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Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

sol537 wrote:Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

Can I get 20:1 on the field please? I'll even take 15:1.

I really like Minnesota's chances. I think Denver are the favorites, narrowly followed by Boston. I then have the T-Wolves third

Rishkar wrote:I really like Minnesota's chances. I think Denver are the favorites, narrowly followed by Boston. I then have the T-Wolves third

The KAT injury took them out of it IMO. Still really good, but not enough.

NyKnicks1714 wrote:

sol537 wrote:Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

Can I get 20:1 on the field please? I'll even take 15:1.

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

sol537 wrote:The KAT injury took them out of it IMO. Still really good, but not enough.

And yet, Towns is scheduled to be back by the playoffs...

Kinda want to see if Embiid can get back into form...but they're certainly the favorites.

sol537 wrote:

NyKnicks1714 wrote:

sol537 wrote:Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

Can I get 20:1 on the field please? I'll even take 15:1.

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

I mean it will probably be Denver or Boston winning it all, but your odds are way too high for them.

Let's say Denver has a 90% chance of winning in the 1st round, an 80% chance of winning in the 2nd round, a 75% chance of winning the WCF, and a 70% chance of winning the Finals (all way higher than their actual chances). Even that gives them a 38% chance of winning it all.

For me it's more like Boston: 30%, Denver 25%

West
Denver 60%
Dallas 15%
Phoenix 10%
Field 15%

East
Boston 75%
Milwaukee 15%
Field 10%

Im pretty positive we will see Denver and Boston in the finals this year. I really dont see anybody in the east beating Boston 4 out of 7. Milwaukee is the best chance but they just look out of sorts at times.

MavsDirk41 wrote:West
Denver 60%
Dallas 15%
Phoenix 10%
Field 15%

East
Boston 75%
Milwaukee 15%
Field 10%

Im pretty positive we will see Denver and Boston in the finals this year. I really dont see anybody in the east beating Boston 4 out of 7. Milwaukee is the best chance but they just look out of sorts at times.

I think it really depends on if KP can hold up for a full run, if he goes down suddenly Boston is very reliant on consistent hot 3 pt shooting with small ball line ups. 1st and 2nd round matchups against Miami/Philly and then New York could be grueling for KP and Horford

NyKnicks1714 wrote:

sol537 wrote:

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
Can I get 20:1 on the field please? I'll even take 15:1.

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

I mean it will probably be Denver or Boston winning it all, but your odds are way too high for them.

Let's say Denver has a 90% chance of winning in the 1st round, an 80% chance of winning in the 2nd round, a 75% chance of winning the WCF, and a 70% chance of winning the Finals (all way higher than their actual chances). Even that gives them a 38% chance of winning it all.

For me it's more like Boston: 30%, Denver 25%

reasonable take.

GiannisAnte34 wrote:

MavsDirk41 wrote:West
Denver 60%
Dallas 15%
Phoenix 10%
Field 15%

East
Boston 75%
Milwaukee 15%
Field 10%

Im pretty positive we will see Denver and Boston in the finals this year. I really dont see anybody in the east beating Boston 4 out of 7. Milwaukee is the best chance but they just look out of sorts at times.

I think it really depends on if KP can hold up for a full run, if he goes down suddenly Boston is very reliant on consistent hot 3 pt shooting with small ball line ups. 1st and 2nd round matchups against Miami/Philly and then New York could be grueling for KP and Horford

I give PHX like a 1% shot of coming out of the West. What a waste. And the Bucks... got too many issues. Maybe they'll get as far as the ECF but Boston would dispatch them with relative ease IMO.

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sol537 wrote:

GiannisAnte34 wrote:

MavsDirk41 wrote:West
Denver 60%
Dallas 15%
Phoenix 10%
Field 15%

East
Boston 75%
Milwaukee 15%
Field 10%

Im pretty positive we will see Denver and Boston in the finals this year. I really dont see anybody in the east beating Boston 4 out of 7. Milwaukee is the best chance but they just look out of sorts at times.

I think it really depends on if KP can hold up for a full run, if he goes down suddenly Boston is very reliant on consistent hot 3 pt shooting with small ball line ups. 1st and 2nd round matchups against Miami/Philly and then New York could be grueling for KP and Horford

I give PHX like a 1% shot of coming out of the West. What a waste. And the Bucks... got too many issues. Maybe they'll get as far as the ECF but Boston would dispatch them with relative ease IMO.

The Bucks have the benefit of a smoother ride to the ECF IMO. Cleveland or Indy in the 2nd round is a lot easier than New York

Look what happened to Tatum when Wiggins locked him up, now imagine what OG can do? We've yet to see the Celtics play against New Yorks full squad

Baseline81 wrote:

sol537 wrote:The KAT injury took them out of it IMO. Still really good, but not enough.

And yet, Towns is scheduled to be back by the playoffs...

Plus they’ve been 6-3 without him. Nice to have Naz Reid.

And no respect for OKC?

knicks fully healthy is unknown but …

ihart
randle
og
divi
brunson
—-
hart
robinson
deuce
bojan

Why do I fell like this is kind of trolling MIL fans Boston is favored for sure, but MIL def can beat Boston. The field easily in this thread. The 2 best teams in the league after the defending Champs are in the East as far as i'm concerned.

I think we see a Denver Boston Finals, and my head says Denver because of Jokics mismatch, but my heart says Celtics because I trust their health and depth more.

I think the West will come down to matchups and how bad the young teams in the playoff moments are for Minny and OKC. I could easily see the Lakers making some noise given the matchup. If they get an OKC team in the first rond, they could win that series and then play either the Pels or Clips in the 2nd :lol MAvs and PHX obviously could make the same run.

It's hard for me to see a team out West beating Denver, unless Luka/Kyrie go off like he and LeBron did in 2016. I'm keeping my eye on the Clippers, they are built for the playoffs this year, as well as Minny if they can get right before the playoffs which I don't think they can.

Th East is going to simply come down to who preforms better on the road between MIL and Bos, and they beat any team not named Denver out West.

Denver-Boston-Mil are the only people i'd bet on to win it all

Hoping for a Boston Minny finals

sol537 wrote:Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

whats your methodology?

if you gave me +800 Juice on the field to win the Finals vs Denver/Boston I'd put a lot down on that

ryguy613 wrote:

sol537 wrote:Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

whats your methodology?

Gut & experience methodology