Retro Player of the Year Project

[Doctor MJ]

Huh? Whether Lebron is coasting or not, he's still the best player this year based on actual impact. In 2010 I killed him for coasting(or whatever he was doing) in that Boston series.

When did "You judge them based on their toughest challenges" become the criteria, because it sure wasn't the way we were doing things previously. And really, what challenges has Wade had to face this year since he can just coast and allow Lebron to carry things.

You're basically saying we should ignore Wade's lesser impact because he 'coasted", and to wait for tougher challenges. I'm sorry, but guys like Melo have been facing tough challenges all season long.

It's true that LeBron's been the best even with the coasting. Incredibly scary. If you think it was a lock LeBron was having the highest impact all year long though you're silly. LeBron had to overtake Durant because of the early season coasting. Circling back then, had LeBron not passed Durant during the regular season and yet clearly outplayed Durant when he really needed to (like, say, the Finals) is there a soul alive who would put Duran at #1 on their ballot here?

Re: LeBron "coasting or whatever" against 2010 Celtics. Definitely nothing like coasting there. That's a very different conversation.

Re: criteria. As the project runner, I've never forced you to have this criteria and I still won't. I've very clearly had it though from the time we did the RPOY and really so did everyone to some degree. This is why Jordan won POY so easily year after year. It's not that people were saying the MVP voters were necessarily wrong, we were just saying that clearly Jordan's playoff performance answered all doubts.

Re: what challenges has Wade faced this year? I don't understand why this is so hard for me to get across to you.

You wouldn't judge an MMA fighter based on the moves he uses when playing with his kids, nor should you judge the Heat based on what they do against the Bucks. It's as simple as that.

Re: Melo's had to do more. Right it comes down to this for you. I'm not going to stop you from voting this way. I'll try to put it another way.

Say we have Player A & Player B & LeBron.

LeBron & Player A are doing amazing things together that there's no reason to think that LeBron & Player B would do this year.

Player B is doing some very nice things as the star of his team, but they pale in comparison to what Player A has done in those situations.

If Player A is better in both circumstances, why would you ever rate Player B ahead of him?

I think it would be good if you answered this for yourself even if you think that's not what the Wade vs Melo debate is right now.

I would imagine you think the real issue with Wade is that you're not convinced he's the player he used to be. I understand that perspective. If that's what you believe, that's what you believe. I can't say you're wrong. What I can say though is that it should come as a surprise to no one that Wade looks like he's not the player he used to be given that we all knew he was going to do some serious sacrifice in order to make it work with LeBron. I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Wade couldn't carry more of the alpha load if that's what made sense for his team.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Re: what challenges has Wade faced this year? I don't understand why this is so hard for me to get across to you.

You wouldn't judge an MMA fighter based on the moves he uses when playing with his kids, nor should you judge the Heat based on what they do against the Bucks. It's as simple as that.

I view the Bucks series as a part, not the sum. Wade's regular season wasn't Top 5 in performance or impact, so the only way i could see him moving past guys like Melo, Harden, etc., is with a great PS. 14 ppg on 45% TS, certainly doesn't move him up.

And really, you can't compare the Bucks to kids. The playoffs are a progression, and Wade did much of nothing to help progress them into the 2nd round. Meanwhile, Melo is leading his team, and Harden has had a much bigger burden to carry.

Re: Melo's had to do more. Right it comes down to this for you. I'm not going to stop you from voting this way. I'll try to put it another way.

Say we have Player A & Player B & LeBron.

LeBron & Player A are doing amazing things together that there's no reason to think that LeBron & Player B would do this year.

Player B is doing some very nice things as the star of his team, but they pale in comparison to what Player A has done in those situations.

If Player A is better in both circumstances, why would you ever rate Player B ahead of him?

I think it would be good if you answered this for yourself even if you think that's not what the Wade vs Melo debate is right now.

But I don't feel player A is doing anything amazing, it's mostly Lebron that's been outstanding this year. You can't simply mention "Lebron & Player A" in a direct comparison with Player B, who is carry the load mostly on himself.

