RGM Keeper League; Votes Needed

[TMACFORMVP]

OK, so we've been having a Keeper Dynasty game, and are in the final era, which is from the 99-00 season to the 08-09 season, using one year peaks. Our judging has been rather slow, so thought the best option would be to open it up to the crowd on the PC Board. I'll post two matchups, along with their writeups, and rebuttals. Please do take some time to read the writeups as obviously a little bit of time was spent on it. Most importantly, VOTE!

I'll post the next matchup in the next post. I refrained from using a poll, since I'd rather have the poster choose a team, and put a sentence at the minimum about why. It'd be very much helpful if you could vote on both series as well.

Team A
[PG] - '06 Gilbert Arenas (38) - '05 Stephon Marbury (10)
[SG] - '09 Dwyane Wade (42) - '07 Raja Bell (6)
[SF] - '00 Eddie Jones (38) - '03 Jalen Rose (10)
[PF] - '01 Chris Webber (40) - '09 Al Horford (8)
[Cc] - '01 Dikembe Mutombo (40) - '06 Mehmet Okur (8)

Writeup for Team A

We believe we have the right kind of defenders to contain the shooters around Shaq, and Mutombo is as good as any C defender in this era and should do ok against the mighty Shaq. We have the better backcourt by far and Webber (again 27/11/4) should outclass Pau Gasol quite easily.

Offense: We will run the team though our best player, one Dwyane Wade. His slashing ability should put Shaq in foul trouble at some point in the series, and his mid range game will hurt Ginobli quite a bit. Ginobli is good, but only in limited minutes and having to guard Wade will sap his energy. We will have to rely on Arenas more this series, his ability to play off-ball has been questioned but at the very least Billups won't be able to help off him.

Jones will be a corner 3 guy, similar to Peja's role on the other team except his defense against Peja will shine while Peja's defense...even against a corner 3 guy is suspect. There will be no help D coming from the SF position on the other team. Is Pau going to help off of Webber? I doubt it, and I see Webber having a big series. Pau has length and is an ok defender but he will have trouble dealing with Webber in his prime. Webber was a monster in this season, he was a great passer and scorer who could do it all. Pau is a 19/10/3.5 guy not bad, but certainly not in Webbers class. Mutombo will make Shaq pay if he roams to far, he can finish the alley, throw down put backs and whatnot.

I see either Wade or Arenas having monster series, probably both. Chauncey is a good defender but Arenas was a special player in his selected season. If you think my backcourt can co-exist I think I win this series, if you don't I lose. I obviously think both my guards are smart (b-ball wise), and skilled enough to make it work.

Defense:
Arenas on Billups
Wade on Ginobli
Jones on Peja
Webber on Gasol
Mutumbo on Shaq

Billups is a cerebral player concerned with getting his teammates involved, I don't see him really going off. In this context he is a shooter that will have the job of getting the ball down low to Shaq. Wade is a tenacious defender that will give Manu fits I believe. No open shots for Manu, and no disrespect to Manu but I think Wade clearly wins this matchup.

Peja is the guy that really concerns me, he is a remarkable shooter who can do damage with Shaq in the paint. Luckily I have my best defender on him, Jones won't allow Peja to feast on whatever openings Shaq creates. Webber will struggle a bit with Pau, just because he is so long but he will do more damage on the other end.

Finally Mutombo will do what he can against Shaq. Obviously Shaq will have a big series but with my defense surrounding him and Mutombo being a DPOY and one of the greatest C defenders ever we should be able to pull it out.

Bench: I think I have one of the, if not the best benches in this era, it should give me an advantage.

versus.

Team B
[PG] - '06 Chauncey Billups (37) - '08 Manu Ginobili (11)
[SG] - '08 Manu Ginobili (22) - '01 Doug Christie (21) - Tayshaun Prince (5)
[SF] - '04 Peja Stojakovic (32) - '07 Tayshaun Prince (16)
[PF] - '09 Pau Gasol (28) - '00 Clifford Robinson (20)
[Cc] - '00 Shaquille O'neal (38) - '09 Pau Gasol (10)

Writeup for Team B

Shaquille O'neal
I think it's important to hammer in the idea that Shaquille O'neal will in no way shape or form be limited in this series. I don't think people realize how dominant he was at his peak, he's by far the best player in the series, and steps his game up when faced with other "defensive" centers. In fact, I'm starting to believe WORSE reputation defenders are better options to put on Shaq, because he won't take them as seriously. Case in point, let's look at the 2001 NBA Finals (Shaq v. Mutombo).

