Retro Player of the Year Project

[sp6r=underrated]

If you'll excuse me I have to watch a cinematic masterpiece. I doubt most of you philistines can enjoy artwork of this caliber. It is a gritty documentary about the horror of war. It centers on a German soldier suffering from PTSD.

It is called Commando.

[Doctor MJ]

Ugh, MOV has been proven to be a better predictor of team quality than W/L. Disregarding point differential in evaluating team performance is like disregarding scoring efficiency when evaluating individual scoring. The Heat have barely above median SRS for NBA champions in since the late 80s expansion. They didn't even reach the peak of the Shaq/Kobe lakers or Duncan Spurs let alone come close to the bulls. The gap between their PD and the GOAT caliber clubs is like the individual stats gap between the best seasons of Lebron and Kobe.

It's not about using X or Y. It's about using X, Y, and a whole bunch of other things. I wasn't ignoring MOV because I'm a slave to W-L, I was factoring in the fact that Miami showed clear signs of being able to ratchet up their performance as needed.

Do yourself a big favor and click on this link:

Team Clutch Performance Sorted by how they outperformed opponents

Miami was completely off the charts compared to everyone else.

When you factor in this, the 27 game streak, HOW they played in the 27 game streak where they came from behind at will, and the fact that the team was never in any major danger of losing HCA, it becomes ridiculous to say another team is better simply based on MOV.

Disregarding that data is like when the Kobe fans in 06 started disregarding all of the advanced stats that showed Jordan was conclusively better.

I'll repeat: It's not disregarding data, it's using that data along with a host of other measures. We're way ahead of you dude.

Coasting = I think the team is better than their performance so I'll disregard the data that I don't like. The Heat's best player is Lebron James who is one of the superstars who goes all out every game.It is one of his greatest virtues that like MJ he can muster full effort for those January games against the bucks. This coasting crap is just that crap. There is maybe one recent NBA champion that you can make a decent case coasted on a regular basis and that is the Shaq lakers who were led by the laziest ATG in history.

Don't make of assuming that I'm a LeBron homer and this is coloring all of my thoughts. I'm an Angeleno Laker fan (born and raised) who no one believes is a Laker fan because I'm as quick to criticize my team's stars as any other star.

Re: goes all out every game. Really?

LeBron's playing 35 MPG right now. Do you that's what he'd do if the season were on the line?

LeBron in the clutch sees his volume shooting go way up and puts his body on the line. If he were going all out all the time, why would he be doing this from the start?

It's not about laziness. Shaq was lazy so of course he coasted. LeBron coasts to an extent because it's simply wise. Why on earth would you give 100% all the time to try to beat every opponent in every game by as much as possible when the only time you really need to be the best is in the playoffs?

As to the Wade injury, many NBA champions have superstars playing injured (10 Kobe [knee], 05 Duncan [ankle]). Hell, their opposition wasn't healthy in the post-season. The bulls were a total mash unit and Parker hurt his hamstring in the finals.

Now you're just being petulant.

The fact that Player X still did great with Injury Y has nothing to do with the fact that Wade looked visibly awful the entire playoffs long after he had looked like his prime self earlier.

Look, you have to admit that there are injuries that actually do cause players to play worse. Why on earth would you simply refuse to believe to believe that Wade had one of those? Want to knock Wade for not being tougher? Fine, whatever, but we were wondering what the hell was wrong with Wade long before the Indiana series occurred and Miami actually struggled.

As to the Thunder we'll never know because their second best player missed the entire PS.

Oh, so OKC gets to use injuries as an explanation for playing worse but Miami doesn't?

The whole reason you feel confident that the 27 game streak wasn't representative of the team's true capabilities is what you saw in the playoffs, during which Wade was hurt.

Nope and I have the post that prove it.

May 7. Right G1 ECSF

It's pretty clear that this season is only going to be a GOAT contender for LeBron if he wins a title.

Losing to Chicago though would be more shocking than just that though certainly. It's hard to even imagine how it could happen.

Chicago is so banged up they don't have the offensive firepower to do it but this Heat team has a real flaw: they are weak on the boards and if they were to win a title they would probably be the weakest rebounding team to do since the 95 rockets. The Heat are vulnerable on the boards and that is the reason their point differential doesn't match their aura of an ATG best in history team that so many have given them.

Chicago does have the front-court to get those offensive boards unfortunately they lack enough true scorers to win the series.

Chicago is so banged up they don't have the offensive firepower to do it but this Heat team has a real flaw: they are weak on the boards and if they were to win a title they would probably be the weakest rebounding team to do since the 95 rockets. The Heat are vulnerable on the boards and that is the reason their point differential doesn't match their aura of an ATG best in history team that so many have given them.

Chicago does have the front-court to get those offensive boards unfortunately they lack enough true scorers to win the series.