Could we plug Melo into the Heat, and they perform the same, probably not because LBJ/Melo play the same position. But impactwise, and performance wise, Melo > Wade aka Player A. You're really going to have to explain what situation Wade has performed in, that Melo pales in comparison with. I would say its the exact opposite.

As you said, Wade has coasted a lot, so I don't see what "tough challenges" he has faced.

I would imagine you think the real issue with Wade is that you're not convinced he's the player he used to be. I understand that perspective. If that's what you believe, that's what you believe. I can't say you're wrong. What I can say though is that it should come as a surprise to no one that Wade looks like he's not the player he used to be given that we all knew he was going to do some serious sacrifice in order to make it work with LeBron. I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Wade couldn't carry more of the alpha load if that's what made sense for his team.

No i still think Wade is a Top 5 talent. that's why I used the Adrian Peterson scenario. Wade put up a 1000 yard season, with a 5+ ypc, while Manning(Lebron) put up 4000 yards, 40 tds/4 ints. Lebron is Top 5, Wade ain't.

Wade "could" carry a bigger load on a different team, but...he's not. He's on the Heat, coasting, not putting up Top 5 performances, not having a Top 5 impact. Melo is doing more, Harden is doing more, Kobe was doing more, TD is doing more, even Parker is doing more. Wade's whole argument is that he's part of a team with Lebron playing at an all-time level, which really shouldn't be a factor. I have to wonder how Scottie Pippen only made it once(1997), because he fits the Player A role better than Wade.

Maybe this is why my picks have been so controversial, I base my vote on a player's actual impact/play each season, not what they "could" do. Dwight '"could" play like a Top 5 player, but he clearly didn't' this year.

[Doctor MJ]

I view the Bucks series as a part, not the sum. Wade's regular season wasn't Top 5 in performance or impact, so the only way i could see him moving past guys like Melo, Harden, etc., is with a great PS. 14 ppg on 45% TS, certainly doesn't move him up.

And really, you can't compare the Bucks to kids. The playoffs are a progression, and Wade did much of nothing to help progress them into the 2nd round. Meanwhile, Melo is leading his team, and Harden has had a much bigger burden to carry.

Certainly doesn't move him up, but we hardly need to discuss whether that would be the case. The question is whether you'll focus on this series when the rest of the playoffs are in the books.

Re: can't compare. I don't know what you mean. Obviously I'm being hyperbolic, but just as obviously the Heat probably could have destroyed the Bucks without LeBron altogether. This will not be the series on which we judge the Heat.

Re: Melo's had to do more. Right it comes down to this for you. I'm not going to stop you from voting this way. I'll try to put it another way.

Say we have Player A & Player B & LeBron.

LeBron & Player A are doing amazing things together that there's no reason to think that LeBron & Player B would do this year.

Player B is doing some very nice things as the star of his team, but they pale in comparison to what Player A has done in those situations.

If Player A is better in both circumstances, why would you ever rate Player B ahead of him?

I think it would be good if you answered this for yourself even if you think that's not what the Wade vs Melo debate is right now.

But I don't feel player A is doing anything amazing, it's mostly Lebron that's been outstanding this year. You can't simply mention "Lebron & Player A" in a direct comparison with Player B, who is carry the load mostly on himself.

Could we plug Melo into the Heat, and they perform the same, probably not because LBJ/Melo play the same position. But impactwise, and performance wise, Melo > Wade aka Player A. You're really going to have to explain what situation Wade has performed in, that Melo pales in comparison with. I would say its the exact opposite.

As you said, Wade has coasted a lot, so I don't see what "tough challenges" he has faced.

It's very difficult to make progress with you AUF. I've laid all the logic out very neatly not to "win" the argument but for you to be able to point to exactly where your thoughts diverge from mine. You respond by mushing it altogether again, and we're right back where we were before.

No i still think Wade is a Top 5 talent. that's why I used the Adrian Peterson scenario. Wade put up a 1000 yard season, with a 5+ ypc, while Manning(Lebron) put up 4000 yards, 40 tds/4 ints. Lebron is Top 5, Wade ain't.

