment on what kind of player that kid would become

and now it's just basically gambling and losing, only to gamble some more, until either you get lucky or screw someone else over
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#87 » by mtron929 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:51 am

Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
so what does NO do in this situation? after they lose Davis because of an inability to outpay a major market team like the lakers?


Well, one simple solution is that all teams designate one guy as their keeper, which means that other teams cannot outbid the original team. So if the Clippers designate CP3 as their keeper, then Blake Griffin will be fair game. I would also argue that most superstars are on pretty good teams and would not want to go to a bottom team just for some percentage salary increase.


so it boils down to a franchise tag? the NBPA would never go for that considering they fought so hard for free movement of labour in the first place


It is not a franchise tag. For the designated superstars, nothing changes from what it is right now. They just cannot get outbid by the lottery team that chooses to exercise their lottery privilege.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#88 » by Nazrmohamed » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:52 am

Why do people always wanna change the lottery structure when MY team is in the lottery and has a pick. Leave it the F alone.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#89 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:54 am

Nazrmohamed wrote:Why do people always wanna change the lottery structure when MY team is in the lottery and has a pick. Leave it the F alone.


my team is in the lottery and I want to get rid of the lottery
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#90 » by Soupman » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:57 am

How about a development system somewhat like international football/soccer?

G-League
Division 3-->Division 2-->Division 1(G League Premier Division)--->NBA.

Have player relegation instead of team relegation. Teams can sign and further develop players from G League D1,D2, or D3.

Teams have a separate salary cap for G League. They can sign as many players as they want under that cap with a salary floor.

This gives teams 2 methods of acquiring talent. NCAA or G-League divisional system+team assigned special trainers.
You can train them and mold them into what you want and if things don't work out you just waive them or trade them to another team, and start over.

Vastly cheaper and more reliable than the NCAA and easier to gauge a bust or difference maker early.

Much better than NCAA IMO.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#91 » by Nazrmohamed » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:57 am

Dr Aki wrote:
Nazrmohamed wrote:Why do people always wanna change the lottery structure when MY team is in the lottery and has a pick. Leave it the F alone.


my team is in the lottery and I want to get rid of the lottery


I like the knicks dude. Do you understand me now? We should be gifted 3 picks just based on our suffering.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#92 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:59 am

mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
Well, one simple solution is that all teams designate one guy as their keeper, which means that other teams cannot outbid the original team. So if the Clippers designate CP3 as their keeper, then Blake Griffin will be fair game. I would also argue that most superstars are on pretty good teams and would not want to go to a bottom team just for some percentage salary increase.


so it boils down to a franchise tag? the NBPA would never go for that considering they fought so hard for free movement of labour in the first place


It is not a franchise tag. For the designated superstars, nothing changes from what it is right now. They just cannot get outbid by the lottery team that chooses to exercise their lottery privilege.


so your rules apply, but only to non-superstars? but you can only allow one player to be designated per team? that's a franchise tag is it not?

and who gets to go on this designated superstar list? all-NBA players? all-stars in the previous year? that's only 15-30 players

so what about players like Bradley Beal? CJ McCollum? you saying those players are allowed to be overpaid, over and beyond what their teams are allowed to pay them?
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#93 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:02 am

Nazrmohamed wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
Nazrmohamed wrote:Why do people always wanna change the lottery structure when MY team is in the lottery and has a pick. Leave it the F alone.


my team is in the lottery and I want to get rid of the lottery


I like the knicks dude. Do you understand me now? We should be gifted 3 picks just based on our suffering.


somehow, I don't think that would change the knicks as long as dolan and phil are in charge
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#94 » by mtron929 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:05 am

Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
so it boils down to a franchise tag? the NBPA would never go for that considering they fought so hard for free movement of labour in the first place


It is not a franchise tag. For the designated superstars, nothing changes from what it is right now. They just cannot get outbid by the lottery team that chooses to exercise their lottery privilege.


so your rules apply, but only to non-superstars? but you can only allow one player to be designated per team? that's a franchise tag is it not?

and who gets to go on this designated superstar list? all-NBA players? all-stars in the previous year? that's only 15-30 players

so what about players like Bradley Beal? CJ McCollum? you saying those players are allowed to be overpaid, over and beyond what their teams are allowed to pay them?


To be perfectly honest, I can do away with the franchise tag (if you want to call it that) and just let everyone in. So basically, yes, Anthony Davis might be tempted to go to an inferior team because they would pay him more, but he would be going to an even worse team. Similar to how Lebron will not go play in China even if they offer him 2x, 3x the salary, he will not be motivated much to go play for the Magic right now even if he can get a 15% hike in salary. It is only the 2nd tier / 3rd tier stars who might move around more, but I think this is good for the game.

