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Retro Player of the Year Project

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Post#1336 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Sun Oct 2, 2011 10:28 am by PTB Fan

Is there an open place to join this project?
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Post#1337 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Tue Oct 4, 2011 9:57 pm by RandomKnight

There are plenty of smart and insightful things written on this sight. As with life in general those bright things are the exception.

There are mountains of dumb, blind things said on this sight. This RPOTY project is one of the most partisan and phony of all. I am speaking of the list itself, not the posts. I am sure there are some good posts. Figured someone ought to point it out. Just lame.
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Post#1338 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Wed Oct 5, 2011 2:55 am by Doormatt

site, not sight. if youre going to insult something, at least do it write. :)
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Post#1339 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Wed Oct 5, 2011 9:39 pm by RandomKnight

Doormatt wrote:site, not sight. if youre going to insult something, at least do it write. :)


Touche. I make those kinds of mistakes, even though I know better, too often.

PS I am assuming your faux pas was in jest.

By the way, we registered within a couple of days of each other. You have out-posted me 10 to 1.
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Post#1340 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Thu Oct 6, 2011 5:13 am by Doormatt

cool story bro?
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Post#1341 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Sun Jun 3, 2012 2:08 pm by PTB Fan

Great project you have going on here!
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Post#1342 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:33 am by Doctor MJ

With the completion of the '11-12 voting, I've updated the lists on the first post of the thread:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1004743#p23122302

Major news:

LeBron James now ranks 10th all-time in POY shares, and joins the select club of players who have been a Player of the Decade over a 10 year stretch.

I expect semi-sentient will update his website for the project soon. That will always remain the coolest place to check out the results. Link:

http://rpoy.dolem.com/
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Post#1343 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:39 pm by C-izMe

No highest 10s POY Shares section yet? It's been two years.
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Post#1344 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:35 pm by semi-sentient

Finally got around to updating the site.

C-izMe wrote:No highest 10s POY Shares section yet? It's been two years.


Check out the "Misc" section on http://rpoy.dolem.com. There are a few different views available, including POY share leaders.

Doc: LeBron is actually up to the #9 spot, just ahead of Dr J.
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Post#1345 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:53 am by MacGill

semi-sentient wrote:Finally got around to updating the site.

C-izMe wrote:No highest 10s POY Shares section yet? It's been two years.


Check out the "Misc" section on http://rpoy.dolem.com. There are a few different views available, including POY share leaders.

Doc: LeBron is actually up to the #9 spot, just ahead of Dr J.


Hey Semi, 82-83 has Moses #1 & #2.
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Post#1346 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:09 am by lorak

MacGill wrote:
Hey Semi, 82-83 has Moses #1 & #2.


Because he was so dominant that year.
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Post#1347 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:59 am by semi-sentient

Looks like a few of the years got mixed up (82-83 were combined, and '81 was missing). Should be good to go now.
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Post#1348 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Tue Jul 17, 2012 12:33 pm by JordansBulls

You should use Lebron in a Heat jersey for 2012 instead of a Cavs jersey. :D
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Post#1349 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:00 pm by DayofMourning

Awesome stuff. Those all time rankings are pretty correct by my view. Great work.
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Post#1350 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Sat Oct 6, 2012 4:32 pm by ushvinder88

Larry Bird being chosen as the 1981 player of the year is probably the weakest choice ever. He wasn't even top 10 in PER during the regular season, did absolutely nothing in the nba finals. Moses Malone, Dr. J and Kareem were all better that year.

Kevin Garnett for 2008 is a hoorendously weak choice too. Played sheltered minutes during the regular season, was the 2nd scoring option in order to win a ring. Chris Paul and Lebron were clearly better players this year.

It's obvious the criteria is which player got to play on a team that won, rather than who actually was the best. Surprising though that the criteria doesnt have magic above bird in 1985 when magic was clearly better in the playoffs.
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Post#1351 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Sun Oct 7, 2012 4:33 pm by Doctor MJ

ushvinder88 wrote:It's obvious the criteria is which player got to play on a team that won, rather than who actually was the best. Surprising though that the criteria doesnt have magic above bird in 1985 when magic was clearly better in the playoffs.


