'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[ceiling raiser]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/746377998102847492[/tweet]

Thanks bondom! Reposting here from the RAPM thread.

[SideshowBob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/746377998102847492[/tweet]

I posted Google Folder link with 01-15 NPI 1Y & 3Y data some time back in this thread. Should be q decent point of reference and we could get a better sense of scale.

[dontcalltimeout]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/746377998102847492[/tweet]

Thanks bondom! Reposting here from the RAPM thread.

Same top 6 in multi-year and NPI. Kawhi is 6th in both, Curry/Durant/Paul vying for spots 3-5, and LeBron and Draymond in the 1st and 2nd spots. Really interesting.

LeBron's defense looking like his highest since 2012 (3rd highest mark in his career on defense after 2011 and 2012).
Draymond looking even better than last year on defense (Kawhi is slightly better too).

[SideshowBob]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

[ceiling raiser]

.

Could you comment a bit on the effect of missing games in the playoffs on championship odds? Particularly I would like to see you break down Curry and Green (and with regards to Curry, how it compares to the case of Dirk in 03, who suffered a similar injury, but in the WCF as opposed to during the first round).

[JordansBulls]

Things have changed

forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1423033&start=318#start_here

[kayess]

https://talkingpracticeblog.com/

More RAPM-family stats

[PearGreatness]

.

Could you comment a bit on the effect of missing games in the playoffs on championship odds? Particularly I would like to see you break down Curry and Green (and with regards to Curry, how it compares to the case of Dirk in 03, who suffered a similar injury, but in the WCF as opposed to during the first round).

I too am curious of this. How much does missing a finals game reduce championship odds? Maybe Magic really did deserve that mvp?

I'm still not entirely sure on how to account for injury though.

How random-vs-inevitable are these injuries given a player's physical makeup and play style. The answer drastically changes my conclusions, and I'm pretty close to 50/50 on the answer.

[mikejames23]

Things have changed

forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1423033&start=318#start_here

Oh boy. His Top 5 status was being questioned. How often do we see a player pace himself like this?

[ElGee]

.

Could you comment a bit on the effect of missing games in the playoffs on championship odds? Particularly I would like to see you break down Curry and Green (and with regards to Curry, how it compares to the case of Dirk in 03, who suffered a similar injury, but in the WCF as opposed to during the first round).

I too am curious of this. How much does missing a finals game reduce championship odds? Maybe Magic really did deserve that mvp?

I'm still not entirely sure on how to account for injury though.

How random-vs-inevitable are these injuries given a player's physical makeup and play style. The answer drastically changes my conclusions, and I'm pretty close to 50/50 on the answer.

See this post on pg 16 of the thread viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1433618&p=47060519#p47060519

Of course, Curry, isn't slated to miss the entire second round, but instead a few games in the series. If he missed the first round only, the odds drop from about 0.30 to 0.25. Assuming those first 2 or 3 games of the series missed reduces winning the series by an average of 10-20%, that brings the expected titles down to 0.22, or about a 4.5-5 SRS player. The problem is, there's a similar dent to the team even if Steph is like a +7 (brings it down to something like 0.25 titles, or a 5-5.5 SRS player).

In summary, it matters, but if you can come back early in the second round, you are still providing great value. Personally, I'd curve 8 to 5.5, 7 to 5 and 6 to 4.5. The knee injury pretty much makes it impossible for me to consider him for GOAT, or probably even an all-time season.

For a FINALS game, the opponent is likely to be better. The average Finals (and Conference Finals) opponent is about a +6 SRS team. I looked at 0-7 SRS teams (without the +5 player) against an average Finals opponent (+6) for a simplified calculation of this effect.

Missing one Finals game for these teams (against said +6 competition) changes the odds of winning the series from ~67% to ~61%, or a 6% drop. That's going to correspond to about a 3% decrease in title odds for these kinds of top-seeded teams. On slightly better teams, the effect will be lesser. So yeah, missing a Conference Finals or Finals game should ding a player by a little -- maybe 2% in title odds contributed.

Simplified rules of thumb: Missing time in the regular season is OK. (Even huge amounts of time.) Missing a game in the 1st round is close to negligible. Missing multiple games starts to add up in either of the first 2 rounds (see Curry). Missing time, even just one game, in the Final 4 is an issue.

[Bruh Man]

Things have changed

forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1423033&start=318#start_here

Oh boy. His Top 5 status was being questioned. How often do we see a player pace himself like this?

I think it is common with veteran players and teams, Spurs have always been great at managing minutes and not going all out in the regular season despite winning 50+ a season for damn near 2 decades. Warriors would be smart to limit their star players minutes next season and save themselves for the playoffs.

[The High Cyde]

Is there gonna be an official vote soon? Or is it just a discussion?

I say LBJ is POY, his dominance in the Finals overahadows pretty much everything Curry did, to me at least.

[Quotatious]

Is there gonna be an official vote soon? Or is it just a discussion?

There will be official voting, this thread will be part of the Retro Player of the Year project.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1004743

[JordansBulls]

Things have changed

forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1423033&start=318#start_here

Oh boy. His Top 5 status was being questioned. How often do we see a player pace himself like this?