I agree with you that Miami is weak on the boards but the point differential comment is just weird. Their aura exists because of how they tore through the second half of the season which left people thinking 1) the first half was them coasting, and 2) the Heat were so dominant when push came to shove that they could take the first half off.

First, saying a team is weak on the boards almost entirely refutes the idea that a team is best in history quality.

Second, During their 27 game win streak their avg MOv was 11.92.

Many teams, which aren't regarded as ATG teams had 27 game stretches were they outscored their opponents by similar margins. The 90 Pistons had a 27 game stretch were they went 25-2 and won by 11.56. Were they an ATG team?

Point differential as an indicator of team quality is far more proven than plus/minus as an indicator of individual quality. The case for point differential is as strong as the case for cigarettes causing lung cancer while the case for plus/minus is only slightly superior to the case that organic food being good for you. Yet for some reason on this board it is plus/minus that is taken as gospel while people constantly dismiss point differential under "oh they were coasting".

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1249294&start=30#p35718511

May 27

They have been very impressive since he joined by Miami but their record is deceptive. They have been extremely lucky in close games since he joined the club. Their point differential over this stretch is +10.98 which is nothing like the 75 win pace their record looks like.

I'm sure people are going to get outraged by calling it luck but one of the most established facts statisticians have shown in basketball and all sports is that winning close games is more luck than skill.

The Heat are playing great but their level of play is well below 48-4. You need to be winning games by an average of 15+ to be in that range.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1252175&start=15#p35896586

This was right after G1 of the ECF when Miami was 9-1 and I was hammering MOV.

This isn't hindsight I was pounding away on MOV through March, April and May that Miami wasn't a GOAT team. I can dig up more old posts if need be.

I was right.

I don't really see how this "proves" the precise thing we were debating, but it is relevant.

Also relevant that you didn't include my prior response to you from that thread where I apparently already explained to you about Miami's insane dominance in the clutch as you were left unimpressed at the raw MOV of Miami's 27 game streak:

As I mentioned, one of the most noteworthy trends of the Heat's run was how they coasted in the first half.

Consider: During that 27 game run the Heat's average 4th quarter edge was +5.6. Multiplied over 4 quarters, that the equivalent of an edge +22, which is pretty damn noteworthy.

Is it more noteworthy than the '90 Pistons? I don't know. More importantly though:

Is it something we can say was NOT much affected by luck? Obviously if this had more to do with luck than anything else that answers all questions. If it wasn't luck based, then isn't it a pretty huge deal when you can win 27 in a row while clearly not giving max effort the entire time?

Re: Point differential more proven that +/-. That's an odd statement. I'm not ignoring point differential here because I don't look at it, I"m giving a specific reason why it's misleading in this case. I make specific cases why an individual's +/- is pretty off pretty often too.

Re: Can a team be GOAT if they are weak on the boards? See now that's a good question. The Heat feel like a team that might be GOAT-effective built around their contemporaries but might have had to go in a very different direction in another era. It's worth asking what we should think about that if that's true.

We can't ask that though without pointing out how what suicide it would be to try to run many old strategies in the modern NBA. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1249294&start=30#p35718511]

You didn't respond to this then, and you didn't think to respond to it right now, but now that it's all drug back out again, I hope you will. Of course I also hope you're done calling me a homer for a guy who plays for the wrong coast, and implying my desperate fear of the truth leads me to make up some data and ignore other data. You'd be much better served to assume I'm a smart guy who understands all of this stuff but for some reason has a different opinion than you on the matter.

[sp6r=underrated]

It's not about using X or Y. It's about using X, Y, and a whole bunch of other things. I wasn't ignoring MOV because I'm a slave to W-L, I was factoring in the fact that Miami showed clear signs of being able to ratchet up their performance as needed.

Do yourself a big favor and click on this link:

Team Clutch Performance Sorted by how they outperformed opponents

Interesting information but I really don't think it proves anything

Miami
2014: 9th (admittedly super tiny sample size)
2013: 1st (godlike)
2012: 8th
2011: 10th

Also scanning these stats it seems like teams are jumping in and out on the list all over the place every year and the top teams do well (which is what you would expect).

Even more interesting is the Heat's performance in the PS. If I understand your theory correct you think the Heat coast but when it gets serious they can turn it on with ease. Flip the lightswitch as the cliche goes. If this were true we would expect the Heat's PS performance to mimic it.

Didn't happen
RS: 176 Min, 33 net rating
PS: 51 Min, -8.2 net rating

The sample size while small is still about 28% of the RS total. If you are right that the clutch performance is a repeatable skill rather than simple luck we should see the stats transition over. Of course nothing of the like occurred. They look horrendous in the clutch over these minutes.

I think this is a random luck. I'm sure you'll bring up the Wade injury but that really can't explain that massive of a collapse unless you think he did all of the heavy lifting in the clutch.

