Retro POY '97-98 (Voting Complete)

[Manuel Calavera]

My list:

1. Malone
2. Jordan
3. Shaq
4. Payton
5. Duncan

[Doctor MJ]

Did JordansBulls and sp6er get banned or something?

JB got suspended, sp6r's out of town.

Just while we're on the topic, I'm happy to post votes for a couple people who will be away for a week or so. If it goes beyond that, all bets are off.

EDIT: One thing I'll also make clear, JB's suspended for stuff that having nothing to do with this project. If someone gets suspended because of their behavior on this project, I'll probably permanently boot them, and even if I don't, I really doubt I'll be willing to put more work in to make they get their vote counted.

[Doctor MJ]

'97-98 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Michael Jordan   21   4   0   0   0 238   0.952
2. Karl Malone       4  20   1   0   0 185   0.740
3. Shaquille O'Neal  0   1  17   5   1 108   0.432
4. Gary Payton       0   0   6  12   4  70   0.280
5. David Robinson    0   0   1   5   9  29   0.116
6. Tim Duncan        0   0   0   3   9  18   0.072
7. Grant Hill        0   0   0   0   1   1   0.004
   Tim Hardaway      0   0   0   0   1   1   0.004


[lorak]

Doctor MJ,
If I’m not mistaken two voters had Duncan and Robinson tied for 5th spot and you give Duncan and Robinson 0.5 point each, right? If so, I think it’s far better idea than what you done when last time we have tie (“first name gets the vote” – I guess that was the rule) and I hope it will be that way to the end of this great project

[Doctor MJ]

Doctor MJ,
If I’m not mistaken two voters had Duncan and Robinson tied for 5th spot and you give Duncan and Robinson 0.5 point each, right? If so, I think it’s far better idea than what you done when last time we have tie (“first name gets the vote” – I guess that was the rule) and I hope it will be that way to the end of this great project

Ah, well kinda. I'm basically ruling by 1) no partial votes, and 2) common sense. You can't split votes in the NBA MVP, and dealing with ties is just a pain in the ass for me, so I'm basically unsympathetic to people not being able to make up their minds (This project is about ranking players for quantitative use, it's what y'all signed up for, so just make a decision - it won't be the end of the world no matter what you decide). Hence the "first guy you mention gets the nod" rule (and if somebody starts posting "tie between the two towers" I may not count that vote at all).

That said, if I see two guys tie twice, I can give each one nod without getting any fractional votes, and it seems pretty clearly what both voters prefer, so no point in me being obstinate.

[Dr Positivity]

I would vote for outlawing ties period, after this. Make a stand!

[semi-sentient]

Site updated: http://www.dolem.com/poy

No changes to the top 5, but Malone will be bumping off LeBron after the 96-97 voting is complete, more than likely.

[mysticbb]

'97-98 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Michael Jordan   21   4   0   0   0 238   0.952
2. Karl Malone       4  20   1   0   0 185   0.740
3. Shaquille O'Neal  0   1  17   5   1 108   0.432
4. Gary Payton       0   0   6  12   4  70   0.280
5. David Robinson    0   0   1   5   9  29   0.116
6. Tim Duncan        0   0   0   3   9  18   0.072
7. Grant Hill        0   0   0   0   1   1   0.004
   Tim Hardaway      0   0   0   0   1   1   0.004


Well, seems like there were 4 people out here who didn't watch the finals 1998. If it weren't for Malone's bad performances in 3 of those 6 games, I likely would have give it more thoughts. Malone was my MVP of the regular season, not Jordan, but Jordan was close enough to make up for that with a great playoff run.

[Gongxi]

No, I didn't watch it. I was only in my late teens, living in Chicago. Somehow I missed that series, though.

[mysticbb]

No, I didn't watch it. I was only in my late teens, living in Chicago. Somehow I missed that series, though.

Well, and who was the better player in that series? Who was the guy who carried his team to the win in game 6 when his sidekick was out with a back injury?

[Gongxi]

Jordan.

I thought this was for the "Retro Player of the Year, 97-98". That's what the thread says on my computer. Did you think it was "Who was the better player in that series? Who was the guy who carried his team to the win in game 6 when his sidekick was out with a back injury 97-98?"?

[mysticbb]

This is an interesting concept that I'd like to hear more about.

Sorry, just saw your post, but I guess it is worth an answer.

I really like that concept too, because it can give us a good idea of the impact a player had even without +/- numbers. I tried to work with Oliver's individual offensive and defensive ratings a little bit in the last week or so. The idea was a metric which should have a rather high correlation to the +/- numbers. Well, my concept works for OnCourt +/- with a linear correlation coefficient of around 0.8. But it is way worse for Net+/- or APM. It might be a good idea to adjust that rating with some sort of a factor for being close to the overall team values.

Anyway, if you want to read more about that concept by Dean Oliver, I can strongely suggest reading his book "Basketball On Paper". I would say it is really worth the money.

