Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking!

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Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#1 » by righterwriter » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:37 pm

Pat Riley just came out with an idea yesterday for a post-season tournament to establish the lottery order which looks pretty similar to something I suggested a few months back. See below:

Riley’s proposal: A four-day postseason tournament in which 14 lottery teams participate to determine the draft order. The deeper a team goes the higher the pick and the team that wins the tournament gets the first pick.

He is calling it a “lottery playoff.”

Follow along.

“The season ends on Tuesday, the playoffs start on Sunday, and from Wednesday to Saturday, the lottery teams play a tournament for the pick,” he said. “Now, that’ll stop all that bull—- of guys tanking and all that stuff.

“The 14th team and the first team, there’s equality here now. So no more tanking in the end. I think you’d draw a tremendous amount of fans and great interest. … So play for it, let’s have a little playoff for the top pick in the draft, instead of working on ping-pong balls and all that stuff.”


http://heatzone.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/07/15/heat-president-pat-rileys-unique-solution-to-stop-teams-from-tanking/


My idea posted on RealGM back in March (which is a bit better, imo):

They should have a tournament between when the season ends and the playoffs start to determine draft order.

Take the bottom 8 teams and have them do a tourney where the winner gets the top pick, runner up gets #2, and so on until the worst team in the tourney gets pick #8. Teams #9-14 just pick wherever they end up according to record.

Day 1
Seed #1 (team with best record) plays seed #8 (team with worst record)
2 vs 7
3 vs 6
4 vs 5

Day 3 (one day off for travel/rest)
Winners square off
Losers Square off

Day 5 (one day off for travel/rest)
Final Game to set top pick
Final Losers games to establish picks 3-8

---

This model could work as it helps prevent outright tanking. Being the absolute weakest team in the regular season would give them the worst seed and set them up to get as low as the #8 pick in the draft. If the weak teams compete to the end of the season, perhaps even trading for players at the deadline to strengthen their roster for the tournament, then it's a win for fans who don't like to see their teams not competing.

The downside is that the worst team in the league could end up not getting a clear difference maker since they are picking #8, but it does put pressure on them to improve so that they aren't stuck in the same position next year. Maybe they sign a couple players that look like they could fit with their plan and bring more wins so they can set themselves up for a better pick in next year's tourney.

Another downside is perhaps teams around that #8 seed could tank the rest of the season to try to get in the tourney and get the #1 seed, but I believe most years that teams in this range believe they can get into the actual playoffs until at least the last few weeks of the season, so they'd most likely still want to compete up until the end.

The big upside is there would be much less chance to have godawful teams tanking year after year as a strategy. They have motivation to make real improvements each offseason or else get the #8 pick each year.

It also gives a little extra fun for fans watching the drama of a season ending tournament, which gives game exposure to teams and players that most fans might not care about. The televised games mean more money for teams and players, so it's something the NBA and players union should support.


http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1540168&hilit=tournament&start=100

I'm not saying that Riley took the idea, as I'm probably not the first person to consider this idea of a tournament to establish lottery order, but I've also never heard anyone suggest it before either.

What do you think-- just a coincidence or is there some chance that NBA guys come on Real GM and cherry pick ideas?

Anyway, feel free to discuss the idea of a draft tournament as well, as I think it's kind of cool.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#2 » by heatwillbeback » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:41 pm

The issue with that is the teams closer to the playoffs will win.

There is a point to the worse teams having a the best chance for the highest pick- they need it!

Tanking sucks, but I would rather have it than the worse teams having less of an opportunity to improve.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#3 » by RIPskaterdude » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:43 pm

heatwillbeback wrote:The issue with that is the teams closer to the playoffs will win.

There is a point to the worse teams having a the best chance for the highest pick- they need it!

Tanking sucks, but I would rather have it than the worse teams having less of an opportunity to improve.


Exactly. Meanwhile, the terrible teams that aren't even trying to tank (like the Nets this year) will never improve. Small market teams need the lottery to get stars since they can't get them via FA.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#4 » by DowJones » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:44 pm

Well then you just have 7h and 8th seeds tanking to get out of the playoffs.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#5 » by kbitboc » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:46 pm

Cleveland should tank for a year and get the guaranteed number 1 pick, unless a team like San Antonio decides to tank also.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#6 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:47 pm

This is assuming that players will want their team to have a better pick the next season.