Interesting.

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Post#1352 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Mon Oct 8, 2012 1:08 pm by tsherkin

ushvinder88 wrote:Larry Bird being chosen as the 1981 player of the year is probably the weakest choice ever. He wasn't even top 10 in PER during the regular season, did absolutely nothing in the nba finals. Moses Malone, Dr. J and Kareem were all better that year.


Using PER as an argument is always a bad start.

Kevin Garnett for 2008 is a hoorendously weak choice too. Played sheltered minutes during the regular season, was the 2nd scoring option in order to win a ring. Chris Paul and Lebron were clearly better players this year.


Yes, using the guy who was the DPOY and 3rd in the MVP vote was such a bad idea... The whole idea of a
veteran team was to distribute the offensive load and then conserve minutes to help the older players (Pierce, KG and Ray were 30, 31 and 32 respectively that season) stay healthy through the RS and into the PS. Don't miss the forest for the trees on that one, especially since KG played 38 mpg in the playoffs.

More particularly, he was the first option in the playoffs. He struggled at times, that's true, but by a rather wide margin, he was the primary volume scoring threat on the team in the playoffs. Pierce's FGA/g don't reflect his overall usage, of course, you have to account for how effectively he was drawing fouls on possessions not recorded in FGA, but still. The team was running the ball into Garnett a LOT, and he was creating with his passing ability and with his scoring threat.

You can certainly make a good argument for Paul and Lebron that year, but you're doing it in a particularly poor fashion.

It's obvious the criteria is which player got to play on a team that won, rather than who actually was the best. Surprising though that the criteria doesnt have magic above bird in 1985 when magic was clearly better in the playoffs.


I'll echo Doctor MJ's comment on that one, because the logic is just abominable.
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Post#1353 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Mon Oct 8, 2012 1:35 pm by ushvinder88

tsherkin wrote:
ushvinder88 wrote:Larry Bird being chosen as the 1981 player of the year is probably the weakest choice ever. He wasn't even top 10 in PER during the regular season, did absolutely nothing in the nba finals. Moses Malone, Dr. J and Kareem were all better that year.


Using PER as an argument is always a bad start.

Kevin Garnett for 2008 is a hoorendously weak choice too. Played sheltered minutes during the regular season, was the 2nd scoring option in order to win a ring. Chris Paul and Lebron were clearly better players this year.


Yes, using the guy who was the DPOY and 3rd in the MVP vote was such a bad idea... The whole idea of a
veteran team was to distribute the offensive load and then conserve minutes to help the older players (Pierce, KG and Ray were 30, 31 and 32 respectively that season) stay healthy through the RS and into the PS. Don't miss the forest for the trees on that one, especially since KG played 38 mpg in the playoffs.

More particularly, he was the first option in the playoffs. He struggled at times, that's true, but by a rather wide margin, he was the primary volume scoring threat on the team in the playoffs. Pierce's FGA/g don't reflect his overall usage, of course, you have to account for how effectively he was drawing fouls on possessions not recorded in FGA, but still. The team was running the ball into Garnett a LOT, and he was creating with his passing ability and with his scoring threat.

You can certainly make a good argument for Paul and Lebron that year, but you're doing it in a particularly poor fashion.

It's obvious the criteria is which player got to play on a team that won, rather than who actually was the best. Surprising though that the criteria doesnt have magic above bird in 1985 when magic was clearly better in the playoffs.


I'll echo Doctor MJ's comment on that one, because the logic is just abominable.

Many people consider chris paul's 2008 and 2009 runs arguable the best ever for pg since magic in 1987. Kevin garnett's 2008 run was probably not even a top 15-20 season ever by a pf. I remember the 2008 season like it was yesterday, garnett was not the best player in the league, he was clearly worse than the 2003-2005 garnett. Again this is an example where realgm selectively chooses player of the year based on team success. However, that theory is thrown out of the window when it comes to the golden boy larry bird and his epic choke job in 1985.