Wade "could" carry a bigger load on a different team, but...he's not. He's on the Heat, coasting, not putting up Top 5 performances, not having a Top 5 impact. Melo is doing more, Harden is doing more, Kobe was doing more, TD is doing more, even Parker is doing more. Wade's whole argument is that he's part of a team with Lebron playing at an all-time level, which really shouldn't be a factor. I have to wonder how Scottie Pippen only made it once(1997), because he fits the Player A role better than Wade.

Maybe this is why my picks have been so controversial, I base my vote on a player's actual impact/play each season, not what they "could" do. Dwight '"could" play like a Top 5 player, but he clearly didn't' this year.

Okay this is more helpful.

So fundamentally what you're focused on is who is doing more, not who could do more. I get that. I also get that you don't think the Heat have really done much amazing yet, and that you think that what they have done goes basically toward LeBron.

Just consider what I say now if by season's end you are convinced that the Heat basically toyed with the rest of the league this year. You know LeBron's not capable of something like that on his own. You know the Heatles weren't able to do anything like this in the first two years. You know to whatever extent this quantum leap exists, it has everything to do with a reformation of the team's offense which involved LeBron & Wade changing how they played.

Now, if the team had achieved this with Wade putting up '10-11 numbers, would you seriously object to Wade considered as I'm considering him now?

If not, then recognize that Wade's contributing more value by sacrificing his game than he was putting up the bigger numbers. It's a complimentary role certainly, but that when a superstar takes on such a role and the result it extreme outlier team success, this is basically the most impactful thing he could possibly do for his team.

Keep in mind then how much harder it is to improve an already great team than it is to improve a bad team, and how much more worthwhile it is. It does not make sense to solely compare the number of wins added by Wade this year to the number of wins added by Melo.

And the comparison to Dwight couldn't be much further from accurate. The primary issue with Dwight isn't with his individual play looking less star-like, it's that he came to a new team and really seemed to just make them worse. His struggles here, trying to make a good team into something great, go precisely to why I urge people not to dismiss Wade's complimentary impact.

[therealbig3]

Steph Curry really wants to crack the top 5...

[SideshowBob]

Steph Curry really wants to crack the top 5...

Hell yeah. Good call on him dude. fatal as well.

I thought he was fantastic in the RS, but he's looked more impressive here with each successive game.

[therealbig3]

Only thing I'm worried about with Curry are his ankles and now his eye. Apparently, that left ankle is really bothering him, so hopefully he's ok and won't have to sit out games. And who knows how the eye will affect his shooting? IMO, he's been outshining Harden by a lot in the playoffs so far. I don't think there was such a massive gap between them in the regular season that a better playoffs wouldn't jump Curry over Harden. We'll see with regards to Curry vs Melo and Curry vs Wade, but my thoughts with those two comparisons are similar to my thoughts on Curry vs Harden. I think Curry's regular season and his game in general were really underrated by most people.

[GSP]

Its not a matter of opinion Curry has way better than Harden in the playoff

[ardee]

Its not a matter of opinion Curry has way better than Harden in the playoff

Curry has been the best player in the entire Playoffs, leave alone Harden.

If he somehow keeps this production up and the Warriors make the WCF, we may have to look at it as a really epic PG peak, which would've been unthinkable even around the AS break. Fact is in the last 30 games he's averaging 27-4-8 on 48/48/91 and 63% TS.

[Mean_Streets]

Just like I expected, Harden was exposed this postseason.

36 FG% & 5 TO per game. And people thought he was an efficient player, lol.

[acrossthecourt]

Just like I expected, Harden was exposed this postseason.

36 FG% & 5 TO per game. And people thought he was an efficient player, lol.

I really do not care for knee-jerk reactions like this.

First of all, it's been a small number of games. You do not judge players on that many games. He had an entire season as the number one guy on the team where he proved he's an efficient scorer! And the Thunder have a top five defense.

And it's pretty well known that one-star teams in the postseason suffer more than others. Defenses can focus on one guy, and the intensity and pressure means there's a lot more sophistication of these schemes.

I don't get this hatred of Harden. Everyone is cheering him to fail. What is he, a child abuser?

[An Unbiased Fan]

Okay this is more helpful.