Also, giving better teams better draft picks sounds like a terrible idea.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#7 » by Buckeye-NBAFan » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:47 pm

Tanking is a big problem. Just look at Brooklyn, you can't tell me they didn't purposefully tank to ensure a top 4 pick. They only started winning games after they locked up the worst record.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#8 » by kbitboc » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:48 pm

Buckeye-NBAFan wrote:Tanking is a big problem. Just look at Brooklyn, you can't tell me they didn't purposefully tank to ensure a top 4 pick. They only started winning games after they locked up the worst record.


Why would they intentionally tank when they are losing the pick anyways?
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#9 » by Scalabrine » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:48 pm

I'm reading the title as if you are a pirate.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#10 » by dirkforpres » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:50 pm

Scalabrine wrote:I'm reading the title as if you be a pirate.


FTFY
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#11 » by Scalabrine » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:51 pm

Buckeye-NBAFan wrote:Tanking is a big problem. Just look at Brooklyn, you can't tell me they didn't purposefully tank to ensure a top 4 pick. They only started winning games after they locked up the worst record.


oh boy.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#12 » by Buckeye-NBAFan » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:52 pm

kbitboc wrote:
Buckeye-NBAFan wrote:Tanking is a big problem. Just look at Brooklyn, you can't tell me they didn't purposefully tank to ensure a top 4 pick. They only started winning games after they locked up the worst record.


Why would they intentionally tank when they are losing the pick anyways?


Why indeed... Maybe they just sucked?
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#13 » by MrPerfect1 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:53 pm

The idea doesn't fix tanking at all, if anything it gives more teams a reason to tank. Hmm tough choice, I could either be an 8 seed and get swept by GS or tank instead and likely end up with the #1 pick, tough choice. Although, maybe the team that would have been the 8th Seed won't end up with the #1 pick because then the #5-7 teams might try to tank out of the playoffs too.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#14 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:57 pm

Much easier:
- extract not only the last three picks but all of the ones for teams not in the PS
- adjust the weighted probability, so that being the worst would be less of a premium

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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#15 » by kacey ring » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:57 pm

Just have teams start paying a luxury tax, which can multiply after consecutive years of being in the lottery. Nothing too crazy, but enough to make owners get uncomfortable.

Do people talk about tanking this much in other sports?
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#16 » by mattao313 » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:57 pm

MrPerfect1 wrote:The idea doesn't fix tanking at all, if anything it gives more teams a reason to tank. Hmm tough choice, I could either be an 8 seed and get swept by GS or tank instead and likely end up with the #1 pick, tough choice. Although, maybe the team that would have been the 8th Seed won't end up with the #1 pick because then the #5-7 teams might try to tank out of the playoffs too.

Well the OPs idea was to only do bottom 8 for the tournament you'd have to do some serious tanking as the 5-8 seed to get their.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#17 » by bringinhinkie » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:58 pm

it'd have to be less teams

like the bottom 6--not 14

in re: to rileys
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#18 » by Incipio » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:58 pm

MrPerfect1 wrote:The idea doesn't fix tanking at all, if anything it gives more teams a reason to tank. Hmm tough choice, I could either be an 8 seed and get swept by GS or tank instead and likely end up with the #1 pick, tough choice. Although, maybe the team that would have been the 8th Seed won't end up with the #1 pick because then the #5-7 teams might try to tank out of the playoffs too.


It will be an exciting fight for the borderline playoff teams to try their hardest to not make the playoff. You'll probably see all their starters on these teams be shut down for rest of season.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#19 » by heatwillbeback » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:00 pm

My idea is something like this (the numbers can be worked with)

5 worst teams have a 12 percent chance each (60)
Next 5 have a 6 percent chance each (30)
Next 4 have a 2.5 percent chance each (10)

This will help against blatant tanking because the worst 5 all have the same odds but still give the worst teams the best chance at the pick.
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Re: Pat Riley stole me idea to fix lottery tanking! 

Post#20 » by Roscoe Sheed » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:02 pm

The veterans on the team may have little incentive to play hard- the younger players coming in from the draft are just going to take their jobs- especially if they are top picks

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