So
When you factor in this, the 27 game streak, HOW they played in the 27 game streak where they came from behind at will, and the fact that the team was never in any major danger of losing HCA, it becomes ridiculous to say another team is better simply based on MOV.

not at all. Clutch play is mostly luck. Furthermore, points in the 4th quarter count exactly the same as points scored in the 1st quarter.

I'll repeat: It's not disregarding data, it's using that data along with a host of other measures. We're way ahead of you dude.

You're really not. You are reading way too much into 176 minutes of data. That isn't even 4 games.

Coasting = I think the team is better than their performance so I'll disregard the data that I don't like. The Heat's best player is Lebron James who is one of the superstars who goes all out every game.It is one of his greatest virtues that like MJ he can muster full effort for those January games against the bucks. This coasting crap is just that crap. There is maybe one recent NBA champion that you can make a decent case coasted on a regular basis and that is the Shaq lakers who were led by the laziest ATG in history.

Don't make of assuming that I'm a LeBron homer and this is coloring all of my thoughts. I'm an Angeleno Laker fan (born and raised) who no one believes is a Laker fan because I'm as quick to criticize my team's stars as any other star.

I didn't call you a homer and if I gave that impression I apologize. I've read your posts over the years and know where your loyalties lie.

Rather I am stating their are unconscious biases that affect all of us. Lebron is a GOAT caliber player. I've taking heat before for saying he may end up as the GOAT from MJ fans. All intelligent observers acknowledge he is playing at a GOAT caliber level. He also plays with another ATG in Dwyane Wade plus an all-star in Bosh with good role players too boot.

On paper that looks like it should lead to GOAT caliber results. They've even won two titles. It is in our recent memory that it did lead to a GOAT level team (90s bulls).

I think people are looking less critically at their results than they would say if it was a team with the roster like the 88-90 Pistons. They had a very similar run and indeed knocked out the 88 Celtics who were a monster on paper, crushed the 89 playoffs and won a tough second title. No one talks about them as the GOAT (correctly). I think the difference between their historic reputation and what the Heat's will be mainly comes down to superstar play unconsciously rubbing off on the team's reputation.

Re: goes all out every game. Really?

LeBron's playing 35 MPG right now. Do you that's what he'd do if the season were on the line?

LeBron in the clutch sees his volume shooting go way up and puts his body on the line. If he were going all out all the time, why would he be doing this from the start?

Look at Lebron's month by month stats. This is a dude who month by month is kicking ass. You don't win 4 MVPs in 5 years if you coast in the RS.

As to why he doesn't dominate shooting that much it would probably kill team ball movement if you did over 48 minutes because other players would lose motivation.

The MP dropoff is nothing substantial compared to other superstars.

Just as a comparison
Lebron
11: 6 min
12: 5 min
13: 3 min

Shaq
00: 3 min
01: 2 min
02: 5 min

Duncan
03: 4 min
04: 4 min
05: 4 min

Jordan
91: 4 min
92: 3 min
93: 2 min

I don't see any big minutes gap such that you can argue Lebron was "coasting."

It's not about laziness. Shaq was lazy so of course he coasted. LeBron coasts to an extent because it's simply wise. Why on earth would you give 100% all the time to try to beat every opponent in every game by as much as possible when the only time you really need to be the best is in the playoffs?

hmm, that sounds like every other superstar. He's nothing like an outlier like Shaq were you could see coasting really dragging down team performance in a substantial manner.

As to the Wade injury, many NBA champions have superstars playing injured (10 Kobe [knee], 05 Duncan [ankle]). Hell, their opposition wasn't healthy in the post-season. The bulls were a total mash unit and Parker hurt his hamstring in the finals.

Now you're just being petulant.

you sound like my ex from college who actually did call me a petulant, manipulative dork when she dumped me. Are you going to keep my PS2 too when this conversation ends? *

The fact that Player X still did great with Injury Y has nothing to do with the fact that Wade looked visibly awful the entire playoffs long after he had looked like his prime self earlier.

Look, you have to admit that there are injuries that actually do cause players to play worse. Why on earth would you simply refuse to believe to believe that Wade had one of those? Want to knock Wade for not being tougher? Fine, whatever, but we were wondering what the hell was wrong with Wade long before the Indiana series occurred and Miami actually struggled.

I don't deny injuries exist. I simply don't see the 13 Wade as the greatest injury of all time such that I'm asterisking everything that happened in the PS.

As to the Thunder we'll never know because their second best player missed the entire PS.

Oh, so OKC gets to use injuries as an explanation for playing worse but Miami doesn't?

Is this mild hypocrisy? Yes. Of course, there is a huge difference between someone playing below their RS level and missing the entire PS unless you actually think Wade was hurting the Heat. Do you think so?

The whole reason you feel confident that the 27 game streak wasn't representative of the team's true capabilities is what you saw in the playoffs, during which Wade was hurt.

