Fear the Deer

[Wooderson]

Well yea, half court defenses do drastically clamp down in the playoffs and can hone in on player's weaknesses much more, and that is clearly Giannis' weak area. so it's fair to think it's a concern

The last time Giannis was in the playoffs, his efficiency dropped 13% from the regular season. That's a huge drop. Sure he's not the same player, but he's still not a great player in the half court. His midrange & 3pt shooting are still big weaknesses.. it's not crazy for people to be skeptical.

The Bucks will need the shooters to be scorching hot otherwise the paint will be packed the whole series.

DeRozan's been AWFUL in the playoffs, especially the last two years. His efficiency plummeted to historically bad levels and he's actually in his prime not a 20 year-old in his first season getting big minutes like Giannis. Which is funny since it's been DDs jumper that's abandoned him.

The way Snell and Midds have been shooting I'm less worried about teams packing the paint. Skepticism is fine but there have been doubts all along about Giannis ability to generate points with many thinking he'd top out under 20 ppg (even after last year). I'll wait until he really struggles before thinking it's more likely than not to occur.

[Illmatic12]

I look forward to whoever tries to slow him down with their super awesome only used in the playoffs defense.

Wall has superior ballhandling, bball IQ, court vision, experience etc to execute in those situations, and you flat out can't trap him because of his athleticism and dribbling ability. On top of that Beal is a deadly offensive player himself with or without the ball, So Washington has two players who can comfortably execute in the halfcourt at a high level.

Cool. Maybe this will be the year Wall doesn't suck in the playoffs.

Pretty much any player will attest to the increased level of competition/defensive intensity in the playoffs but..ok, sure.

And in Wall's previous playoff runs he went against top 2 defenses (the Bulls and Pacers in 2014 were the #2 and #1 defenses, respectively), the Raptors who he clowned on in a sweep, and the Hawks series where he broke his hand.

If the Wizards face the Bucks in the first round and they attempt to guard him with Delly or Tony Snell, boy oh boy.. I can assure you he won't suck

[Illmatic12]

Am I missing something did Wall start in the All star game this season? Is wall better than Giannis? I get it wall can dribble and pass but he still has just an ok jump shot part of the reason he hasn't averaged more than 17 points in a playoff series. But thats none of my business.

In a Wizards-Bucks series, Giannis would be the best all-around player. But the Wizards would have the best playmaker/ballhandler (Wall) and the best offensive player (Beal), an they have superior coaching and game management. So even if Giannis is as outstanding individually as you say, it may not matter.

Giannis has played in 6 career playoff games.. that's where I get it from. Same with Middleton. Both were not very good in said playoff games, and I don't know of anyone else in their rotation with significant postseason experience (outside of Jason Terry who's a role player).

Washington's combination of talent + postseason experience is a lot greater than Milwaukee's, and they have clearly better coaching as well. You can dance around it, but until the Bucks prove otherwise that's precisely why the Wizards would be favored in a series.

And prior to Middleton returning, the Bucks had a healthy Parker giving them 20ppg on good efficiency from the F position. Middleton is a better player than Parker but not 5-10 wins better.

How they performed two years ago is irrelevant to today.

No, Washington's talent is not a lot greater than Milwaukee's for reasons I already mentioned (and have not been refuted). This Wizards core didn't make the playoffs last year, and went one round further than Milwaukee the year prior. This is not the mid 2000's Pistons here.

Parker vs. Middleton is huge in Middleton's favor. Huge. All the advanced stats back it, the record backs it, eyetest backs it. If Middleton plays all season long, Bucks are maybe 2 games behind the Wizards right now.

How is it irrelevant? Bucks fans are talking about a rookie guard being in their playoff rotation who's supposedly going to matchup with All-Star caliber players.. that's not relevant to you? Bucks lack of postseason experience and terrible game management from Kidd is just a minor detail, huh?

And the advanced stats don't back the idea of Middleton being that much more productive than Parker.