I dont care if PER isnt the only criteria. Dr. J in 1981 was also a much better defender than bird was. Moses Malone outperformed larry bird in both the regular season and the playoffs. The retro player of the year is nothing more than made up revisionism by internet fans.
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Post#1354 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Mon Oct 8, 2012 2:13 pm by tsherkin

ushvinder88 wrote:Many people consider chris paul's 2008 and 2009 runs arguable the best ever for pg since magic in 1987.


I don't disagree with you here, as it happens, which is why I said that I think you CAN make pretty strong arguments for Paul and Lebron in 2008, but rather objected to your angle of approach, not your result. I merely pointed out that Garnett's selection wasn't this terrible tragedy and injustice, as you implied.

Kevin garnett's 2008 run was probably not even a top 15-20 season ever by a pf.


Performance relative to historical position is interesting, but there's nothing that definitively suggests that a great performance relative to historical PGs is more valuable than what Garnett did in for the Celtics relative to historical PFs. It's an interesting narrative, of course, but it means only so much.

I remember the 2008 season like it was yesterday, garnett was not the best player in the league, he was clearly worse than the 2003-2005 garnett. Again this is an example where realgm selectively chooses player of the year based on team success. However, that theory is thrown out of the window when it comes to the golden boy larry bird and his epic choke job in 1985.


That's one way to look at it. Remember, though, that the RPOY Project defined their goal as this:

Our definition for the Player of the Year was the player who had the best season, including both regular season and playoffs.


It didn't say most productive, it didn't say best player, it said best season factoring in both the RS and the PS. That changes the tone of what happened a lot, and will invariably weight towards players who were able to accomplish more in the PS as well. Don't forget that Garnett's raw scoring average dropped because of his teammates and minutes and he had what was arguably the best offensive season of his career in terms of facilitating team offense and per-possession production.

In any case, you have a subjective opinion that is different from the consensus, which is cool. There were a number of intriguing candidates that year... and Garnett didn't win unanimously. He was neck-and-neck with Bryant (.692 to .650 POY shares), with Paul and James next at .592 and .554, respectively. It was a tight race, and like any vote, it's more about who was in the top group than the final result (unless it was a really strongly one-sided vote, which this wasn't). You're using an example that really doesn't support your argument all that much, though, because Garnett was a reasonably strong candidate and the basic premise of the project was designed to reward postseason play. Calling it revisionist history misses the point and makes you seem oddly bitter over the results, since you don't seem to understand the notion behind the project.

I dont care if PER isnt the only criteria. Dr. J in 1981 was also a much better defender than bird was. Moses Malone outperformed larry bird in both the regular season and the playoffs. The retro player of the year is nothing more than made up revisionism by internet fans.


Yes, Dr. J was a better defender in 81. But yes, Bird was a 21/11/5.5 player in the RS who was still a very good help defender. There are some intriguing arguments for both players when you look at the RS, and then Bird was a 22/14/6 player come the playoffs. Played pretty well, at least until the Finals.

But what you may be forgetting is this:

81 Erving

RS: 24.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 4.4 apg, 57.2% TS, 113 ORTG, great defense
PS: 22.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.4 apg, 52.7% TS, 105 ORTG, less effective defense

That's a pretty steep drop-off in efficacy. He played three rounds, lost to Bird's Celtics and looked worse in the playoffs than he did in the RS. Noticeably so, at that, including WAY worse at scoring efficiently compared to the regular season. His offensive productivity and efficiency tailed off pretty badly.

Now, 81 Bird

RS: 21.2 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 5.5 apg, 52.8% TS, 107 ORTG
PS: 21.9 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 6.1 apg, 53.2% TS, 109 ORTG

Hmmm.... Unlike Erving, Bird didn't actually worsen compared to his RS performance... he actually improved on the glass and as a playmaker, scored slightly more and very slightly elevated his efficiency. The exact opposite of what happened with Dr. J. Inclusion of the postseason begins to matter!

