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NBA Shot Profile: A 20 Year Evolution

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:22 pm
by Jamaaliver
Man, this is crazy to see.
Spoiler:
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Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:26 pm
by Karate Diop
It's less entertaining to watch, but it's better basketball from a tactics standpoint.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:30 pm
by ryan in Maine
I hate it. It feels like a literal case of life imitating art bc threes and dunks was the only way you play NBA Jam. It's all boomshackalacka's and he's on fire's now.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:38 pm
by tsherkin
Replacing elbow jumpers and baseline 15-footers, mostly taken by roleplayers, with 3s isnt much different, though...

So much whinging. Watch good offensive teams and there is a fair amount of variety.

Now do real analysis and look at all the PnR and passing compared to older, non-Chicago/Utah offenses and see what is actually happening...

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:42 pm
by Wolveswin
I think game has improved but needs tweaking.

1) Refs need fixing. Thread in itself.

2) Allow more defense on perimeter. Not sure hand checking is answer, but a player shouldn’t be able to get hammered in lane with no call and barely touched beyond arc with a whistle. Yes, this has been basketball ‘problem’ for the ages, but now with the 3 ball being shot (see OP) this problem is showcased under a spotlight.

3) Court wider and longer. Not drastic. But let’s get some of the best athletes in the world running even more, spaced out and showcasing their athleticism.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:42 pm
by KembaWalker
I don’t really get why people act like it’s some kind of stylistic preference, it’s just truly and simply objectively worse that we’ve lost 3 level basketball. Fewer archetypes in the league make for a more boring sport

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:45 pm
by Jamaaliver
KembaWalker wrote:I don’t really get why people act like it’s some kind of stylistic preference, it’s just truly and simply objectively worse that we’ve lost 3 level basketball. Fewer archetypes in the league make for a more boring sport


It always amuses me when I read a draft profile of a young player being a 3-level scorer...knowing that modern NBA offenses typically only allow 2 level scoring.

It becomes a wasted skill TBH.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:45 pm
by Jamaaliver
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Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:48 pm
by jpengland
It does make me laugh that people are yearning for.the days of Josh Smith throwing up deep 2s and Jerry Stackhouse isolating and throwing up off balance mid rangers.

Basketball got smarter and more talented.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:49 pm
by Spicy P
Make field goals around the basket worth 1 point.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:52 pm
by Jamaaliver
Spicy P wrote:Make field goals around the basket worth 1 point.


:crazy:

Seems like that might be going in the opposite direction.

It would eliminate interior scoring and further incentivize jump shooting contests.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:53 pm
by KembaWalker
I don’t really get what purpose the 3 point shot serves anymore. If the spacing is that valuable and you can hit shots from there at 40ish percent then that seems to have enough inherent strategic value on its own that the extra point isn’t necessary. Let spacing be the advantage instead of some line randomly deeming a shot worth 33% more than a shot 1 millimeter shorter

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:17 pm
by SeattleJazzFan
KembaWalker wrote:I don’t really get what purpose the 3 point shot serves anymore. If the spacing is that valuable and you can hit shots from there at 40ish percent then that seems to have enough inherent strategic value on its own that the extra point isn’t necessary. Let spacing be the advantage instead of some line randomly deeming a shot worth 33% more than a shot 1 millimeter shorter


i don't know that i agree with this entirely, but i don't think it's a bad point.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:18 pm
by Ambrose
I prefer 2014.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:32 pm
by Bum Adebayo
KembaWalker wrote:I don’t really get what purpose the 3 point shot serves anymore. If the spacing is that valuable and you can hit shots from there at 40ish percent then that seems to have enough inherent strategic value on its own that the extra point isn’t necessary. Let spacing be the advantage instead of some line randomly deeming a shot worth 33% more than a shot 1 millimeter shorter


If it was worth 33% more points, we wouldn't have these issues, unfortunately, a 3pt shot is worth 50% more than a 2pt shot. In fact, 33% is what 3 -> 4 and 2 -> 3 would accomplish, and we would be much better with that change.

It's not about purpose or not, people simply don't want to admit that a 3pt shot being worth 50% more than a midrange shot never made sense from the beginning, and so they need to find alternative changes and complaints, like moving screens, corner 3, hand checking, etc. None of this would solve shot balance. The issue is in the value of each shot itself, it just took the best shooter ever winning a ring and a team like Rockets implementing that strategy to shift the paradigm forever, but that doesn't mean 3pt shot wasn't OP from the beginning, it was.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:33 pm
by Bum Adebayo
jpengland wrote:It does make me laugh that people are yearning for.the days of Josh Smith throwing up deep 2s and Jerry Stackhouse isolating and throwing up off balance mid rangers.

Basketball got smarter and more talented.


Yeah, these days it's 3pt chucking instead.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:46 pm
by Pelon chingon
Boring brand of basketball being played.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:46 pm
by dhsilv2
Jamaaliver wrote:
KembaWalker wrote:I don’t really get why people act like it’s some kind of stylistic preference, it’s just truly and simply objectively worse that we’ve lost 3 level basketball. Fewer archetypes in the league make for a more boring sport


It always amuses me when I read a draft profile of a young player being a 3-level scorer...knowing that modern NBA offenses typically only allow 2 level scoring.

It becomes a wasted skill TBH.


3 levels is allowed by the allstars. If this were the top 300 shots by the guys who made the allstar game for example, it would look significantly different.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:03 pm
by NyKnicks1714
The NBA can't ban math. Everyone focuses on rule changes but bringing back hand-checking isn't going to lead to more mid-range shots.The only way to do that is to get rid of the three-point line, or at the very least the corner three...but then you'd see some really ugly basketball, and teams would all eventually converge on a new ideal shot distribution.

Variety between team strategies is mostly gone, and whatever is left depends on individual talents. Said it before and don't know who came up with the idea originally, but teams having multiple options for home 3-point-line placement is the only way I can see to bring some of that back. Give teams 3 or 4 options to choose from that they select before and keep throughout the entire season.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:16 pm
by Shock Defeat
RIP baseline jumpers.