Again, one problem with the bad/mediocre teams is that they get stale. And to avoid being stale, you need to sign free agents/get new players via picks/or trade. In the current system, you cannot trade and suddenly become a great team since the assets that goes out usually equals the assets that come in. Moreover, the free agents won't sign with your team. So the only means to improve is via draft. Unfortunately, most 18/19 year olds (even top picks) need some time to get adjusted and thus, the team can be bad for an extended period of time. Because we have to acknowledge that more and more, we live in a world where we want instant gratification and thus, it is more entertaining and healthy for the league if teams can abruptly go from being bad to being good. So the better fix is not via the lottery but via the free agency that gives more incentives for stars to go to a bad team.

Again, this is not a perfect solution but you seem to be just focused on the negative aspect. There are negative aspects to all systems.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#95 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:11 am

mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
It is not a franchise tag. For the designated superstars, nothing changes from what it is right now. They just cannot get outbid by the lottery team that chooses to exercise their lottery privilege.


so your rules apply, but only to non-superstars? but you can only allow one player to be designated per team? that's a franchise tag is it not?

and who gets to go on this designated superstar list? all-NBA players? all-stars in the previous year? that's only 15-30 players

so what about players like Bradley Beal? CJ McCollum? you saying those players are allowed to be overpaid, over and beyond what their teams are allowed to pay them?


To be perfectly honest, I can do away with the franchise tag (if you want to call it that) and just let everyone in. So basically, yes, Anthony Davis might be tempted to go to an inferior team because they would pay him more, but he would be going to an even worse team. Similar to how Lebron will not go play in China even if they offer him 2x, 3x the salary, he will not be motivated much to go play for the Magic right now even if he can get a 15% hike in salary. It is only the 2nd tier / 3rd tier stars who might move around more, but I think this is good for the game.

Again, one problem with the bad/mediocre teams is that they get stale. And to avoid being stale, you need to sign free agents/get new players via picks/or trade. In the current system, you cannot trade and suddenly become a great team since the assets that goes out usually equals the assets that come in. Moreover, the free agents won't sign with your team. So the only means to improve is via draft. Unfortunately, most 18/19 year olds (even top picks) need some time to get adjusted and thus, the team can be bad for an extended period of time. Because we have to acknowledge that more and more, we live in a world where we want instant gratification and thus, it is more entertaining and healthy for the league if teams can abruptly go from being bad to being good. So the better fix is not via the lottery but via the free agency that gives more incentives for stars to go to a bad team.

Again, this is not a perfect solution but you seem to be just focused on the negative aspect. There are negative aspects to all systems.


what i'm trying to get at (and really all this time), is that its patently unfair for teams to lose their drafted star players as a result of not being able to pay them as much as another team due to their record(s) in a calendar year

I want you to put yourself in the position of the team that loses that key player for no other reason than they can't pay him as another team simply because of limits imposed by the CBA
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#96 » by mtron929 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:15 am

Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
so your rules apply, but only to non-superstars? but you can only allow one player to be designated per team? that's a franchise tag is it not?

and who gets to go on this designated superstar list? all-NBA players? all-stars in the previous year? that's only 15-30 players

so what about players like Bradley Beal? CJ McCollum? you saying those players are allowed to be overpaid, over and beyond what their teams are allowed to pay them?


To be perfectly honest, I can do away with the franchise tag (if you want to call it that) and just let everyone in. So basically, yes, Anthony Davis might be tempted to go to an inferior team because they would pay him more, but he would be going to an even worse team. Similar to how Lebron will not go play in China even if they offer him 2x, 3x the salary, he will not be motivated much to go play for the Magic right now even if he can get a 15% hike in salary. It is only the 2nd tier / 3rd tier stars who might move around more, but I think this is good for the game.

Again, one problem with the bad/mediocre teams is that they get stale. And to avoid being stale, you need to sign free agents/get new players via picks/or trade. In the current system, you cannot trade and suddenly become a great team since the assets that goes out usually equals the assets that come in. Moreover, the free agents won't sign with your team. So the only means to improve is via draft. Unfortunately, most 18/19 year olds (even top picks) need some time to get adjusted and thus, the team can be bad for an extended period of time. Because we have to acknowledge that more and more, we live in a world where we want instant gratification and thus, it is more entertaining and healthy for the league if teams can abruptly go from being bad to being good. So the better fix is not via the lottery but via the free agency that gives more incentives for stars to go to a bad team.

Again, this is not a perfect solution but you seem to be just focused on the negative aspect. There are negative aspects to all systems.


what i'm trying to get at (and really all this time), is that its patently unfair for teams to lose their drafted star players as a result of not being able to pay them as much as another team as a result of their record in a calendar year


I realize that. But there are a lot of mitigating factors that you are just not addressing.