33.0 PPG, 15.8 RPG, 4.8 APG, 3.4 BPG on .573 from the field.

I would normally think that would be enough, but I was honestly surprised to see some claiming that a much older version of DRob could slow down O'neal in the last round to the point it'd lose us the series (or hold him to his averages; when those averages are still 30/14/3 on 58%). They could barely do that when they had Duncan next to DRob! But even those #'s don't represent the sort of dominance he had over Mutombo. I'm not usually a huge fan of posting youtube videos, but in case anyone hasn't seen the '01 Finals, or has just plain forgotten, watch some of these again; he literally treats Mutombo like he isn't even there. Don't get me wrong, Mutombo is a terrific defender, but Shaq at his ultimate peak was a different animal that would not be stopped.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qo5coKIF ... r_embedded

I know this next one is ten minutes long, but seriously, watch it. He moves Mutombo like he weighs nothing, proceeds to get him into foul trouble, then fouls out the remaining Phildelphia bigs, then continues to dominate Mutombo when he comes back into the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKICLZfK ... r_embedded

This should not be brushed off as a "Mutombo is as good a defender to put on Shaq," since that apparently didn't cut it against a peak O'neal. His stats got BETTER (keep in mind, that's '01 Shaq, not exactly '00). Shaq will abuse Mutombo in this series.

Chris Webber
I don't think this matchup is so cut and dry with that Gasol is 19/10, while Webber is 27/10. If that was the case, then we'd all take the highest volume players and just pit them against each other statistically. Now saying this, Webber in his prime was a very good, and was a better player than Gasol overall, but it's worth noting that Webber's overall game has severe weaknesses, which is a big reason he often underperformed in the playoffs.

1.) Different role
Webber was a very high volume player, in addition to setting up the offense from the high post with his terrific passing skills, he was also a guy in the chosen season that took 23.4 shot attempts per game (which would lead the team). On this team, can anyone say with a straight face that Chris Webber will have the opportunity to set up the offense? With Arenas, and Wade in the backcourt, both ball dominant in their own regard (moreso Arenas), what's the opportunity that Webber will get the ability to initiate the offense - even BI claims the offense will be fully run through Dwyane Wade and the back-court. This puts Webber in more a finishing role, where I'm not necessarily sold he's any better than Gasol in that regard.

*Also worth noting that in 2005, Webber was putting up roughly 21/10/6 on 45% through 40 games for the Kings. He was then traded to the Sixers mid-way, and averaged 16/8 on 39% having to play more a finishing role next to Iverson on the perimeter.

2.) Inefficiency
Why I say that he's not got a huge edge over Gasol in a finishing role is also (in addition to the Sixers example) is that Chris Webber has never been an efficient player. He's a career .513 TS% player (.516 in chosen season), while shooting 38% in the post-season with a .427 TS% (!). In comparison sake, Pau Gasol in his chosen season shoots a .617 TS% with a .622 TS% in the post season en route to a Lakers championship. (!) Gasol, by percentage is a better mid-range shooter, and finisher around the rim. Considering their roles for the team are similar, I seriously wouldn't put too much stock into Webber's higher volume scoring #'s - if he's scoring more than Gasol, it's because he's taking considerably more shots [which we'll address later in the shot selection comparison].

It's also worth mentioning that Wade and Webber despite being a "big/small" share a lot of similar spots on the floor, mainly speaking, 20 feet and in. That shouldn't affect things too much, but in comparison with the spacing that's on my team, it's considerably worse.

Overall, Webber is a more talented player with more gaudier stats. But, his main advantages are in his passing game, and overall volume scoring. But, those two advantages will be negated to an extent because Webber will not be initiating the offense, nor be getting 23 shot attempts per game, in which his efficiency (or lack thereof) will be more heavily scrutinized, especially in a playoff setting where Webber seemingly dropped off in every statistical category imaginable. In the same role as a finisher as Gasol, Pau will score MUCH more efficiently, and rebound at a similar rate.

Bottom line is there's much more than "the 27 to 19" edge that Webber only has in volume scoring. Webber's advantages will be negated, while Gasol's strengths are huge edges (efficiency) over his counterpart; which ultimately being thrust into the same role will not be a deciding factor in the outcome of this series, as both will have big series.

*It's also worth noting, as BI alludes to as well, Gasol's size has affected opposing PF's in the past. In 2008, in the 2nd round, Carlos Boozer only shot 43% against the Los Angeles Lakers (keep in mind, this season was WITHOUT Bynum, and Radman as the other starter). In the WCF, Gasol also did a terrific job on Duncan limiting him to sub 45% shooting as well. And in the Finals, against Garnett (who did 20/10 in that post-season); he only shot 43% against Gasol as well. Considering, Webber shoots this percentage nearly on a regular basis (and even worse in a playoff setting), we're confident Gasol can limit his efficiency, while Gasol can get his against Webber who was an average defender at best.