Nope and I have the post that prove it.

May 7. Right G1 ECSF

Chicago is so banged up they don't have the offensive firepower to do it but this Heat team has a real flaw: they are weak on the boards and if they were to win a title they would probably be the weakest rebounding team to do since the 95 rockets. The Heat are vulnerable on the boards and that is the reason their point differential doesn't match their aura of an ATG best in history team that so many have given them.

Chicago does have the front-court to get those offensive boards unfortunately they lack enough true scorers to win the series.

I agree with you that Miami is weak on the boards but the point differential comment is just weird. Their aura exists because of how they tore through the second half of the season which left people thinking 1) the first half was them coasting, and 2) the Heat were so dominant when push came to shove that they could take the first half off.

First, saying a team is weak on the boards almost entirely refutes the idea that a team is best in history quality.

Second, During their 27 game win streak their avg MOv was 11.92.

Many teams, which aren't regarded as ATG teams had 27 game stretches were they outscored their opponents by similar margins. The 90 Pistons had a 27 game stretch were they went 25-2 and won by 11.56. Were they an ATG team?

Point differential as an indicator of team quality is far more proven than plus/minus as an indicator of individual quality. The case for point differential is as strong as the case for cigarettes causing lung cancer while the case for plus/minus is only slightly superior to the case that organic food being good for you. Yet for some reason on this board it is plus/minus that is taken as gospel while people constantly dismiss point differential under "oh they were coasting".

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1249294&start=30#p35718511

May 27

They have been very impressive since he joined by Miami but their record is deceptive. They have been extremely lucky in close games since he joined the club. Their point differential over this stretch is +10.98 which is nothing like the 75 win pace their record looks like.

I'm sure people are going to get outraged by calling it luck but one of the most established facts statisticians have shown in basketball and all sports is that winning close games is more luck than skill.

The Heat are playing great but their level of play is well below 48-4. You need to be winning games by an average of 15+ to be in that range.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1252175&start=15#p35896586

This was right after G1 of the ECF when Miami was 9-1 and I was hammering MOV.

This isn't hindsight I was pounding away on MOV through March, April and May that Miami wasn't a GOAT team. I can dig up more old posts if need be.

I was right.

I don't really see how this "proves" the precise thing we were debating, but it is relevant.

I brought this up because you were accusing me of basing my opinion of the 13 Heat on the PS. Right or wrong, these posts clearly establish I wasn't on board with them being a GOAT even when they were rolling.

Also relevant that you didn't include my prior response to you from that thread where I apparently already explained to you about Miami's insane dominance in the clutch as you were left unimpressed at the raw MOV of Miami's 27 game streak:

As before I brought this up on to re-litigate this battle but rather to refute the accusation that my denial of the Heat from the GOAT Pantheon was rooted in PS performance.

As I mentioned, one of the most noteworthy trends of the Heat's run was how they coasted in the first half.

Consider: During that 27 game run the Heat's average 4th quarter edge was +5.6. Multiplied over 4 quarters, that the equivalent of an edge +22, which is pretty damn noteworthy.

Is it more noteworthy than the '90 Pistons? I don't know. More importantly though:

Is it something we can say was NOT much affected by luck? Obviously if this had more to do with luck than anything else that answers all questions. If it wasn't luck based, then isn't it a pretty huge deal when you can win 27 in a row while clearly not giving max effort the entire time?

Re: Point differential more proven that +/-. That's an odd statement. I'm not ignoring point differential here because I don't look at it, I"m giving a specific reason why it's misleading in this case. I make specific cases why an individual's +/- is pretty off pretty often too.

Re: Can a team be GOAT if they are weak on the boards? See now that's a good question. The Heat feel like a team that might be GOAT-effective built around their contemporaries but might have had to go in a very different direction in another era. It's worth asking what we should think about that if that's true.

We can't ask that though without pointing out how what suicide it would be to try to run many old strategies in the modern NBA. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1249294&start=30#p35718511]

You didn't respond to this then, and you didn't think to respond to it right now, but now that it's all drug back out again, I hope you will. . . You'd be much better served to assume I'm a smart guy who understands all of this stuff but for some reason has a different opinion than you on the matter.

I didn't see much to respond to then but I'll give it now. As I said in the other Lebron thread, I don't think the Heat are a GOAT team so I just reject 100% your claim that they are "GOAT-effective. I already discussed above that I think you're focus on clutch play (less than 4 games worth of minutes) isn't substantial enough to disregard point differential.

Of course I also hope you're done calling me a homer for a guy who plays for the wrong coast, and implying my desperate fear of the truth leads me to make up some data and ignore other data.

Discussed above but I'll repeat myself, I didn't call you a homer.

* I want my PS2 back. It's been a decade but that was mine.

Apologies for any formatting error. I did my best making sure I didn't attribute your words to mine or vice versa.

