Tanking for the Lottery

[Parataxis]

We're about to enter one of the worst parts of the NBA season. Teams realise that their playoff hopes won't come to fruition, so they enter the other race - to the bottom.

The system as it currently is encourages tanking. The worse you do, the better your chances of drafting a stud.

Any solutions to this problem (and it is a problem : tanking ruins the competitiveness, and screws with the playoff-bound teams by making some games gimmes)? Personally, I'd be in favour of an equal lottery for non-playoff teams - everybody has a 1/14 chance for the top spot (to help the truly awful teams, maybe make the lottery for the first five spots, and then in order of performance from there - no worse than dropping to 6th if you're at the bottom).

Anybody else?

[Puertorique]

We're about to enter one of the worst parts of the NBA season. Teams realise that their playoff hopes won't come to fruition, so they enter the other race - to the bottom.

The system as it currently is encourages tanking. The worse you do, the better your chances of drafting a stud.

Any solutions to this problem (and it is a problem : tanking ruins the competitiveness, and screws with the playoff-bound teams by making some games gimmes)? Personally, I'd be in favour of an equal lottery for non-playoff teams - everybody has a 1/14 chance for the top spot (to help the truly awful teams, maybe make the lottery for the first five spots, and then in order of performance from there - no worse than dropping to 6th if you're at the bottom).

Anybody else?

A team's objective is to always make itself better. If a team knows they are horrible, why not rest your best players in a chance to get a good,great or franchise player in return? If I was a GM of lets say the Knicks, Warriors, Nets, Sixers, any horrible team, I would look at the over all benefits of playing hard and winning 4 more games or resting my best players and possibly getting a top 5 pick. It is the responsibility of management to help the team get better, be it sacrificing a season for a legit shot at a player who can change a franchise. Nothing needs to be fixed about the tanking situation, especially when the worst team rarely gets the #1 pick.

[OneTime86]

I don't hate the lottery as it is today. Having even a top 5 worst record doesn't guarantee anything.

[Agenda42]

Personally, I'd be in favour of an equal lottery for non-playoff teams - everybody has a 1/14 chance for the top spot

Doesn't this encourage teams on the bubble to try to tank their way out of the 8th seed?

[mavfan12]

Still a better system than giving the pick to the worst team outright isn't it?

[Sofa King]

Those that don't make the playoffs, with the highest record have the best shot at number 1 pick.

[mavfan12]

Those that don't make the playoffs, with the highest record have the best shot at number 1 pick.

Interesting idea, but that really just means the rich get richer while holding some of the legitimately bad teams down for longer periods of time, which is terrible for fans in those cities and the revenues the NBA gets there. I don't think the NBA wants to see any franchise have consecutive years playing in front of empty arenas.

This also means that a team like a Portland or Phoenix may find it better to miss the playoffs than go into them hurt and lose in the first round.

[Puertorique]

Those that don't make the playoffs, with the highest record have the best shot at number 1 pick.

Yeah, but it's still far from guaranteed. It's not very often that the team with the worst pick gets the #1 or 2 pick. It's more common for the worst team to get between the 3/4/5 pick in event of a tie and factoring in tie breakers. The #1 pick is not determined by tanking, you may have the worst record it just doesn't guarantee it.

[boogydown]

Ridiculous thread.

If you want to go to the NFL rule where the last team makes the playoffs fine, however the lottery is setup perfectly as is.

The way the NBA needs to change though is shorter contracts, and less cap room for owners.

[Mamba Venom]

Just make it where the team in last place place cant get the 1st overall pick.

An epic game would be the 2 last place teams playing each other where the loser is eliminated from getting the 1st pick. I would watch.

Kind of like price is right rules. If you tank there is a risk. If the other person (or team in this case) comes in just ahead of you, you are the loser. Some might say boo-hoo but the they could still get the 2nd overall pick.

I also only think players should get 75% of their salary during games when they are injured because the team has to pay someone else to do their job. Maybe a sick week is needed. I only get so many not healthy days. It would make guys tougher. If a 10 million a year player missed 30 games he would make 9.08 mil that year instead with no sick/injury period. The players still get paid but it helps the organization deal w/ guys that are always hurt.

[turtlesnjoi]

Just make it where the team in last place place cant get the 1st overall pick.

Why? That's so...stupid.

If a team is genuinely tanking then they could easily play to a level above the worst team in the league.