Team Construction/Offense v. Team A's defense
I'd like to first say that I don't think BI's team construction is poor, it's good, but it certainly has its flaws. Mainly being, the question of if Arenas is the right guard to put next to Wade. Similarly, something I don't think is being mentioned is, to an even greater extent is Marbury off the bench. Next to Wade, you'd ideally like to have an off the ball shooter that can D up, shoot, and make the play if needed. Marbury, and Arenas have that "star" mentality which often thrust them into roles where they dominated the ball -- in this case, Wade is, and rightfully so, that guy. These aren't exactly guys that will move off the ball and spot up in the mold of a Ray Allen or Reggie Miller. Even Jalen Rose was a guy that liked the ball in the low block to back down and use his underrated mid-range game to score (though, he should fit fine).

And, Arenas/Jones being listed as "shooters" are questionable at best. They're solid, but I have to question if they deliver the consistency from the outside that's needed around both Wade and Webber. 37% is solid, but hardly elite, or even very good. For comparisons sake:

Ginobili, Billups, and Peja all shoot over 40% from distance with a high volume of makes from the outside. All of them have the ability to play either off or on the ball, which make them so dangerous, especially with Shaq in the game drawing all the attention. Prince and Christie off the bench provide decent three point threats, while shot attempts don't really matter to them. The same thing with a guy like Aldridge or Clifford Robinson that can stretch the floor for a big man, and provide either nice size, or good defense (from Uncle Cliffy).

At some point, teams are going to run out of shot attempts, and roles will be suffered. I think the beauty of my teams construction is that no one has to sacrifice their game to a large extent to really produce. Last year, the Golden State Warriors led the NBA in shot attempts per game (roughly 85 shots per game). We'd figure the # in these "all-star" sort games to be a little higher, but not too much higher considering the Warriors were a top 5 team in pace.

Team A
The starting lineup takes 89.2 shot attempts per game. (4 shot attempts higher than highest)
As a result, their raw PPG would yield (rounded): 116 PPG.

My Team
The starting lineup takes 76.9 shot attempts per game. (8 shot attempts less than highest)
As a result, their raw PPG would yield (rounded): 112 PPG.
Prince's shot attempts (12.2) to our team to equal BI's: 126 PPG.


That's a huge difference, and explained through the efficiency and volume of our three point makes. We're more efficient at every position, and have an overwhelming edge with Shaq in the paint kicking out to our dead eye shooters. Again, Billups, Ginobili, Peja and Gasol have a TS% that's GREATER than 60% (ironically enough, Shaq is our lowest).

BI's team on the other hand has no one above a 58% TS in the starting lineup (including the very inefficient Webber), and considering their volume as a team isn't greater, then our offense is much more potent both in volume and scoring.

And I don't see the defense that will stop our team offensively, Arenas wasn't a good defender, Eddie Jones was a SG and was a forgotten, replaceable player (seriously, traded from Lakers, then from Heat, and both win championships the next season; not really indicating that EJ was some sort of negative, but indicating that he could be replaced with other players, and teams didn't often miss his apparent defense or shooting); he'll be asked to chase Peja around all series. Then Gasol should get his against Webber, and Shaq has been proven to have demolished Mutombo on the biggest stage in his chosen season. Off the bench, Marbury nor Rose were known for their defense, Horford was/is solid, while Okur was below average as well. Wade should make Ginobili work; no doubt about that, but here are Ginobili's #'s against Wade/Heat (both hit their prime in '05, so we should get an accurate reading):

18.4 PPG, on .514 from the field (11 GAMES)

I just don't see any sort of personnel that can stop our offense, and given that Shaq will dominate, along with our perimeter with much greater efficiency and volume, our offensive edge in this series is clearly noticeable.

*It's also worth noting, outside of efficiency in shooting #'s, our team is MUCH more efficient in taking care of the ball. Wade and Arenas turned the ball over 3+ times per game, and figure NO one on our team averaged three turnovers per game, we should take care of the ball better as well to shooting much better as well.

Our defense v. Team A's offense.
On our team, we only have person on our roster who could be classified as a below average defender, everyone else would be considered well above average, and Shaq would be labeled as dominant (Billups is a good team defender, All-NBA, Ginobili was above average; Gasol as highlighted uses his size well defensively and has been apart of very good defensive teams, with terrific flexibility off the bench with All-NBA defenders in Christie, Prince, and Robinson). That one weak defender is Peja Stojakovic, and this is the perfect series for him, as he can be easily masked against Eddie Jones who was a spot up shooter, and wasn't a large threat to do anything more than that.