Ws/48, BPM, ORT, DRTG, PER all have Middleton *slightly* ahead of Parker. VORP has Parker ahead. There's nothing remotely supporting the notion that Middleton's production is worth 5-10 more wins than Parker's over an 82-game season. Middleton is worth 2-3 more wins than Parker at most.

[hege53190]

I wonder if Middleton on the front page of ESPN and the corresponding story is in response to the thread.

[Wooderson]

And the advanced stats don't back the idea of Middleton being that much more productive than Parker.

Ws/48, BPM, ORT, DRTG, PER all have Middleton *slightly* ahead of Parker. VORP has Parker ahead. There's nothing remotely supporting the notion that Middleton's production is worth 5-10 more wins than Parker's over an 82-game season. Middleton is worth 2-3 more wins than Parker at most.

None of the stats you posted capture defensive impact which is pretty damn important when you replace one of the worst defenders in the league with a very good one.

[LUKE23]

How is it relevant how close the Bucks would be to the Wizards if Middleton played all year? Because, ummmm, that's their team now?

[bon]

He averages like .2 more transition ppg than Wall.

He's improved his finishing with the added strength obviously. But he's better at attacking the rim (because of his size), has more post up moves than he did two years ago (spin moves and pivots for hook shots). I mean, people keeping saying, "but but jumpshot" yet he's posting low 20's ppg at .600+ TS, something few in the league can accomplish. It's not like teams haven't been trying team D on him all season, they have since about the 15 game mark. And when teams do that, that leaves the shooters open. Like I said, the 3 point shooters will determine whether the Bucks advance or not. Giannis is either going to be double teamed or he's going to have huge individual games. My guess is in the halfcourt teams will wall him off with 2-3 guys, then it comes down to the Bucks 3 point shooters.

Yep basically what I said before. 10 times out of 10, playoff teams are going to force him to pass. A team that can do that and effectively slow down Middleton should be able to beat Milwaukee in 5 or 6 at most.

This is underselling Giannis quite a bit. You don't go from 20.7 points per 100 possessions to 32.9 points per 100 possessions with a 5% boost in your TS% by changing "just a tad."

I'm saying his offensive style has only changed "a tad". He's gotten miles better at the things he did well 2 years ago but he largely hasn't changed from that style of play. That's all my point was.

DeRozan's been AWFUL in the playoffs, especially the last two years. His efficiency plummeted to historically bad levels and he's actually in his prime not a 20 year-old in his first season getting big minutes like Giannis.

DeRozan was "AWFUL" for a series and a half (vs Pacers and the first 3 games of vs Heat he was atrocious). Other than that he hasn't been awful at all. Especially against the Cavs, where he put up 23 ppg on 50% shooting. If Giannis is able to put up numbers like that this postseason for the first time, I'll be impressed.

Anyway I'm not sure why you brought up DeRozan in the first place.

while I agree about the playoff D argument being made by the non-Bucks folks. From the Bucks view this is why Middleton is so valuable and has been so key to this turnaround, he is strong in the exact area Giannis is weak

Definitely. Middleton is a great compliment to Giannis. The question is whether that's enough to win a series as the underdogs (we'll have to see )

-------

Guys I realize Giannis is a beast and is the 2nd best talent in the conference. What I can't get on board with is the idea that "playoff Giannis" is going to give any of the top 4 seeds trouble; he hasn't shown anything in the postseason to prove that. He's 22! Nobody should be expecting him to carry a weaker team just yet. Please slow down Bucks fans and caution your expectations; for your own mental stability .

[trwi7]

he hasn't shown anything in the postseason to prove that. He's 22!

Probably because he was 20, has played only 6 postseason games and played a completely different role than he does now.

[bon]

he hasn't shown anything in the postseason to prove that. He's 22!

Probably because he was 20, has played only 6 postseason games and played a completely different role than he does now.

