DavidStern wrote:AussieBuck wrote:If Harden wasn't getting fouled going to the bucket he'd have a an assload more layups. Not sure I get the FT arguments about him.
The thing is he relies too much on FTs. In playoffs, when he wouldn't get calls so easily and when smart teams would trap him badly (as Heat and Thunder showed multiple times) that would be big issue. And he's .507 eFG% player. Which still is very good for a guard, but obviously not as impressive as .600 TS% and IMO his true value as a scorer is better described by eFG, because after all only playoffs matter.
This is an important point.
Historically, guys who relied on initiating contact for "soft fouls" to create an absurd FTA/FGA ratio (over .5) and had holes in their shot making ability have a tough time scoring consistently in the playoffs. Harden could be headed down the same road as of right now, though he is a young player who has the skillset to greatly improve his shot making ability over time. He's going to get calls no matter what, he has long arms, amazing at getting in the lane and drawing contact, but those calls don't come as predictably in the playoffs. Rockets are also basically playing a D'Antoni type system, super fast pace (faster than '05 Suns), lot of possessions where the defense isn't set, lot of leak out and open court scoring opportunities, lot of open space in the offense with a premium on shooting/spacing and that fits really well with Harden's game, so I'd be careful of his raw stats and have the big picture in mind.
As of right now, I can see him being very inconsistent in the playoffs, might even get outright exposed if he runs into the wrong matchup. To be clear, I'm not questioning Harden as a star, I have him as a top 5 player so far (but the superstar crop after the top 3 is very unimpressive this year), and he still has lot of room for improvment. He deserves a lot of praise for what he's doing, he's shown himself to be a star first option on a playoff team, but we shouldn't overlook what are some pretty obvious concerns with his game, especially now since he's starting to get that superstar status.
Interested to see him play against the Celtics tonight. Games against these type of slower tempo, smart defensive teams are what will reveal to me if Harden is improving on that front. Dude can kill like 75% of the league no problem, but I want to see more consistency against the top tier. This is mainly a concern with his scoring though, he is good/smart at moving the ball and running the offense to have decent games while not necessarily scoring well (an important superstar trait).