So fundamentally what you're focused on is who is doing more, not who could do more. I get that. I also get that you don't think the Heat have really done much amazing yet, and that you think that what they have done goes basically toward LeBron.

Just consider what I say now if by season's end you are convinced that the Heat basically toyed with the rest of the league this year. You know LeBron's not capable of something like that on his own. You know the Heatles weren't able to do anything like this in the first two years. You know to whatever extent this quantum leap exists, it has everything to do with a reformation of the team's offense which involved LeBron & Wade changing how they played.

Now, if the team had achieved this with Wade putting up '10-11 numbers, would you seriously object to Wade considered as I'm considering him now?

If not, then recognize that Wade's contributing more value by sacrificing his game than he was putting up the bigger numbers. It's a complimentary role certainly, but that when a superstar takes on such a role and the result it extreme outlier team success, this is basically the most impactful thing he could possibly do for his team.

Keep in mind then how much harder it is to improve an already great team than it is to improve a bad team, and how much more worthwhile it is. It does not make sense to solely compare the number of wins added by Wade this year to the number of wins added by Melo.

And the comparison to Dwight couldn't be much further from accurate. The primary issue with Dwight isn't with his individual play looking less star-like, it's that he came to a new team and really seemed to just make them worse. His struggles here, trying to make a good team into something great, go precisely to why I urge people not to dismiss Wade's complimentary impact.

Doc, I definitely think Wade deserves credit for adapting his game around Lebron's. I think where we disagree is on whether his "sacrifice", puts him above over players this year who had more impact on the court with their play. If there was an award for teammate of the year, then I think Wade would have a case, but I can only go by actual play, and not the potential impact Wade sacrificed so things could run through Lebron.

And while Miami had a great regular season, I'm still not sure they're better than previous years. Their defense in particular is pedestrian. They had the easiest SOS in the league, and while the streak and 2nd half record was great, a lot of those games they squeaked by. If they were putting up some all-time great offense or defense, it would be one thing, but they're not. I jus tthink they're a team of Vets who have been together for 3 years, and added key roleplayers like Allen & Birdman.

Has Wade played better or had more impact than Melo? I would say no. Curry, Harden? Again, i don't see it. Duncan? Before the playoffs I would say they were on par, but right now its Duncan. Kobe's out because of the injury, and Parker has been meh since coming back.

[ElGee]

Well, most people see a very clear divide between 1st-half Miami and 2nd-half Miami. Around January 14, they had a big meeting to discuss focus and dedication. Chris Andersen was signed later in the week. Dwyane Wade rounded into physical shape. And...

Over the next 3 months LeBron James played in 40 games. Miami had +10 SRS (historically good), and a +9 or 115 ORtg (historically good). I can see a very good argument for the credit being distributed like it was among the 90's Bulls with Wade playing Pippen's part, Bosh playing Grant/Rodman, and these parts being flanked by shooters and defense/rebounding bigs.

You guys are talking about Wade here, and I wouldn't put this season on par with peak Pippen, but nonetheless if you view Miami's "true" value as what they've done over the last ~50 games since shoring the team up, it doesn't seem bizarre to view Wade's play (actual play, not potential) as very good.

From Jan 16 to Mar 22 ("healthy Wade?") he averaged 23-6-6 2.4 steals 57% TS. The Heat this year were +13 with him on the court and +3 with him off it. None of those are definitive, of course, but what are you seeing to suggest the guys isn't playing really well. I personally consider his health/durability a bit of an issue so we'll see how he looks in the next two rounds, but just because he's leagues away from LeBron doesn't mean he isn't better than most of the league...

[SideshowBob]

I hear you on Wade UBF, the RPOY IMO should be more geared towards results-oriented thinking. My issue has been that I'm simply not as impressed by the field; Wade's just looked better to me than Bryant or Anthony, because I'm more impressed with his role as the 2nd cog in Miami's very dominant 2nd half performance. Bryant can't can any ground on him at this point, even if Wade hasn't been all that impressive in the PS so far, and I had Bryant ahead of Anthony to begin with, who hasn't impressed me either. He had a strong RS relative to himself, but the old issues have returned in the PS. NY is winning that series because of our offensive ineptitude, they haven't done anything noteworthy offensively at all, and part of that is because Anthony's gone away from what he was starting to make progress with this year and just started chucking again (42.6% USG, 51.1% TS, 129 TSA vs 4 assists). Its hard for me to really take that as a big positive, or at least enough to make him look more impressive than Wade has on the whole.