Going into those 14-15 playoffs, he was averaging 15 ppg on 50% shooting. It was his best stretch of scoring for the season but once the playoffs rolled around his efficiency nose dived.

But like I said before, his offensive style of play hasn't changed much. That's my concern. I know how much he's improved on the things he's already done well in the past (finishing).

[trwi7]

Going into those 14-15 playoffs, he was averaging 15 ppg on 50% shooting.

Your point? His role then was still completely different than his role now. So using that as a reason why he won't do this or that in the playoffs doesn't fly.

[LUKE23]

Yep basically what I said before. 10 times out of 10, playoff teams are going to force him to pass. A team that can do that and effectively slow down Middleton should be able to beat Milwaukee in 5 or 6 at most.

They have a lot of 3 point shooters capable of hitting, so it's not just Middleton. And you can't double team Giannis and slow down Middleton really. Middleton has been torching one on one defense this year. His post game has improved a ton.

That said, a series will come down to Bucks 3 point shooting. And they have the shooters to get it done, just depends on if they hit.

But as another poster mentioned, Bucks and Wizards have been neck and neck for O Rating all year, and that's with the Bucks missing Middleton for 50 games. To act like Wizards are going to be a playoff offensive force and the Bucks will be easy to stop is really just foolish.

[skones]

he hasn't shown anything in the postseason to prove that. He's 22!

Probably because he was 20, has played only 6 postseason games and played a completely different role than he does now.

Going into those 14-15 playoffs, he was averaging 15 ppg on 50% shooting. It was his best stretch of scoring for the season but once the playoffs rolled around his efficiency nose dived.

But like I said before, his offensive style of play hasn't changed much. That's my concern. I know how much he's improved on the things he's already done well in the past (finishing).

And you're talking about him as if he's offensively challenged, relying solely on fast breaks. You don't score 23 a game like that.

[bon]

Going into those 14-15 playoffs, he was averaging 15 ppg on 50% shooting.

Your point? His role then was still completely different than his role now. So using that as a reason why he won't do this or that in the playoffs doesn't fly.

He's getting more ball handling opprutunities now but his scoring arsenal hasn't changed much. What part of that doesn't fly? Lol

And you're talking about him as if he's offensively challenged, relying solely on fast breaks. You don't score 23 a game like that.

He's one of the top players in terms of points in the paint. Giannis himself will tell you that's where his game is.

[Ripp]

Middleton's highlights are extremely boring on YouTube, definitely is not an above the rim player. But he has a great post game, a gorgeous jump shot, and knows how to move without the ball.

[ZeppelinPage]

And the advanced stats don't back the idea of Middleton being that much more productive than Parker.

Ws/48, BPM, ORT, DRTG, PER all have Middleton *slightly* ahead of Parker. VORP has Parker ahead. There's nothing remotely supporting the notion that Middleton's production is worth 5-10 more wins than Parker's over an 82-game season. Middleton is worth 2-3 more wins than Parker at most.

Read on Twitter

But yeah, keep throwing out WS/48, ORTG, DRTG and PER -- cause everyone knows those stats are the be all end all.

[Wooderson]

DeRozan was "AWFUL" for a series and a half (vs Pacers and the first 3 games of vs Heat he was atrocious). Other than that he hasn't been awful at all. Especially against the Cavs, where he put up 23 ppg on 50% shooting. If Giannis is able to put up numbers like that this postseason for the first time, I'll be impressed.

If Giannis played as poorly as DeRozan did in the Pacers or Heat there's zero chance the Bucks win a playoff series much less two so I really don't see how last year is a plus for DeRozan. He's lucky he has a supporting cast good enough to carry him. Hell he had a .425 TS in those two series combined which is just pathetic. Even if Giannis somehow has a scoring series as poor as DeRozan (not gonna happen) at least he still impacts the game in other areas.