We're not stopping Wade. He's a superstar, and he'll put up a superstar effort, but at the very least, we have bodies to throw at him in Christie, Prince, and Ginobili; even Billups at times. The same will be said against Arenas. EJ is a spot up shooter, and Mutombo wasn't a huge threat to beat you. We've gone over the Webber matchup in great detail, and don't feel the need to compound on that anymore. Ultimately, we have the versatility to at least try to cover BI's guys from completely exploding, while the same can't be said against my team. And we also feel, because of the lack of efficiency, and potential team fit, that BI's team takes away some of it's own strengths, mainly Webber's high post passing with the inclusion of Arenas on the team. There's an overall lack of true cohesion which could mess up of the offensive harmony of the team (with slight spacing issues, and a potential overabundance to turn the ball over). Shaq also has the ability to roam at times (though not to much), considering we're not afraid of Deke killing us offensively. This only makes our defense stronger as well; Deke does not have this luxury because well, he'll be guarding Shaq, and that overall reduces BI's defense as well.

OTHER NOTE(S)
- Worth mentioning, Shaq also got the best of Deke on the boards in the '01 Finals (16 to 12). Gasol and Webber have nearly identical TRB%. Peja is a better rebounder at the 3, since EJ is really a 2. Ginobili has a 2% TRB edge over Wade, but I'd call them nearly equal, while Billups has a slight edge over Arenas. As an overall sum of parts, our rebounding is very comparable, won't determine the series, but a slight edge to our team.

Conclusion
Overall, BI has built a terrific team, but we're better both offensively and defensively by a good margin, and have the better matchups to exploit, while believe BI can't do the same to our team. Shaq will dominate the series to a much greater extent than Wade will and we're much more efficient in both shooting, and taking care of the ball. The team fit is better, and our rebounding is comparable, if not a slight edge for our team; ultimately, I don't see what will shift the grounds (or in another words, what advantage BI has) that will stop our team. For those reasons, we should come out on top in a hard fought series.

Thanks

[TMACFORMVP]

and...

Team C
[PG] - '09 Chris Paul (38) - '00 Terrell Brandon (10)
[SG] - '09 Brandon Roy (38) - '02 Michael Jordan (10)
[SF] - '09 Danny Granger (36) - '06 Boris Diaw (12)
[PF] - '04 Kevin Garnett (40) - '09 Nene Hilario (8)
[Cc] - '08 Chris Kaman (32) - '09 Nene Hilario (16)


Writeup for Team C

Individual talent is one thing (we have more than the opponent, by the way) but what's more important is how it will work in a game situation. If you count hardware, we've got it.

Also, don't be confused by Snake's rotations. Hinrich is playing the a little more than half of the point guard minutes, so it's not James vs Paul. Plus, the only real backup big is Kurt Thomas for Snake, and he's backing up Theo Ratliff.

Offensive Gameplan:

-Spread the floor
to
-Pick and-roll
-Force rotations
-Get to the line
-Get second chance points

We have the luxury of having 3 guys who can really light it up from anywhere on the court. The shooting and scoring ability of our backcourt and the tremendous pick-setting abilities gives the team every dimension and option to score. We get to the line and convert at a high rate. Snake's team will have to cover every man (there's no sagging off Kaman, you need a body on him even as 5th option) and rotate to cover absolutely everybody, something that is difficult enough to do with three long-range/slashing threats and mobile bigs.

Kevin Garnett will key the offense, as he has great career performances against Jermaine O'Neal, a good help defender who lacks the mobility to keep up with Garnett. The Big Ticket's 24-14-5-2-1.5 is an example of his dominance, and he will tear apart one-on-one defense, and if he gets doubled, he will find the open man with speedy decision-making, and you can't afford to leave anyone else open. Paul is the best ball-handler on the court, and running the pick-and-roll with Garnett makes this perhaps the most dangerous and quick pick-and-roll conceivable. Try and help off your man against one of these guys getting to the basket and you leave a man open that either of these guys is going to see and get the ball to. Kaman is a good pick-and-roll player as well as a decent passer out of the post.

Another facet is the foul-drawing. If Snake's guys are constantly coming over to help and get swats, then the whistle is going to blow. Our team shoots better than 80% from the line, depending on who's drawing the fouls, and the worst shooter, Kaman, still nails more than 76%.

Another angle is the offensive rebounding. JO barely reaches double-figure rebounding while Ratliff is a joke. Garnett and Kaman are the best rebounders on the floor, and they are also intense rebounders who will hustle and get the team second chance opportunities, which allows the cycle to continue.

And if for some reason all falls apart, Brandon Roy can create his own shot in one-on-one against T-Mac or Allan Houston. If you Kirilenko guards him, Granger will get open all day against the lazy off-the-ball defense of the backup wings.

Don't forget that on the bench we have a continuation of good pick-and-roll in Brandon and Nene, along with Jordan who doubles up Roy's role and Diaw who supplies a versatile swiss army knife of options to keep defenses honest.