[sp6r=underrated]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Commando is awesome. Let off some steam Bennett. Don't disturb my friend he's dead tired and of course "right, WRONG."

[Doctor MJ]

Interesting information but I really don't think it proves anything

Miami
2014: 9th (admittedly super tiny sample size)
2013: 1st (godlike)
2012: 8th
2011: 10th

Also scanning these stats it seems like teams are jumping in and out on the list all over the place every year and the top teams do well (which is what you would expect).

Even more interesting is the Heat's performance in the PS. If I understand your theory correct you think the Heat coast but when it gets serious they can turn it on with ease. Flip the lightswitch as the cliche goes. If this were true we would expect the Heat's PS performance to mimic it.

Didn't happen
RS: 176 Min, 33 net rating
PS: 51 Min, -8.2 net rating

The sample size while small is still about 28% of the RS total. If you are right that the clutch performance is a repeatable skill rather than simple luck we should see the stats transition over. Of course nothing of the like occurred. They look horrendous in the clutch over these minutes.

I think this is a random luck. I'm sure you'll bring up the Wade injury but that really can't explain that massive of a collapse unless you think he did all of the heavy lifting in the clutch.

Okay, point by point here:

-It makes no sense for you to be going back to earlier Heat teams to compared the '13 Heat to them on this. You're talking to someone who has been quite clear in believing that the team went through a massive transformations, and who wasn't arguing for the LeBron of prior Heat seasons as a possible GOAT year. Thus the improvement you see is exactly what I would tell you you'd see.

Let me also note that the story has been around longer than that. Because while people were going around calling LeBron non-clutch back in his Cleveland days, his actual clutch success was tremendous. But when he came to Miami, it all fell apart. The team clearly didn't know how to play together, and it was stunning they almost won the title any way.

-But what about the playoffs? If this stat is so indicative of how good a team really is, should that not carry through into the playoffs?

Okay, hands down: Great point. Now I can bring up the injuries, etc, but I certainly agree that if a team is to prove itself a true GOAT they need to continue the domination to some degree in the playoffs.

Additionally, here I am bringing up Cleveland, but they didn't win titles. Clearly while there's some clear increase intensity in regular season clutch that should make it be taken seriously, it cannot be taken as the end all be all. It's worth asking though what exactly we think the difference is. It hardly seems to me to make sense to ignore the most intense part of the regular season in favor of championing a stat which favors teams who run up the score (and which other teams aren't going to try to do as much.)

I would say that the answer is that it's not that the playoffs are more intense than clutch regular season ball, it's that coaches are better able to adapt, and that sometimes you hit a bad matchup or a team that's just hot.

So in the case of Cleveland, I do believe that their strategy didn't fair as well in the playoffs. People overrate how bad it was for a variety of reasons, but unipolar teams have limitations.

What the jury is still out on for me, is whether this Heat team at their best is truly as vulnerable.

-Small sample size, but that shouldn't matter if it's not luck. Doesn't work like that. There's always luck, but that doesn't mean you ignore the data. You just more stock in that which deserves more stock.

-Can't say Wade affected clutch unless he WAS the clutch. That doesn't make any sense. Of course he had an effect on the clutch. Both in his direct action and the threat of his action. Should he be enough to turn a negative clutch team into something insane? No, but obviously there's low sample size variance and there's strong competition too.

So
When you factor in this, the 27 game streak, HOW they played in the 27 game streak where they came from behind at will, and the fact that the team was never in any major danger of losing HCA, it becomes ridiculous to say another team is better simply based on MOV.

not at all. Clutch play is mostly luck. Furthermore, points in the 4th quarter count exactly the same as points scored in the 1st quarter.

You think like a fundamentalist. It's not all black & white. It's amazing to me that you accused people of ignoring good data when you are so clearly prone to doing that yourself.

I fully recognize that there is luck involved in the clutch, but you need to recognize that teams very strategy and intensity as the game goes along.

You also need to recognize that when you champion all-game stats while calling clutch stats luck, you aren't treating all quarters the same, you're actually favoring the earlier times in the game. That actually is an idea with some merit. If what we saw was that teams who take a big early lead get to drastically control the flow of the game (as in football and soccer), one could really make that case.

But it's visibly quite clear that players ratchet up their intensity in the clutch. It's an odd meta thing: While in theory every minute of the game is just as valuable, if teams show trends of being able to make big runs by spending bursts of energy, then the most important part of the game is whenever they tend to use that energy, and they do that in the clutch.

Also let's note: The big hype saying the clutch was far more random than people though had truth to it, but we've moved beyond that now. What we were seeing was that some players known for phenomenal clutch didn't actually show major correlation with team clutch success. We've seen enough now though that it's clear that some teams do a lot better than others in the clutch, and it's not like the reasons leave everyone scratch their heads.