With that said, I do agree with Elgee. Durability is an issue, and if his play continues to be shoddy throughout the rest of the playoffs, I'll reconsider further (I'm already wary with how the 1st rounds gone).

[acrossthecourt]

Although I do value durability and playing time, simply put if I feel there is a large degree of separation in how "good" someone was (like on a per possession basis) then I can excuse a modest minutes disparity. I'd take something like Wade > Harden > Kobe, unless I could sneak George in there.

I cannot see how Kobe is a top five candidate when his defense was highly detrimental and the season was an utter disaster. He also seemed to marginalize Steve Nash, one of the greatest offensive players ever, never really giving him a chance. I know injuries limited Nash, but Nash was turned into a spot-up shooter. Surely, something more ideal could have been done. And while he played huge minutes during the season, he was unavailable for the playoffs. We can debate whether or not the Achilles injury was caused by overuse until the sun burns out (as I understand it, there's a medical study about sports and that injury in the works, though I'm not sure if it has an answer).... This is kinda funny because Kobe and his fans usually have the high win total/success argument over most players. This is the year they can't use that, but apparently it's an exception, right?

I think one of the most amazing things about LeBron's season (no, not his FG%) was his versatility. He worked very well within an offense, passing to shooters everywhere and allowing Wade to dominate at times, taking tough defensive assignments when he needed to. He was also able to reign over an elite offense, as the Heat (I think) ranked 22-ish all-time in offensive efficiency over the league average.

Lost in all the hubbub about how it's a super team is that the Heat are not the Spurs in finding role players. They have this weird fascination with terrible centers, and it's no coincidence that when they finally found a center they needed (an energy big man who could rebound and block shots; that's all they need) they went on a historic streak. They still have this weird crush on Haslem and play him too much, and Norris Cole is secretly one of the worst players in the league and shouldn't even be in the Bobcats' guard rotation. It'll be important to track the minutes of Haslem and Cole against real opponents in the east. If they play big minutes, the Heat are beatable in the finals.

[Doctor MJ]

Updated tallies after 2013 voting:

The RPOY 59 (for the 59 years of shot clock basketball) based on POY shares:

Code: Select all

1. Bill Russell
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Michael Jordan
4. Wilt Chamberlain
5. Magic Johnson

6. Tim Duncan
7. Larry Bird
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. LeBron James (up 1)
10. Julius Erving

11. Karl Malone
12. Bob Pettit
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Kobe Bryant (up 1)
(tie). Hakeem Olajuwon

16. Jerry West
17. Kevin Garnett
18. Moses Malone
19. Dwyane Wade
20. David Robinson

21. Dirk Nowitzki
22. Elgin Baylor
23. Dolph Schayes
24. Walt Frazier
25. Charles Barkley

26. Chris Paul (up 5)
27. George Gervin
28. Kevin Durant (up 10)
29. Bob McAdoo
30. Bill Walton

31. Steve Nash
32. Rick Barry
33. Bob Cousy
34. Neil Johnston
35. Dwight Howard

36. Patrick Ewing
37. Paul Arizin
38. Alonzo Mourning
39. Gary Payton
40. Willis Reed

41. Artis Gilmore
42. John Havlicek
43. Dave Cowens
44. Sidney Moncrief
45. Tracy McGrady

46. Cliff Hagan
47. Larry Foust
48. Bob Lanier
49. Clyde Drexler
50. Bernard King

51. Scottie Pippen
52. Grant Hill
53. Nate Thurmond
54. David Thompson
55. Allen Iverson

56. Elvin Hayes
57. Dominique Wilkins
58. Isiah Thomas
59. Penny Hardaway

Players with the most years at #1 - our POYs:

Code: Select all

1. Michael Jordan (9 years)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (8)
3. Bill Russell (7)
4. Larry Bird (4)
   Wilt Chamberlain (4)
   Tim Duncan (4)
   LeBron James (4)
8. Shaquille O'Neal (3)
9. Bob Pettit (2)
   Hakeem Olajuwon (2)
   Kevin Garnett (2)
   Moses Malone (2)


Players with most unanimous POY awards:

Code: Select all

1. Michael Jordan (4)
2. Bill Russell (3)
3. Larry Bird (2)
   LeBron James (2)
   Shaquille O'Neal (2)
5. Kevin Garnett (1)
   Moses Malone (1)
   Wilt Chamberlain (1)


Youngest POY winners (Age)

Code: Select all

1. Tim Duncan (22)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (23)
3. Bill Russell (24)
   Bob Pettit (24)
   Dwyane Wade (24)
   Larry Bird (24)
   LeBron James (24)
   Michael Jordan (24)
9. Julius Erving (25)
10. Dolph Schayes (26)
    Moses Malone (26)

Oldest POY winners (Age)

Code: Select all

1. Bill Russell (34)
   Michael Jordan (34)
3. Hakeem Olajuwon (32)
   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (32)
   Dirk Nowitzki (32)
6. Jerry West (31)
   Kevin Garnett (31)
   Wilt Chamberlain (31)
9. Rick Barry (30)
   Tim Duncan (30)


Players with most years receiving votes:

Code: Select all

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (17)
2. Wilt Chamberlain (13)
   Tim Duncan (13)
   Julius Erving (13)
   Karl Malone (13)
   Bill Russell (13)   
7. Kobe Bryant (12)
   Hakeem Olajuwon (12)
9. Jerry West (11)
   Magic Johnson (11)
   Michael Jordan (11)
   Oscar Robertson (11)
   Shaquille O'Neal (11)
   Kevin Garnett (11)
   Dirk Nowitzki (11)

Highest 00s POY shares:

Code: Select all

1. Tim Duncan
2. Shaquille O'Neal
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Kevin Garnett
5. LeBron James

6. Dwyane Wade
7. Dirk Nowitzki
8. Steve Nash
9. Chris Paul
10. Tracy McGrady

Highest 90s POY shares:

Code: Select all

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. Hakeem Olajuwon
4. David Robinson
5. Shaquille O'Neal

6. Magic Johnson
7. Charles Barkley
8. Patrick Ewing
9. Tim Duncan
10. Clyde Drexler

Highest 80s POY shares:

Code: Select all

1. Larry Bird
2. Magic Johnson
3. Moses Malone
4. Michael Jordan
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

6. Julius Erving
7. Hakeem Olajuwon
8. Sidney Moncrief
9. Charles Barkley
10. Bernard King

Highest 70s POY shares:

Code: Select all

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. Walt Frazier
4. Wilt Chamberlain
5. Bob McAdoo

6. Jerry West
7. Bill Walton
8. George Gervin
9. Rick Barry
10. Artis Gilmore

Highest 60s POY shares:

Code: Select all

1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Oscar Robertson
4. Jerry West
5. Elgin Baylor

6. Bob Pettit
7. Nate Thurmond
8. Willis Reed
9. John Havlicek
10. Sam Jones

Highest POY shares, post-shot clock, pre-ABA years:

Code: Select all

1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Bob Pettit
4. Oscar Robertson
5. Dolph Schayes

6. Elgin Baylor
7. Jerry West
8. Bob Cousy
9. Neil Johnston
10. Paul Arizin

Highest POY shares, during ABA years:

Code: Select all

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Jerry West
4. Julius Erving
5. Walt Frazier

6. Bill Russell
7. Bob McAdoo
8. Rick Barry
9. Oscar Robertson
10. Willis Reed

Highest POY shares, post-merger:

Code: Select all

1. Michael Jordan
2. Magic Johnson
3. Tim Duncan
4. Larry Bird
5. Shaquille O'Neal

6. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. Karl Malone
8. Hakeem Olajuwon
9. Kobe Bryant
10. Moses Malone

Players who have been a Player of the Decade over some 10 year period:

Code: Select all

Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Shaquille O'Neal
Tim Duncan
LeBron James


Lists updated, July 2013

[sp6r=underrated]

Pretty interesting rereading this thread how people overreacted to that 27 game win streak. By MOV it was impressive but far from GOAT level that that team was mistaken as. I guess it comes down to the fact that people overvalue wins and undervalue MOV when it comes to evaluating teams. I find it somewhat surprising on a board were people are obsessed with RAPM that a far more proven and simple stat is somewhat ignored.