Defensive Gameplan:

-Make them a jump-shooting team for 23 minutes, attack for 25
-Take advantage of positional imbalance
-Lock down the paint

The main strategy here is 2-3 zone. Paul and Roy up top supply the first line of pestering quickness. The high post is relatively open, as are the corners. In the paint, we unleash 6.5 blocks per game from our frontline of Granger, Garnett, and Kaman, swallowing up rebounds (again, O'Neal, Ratliff, Kirilenko, and Kurt Thomas who is the best rebounder playing the least amount of minutes isn't going to cut it). We don't expect James, T-Mac, and Kirilenko to punish us from the corners (James and T-Mac are most effective at the top, and not so much baseline), and we're okay with contested jumpers from the high post. With Paul and Roy up top, they can speed down the court after the bigs secure rebounds and get the fastbreak opportunities. We can get away with this because Theo Ratliff is essentially a non-factor (he makes Chris Kaman look like an all-star...which he is) and in their starting lineup, no one is available to counter effectively for 23 minutes.

If Hinrich is playing (which is 25 minutes) we can go into regular man. With Hinrich as point, Paul can really overwhelm the point of attack, and it's easier for Kaman to help off of Ratliff and Thomas than it is for either of them to help off of Kaman. Allan Houston is more of a one-trick pony than Granger, and defending him will be the same situation. Jermaine O'Neal is a black hole on offense, and Garnett will definitely take advantage. Remember that James and T-Mac would love to get their points inside, and as jumpshooters they are streaky. Over a 7-game series it's unsustainable, as history has shown.

Additional notes:

Our team is going to have much better leadership and motivation. Kevin Garnett is a champion because his energy makes everyone around him better. His presence raises the defensive effort on every possession. He is the heart and soul of the team. He is the smartest player on the court and the most intense player. Brandon Roy is a secondary leader and Danny Granger gets to flourish in a secondary role. Our team has the intangibles, the advantage inside, balance all over the court, and 4 guys who can drop 20 ppg with Michael Jordan supplying veteran wisdom off then bench (as well as 20 ppg himself).

versus

Team D
[PG] - '09 LeBron James (23) - '07 Kirk Hinrich (25)
[SG] - '03 Tracy McGrady (23) - '03 Allan Houston (25)
[SF] - '06 Andrei Kirilenko (20) - '03 Tracy McGrady (15) - '09 LeBron James (13)
[PF] - '03 Jermaine O'neal (34) - '06 Andrei Kirilenko (14)
[Cc] - '01 Theo Ratliff (25) - '05 Kurt Thomas (22) - '03 Jermaine O'neal (1)

Writeup for Team D

Defense: Simply put, this team boasts one of the most frightening defensive outfits in the entire league. Ratliff, O'Neal, James, and Kirilenko were all players that took their defenses to extremely high levels in their chosen years, and at his peak Tracy McGrady was by no means a weak defensive player either. Another thing that makes my team alarming on defense is it's length, which it achieves without sacrificing quickness. Lebron James has enough speed to give Chris Paul problems, and his strength and reach will wear on Paul over the course of a long series. He struggled against physical point guards like Chauncey Billups and Deron Williams, and Lebron will present a similar challenge. Tracy McGrady also presents a challenge for Brandon Roy with his size, and Jermaine O'Neal gives KG a player of similar size and amble defensive ability to contend with him. Ratliff, of course, anchored very effective team defenses in Philadelphia in the selected year, and he only makes my team tougher to score against.

I'm not usually one to harp on shot blocking as a huge factor, but in this particular instance I believe my team is effective enough in this regard that it will have a major impact on the series. Both Ratliff and Kirilenko average over 3 blocks per game in their selected seasons, and Jermaine O'Neal was also a shot blocking anchor at over two per game. Lebron James was also a very strong shot blocking force for a non-big. These blocked shots not only represent denied opportunities for our opponents but also potential fastbreak opportunities for my own team, and we have the players to exploit those with great effectiveness.

Generally speaking, with a lineup full of size, physicality, shot blocking, and genuine defensive ability will present a challenging matchup for Miller's team which, while balanced and skilled, doesn't really have that one dominant offensive player that is known for being able to transcend an opponent's defensive abilities. We expect to give Miller's team trouble at every turn with what we firmly believe to be among the best (possibly the best) defense in the game.

Offense: As usual, we expect our two superstar wings (who could easily be considered the two most potent offensive players in this series) to do much of the talking here. Unfortunately for Miller, his best perimeter defender is a 6'0'' point guard who won't be of much use in this particular matchup on the defensive end, where at best he'll be wasted on one of my taller shooters and at worst he'll be horribly mismatched onto one of my better offensive players. Granger was a solid defender in his own right, but the reality is that he has become somewhat overrated in that regard and his defense will be of relatively little import when faced with the task of guarding either Lebron or McGrady, who will be able to score very effectively against anyone Miller has to offer on the perimeter. Furthermore, we have elite shooting to bring off the bench in this matchup, enhancing our spacing even more effectively and giving us an added element of difficulty in our offense.