In '11, when the Heatles were just starting to play together, and the two big stars weren't used to using each other optimally, Miami often looked hesitant and confused with the pressure at its highest, and the data bore that out. Since then, the team has been looking better and better, with improving flow and decisiveness, and the data again bears that out.

Now, what about this year? They aren't #1 in the clutch right now. What does it mean? I don't know yet. If the trend continues until the end, then clearly this is a team with limitations well below what we'd hope to see from such a collection of stars.

I'll repeat: It's not disregarding data, it's using that data along with a host of other measures. We're way ahead of you dude.

You're really not. You are reading way too much into 176 minutes of data. That isn't even 4 games.

If you think that people here are using W-L as their bible, then you don't know the level of the room, and so the "room" is way ahead of your assumptions about it.

Re: Not even 4 games. All I'm doing is pointing out one more factor that one would be foolish to ignore, while talking with someone who accused people around here of ignoring data.

You keep making the mistake of thinking that I believe in some holy grail of a stat. I don't. You though, appear to do just that. If that's not the case, you'd be well served to stretch your legs and show some nuance.

I didn't call you a homer and if I gave that impression I apologize. I've read your posts over the years and know where your loyalties lie.

Appreciate that.

sp6r I gotta be honest. I've been reading your posts for years and always thought you a pretty reasonable poster, but in more recent times you just seem so extreme in your reactions. I don't know what to make of it.

Rather I am stating their are unconscious biases that affect all of us. Lebron is a GOAT caliber player. I've taking heat before for saying he may end up as the GOAT from MJ fans. All intelligent observers acknowledge he is playing at a GOAT caliber level. He also plays with another ATG in Dwyane Wade plus an all-star in Bosh with good role players too boot.

On paper that looks like it should lead to GOAT caliber results. They've even won two titles. It is in our recent memory that it did lead to a GOAT level team (90s bulls).

I think people are looking less critically at their results than they would say if it was a team with the roster like the 88-90 Pistons. They had a very similar run and indeed knocked out the 88 Celtics who were a monster on paper, crushed the 89 playoffs and won a tough second title. No one talks about them as the GOAT (correctly). I think the difference between their historic reputation and what the Heat's will be mainly comes down to superstar play unconsciously rubbing off on the team's reputation.

Some great thoughts here. I think you're right.

Just keep in mind that I'm not saying GOAT yet, I just see glimmers. I probably wouldn't see those glimmers as glimmers if it were a more blue collar team, but in either case, if something insane truly blooms, it will be salient.

Look at Lebron's month by month stats. This is a dude who month by month is kicking ass. You don't win 4 MVPs in 5 years if you coast in the RS.

I'm not saying everyone else was killing themselves in the regular season while LeBron coasted, I'm saying every gives something less than 110%. They are all pacing themselves. They do it over the course of the season, and they do it over the course of each game.

Although to be fair with the inevitable Jordan comparison, I think what that team did in '96 and in '97 to a lesser degree is a testament to just how intense the man was. Not that he never coasted, but in those years, that team was as dialed in all season-long as you can get.

I also don't think there's any doubt that when it comes to intensity and focus, Jordan was on another level than Lebron. LeBron deserves respect for his work ethic, but part of the charm of his game is a mental side that leaves him a bit more abstract than Jordan.

As to why he doesn't dominate shooting that much it would probably kill team ball movement if you did over 48 minutes because other players would lose motivation.

That's part of it too, but there's no denying that throwing yourself into the melee by the rim hurts and increases the risk of injury. It's very clear that players brave this danger more in the time span we call "the clutch" relative to other times.

The MP dropoff is nothing substantial compared to other superstars.

That's the point. What I'm describing is how basketball is played in the NBA, not something pertaining only to LeBron. The fact that it's "only a few minutes" is irrelevant because it's so consistent and the motivation is so clear cut.

hmm, that sounds like every other superstar. He's nothing like an outlier like Shaq were you could see coasting really dragging down team performance in a substantial manner.

It is like other stars, and if it weren't a substantial difference then the data would show that by showing no such consistent trend.

you sound like my ex from college who actually did call me a petulant, manipulative dork when she dumped me. Are you going to keep my PS2 too when this conversation ends? *

And 1.

I don't deny injuries exist. I simply don't see the 13 Wade as the greatest injury of all time such that I'm asterisking everything that happened in the PS.

But he played BAAAAD. We saw that. We know what he's capable of. To some extent, what does it matter why? Clearly if Wade had played like that in the point of the year where we got all excited we wouldn't have gotten all excited.

Oh, so OKC gets to use injuries as an explanation for playing worse but Miami doesn't?

Is this mild hypocrisy? Yes. Of course, there is a huge difference between someone playing below their RS level and missing the entire PS unless you actually think Wade was hurting the Heat. Do you think so?

I think that those painting in broad strokes tend to look like hypocrites when they simply have models to coarse to deal with all the eventualities.