[Doctor MJ]

Pretty interesting rereading this thread how people overreacted to that 27 game win streak. By MOV it was impressive but far from GOAT level that that team was mistaken as. I guess it comes down to the fact that people overvalue wins and undervalue MOV when it comes to evaluating teams. I find it somewhat surprising on a board were people are obsessed with RAPM that a far more proven and simple stat is somewhat ignored.

I still think the jury is out.

The whole reason you feel confident that the 27 game streak wasn't representative of the team's true capabilities is what you saw in the playoffs, during which Wade was hurt.

Re: "By MOV...why don't people use MOV?". Because it's not a team's job to win by as many points as possible, it's just to win. The more extreme a team's situation then, the more MOV stops reflecting how good the team is.

Do you not remember in that streak how it seemed like Miami was continually coasting in the 1st half and having to come from behind? It would be absurd to try to use those 1st halves to attempt to put a ceiling on how impressive that streak was.

None of this is to say I don't use MOV, but the fact that OKC had a much higher MOV than Miami last year did not in the slightest make me think that they were the better team.

[SideshowBob]

The postseason was actually a step up in terms of SRS, granted there's significant bias in playoff SRS due to a limited # of games and opponents and slightly different scheduling than the RS. I've combined it with regular season SRS, and then also presented an average with the postseason games weighted 3 times as much as regular season games

2013 Miami SRS (RS + PS, 105 G): +7.4 SRS, +7.8 Offense, -0.7 Defense

3x PS weighting: +7.8 SRS, +8.2 Offense, -0.9 Defense

------------------------------------------------------------------

Post Team Meeting (RS + PS, 71 G): +8.9 SRS, +8.9 Offense, -1.2 Defense

3x PS weighting: +8.9 SRS, +9.0 Offense, -1.3 Defense

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Post Team Meeting, with Lebron playing (RS + PS, 65 G): +9.6 SRS, +9.4 Offense, -1.6 Defense

3x PS Weighting: +9.3 SRS, +9.3 Offense, -1.5 Defense

[sp6r=underrated]

Pretty interesting rereading this thread how people overreacted to that 27 game win streak. By MOV it was impressive but far from GOAT level that that team was mistaken as. I guess it comes down to the fact that people overvalue wins and undervalue MOV when it comes to evaluating teams. I find it somewhat surprising on a board were people are obsessed with RAPM that a far more proven and simple stat is somewhat ignored.

I still think the jury is out.

Re: "By MOV...why don't people use MOV?". Because it's not a team's job to win by as many points as possible, it's just to win. The more extreme a team's situation then, the more MOV stops reflecting how good the team is.

Ugh, MOV has been proven to be a better predictor of team quality than W/L. Disregarding point differential in evaluating team performance is like disregarding scoring efficiency when evaluating individual scoring. The Heat have barely above median SRS for NBA champions in since the late 80s expansion. They didn't even reach the peak of the Shaq/Kobe lakers or Duncan Spurs let alone come close to the bulls. The gap between their PD and the GOAT caliber clubs is like the individual stats gap between the best seasons of Lebron and Kobe.

Disregarding that data is like when the Kobe fans in 06 started disregarding all of the advanced stats that showed Jordan was conclusively better.

Coasting = I think the team is better than their performance so I'll disregard the data that I don't like. The Heat's best player is Lebron James who is one of the superstars who goes all out every game.It is one of his greatest virtues that like MJ he can muster full effort for those January games against the bucks. This coasting crap is just that crap. There is maybe one recent NBA champion that you can make a decent case coasted on a regular basis and that is the Shaq lakers who were led by the laziest ATG in history.