Now you can see why someone like 1993 and 1998 MJ would coast in the regular season because when you are the champs or used to getting to the finals and winning it all you aren't going to go all out every year in the regular season especially if you have injuries on your squad. You just want to get to the playoffs with no injuries and then gear up. Same when people would try to say Hakeem in 1993 was better (even though MJ had greater numbers anyway) or Malone/Shaq in 1998. No one would vote for someone to be the best player in the league if his team got swept in the playoffs on a 60+ win team. Malone and Shaq had better numbers in the season but MJ ultimately winning it all and taking league and finals mvp is why he is ahead of them that season

[Doctor MJ]

Hey guys, I've been having some computer issues. I'll try to get the finalized list up tonight along with the voting thread.

Thanks for your patience.

[JordansBulls]

Hey guys, I've been having some computer issues. I'll try to get the finalized list up tonight along with the voting thread.

Thanks for your patience.

How long will the discussion be because I will be out of pocket from the 1st to 11th?

[Doctor MJ]

Here's an unofficial vote for me. Interested to see people's thoughts on it:

POY
1. LeBron James
2. Steph Curry
3. Kevin Durant
4. Kawhi Leonard
5. Russell Westbrook

HM: Paul, Green, Irving, Lowry, Klay

Well and good to say that 2 games shouldn't be more important than an entire season, but literally you can argue easily that LeBron was more impressive than Curry in each of the 4 rounds of the playoffs. Hard for me to overlook that.

I was struggling with what to do with Durant. I think Westbrook has a good case over him, and Kawhi has a good case over Westbrook. The reality is though that I do see Durant as the best player of the 3, he has no clear disadvantage over the others based on season stats, and I was really impressed by how he shifted to a more defensive role when his team needed it.

Paul was hurt by the injury here along with Westbrook playing such a key role in OKC triumphant (if eventually sad) post-season.

I get why people have Green in the Top 5, and I get it if people see me overreacted to small sample size based on his struggles against OKC and his ever-present boneheaded temper tantrums. If competitions were less fierce, he'd still be in my Top 5.

OPOY
1. Steph Curry
2. LeBron James
3. Russell Westbrook

I worry here about this being a bit too neat in terms of consolation prizes, but it just makes sense to me.

DPOY
1. Kawhi Leonard
2. Draymond Green
3. Rudy Gobert

HM: Millsap
I could see good arguments swaying me for Green here specifically.

ROY
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Kristaps Porzingis
3. Nikola Jokic

HM: Winslow

I always say this is a tough award if you take it truly seriously. Future stars just aren't played to max out value, so I don't think of it as a Most Valuable Rookie award, at the same time I don't go purely by potential either though in this case my top 3 are ordered in that way.

MIP
1. CJ McCollum
2. Giannis Antetotetotetotetokounmpo
3. Jae Crowder

I wanted to vote for Giannis here, as he's the most exciting improver to me and McCollum feels like a guy given opportunity more than anything else. He sure did make the most of that opportunity though.

6MOY
1. Tristan Thompson
2. Andre Iguodala
3. Patrick Patterson

I actually didn't think Thompson would be eligible this year, but since he is, I think he's earned the nod even over Iggy.

COY
1. Gregg Popovich
2. Steve Kerr
3. Brad Stevens

Pop's the GOAT of course. He also incorporated Aldridge extremely well while adopting a new scheme that focused Kawhi much more than ever and in retrospect he's the architect of the anti-Warrior scheme that others used so well in the playoffs.

As for Kerr, well, I am a believer that we shouldn't be afraid to vote for the guy coaching the best team here, particularly if he's already established as elite. I could see him not in your Top 3 if you're excited enough about other guys though.

EOY

1. Spurs/RC Buford
2. Pistons/Stan Van Gundy
3. Blazers/Neil Olshey

Spurs had the big off-season and it worked.
Pistons had the balls to let Monroe go and the balls to lock up a guy in Jackson I still don't really like...but I have to acknowledge he works well in the role they use him, and his salary is down right modest at this point.
Blzaers had the sad off-season that was actually for the best, and Olshey once again made moves to shore things up that I have to tip my hat too. Clippers should never have let him go.

[RSCD3_]

Here's an unofficial vote for me. Interested to see people's thoughts on it:

POY
1. LeBron James
2. Steph Curry
3. Kevin Durant
4. Kawhi Leonard
5. Russell Westbrook

HM: Paul, Green, Irving, Lowry, Klay

Well and good to say that 2 games shouldn't be more important than an entire season, but literally you can argue easily that LeBron was more impressive than Curry in each of the 4 rounds of the playoffs. Hard for me to overlook that.

I was struggling with what to do with Durant. I think Westbrook has a good case over him, and Kawhi has a good case over Westbrook. The reality is though that I do see Durant as the best player of the 3, he has no clear disadvantage over the others based on season stats, and I was really impressed by how he shifted to a more defensive role when his team needed it.

Paul was hurt by the injury here along with Westbrook playing such a key role in OKC triumphant (if eventually sad) post-season.