I don't think you should be looking for a reason to ignore Wade's poor performance when judging the Heat, I think you should factor it in for what it is and that if you aren't sure what it is, then you should be careful in judging the Heat too quickly.

I don't really see how this "proves" the precise thing we were debating, but it is relevant.

I brought this up because you were accusing me of basing my opinion of the 13 Heat on the PS. Right or wrong, these posts clearly establish I wasn't on board with them being a GOAT even when they were rolling.

Fair enough.

Note that my wording was about your current confidence which you surely would not have if the playoffs had gone differently.

Now, you believe you essentially "called your shot" ahead of time and so that's the proof you need. You surely though didn't call that Wade would fall apart for the playoffs, and that Miami would still end up winning the title despite this.

You undoubtedly think that that's an "excuse", that one can't ever really prove much if one is going to focus on such details, but I suppose that's the point. You say you' were right, all I'm saying is that the jury is still out. Well that and, that I think you overrate your abilities and everyone else's if you think that looking at the right stat made all of this obvious before it happened.

Also relevant that you didn't include my prior response to you from that thread where I apparently already explained to you about Miami's insane dominance in the clutch as you were left unimpressed at the raw MOV of Miami's 27 game streak:

As before I brought this up on to re-litigate this battle but rather to refute the accusation that my denial of the Heat from the GOAT Pantheon was rooted in PS performance.

Right but now I realize we never "litigated" it the first time around. You brought stuff up, I responded, you went away, and now you're bringing it up again. That's where the objection comes in.

As I mentioned, one of the most noteworthy trends of the Heat's run was how they coasted in the first half.

Consider: During that 27 game run the Heat's average 4th quarter edge was +5.6. Multiplied over 4 quarters, that the equivalent of an edge +22, which is pretty damn noteworthy.

Is it more noteworthy than the '90 Pistons? I don't know. More importantly though:

Is it something we can say was NOT much affected by luck? Obviously if this had more to do with luck than anything else that answers all questions. If it wasn't luck based, then isn't it a pretty huge deal when you can win 27 in a row while clearly not giving max effort the entire time?

Re: Point differential more proven that +/-. That's an odd statement. I'm not ignoring point differential here because I don't look at it, I"m giving a specific reason why it's misleading in this case. I make specific cases why an individual's +/- is pretty off pretty often too.

Re: Can a team be GOAT if they are weak on the boards? See now that's a good question. The Heat feel like a team that might be GOAT-effective built around their contemporaries but might have had to go in a very different direction in another era. It's worth asking what we should think about that if that's true.

We can't ask that though without pointing out how what suicide it would be to try to run many old strategies in the modern NBA. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1249294&start=30#p35718511]

You didn't respond to this then, and you didn't think to respond to it right now, but now that it's all drug back out again, I hope you will. . . You'd be much better served to assume I'm a smart guy who understands all of this stuff but for some reason has a different opinion than you on the matter.

I didn't see much to respond to then but I'll give it now. As I said in the other Lebron thread, I don't think the Heat are a GOAT team so I just reject 100% your claim that they are "GOAT-effective. I already discussed above that I think you're focus on clutch play (less than 4 games worth of minutes) isn't substantial enough to disregard point differential.

Okay. I understand the general principle here, but I chafe when you insist on finding a way to find a 27 game win streak not so impressive because they didn't win each game by enough points and you refuse to acknowledge that this means you're essentially judging a team's performance based on first halves where the team clearly looks lackadaisical.

And again: I'm not saying 27 wins in a row is enough to call a team GOAT, but for anyone to look at a streak like that and say "ah, clearly not GOAT" just seems crazy to me.

[therealbig3]

Is it too early for some preliminary debate so far?

If I had to put it in order this season so far, I'd go:

1. Durant
2. LeBron
3. Curry
4. Melo
5. Griffin

Howard, Love, Harden, LMA, and Paul would probably round out my top 10 (not in order). George, Dirk, Dragic, and Davis warrant some consideration too imo. Paul can jump to as high as 3 as long as he finishes the year strong, and then plays well in the playoffs without any injuries. Only reason he's not in my top 5 right now is because of the missed games. Playoffs obviously matter the most though, so if he's his typical dominant self come playoff time, then he'd have to make the top 5.

[Gregoire]

My topo-5 2014 so far:

1.Durant
2.Lebron
3. Love
4.Howard
5.Melo

[RSCD3_]

Is it too early for some preliminary debate so far?

If I had to put it in order this season so far, I'd go:

1. Durant
2. LeBron
3. Curry
4. Melo
5. Griffin

Howard, Love, Harden, LMA, and Paul would probably round out my top 10 (not in order). George, Dirk, Dragic, and Davis warrant some consideration too imo. Paul can jump to as high as 3 as long as he finishes the year strong, and then plays well in the playoffs without any injuries. Only reason he's not in my top 5 right now is because of the missed games. Playoffs obviously matter the most though, so if he's his typical dominant self come playoff time, then he'd have to make the top 5.