As to the Wade injury, many NBA champions have superstars playing injured (10 Kobe [knee], 05 Duncan [ankle]). Hell, their opposition wasn't healthy in the post-season. The bulls were a total mash unit and Parker hurt his hamstring in the finals.

As to the Thunder we'll never know because their second best player missed the entire PS.

The whole reason you feel confident that the 27 game streak wasn't representative of the team's true capabilities is what you saw in the playoffs, during which Wade was hurt.

Nope and I have the post that prove it.

May 7. Right G1 ECSF

If stacked Heat team lose to Bulls team missing their league MVP best player or any notable star is Lebron out of top 5 GOAT chat? Even further does this put to rest the Lebron GOAT hype?

It's pretty clear that this season is only going to be a GOAT contender for LeBron if he wins a title.

Losing to Chicago though would be more shocking than just that though certainly. It's hard to even imagine how it could happen.

Chicago is so banged up they don't have the offensive firepower to do it but this Heat team has a real flaw: they are weak on the boards and if they were to win a title they would probably be the weakest rebounding team to do since the 95 rockets. The Heat are vulnerable on the boards and that is the reason their point differential doesn't match their aura of an ATG best in history team that so many have given them.

Chicago does have the front-court to get those offensive boards unfortunately they lack enough true scorers to win the series.

Chicago is so banged up they don't have the offensive firepower to do it but this Heat team has a real flaw: they are weak on the boards and if they were to win a title they would probably be the weakest rebounding team to do since the 95 rockets. The Heat are vulnerable on the boards and that is the reason their point differential doesn't match their aura of an ATG best in history team that so many have given them.

Chicago does have the front-court to get those offensive boards unfortunately they lack enough true scorers to win the series.

I agree with you that Miami is weak on the boards but the point differential comment is just weird. Their aura exists because of how they tore through the second half of the season which left people thinking 1) the first half was them coasting, and 2) the Heat were so dominant when push came to shove that they could take the first half off.

First, saying a team is weak on the boards almost entirely refutes the idea that a team is best in history quality.

Second, During their 27 game win streak their avg MOv was 11.92.

Many teams, which aren't regarded as ATG teams had 27 game stretches were they outscored their opponents by similar margins. The 90 Pistons had a 27 game stretch were they went 25-2 and won by 11.56. Were they an ATG team?

Point differential as an indicator of team quality is far more proven than plus/minus as an indicator of individual quality. The case for point differential is as strong as the case for cigarettes causing lung cancer while the case for plus/minus is only slightly superior to the case that organic food being good for you. Yet for some reason on this board it is plus/minus that is taken as gospel while people constantly dismiss point differential under "oh they were coasting".

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1249294&start=30#p35718511

May 27

They have been very impressive since he joined by Miami but their record is deceptive. They have been extremely lucky in close games since he joined the club. Their point differential over this stretch is +10.98 which is nothing like the 75 win pace their record looks like.

I'm sure people are going to get outraged by calling it luck but one of the most established facts statisticians have shown in basketball and all sports is that winning close games is more luck than skill.

The Heat are playing great but their level of play is well below 48-4. You need to be winning games by an average of 15+ to be in that range.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1252175&start=15#p35896586

This was right after G1 of the ECF when Miami was 9-1 and I was hammering MOV.

This isn't hindsight I was pounding away on MOV through March, April and May that Miami wasn't a GOAT team. I can dig up more old posts if need be.

I was right.

[SideshowBob]

snip

On that matter, Miami still hasn't even managed to match the 09 Cavaliers SRS of +8.7, and as much as I much as I was singing their praises last season, I'm pretty certain even I made a point to bring up their rather low MOV for a team that was playing like a 76 win team by Win% in that 48-4 stretch. Heck, teams that hit double digit winning streaks routinely sustain +10-15. Considering their weak schedule over that stretch, 48-4 and 27 can very easily be attributed to noise.

Hell, I think the strongest Miami's ever looked is probably still the 2011 Eastern Conference Playoffs. Boston and Chicago were both -7 defenses, and are the two best SRS teams they've faced in the East in 3 postseason runs. And I'm still not sure that I would even call that dominance.