[Parataxis]

A team's objective is to always make itself better. If a team knows they are horrible, why not rest your best players in a chance to get a good,great or franchise player in return? If I was a GM of lets say the Knicks, Warriors, Nets, Sixers, any horrible team, I would look at the over all benefits of playing hard and winning 4 more games or resting my best players and possibly getting a top 5 pick. It is the responsibility of management to help the team get better, be it sacrificing a season for a legit shot at a player who can change a franchise. Nothing needs to be fixed about the tanking situation, especially when the worst team rarely gets the #1 pick.

Yes, that's the situation as it is now. It's good for teams that tank, but bad for fans - it makes games uncompetitive.

While the role of the GM is to improve the team as much as possible, the role of the NBA head office is to make the games as exciting for fans as possible (so more fans watch, buy more stuff, make more money, etc...). Watching a race to the bottom is not exciting; it's counter-productive.

It's precisely because we have such a skewed system that it's a 'good thing' for some teams to 'sacrifice a season'. That's pretty much proof positive that the system needs to change. The question though, is how?

As to the poster above who suggested that teams on the bubble might tank their way out of the playoffs, I don't really see this as a risk. Making the playoffs has a host of benefits (added exposure, added ticket sales, etc...) that not making does not. There's a lot more difference in terms of ratings and money between being #8 and #9 in a conference, than between being #15 and #12.

EDIT: Out of interest, for those supporting the current system, where is your team likely to place? My team is playoff bound, so none of this affects me beyond watching good basketball.

[Wilford Brimley]

I'm still waiting for them to show us the damn ping pong balls. Until then I won't believe its not fixed.

[CrymeTime]

You never want to be the worst team. You may have the best odds at #1, but you have greater odds at #4.

[jefe]

The current system is the best attempt at balancing countervailing interests: discouraging blantant & intentional losing on one hand, while allowing legitimately bad teams to have a better shot at the best players on the other hand. Many of the proposals in this thread so far (and the ones to come) are probably going to push the line too far to one side or the other IMO. There's no perfect solution, but the lottery is the best system we have IMO - and Im with Wilford Brimley, they need to televise the drawing of the pingpong balls.

[alucryts]

The current system is the best attempt at balancing countervailing interests: discouraging blantant & intentional losing on one hand, while allowing legitimately bad teams to have a better shot at the best players on the other hand. Many of the proposals in this thread so far (and the ones to come) are probably going to push the line too far to one side or the other IMO. There's no perfect solution, but the lottery is the best system we have IMO - and Im with Wilford Brimley, they need to televise the drawing of the pingpong balls.

i agree. the nature of the beast is that in basketball, a single great college player can dramatically alter the success of an entire franchise for a decade. in football, that player will only be part of offense or defense with a huge chance of BUST. so the 20th pick could be as good as a top 5 pick or even the #1 pick. tanking in the NFL isn't as big a deal because of the unpredictability of the players. In the NBA, it is much easier to predict how a player will translate and this is why tanking is a huge issue.

the current lottery system is prolly the best you can get, but i would like the drawings televised as well

[Zin5]

It's fine the way it is. You disrupt the balance of the league if you try to change it too much (ie best non-playoff team getting the top picks). Usually, the worst records generally are the worst teams. They might compete to lose some more, but they're still going to be in the same general area as if they didn't tank. Let the weak replenish.

[rpa]

i agree. the nature of the beast is that in basketball, a single great college player can dramatically alter the success of an entire franchise for a decade. in football, that player will only be part of offense or defense with a huge chance of BUST. so the 20th pick could be as good as a top 5 pick or even the #1 pick. tanking in the NFL isn't as big a deal because of the unpredictability of the players. In the NBA, it is much easier to predict how a player will translate and this is why tanking is a huge issue.

the current lottery system is prolly the best you can get, but i would like the drawings televised as well

+1. And don't forget the salaries for NFL draftees vs. NBA draftees. You draft a QB 1st overall and he's getting Peyton Manning money from the getgo. You draft Lebron James 1st overall in the NBA and he doesn't even get DeSagana Diop money.

[LeBron's Time]

i know cleveland do the tank to get lebron, same as the san antonio on duncan

worst record in the nba has the higher chance to get the #1 pick overall, #4 pick overall was the worst case scenario by the worst record (not bad either). but i believe the lottery ping pong balls was fixed



i know one team that already out in playoff contention, start tanking after the all star break.

*clue*
they have the best rookie this year...

[knicksNOTslick]

The only problem I have with the lottery is that the worst team gets a 25 percent chance at the #1 pick. The worst team's chances shouldn't be that high. The five worst (or eight....or ten) should be closer in terms of ping pong balls.