Guys like Jermaine O'Neal (who's efficiency notably goes up when paired with dominant offensive players) and Kurt Thomas provide important supporting roles in my offense as well. They are both big men with strong mid range jumpshots who will help draw opposing big players out of the paint and create even more space for the rest of my offense.

Generally speaking, given we've established that Granger's impact defensively will be fairly limited and Chris Paul is wasted due to the fact that there are no major players on my team at his size, the only defensive player on Miller's team I see having a particularly large impact on this series is Kevin Garnett, and against my powerful offense complete with superb star players a a well fitting supporting cast, I simply don't feel that will be enough to sufficiently limit me.

To summarize: My team boasts a much more powerful defensive outfit than my opponents, and I think that is evident both up front and (especially) out on the perimeter, complete with man defense, help defense, and a set of shotblockers that is quite simply very intimidating to go up against. Besides this, he doesn't have a player with the proven ability to take over a game offensively (at least not in the postseason). Furthermore, we have defense where we need it, with lengthy, fast, and troublesome defenders to go up against each of his offensive threats.

He, on the other had, doesn't have the right type of perimeter defense to be able to hold the line against the attack of Lebron James and Tracy McGrady. His only major claim defensively is Kevin Garnett, who while a great defensive player in his own right, simply didn't prove he alone was enough to limit a team with the types of tools my team has at its disposal.

I have a better defense and an offense that boasts possibly the two most potent players in the series (at worst two of the three) and stands a better chance at getting the job done. This should allow my team to carry the day against Miller's team, which is talented and built very well, but just doesn't have the right tools to take this matchup.

There were also rebuttals in this particular series, which I'll put in code.

Team D's Rebuttal

Code: Select all

We are willing to concede a rebounding advantage, but unfortunately for Miller it simply isn't going to be as large as he's imagining it for a number of reasons:

1) Rebounding at the 1-3 spots. Lebron James, Tracy McGrady, and Andrei Kirilenko are all outstanding rebounders at the perimeter and will help considerably to close the gap.

2) Kaman isn't as good a rebounder as one outlier season makes it seem. He rapidly fades into the background in that regard the moment another good rebounder (see Brand, Elton) arrives on the scene.

2) Regardless of any fancy tricks he may try with zones and other things (a flawed strategy given the failure of zones to stop players like Lebron and the general presence of players who can score at range on my team), he simply doesn't have the defensive personnel from top to bottom that my team does, and its frankly not close. What does this mean Re: rebounding? Well, it means he's simply not going to force as many misses as my team. I think I've established the power of my defense relative to the weakness of his (Kaman isn't great defensively, nor are Roy or Granger (both decent but not enough for their respective guarding assignments), and Paul, as we have said, will often be wasted on defense due to the size of my rotation), so I think that argumet speaks for itself.

All in all, the rebounding advantage he will enjoy exists, but its not large enough to make up for the fact that my offense stands a much better chance and being effective in the face of his defense than vice versa.

I also contest the notion that my team is "all about individual talent". I actually think my team fits together very harmoniously with an excellent mix of shooters, defenders, and versatile players that don't need the ball in their hands all placed around a pair of dominant players who's abilities offset each other very well.

My team is better defensively and more generally effective and versatile offensively, and unlike our opponent, has offensive players that have the proven ability to take over games even in the face of challenging defensive situations.

Team C's rebuttal

Code: Select all

I never said your team was all about individual talent.

You want takeover?

In 2009, my selected season for everybody relevant in this discussion, Granger is #2 in 4th quarter scoring, and Paul and Roy are 5th and 6th respectively. My 20 ppg scorers all step up in the 4th. James gets most of his points in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Paul and Roy are going to create on their own while Granger, who is assisted on more than half his shots (a testament to his off-the-ball clutch play) in the 4th will always be ready to drain the dagger 3.

Plus, takeover is overrated. The greatest takeover artist ever cannot beat a big man advantage.

Failure of zones against Lebron? Last time James was in a finals (2011) the old, defensively inferior to my team Dallas Mavericks threw in some zone and Lebron failed to take over the series. The Heat had some substantial players and some shooters off the bench as well.