My topo-5 2014 so far:

1.Durant
2.Lebron
3. Love
4.Howard
5.Melo

How much do you gentlemen value playoffs?

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[Quotatious]

If I had to put it in order this season so far, I'd go:

1. Durant
2. LeBron
3. Curry
4. Melo
5. Griffin

Could you explain why do you have Curry and Melo so high? Not saying that it's wrong - I'm just curious about your methodology.

[ardee]

This is an extremely competitive season.

Durant and LeBron obviously top two.

After that Love, Griffin, Melo, Curry, Paul and Davis all in contention for the next three spots.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Quotatious]

This is an extremely competitive season.

Durant and LeBron obviously top two.

After that Love, Griffin, Melo, Curry, Paul and Davis all in contention for the next three spots.

Yeah, definitely way better than the previous season in terms of the elite talent. It's even more impressive when you look at the top 15:

LeBron
Durant
CP3
Dwight
Melo
Curry
Harden
Wade
Griffin
Love
Aldridge
Dirk
Davis
George
Dragic

This list isn't in order, so it doesn't reflect my opinion, just listed players as they came to my mind.

Then you have guys like Noah, Lillard, Duncan, Bosh, Wall, Conley, Westbrook, Parker, Lawson, Al Jefferson etc. in the top 20-25, many of them probably having a case for the top 15.

Pretty awesome, and I doubt there were more than three seasons since 2000 with better talent. Just a few superstars, but insane amount of All-Star/borderline All-Star talent.

[ronnymac2]

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
...Cluster of great seasons...

I'd probably go with Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry for the next two spots. Fifth is tough.

Kevin Durant is my MVP thus far. LeBron James is still clearly the superior basketball player though.

I do weigh playoffs heavily.

[CBA]

This is an extremely competitive season.

Durant and LeBron obviously top two.

After that Love, Griffin, Melo, Curry, Paul and Davis all in contention for the next three spots.

Yeah, definitely way better than the previous season in terms of the elite talent. It's even more impressive when you look at the top 15:

LeBron
Durant
CP3
Dwight
Melo
Curry
Harden
Wade
Griffin
Love
Aldridge
Dirk
Davis
George
Dragic

This list isn't in order, so it doesn't reflect my opinion, just listed players as they came to my mind.

Then you have guys like Noah, Lillard, Duncan, Bosh, Wall, Conley, Westbrook, Parker, Lawson, Al Jefferson etc. in the top 20-25, many of them probably having a case for the top 15.

Pretty awesome, and I doubt there were more than three seasons since 2000 with better talent. Just a few superstars, but insane amount of All-Star/borderline All-Star talent.

I guess it doesn't bode well for Kyle Lowry's chances this year when guys like Al Jefferson are being mentioned over him. Seriously, is it a Raptor thing?

[Quotatious]

I guess it doesn't bode well for Kyle Lowry's chances this year when guys like Al Jefferson are being mentioned over him. Seriously, is it a Raptor thing?

I have no problem mentioning Lowry here - he's certainly deserving to be mentioned with guys like Ty Lawson, or Kyrie Irving (another notable omission).

[CBA]

Eh, I'd say he belongs more with that first group you mentioned, along with Noah, than with players like Kyrie and Lawson. Toronto is actually a +3 SRS team at this point, a bit higher than Dallas and Phoenix, with Lowry being its best player without question. And it's not like there's a bevy of talent on that squad.

I wonder if this year deserves a Top 10 rather than a Top 5.

[RSCD3_]

After Durant and LeBron in some order ( playoffs should probably help LeBron's case ) in a 1-2 order

The 3-5 spots look to be very deep among curry and harden and melo along with your superstar bigs/pfs

[HeartBreakKid]

I'm putting Durant, James, Curry and CP3 I think.

The last spot depends on the playoffs for the most part. Griffin, Harden and Howard will probably battle it out via playoffs. Not sure if Love can make it, would depend if everyone else sucked in the post season.

[Joao Saraiva]

JordanBulls gets a vote? Not meant to take hit on you JordanBulls but you're on of the most biased posters arround RealGM...

Hope you can at least make good arguments to support your decisions, but I believe if I read them I wouldn't be surprised in a positive way.

Hope I'm wrong.

[Joao Saraiva]

This is an extremely competitive season.

Durant and LeBron obviously top two.

After that Love, Griffin, Melo, Curry, Paul and Davis all in contention for the next three spots.

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I don't usually agree with evaluating individual performance by team achievments but at some Melo not even making the playoffs with the Knicks has to be hit on him. I'm sorry but getting to the East low seeds should be mandatory to making top 5 in a season...

[semi-sentient]

Sorry for the delay.

http://rpoy.dolem.com has been updated with this years voting results.