1) superstars on great teams do not want to go to a really bad team.
2) stars on great teams might want to just get paid, but then you are not losing out on elite talent.
3) superstars on bad teams might lose out but then, the difference in pay is smaller because this formula takes into your account your team's record as well.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#97 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:24 am

mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
To be perfectly honest, I can do away with the franchise tag (if you want to call it that) and just let everyone in. So basically, yes, Anthony Davis might be tempted to go to an inferior team because they would pay him more, but he would be going to an even worse team. Similar to how Lebron will not go play in China even if they offer him 2x, 3x the salary, he will not be motivated much to go play for the Magic right now even if he can get a 15% hike in salary. It is only the 2nd tier / 3rd tier stars who might move around more, but I think this is good for the game.

Again, one problem with the bad/mediocre teams is that they get stale. And to avoid being stale, you need to sign free agents/get new players via picks/or trade. In the current system, you cannot trade and suddenly become a great team since the assets that goes out usually equals the assets that come in. Moreover, the free agents won't sign with your team. So the only means to improve is via draft. Unfortunately, most 18/19 year olds (even top picks) need some time to get adjusted and thus, the team can be bad for an extended period of time. Because we have to acknowledge that more and more, we live in a world where we want instant gratification and thus, it is more entertaining and healthy for the league if teams can abruptly go from being bad to being good. So the better fix is not via the lottery but via the free agency that gives more incentives for stars to go to a bad team.

Again, this is not a perfect solution but you seem to be just focused on the negative aspect. There are negative aspects to all systems.


what i'm trying to get at (and really all this time), is that its patently unfair for teams to lose their drafted star players as a result of not being able to pay them as much as another team as a result of their record in a calendar year


I realize that. But there are a lot of mitigating factors that you are just not addressing.

1) superstars on great teams do not want to go to a really bad team.
2) stars on great teams might want to just get paid, but then you are not losing out on elite talent.
3) superstars on bad teams might lose out but then, the difference in pay is smaller because this formula takes into your account your team's record as well.


assuming we're operating under today's CBA...

1. james harden, carmelo anthony
2. james harden, '96 shaquille o'neal
3. what about superstars on middling teams? like jimmy butler? paul george? minnesota KG? pre-2010 lebron?
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#98 » by patman52 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:13 am

YogurtProducer wrote:I think non playoff teams should all have 1/16 chance for any of the top 16 picks. This encourages teams to not suck because you always have the same chance.


Oh, so you get a team that would normally win 45 games but had a couple of injuries and they get the #1. How does that help rebuilding teams.

I am Ok with putting something in place to stop a repeat of the 76ers no top 3 pick 2 years in a row.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#99 » by Soupman » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:14 am

mtron929 wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:
mtron929 wrote:
To be perfectly honest, I can do away with the franchise tag (if you want to call it that) and just let everyone in. So basically, yes, Anthony Davis might be tempted to go to an inferior team because they would pay him more, but he would be going to an even worse team. Similar to how Lebron will not go play in China even if they offer him 2x, 3x the salary, he will not be motivated much to go play for the Magic right now even if he can get a 15% hike in salary. It is only the 2nd tier / 3rd tier stars who might move around more, but I think this is good for the game.

Again, one problem with the bad/mediocre teams is that they get stale. And to avoid being stale, you need to sign free agents/get new players via picks/or trade. In the current system, you cannot trade and suddenly become a great team since the assets that goes out usually equals the assets that come in. Moreover, the free agents won't sign with your team. So the only means to improve is via draft. Unfortunately, most 18/19 year olds (even top picks) need some time to get adjusted and thus, the team can be bad for an extended period of time. Because we have to acknowledge that more and more, we live in a world where we want instant gratification and thus, it is more entertaining and healthy for the league if teams can abruptly go from being bad to being good. So the better fix is not via the lottery but via the free agency that gives more incentives for stars to go to a bad team.

Again, this is not a perfect solution but you seem to be just focused on the negative aspect. There are negative aspects to all systems.


what i'm trying to get at (and really all this time), is that its patently unfair for teams to lose their drafted star players as a result of not being able to pay them as much as another team as a result of their record in a calendar year


I realize that. But there are a lot of mitigating factors that you are just not addressing.

1) superstars on great teams do not want to go to a really bad team.
2) stars on great teams might want to just get paid, but then you are not losing out on elite talent.
3) superstars on bad teams might lose out but then, the difference in pay is smaller because this formula takes into your account your team's record as well.


Solution: Increase the pool of talent by expanding the developmental league + specialized training.

Everyone wins.
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Re: Lottery idea to help give more fans more hope 

Post#100 » by Dr Aki » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:34 am

or introduce game rules to help less talented, less physical players to have a bigger impact on the game, that way, superstars aren't as impactful

e.g. like removing the defensive 3 seconds and allow defensive bigs to camp the lane like in FIBA
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