And again, my offense will make your defense work harder than your offense will make my defense work. We can sit pretty in a 2-3 and let the perimeter guys heave jumpers while our offensive motion comes at you again and again and again. We'll have the second chance advantage, we'll have the spacing advantage, and we'll have the room to operate that your team won't unless Hinrich or Houston is in, greatly reducing the effectiveness of your team in exchange for some shooting. Thanks to a passing advantage, we actually hold more options on offense.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Team B over Team A

My initial thought when I see Team A is that this is a 3-star team, with each star needing the ball, and each having a track record of disappointment when they don't have the ball except possibly Wade. And unfortunately, since Wade is by far the best player, I don't see how it makes sense to have him be the one who sacrifices. From Team A's perspective, I'd probably end up starting Raja Bell over Arenas, and Horford over Webber. That's how big I think the issue is.

Now, that's far from a bad team. Wade, Jones, and Mutombo is a great defensive core by any sane standards, and getting Bell in there makes it all the more solid. The competition is just so rough though.

Team B's starting 5 is delicious. Basically, all but Shaq we know are capable of blending in with other great talent, each takes a very different role from each other, and of course, as much as I loathe Shaq, he's easily the best player in this series. This is one scary team.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Team C over Team D

So the first thing that comes to mind when comparing these two teams is that they are both essentially 2 man teams. Garnett & Paul, James & McGrady. Just right off the bat, that gives a pretty major advantage to Garnett & Paul. While James has the highest possible impact of the quarter, Garnett is the most capable of retaining superstar lift while re-molding his game around another teammate, and he's being paired with a point guard. While Paul will need to be ball dominant, his distributor nature means he as well is always looking to make use of talented teammates, and wow, Garnett sure is that. I'm inclined to agree that pick & roll could be amazing with them. James & McGrady, well you know the problem James & Wade had this year? Still applies with McGrady, and he's not as talented, not as tough, and not as mature of a leader.

I will say, I'm not in love with the rest of Team C's front court. Roy & Granger are both guys primarily known for their volume scoring put on a team where there are 2 superior scoring options. That's unfortunate. Now it's easy to see Granger thriving as a 3rd option hitting 3's with more room to breathe than ever before, but you can get someone who can approximate that role with better defense y'know?

Choice of Kaman is interesting as well. I'd probably bench him and play Nene instead - but then I'm actually a huge fan of Nene, particularly on a team where he can just be a super-talented role player.

And yeah generally, I think the defense of Team C is pretty questionable.

But as mentioned, there's a significant offensive problem with Team D, and now we've got to look at the nuances of their defense. Clearly this team was designed to have an awesome defense and I respect that quite a bit. I don't think though that putting 3 defenders primarily known for their shot blocking is going to have the effect the GM thinks though.

Let's remember that the Celtics led the league in DRtg a few years ago with below average blocks. Blocks aren't nearly as important as just playing good team defense. Now you can have a freelance big man help defender and have that be quite valuable to your team, but you're certainly not going to have 3 of those guys. Were I to have this collection of talent, I'd probably end up starting Kurt Thomas because I think his kind of smart big man team defense is that necessary for a team.

[lorak]

team B over team A.
team B have fantastic balance, players fit to each other, when team A have to many on ball players.

team D over team C.
closer matchup, but overall team D's defense is better, LJ+TMac+AK is scary defensive combo on the perimeter, length, quickness, size... everything.

[Doctor MJ]

btw, really appreciate the thoughts you guys put into this. I came in looking for weaknesses in the teams, but I know it's really not easy to build teams like this, and you putting in the effort for the matchup makes these leagues so cool.

[ElGee]

For me, I view these the same way I view a potential new season projection or a playoff series. That means, DESPITE what a team looks like on paper, it's important to understand how I think they will function. (For the record, I don't always get this right at the beginning of the year because of how complex the interaction can be -- which is why I think analyzing it is so important).

Team A's offensive identity has to be Dwyane Wade. He's probably a top-20 peak player all-time and someone who does it with the ball a lot who can create. Arenas isn't really a PG to me, but he can shoot and spread the floor. I'm not sure he'd want to. My guess is it would feel a little like this team had two combo guards powering the offense the way we see a lot of college teams.

But then what of Chris Webber? He's a great high post player. I think Arenas can work with him a little like Bibby did, but I don't consider Wade a monster off the ball. 01 Webber certainly has a post game, so they could find offense there. I don't like the bench though - Marbury is a flatter skill-curved player to me and even running stuff off Webber probably isn't going to top 1.10 or 1.12 pts per pos. Memo can spread the floor but then that's potential a suspect defensive/rebounding team.

Team B I'm more comfortable with playing like they do on paper, because every team prime Shaq played on deferred to his size, talent and personality. It's almost impossible not to. Gasol is a great high post player and passive personality who won't clash with that. Manu just pretty much does whatever is needed. Peja is going to space the floor like he has before, Dirk, Allen, Vlad Rad, etc. (all the shooters we keep seeing give huge boost). I think that team is set on offense. And defensively they have a twin-towers effort and Prince/Christie off the bench for matchups. I really like them as an all-around team.