[mysticbb]

Did you think it was "Who was the better player in that series? Who was the guy who carried his team to the win in game 6 when his sidekick was out with a back injury 97-98?"?

Nope, that is the reason I said Malone was also my MVP during the regular season, but the whole year also has to include the playoffs. And Jordan was in the regular season not far behind Malone, but way better in the playoffs, especially in the finals in which they played against each other. Those 6 games were the most important games in 1997/98, I guess they should be valued more than say 6 games in the regular season, shouldn't they?

[Gongxi]

They are. I consider playoff games to be twice as important. But the separation between Jordan and Malone was clear in the regular season, the separation between them in the playoffs wasn't enough to make up the ground.

I'm looking at the entire season, not just the last 15 seconds of it, sorry.

[ElGee]

No, I didn't watch it. I was only in my late teens, living in Chicago. Somehow I missed that series, though.

Gongxi, what the heck were you doing that summer? Very poor decision not to watch that series.

[Gongxi]

I was being sarcastic. I can remember every game distinctly and where I was for all of them.

[mysticbb]

I'm looking at the entire season, not just the last 15 seconds of it, sorry.

Sure, but it looks like you put more weight into the regular season than into the playoffs.

Regular season:

Malone: 27.9 PER, 16.4 WS, 0.259 WS/48
Jordan: 25.2 PER, 15.8 WS, 0.238 WS/48

Playoffs:

Malone: 24.2 PER, 3.0 WS, 0.184 WS/48
Jordan: 28.1 PER, 4.8 WS, 0.265 WS/48

Not quite sure how much you put into those numbers, but the seperation between Jordan and Malone in the playoffs was bigger than Malone ahead of Jordan in the regular season. Unless you are weighting the regular season games as much as the playoff games, I don't see how you can say with a straight face that Jordan was worse than Malone.

[ElGee]

I was being sarcastic. I can remember every game distinctly and where I was for all of them.

I thought the "crazy" icon was enough to indicate I was too.

[Gongxi]

I'm looking at the entire season, not just the last 15 seconds of it, sorry.

Sure, but it looks like you put more weight into the regular season than into the playoffs.

Of course I do. The regular season is like four times larger.

[JordansBulls]

1997-1998

1. M.Jordan - Won League and Finals MVP (30.8 PER in the Finals), Led in Playoff WS, was 2nd in playoff PER, 2nd in WS in the season and 4th in PER on the season. All NBA 1st Team And Defense, Led the league in Scoring and won title the same year.


2. K.Malone - All NBA 1st Team And Defense, finished 2nd in MVP for the season and 1st in Win
Shares.

3. Shaq - Led the league in PER in the playoffs and season, led team to 61 wins, finished 4th in
MVP voting.

4. Gary Payton - All NBA 1st Team and Defense and led team to 61 wins and finished 5th in WS.
Finished 3rd in MVP voting

5. D.Robinson - Finished 3rd in WS on the season and 3rd in PER, finished 7th in MVP voting


HM: Tim Duncan (5th in MVP voting), Grant Hill


MJ vs Malone

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y2=1998

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _1998.html

Another thing I wanted to point out was the impact overall in the playoffs.


Win Shares Playoffs

1. Michael Jordan*-CHI 4.8
2. Karl Malone*-UTA 3.0


Player Efficiency Rating Playoffs

2. Michael Jordan*-CHI 28.1
5. Karl Malone*-UTA 24.2



So while Malone was a tad better in the regular season, MJ was better in the playoffs.

Malone had MJ by 0.6 in Win Shares in the season and by 2.7 in PER in the season.

MJ had Malone by 1.8 Win Shares in the season and by by 3.9 PER in the playoffs.


Win Shares Season

1. Karl Malone*-UTA 16.4
2. Michael Jordan*-CHI 15.8


Player Efficiency Rating Season

2. Karl Malone*-UTA 27.9
4. Michael Jordan*-CHI 25.2


Jordan had a 30.8 PER in the finals and won without HCA while Malone had a 26.8 PER in the finals.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basket ... final.html


Michael Jordan interview - 1998 Finals @ the 1:00-1:10 mark MJ mentions that the Jazz were to dominate the Bulls

I just can't rank another player over a player that won Season and Finals MVP the same year.

To me ranking Malone over MJ in 1998 is worse than someone ranking Robinson over Hakeem in 1995.

Sure Malone and Robinson may have had the better overall regular season, but MJ and Hakeem had the better playoffs and actually won the head to head battle without HCA.

So if you rank Malone over MJ in 1998 based off of regular season, then you must apply the same of ranking Robinson over Hakeem in 1995.

I won't simply because Hakeem was still the champion from 1994, just like MJ was still the champion from 1997 and they both had better playoffs then their counterparts especially when they squared off.


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2 ... ormances-2

JORDAN'S FINALS STATS
Points per game: 33.5
Boards per game: 4.0
Assists per game: 2.3
PER: 30.8


KARL MALONE FINALS STATS
Points per game: 25.0
Boards per game: 10.5
Assists per game: 3.8
PER: 26.8