Now, let's look at the Philly/Boston series in the ECFs, which was neck and neck through the first four games before the Sixers dropped the last three in a row.

Bird: 26.7 ppg, 6.7 FTA/g (don't have data beyond FGM, FTM, FTA and PTS)
Erving: 19.9 ppg, 5.0 FTA/

What should be sharply apparent to you there is how much less effective Erving was in that series compared not only to the regular season but compared to the previous two rounds of the playoffs. In a comparison considering the efficacy of a player in both the regular season and the postseason, a stinker performance in the conference finals is going to factor in rather heavily when you're going head to head against a guy who stuck it to that same player's team rather angrily. Now, there's no efficiency data there, of course, but I think it's pretty clear that Bird was torching the Sixers pretty badly. There's only so much that can be said there, since he had a roughly 6-point increase in his scoring volume and commensurate increase in FTAs of nearly 75%. That's the rough profile of Bird kicking Erving's Sixers in the teeth.

Now, the Finals, over which you weep so readily, the 6-game victory of Moses Malone's Rockets.

Bird: 15.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 7.0 apg

Right off of the bat, we see a decline in scoring volume. Not good, but there's a significant rebounding and passing increase as well to compensate. 45.98% TS. Rough, ugly, terrible.

Game-by-game:

G1: 9/17 FG, 0/0 FT, 18 pts, 21 reb, 9 ast, 5 tov
G2: 8/18 FG, 3/3 FT, 19 pts, 21 reb, 3 ast, 5 stl
G3: 3/11 FG, 2/4 FT, 8 pts, 13 reb, 10 ast, 5 stl
G4: 3/11 FG, 2/2 FT, 8 pts, 12 reb, 7 ast and a bad turnover late in the 4th
G5: 5/16 FG, 2/2 FT, 12 pts, 12 reb, 8 ast,
G6: 11/20 FG, 4/5 FT, 26 pts, 13 reb, 5 ast

In the elimination game, he scored16 pts in the second half and 7 of them in the last 3 or 4 minutes.

Looking at that narrative, he struggled from the field in the middle three games while continuing to hit the boards and play an important role as a passing hub. You know from watching that he played good help defense and then he rammed Houston in the teeth in the elimination game. Not quite the picture painted by the overall series averages, which is often the case. Also looking at how he began and ended the series, as well as his performance outside of scoring, it kind of changes the whole tone of how people approach that series. He's not a perfect player, but given his RS performance, his performance overall on the playoffs (especially through the first three rounds and how he kicked in Erving's Sixers in the ECFs) and then how he closed out Game 6 against Malone's Rockets, it's really not all that surprising that he won the RPOY vote.

Remember, you're operating from an errant understanding of what the project was about. It wasn't about the "best player" in the sense of who was individually the best in the RS... that's not even what the MVP is about. The project was rating the best combination of RS and PS performance and results, and given that Bird was an elite performer in both the regular and postseason and the specific results he had, that's not a bad fit.
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Post#1355 Re: Retro Player of the Year Project
Mon Oct 8, 2012 7:04 pm by ushvinder88

The gap in the regular season between bird and dr.j was massive, dont even try and make it sound like it was close. Hey since you tried using his playoff run as a reason as to why you rank him above dr. j and moses in 1981. Where is the same argument for magic in 1985, oh I forgot, for that the playoffs is irrelevant because bird was awesome in the regular season?

1985 playoffs:
Bird: Per of 20.9, TS% of 53.6 and win shares per 48 of .155
Magic: Per of 22.3, TS% of 59.9 and win shares per 48 of .21

Thats called getting outplayed in the playoffs. However I am sure you will make an excuse to disregard bird in 1985, while somehow blaming moses and dr.j for thier shortcoming in 1981. Even though the gap between moses/dr. j and bird in 1981 during the regular season was massive.

Moses was the best player on the court in the 81 playoffs, not bird. Moses lead the playoffs in points, rebounding, had a better per, was clearly more central to how his team got to the finals compared to bird. Had much better regular season numbers. Moses or Dr. J were the player of the year in 81, not bird.
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