The reason I bring up DeRozan is that all types of players struggle in the post season and it's not necessarily an indictment on the style of their play (funny enough you can make a case DeRozan's game isn't built for the post season since his FT rate plummets). The fact that you're using a 6 game sample when Giannis was 20 and early on in his development to project him moving forward is quite strange. He's a completely different player, especially in terms of strength which is a pretty huge deal for a player who lives in the paint.

[Illmatic12]

And the advanced stats don't back the idea of Middleton being that much more productive than Parker.

Ws/48, BPM, ORT, DRTG, PER all have Middleton *slightly* ahead of Parker. VORP has Parker ahead. There's nothing remotely supporting the notion that Middleton's production is worth 5-10 more wins than Parker's over an 82-game season. Middleton is worth 2-3 more wins than Parker at most.

Read on Twitter

But yeah, keep throwing out WS/48, ORTG, DRTG and PER -- cause everyone knows those stats are the be all end all.

So what is that, a 10-15 game sample size during a hot streak?

Don't much care for all those advanced stats, but they definitely don't support the idea that Middleton is worth that many more wins than Parker. You countered by posting RPM which is just another advanced stat like the ones you disregarded .

Jabari helped the Bucks win some games too. He was a much better transition scorer than Middleton and finished better around the rim, drew more FTs. Despite the picture you're trying to paint, he did some positive things that factored into the Bucks W/L record as well. No one player is worth 5-10+ wins unless we're talking about an All-NBA or MVP caliber guy. Bucks with a healthy Middleton and no production from Parker probably have 2-3 more Ws.

[ZeppelinPage]

Don't much care for all those advanced stats, but they definitely don't support the idea that Middleton is worth that many more wins than Parker. You countered by posting RPM which is just another advanced stat like the ones you disregarded .

Jabari helped the Bucks win some games too. He was a much better transition scorer than Middleton and finished better around the rim, drew more FTs. Despite the picture you're trying to paint, he did some positive things that factored into the Bucks W/L record as well. No one player is worth 5-10+ wins unless we're talking about an All-NBA or MVP caliber guy. Bucks with a healthy Middleton and no production from Parker probably have 2-3 more Ws.

You can't list BPM as why Middleton isn't as valuable, then when I list RPM, (which is basically RAPM and BPM, it uses play-by-play data, so more reliable) throw it out. Jabari was trash on defense and his on/off numbers with Giannis weren't that great.

We had lost 10 of our last 12 and now after All-Star, Middleton is suddenly back and we have gone 10-2 with those on/off numbers? Sorry bud, that just isn't a coincidence. The dude can ball. Especially when he was doing similar things in 14-15 and 15-16 regarding his RPM. When Midds came back, we ascended from the trash can to a solid team.

When it comes down to it, any Bucks fan will tell you how valuable Middleton is after watching him these past few years, he is incredibly important to this team. I hope we play the Wiz in the playoffs, he'll show why.

[dakomish23]

I like Giannis but I don't think he's the 2nd best player in the East. He's up there though, probably top 5.

Who's second melo or kristap lol.

Wall Lowry Butler all guys you can make an argument for.

Melo and KP probably not in the top 10

[3Diamantidis]

1. Ofc some fellow bucks fans are overreacting.
2. Ofc the rest of you pointing fingers for this are hypocrites. You don't seem to have problem with the 2-3 threads created PER DAY for lebron, westbrook, curry, cavs, dubs etc.
3. In the future, we'll be making threads only for superstars and superteams. Only fans of these teams can feel optimistic, they can overreact. You can argue 500 times about the same things over and over again n these threads. Again apologies for hyping a small team.
4. Those of you said that middleton is just a 10 game guy who went on a run, don't have a clue regarding the game itself. Middleton is playing like this 2 YEARS now. WTH are you watching?
5. Those of you think that bucks are just unlucky and they should have been well above .500, are clearly don't getting it. Or i don't know what kind of games you're watching. The bucks are inconsistent and injuries have nothing to do with this. They are young, they'll get where they must. In the FUTURE.