So, I think that's a better team from the outset. If they meet, I think A has no answer for B's offense while B can throw Christie/Prince into the mix to disrupt Wade a little. Even so, I just think team B has an edge here that A can't do anything about.

[Doctor MJ]

because every team prime Shaq played on deferred to his size, talent and personality. It's almost impossible not to.

This is an interesting point. When we ran the first to projects like this back in '06, they were All-Time Leagues, and Shaq's team won both times. He didn't get drafted first, but there's something about the dude, that it's just so easy to see how teams would work well with him if he's 100% on.

[ElGee]

Team D jumps out to me defensively, and over the years when that's happened we've seen twin towers in SAS, Detroit's 04 defense, even Miami this year just on the perimeter. I think that's a stunning defensive team. Stunning.

On offense, they might run a little like the 09 or 10 Cavs with LBJ as "PG." I do see T-Mac and him as an MJ/Pip or Wade/LBJ dual system offense. I want Houston in the game with them a lot probably and at least JO gives them some deep post option.

Cleveland's 09 offense w LBJ was 1.16 pts/pos.
This year with Mia it was ~1.15.

Thomas can come in and hit the open jumper better than Ratliff (like Z) for spacing it out. A relentless of attack of T-Mac and LBJ with some of those players around will probably keep the unit in that range (1.15) at WORSE. Defensively, I mean, it's still just scary even when they swap in some bench pieces.

The question then is if this matchup is particularly bad for them.

I'd probably play Nene more with KG. If they give the ball to Chris Paul a LOT and keep KG in the high post for passing, shooting and PnR, I can see a really successful offense. I'm not sure it could disrupted too much by the defense of C because of the nature of such offense. THen again, they have so many defensive weapons that if they could someone prevent Paul from doing EVERYTHING it might but a dent in team C's efficiency.

I kind of hate team C's bench though, and that's an issue. Strikes me as a series Danny Granger would be totally lost in. He's going to be BBQ'd and have to stay out of foul trouble just to have a shot of providing good spacing.shooting on offense. Then the bench is a little cringe-worthy to me for this level/style of game.

I look to 08 Spurs vs. NOH, where despite good interior D and a wing stopper (Bowen) Paul still did his thing with West and the shooting of Peja. Then again, the final ORtg for the series was 1.07 for NOH and it grew worse as the series unfolded. Why? After G2 Peja hit 4 3's for the series (16 ppg, 44% 3pt on season). So if Team D takes away the 3-point line/the Granger roll, I wonder how high C can get that offense.

The X-factor is the guy I haven't really mentioned, peak Garnett, who has one of the sacred peaks (as does James). He did absolutely everything then, and I wonder two things

(a) how good could he make the defense/rebounding
(b) how much would he "fill in" on offense.

I say "fill in" because of his diverse talent you can let Paul run the show -- one of the GOAT PGs and PnR players at peak -- and take advantage of him having the Paul and no one on the other side to really slow him, while having KG provide post offense, PnR offense, high post offense, high post facilitation, etc.

I'm going to say it's a close series and depth plays a role in this matchup and give a slight edge to team D. Tough to call though.

[ElGee]

because every team prime Shaq played on deferred to his size, talent and personality. It's almost impossible not to.

This is an interesting point. When we ran the first to projects like this back in '06, they were All-Time Leagues, and Shaq's team won both times. He didn't get drafted first, but there's something about the dude, that it's just so easy to see how teams would work well with him if he's 100% on.

The Lakers went from 4 All-Stars to 2+ (Rice+Kobe) in 2000 and improved by having the TPO and clearly defined roles. Then, in 01 you could argue they were better with just Shaq + Kobe and role players.

Why? To me, Phil just said run the TPO through Shaq, make sure there are good role players and the ball keeps moving, and that's pretty much it. I mean, it's as simple as that to get a top offense with prime Shaq because we've never really seen a matchup that slows him down (you need two giant bigs like Rob-Duncan or Dale Dave-Sabonis to have a shot).

(I also love the TPO)

[TMACFORMVP]

Thanks for the vote guys, couldn't really ask for better posters to give their input.

@Doc, yeah, I think Shaq/Hakeem sort are so successful in ATL's are because they're generally picked after Russell, Wilt, Kareem, and guys like Bird, Magic, and Jordan. And when we're considering peak, there's still a healthy debate between Shaq/Hakeem and even those at the top (depending on stipulations of the game, one year peak vs. five year peak is obviously an entirely different story). Then consider, they're likely to get more a superstar compliment next to Shaq/Hakeem on the snake back, then all of a sudden, the "feel" of the duo would seem greater than even a Russell/late second round draft pick. Though it still sets up for an obviously interesting matchup depending on the rest of the team makeup.