I get why people have Green in the Top 5, and I get it if people see me overreacted to small sample size based on his struggles against OKC and his ever-present boneheaded temper tantrums. If competitions were less fierce, he'd still be in my Top 5.

OPOY
1. Steph Curry
2. LeBron James
3. Russell Westbrook

I worry here about this being a bit too neat in terms of consolation prizes, but it just makes sense to me.

DPOY
1. Kawhi Leonard
2. Draymond Green
3. Rudy Gobert

HM: Millsap
I could see good arguments swaying me for Green here specifically.

ROY
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Kristaps Porzingis
3. Nikola Jokic

HM: Winslow

I always say this is a tough award if you take it truly seriously. Future stars just aren't played to max out value, so I don't think of it as a Most Valuable Rookie award, at the same time I don't go purely by potential either though in this case my top 3 are ordered in that way.

MIP
1. CJ McCollum
2. Giannis Antetotetotetotetokounmpo
3. Jae Crowder

I wanted to vote for Giannis here, as he's the most exciting improver to me and McCollum feels like a guy given opportunity more than anything else. He sure did make the most of that opportunity though.

6MOY
1. Tristan Thompson
2. Andre Iguodala
3. Patrick Patterson

I actually didn't think Thompson would be eligible this year, but since he is, I think he's earned the nod even over Iggy.

COY
1. Gregg Popovich
2. Steve Kerr
3. Brad Stevens

Pop's the GOAT of course. He also incorporated Aldridge extremely well while adopting a new scheme that focused Kawhi much more than ever and in retrospect he's the architect of the anti-Warrior scheme that others used so well in the playoffs.

As for Kerr, well, I am a believer that we shouldn't be afraid to vote for the guy coaching the best team here, particularly if he's already established as elite. I could see him not in your Top 3 if you're excited enough about other guys though.

EOY

1. Spurs/RC Buford
2. Pistons/Stan Van Gundy
3. Blazers/Neil Olshey

Spurs had the big off-season and it worked.
Pistons had the balls to let Monroe go and the balls to lock up a guy in Jackson I still don't really like...but I have to acknowledge he works well in the role they use him, and his salary is down right modest at this point.
Blzaers had the sad off-season that was actually for the best, and Olshey once again made moves to shore things up that I have to tip my hat too. Clippers should never have let him go.

How do you consider the job Pop did in the playoffs? Did you think he was outcoached or do you consider it a case where they were lucky to be where they were with any other coach so the fact they were upset doesnt bother you as much.

Also If they have a style that yields itself well to overachieving in the regular season but they cant keep up the pace, which was GOAT team in any other year GS wasnt playing, how do you evaluate it?

Personally from a perspective level I think pop's stubborn lack of adjustments until the very end was indicative of his flaws that he comes up with good plans often but he sticks to things like glue. If something isnt working with the plan he is hesitamt to change it. OKC seemed to find lineups that Pop couldnt counter and for a team that SRS wise should have been a big favorite, I consider it a disappointment, that they couldnt make the WCF.

As lorak has mentioned in the Other thread Kanter played a lot of minutes and was barely engaged in many pick and rolls. That's like having james harden's assignment not move off the ball. They also could have went smaller with aldridge and kawhi at the 4 to force kanter to guard leonard or keep him off the floor together.

Pop had many options, it was like a man who has a bunch of keys and is trying to open a door to get him into the next room but when the first key kind of fits he spends a ton of time jigging it to no avail until quickly trying to go through random ones at the last minute. Yeah he cant get to all of them at once and he still might not get to the right key in time but it certainly gives him a better chance than hoping that the one that kind offits will fit.

[lorak]

Pop is GOAT? I hope you are not serious, not after season, when he again was exposed in the playoffs. He shouldn't be in anyone's top 3 this year.

[ElGee]

Here's an unofficial vote for me. Interested to see people's thoughts on it:

POY
1. LeBron James
2. Steph Curry
3. Kevin Durant
4. Kawhi Leonard
5. Russell Westbrook

HM: Paul, Green, Irving, Lowry, Klay

Well and good to say that 2 games shouldn't be more important than an entire season, but literally you can argue easily that LeBron was more impressive than Curry in each of the 4 rounds of the playoffs. Hard for me to overlook that.

But so much of that is LeBron playing easier competition and Curry hitting a wet spot on the floor. Of course you can treat the injury in a myriad of ways, but the statement overlooks (see what I did there?) the larger picture of the entire season and the odds a player helps his team win more.

OPOY
1. Steph Curry
2. LeBron James
3. Russell Westbrook

This is interesting. So Steph's offense is still better than James (by a little?) but LJ makes it up on defense in POY. What's the thinking here? Westbrook also catches my eye given your past problems with him (and my advocacy of his value), where you have him over a player like Durant who I assume you also find wildly more portable.

DPOY
1. Kawhi Leonard
2. Draymond Green
3. Rudy Gobert

In short: Green has more of a defensive brain, higher defensive usage, better rim protector and can successfully guard all kinds of players. Leonard falls just behind in all areas -- why give Leonard the nod here?