RealGM 50 Highest Peaks Project Thread

[colts18]

Unrelated to the current discussion, question directed to colts18:

How did you calculate standard deviation for MOV in the 11th highest peak thread? You said you were calculating it w.r.t. the mean of the other teams. Does that mean you calculate the average MOV of the other 29 teams, calculate out the variance of team 1's MOV w.r.t. the mean and then find out the standard deviation via square root?

I believe you are referring to the Walton discussion.

I replaced the Blazers MOV with the MOV with Walton in, then I calculated how many SD they were from the league mean MOV (slightly above 0.00). Based on that I got around a 2.7 SD for the Walton Blazers.

[ardee]

Unrelated to the current discussion, question directed to colts18:

How did you calculate standard deviation for MOV in the 11th highest peak thread? You said you were calculating it w.r.t. the mean of the other teams. Does that mean you calculate the average MOV of the other 29 teams, calculate out the variance of team 1's MOV w.r.t. the mean and then find out the standard deviation via square root?

I believe you are referring to the Walton discussion.

I replaced the Blazers MOV with the MOV with Walton in, then I calculated how many SD they were from the league mean MOV (slightly above 0.00). Based on that I got around a 2.7 SD for the Walton Blazers.

So the average MOV of the league is always 0 right? The Blazers' MOV with Walton in '78 was +10, so to figure out the average MOV of the other 21 teams it would be -10/21.

Variance would be |x-mean|, giving us something like 10.46, the square root of which is 3.23?

Obviously that's different from your answer. Sorry to be a pain but could you walk me through how you arrived at that number? I'm just curious because I was always fascinated by Walton's in/out impact, and if his team was actually better then the '96 freaking Bulls in some form of measure, I'd be interested to know how haha.

[colts18]

So the average MOV of the league is always 0 right? The Blazers' MOV with Walton in '78 was +10, so to figure out the average MOV of the other 21 teams it would be -10/21.

Variance would be |x-mean|, giving us something like 10.46, the square root of which is 3.23?

Obviously that's different from your answer. Sorry to be a pain but could you walk me through how you arrived at that number? I'm just curious because I was always fascinated by Walton's in/out impact, and if his team was actually better then the '96 freaking Bulls in some form of measure, I'd be interested to know how haha.

Yeah the league average MOV is always 0 but for my calculations it was slightly above 0 since I just replaced the Blazers numbers with Walton's full season numbers. I wasn't going to spend the time to make the
adjustments to make the league average 0.

I replaced the Blazers 5.59 MOV with the +8.4 they had with Walton

Rk Team MOV ▾
1 Portland Trail Blazers* 8.4
2 Denver Nuggets* 5.22
3 Philadelphia 76ers* 3.94
4 Golden State Warriors* 3.22
5 Los Angeles Lakers* 2.72
6 Houston Rockets* 1.61
7 Cleveland Cavaliers* 1.12
8 Washington Bullets* 1.02
9 Chicago Bulls* 0.9
10 Kansas City Kings 0.88
11 Phoenix Suns 0.73
12 San Antonio Spurs* 0.61
13 New York Knicks -0.01
14 Detroit Pistons* -1.04
15 Seattle SuperSonics -1.55
16 Indiana Pacers -1.77
17 Boston Celtics* -1.98
18 New Orleans Jazz -2.82
19 Milwaukee Bucks -3.12
20 Atlanta Hawks -4.06
21 Buffalo Braves -4.44
22 New York Nets -6.78


league average MOV 0.13
Standard Deviation 3.44
Blazers minus League Average 8.27
Z score with Walton 2.40

[Doctor MJ]

Alright folks, so what I'm seeing is no immediate signs that the project is going to come back to life.

On the other hand, a 35 project just lacks any kind of credibility, so I don't see any benefit to giving up just yet. Here's what I'm planning at the moment:

We're going to go to 40.

We're going to do a thread per week.

When we near 40 I'll ask people's thoughts. If there isn't more pull to go on, we'll stop it at 40.

Re: The idea of you guys sending me a list. Changing up voting methods so drastically at this point to me makes the list meaningless. It's quite possible we'll do the next project in such a less time-intensive manner, but this one, for better or worse, will continue as is for at least 5 more threads.

C'mon guys, let's finish this up in a solid manner.

[ardee]

Would anyone be interested in the idea of submitting a ballot with your top 20, 30 or 40, how many ever, at the end of the project, and then just totaling the results to see how they contrast the actual list? Would be a fun exercise IMO, would show how much we learnt.

[lorak]

On the other hand, a 35 project just lacks any kind of credibility, so I don't see any benefit to giving up just yet. Here's what I'm planning at the moment:

We're going to go to 40.

Really? What's the difference between 35 and 40?

Besides, project lost credibility when Cowens won with 2 votes ;/

Would anyone be interested in the idea of submitting a ballot with your top 20, 30 or 40, how many ever, at the end of the project, and then just totaling the results to see how they contrast the actual list? Would be a fun exercise IMO, would show how much we learnt.

Sure, that would be great.

[ardee]

Ok, so here's a top 25 I think I can say I have a decent amount of confidence in. Following ElGee's example a few pages ago, I'm also grading the players on how certain I am of their placements, 1 being confused and 5 being absolutely sure. Also separated them into tiers.

1. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain (5)
2. 1991 Michael Jordan (4)
3. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal (5)

4. 1987 Magic Johnson (3)
5. 1986 Larry Bird (3)
6. 1995 Hakeem Olajuwon (5)

7. 2009 LeBron James (5)
8. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (3)
9. 1965 Bill Russell (2)
10. 2003 Tim Duncan (5)

11. 1977 Bill Walton (5)
12. 2004 Kevin Garnett (4)
13. 1976 Julius Erving (2)

14. 2008 Kobe Bryant (5)
15. 1964 Oscar Robertson (4)
16. 2009 Dwyane Wade (4)
17. 1966 Jerry West (4)

18. 2007 Steve Nash (5)
19. 1993 Charles Barkley (3)
20. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (3)
21. 2008 Chris Paul (3)

22. 1983 Moses Malone (1)
23. 1990 Patrick Ewing (3)
24. 1994 David Robinson (3)
25. 1994 Scottie Pippen (5)

[ardee]

Anyone else have a ballot?

[kaima]

Steve Nash with a peak higher than Barkley, Malone, Malone, Baylor, Paul, Stockton, Thomas, etc, etc.

Well, it's fair to say that RealGM's regulars have surpassed even my expectations so far as comically overrating Steve Nash.

Entertaining project, but it's easy to see where its peak value was by that same measure. Just coasting from here.

[ElGee]

Anyone else have a ballot?

Yes -- and I was going to ask everyone this question. I believe it has value two-fold:

(1) If Doc, realbig3, fatal, Mufasa, drza, Regulat8r, raven, Penbeast, etc all submit a ballot, we can see the biases based on the current voting method. To me, this is the most interesting and valuable thing from a voting/results perspective.

(2) It forces people to make a ballot, which can be a very good thing. I'll post my top-40 below in an edit.

Rank Year SRS Impact Portability Health Player

SACRED PEAKS
1 1990 9.0 AVG 100% Jordan
2 2000 9.0 AVG 100% Shaq
3 1986 8.0 HIGH 100% Bird
4 1967 8.0 AVG 100% Chamberlain
5 2012 8.0 AVG 90% LBJ
6 1987 7.5 AVG 100% Magic
7 1993 7.5 HIGH 100% Olajuwon
8 1962 8.0 HIGH 100% Russell
9 2002 7.5 HIGH 100% Duncan
10 2004 7.5 HIGH 100% KG
11 1977 8.0 HIGH 80% Walton

GATEKEEPERS
12 1977 7.0 AVG 100% Kareem
13 1976 7.0 AVG 100% Erving

ALMOST SACRED
14 1994 6.5 HIGH 100% Robinson
15 2009 6.5 AVG 100% Wade
16 1968 6.5 HIGH 60% West
17 1990 6.0 HIGH 100% Barkley
18 1964 6.0 HIGH 100% Oscar
19 2008 6.0 AVG 100% Kobe
20 2008 6.0 AVG 100% Paul
21 1992 6.0 AVG 100% Malone
22 2007 6.0 AVG 90% Nash
23 2006 5.5 AVG 100% Dirk
24 1990 5.5 AVG 100% Ewing
25 1982 5.5 AVG 100% Moses
26 2003 6.0 AVG 90% McGrady

THE REST
27 2011 5.0 HIGH 100% Howard
28 1991 5.0 HIGH 100% Pippen
29 2012 5.0 HIGH 100% Durant
30 1996 5.0 HIGH 100% Penny
31 1975 5.5 AVG 100% Barry
32 1987 5.0 AVG 90% McHale
33 1971 5.0 AVG 100% Frazier
34 1967 5.0 AVG 80% Thurmond
35 1975 4.5 HIGH 100% Gilmore
36 2006 4.0 HIGH 100% Pierce
37 1997 5.0 LOW 100% Hill
38 2000 4.0 HIGH 100% Mourning
39 1984 4.5 LOW 90% King
40 1985 4.0 AVG 100% Thomas

**Note -- multiple years may qualify for the same player -- in that case, the first occurrence was selected

[therealbig3]

I was going to iron out my top 50 as the project went on, but what I have so far:

1. 91 Michael Jordan
2. 00 Shaquille O'Neal
3. 65 Bill Russell
4. 12 LeBron James
5. 86 Larry Bird
6. 87 Magic Johnson
7. 67 Wilt Chamberlain
8. 77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
9. 03 Tim Duncan
10. 93 Hakeem Olajuwon
11. 04 Kevin Garnett
12. 77 Bill Walton
13. 76 Julius Erving
14. 64 Oscar Robertson
15. 03 Tracy McGrady
16. 09 Dwyane Wade
17. 08 Kobe Bryant
18. 11 Dirk Nowitzki
19. 68 Jerry West
20. 95 David Robinson
21. 05 Steve Nash
22. 08 Chris Paul
23. 93 Charles Barkley
24. 98 Karl Malone
25. 90 Patrick Ewing
26. 83 Moses Malone
27. 95 Scottie Pippen
28. 96 Penny Hardaway
29. 87 Kevin McHale
30. 11 Dwight Howard
31. 75 Rick Barry
32. 12 Kevin Durant
33. 72 Walt Frazier
34. 90 Kevin Johnson
35. 00 Alonzo Mourning
36. 92 Clyde Drexler
37. Bob Pettit (not sure which year)
38. Isiah Thomas (not sure which year)
39. 75 Bob McAdoo
40. 08 Paul Pierce


A rough list, especially when you go further down...there's so many players that have an argument later on.

[ardee]

Steve Nash with a peak higher than Barkley, Malone, Malone, Baylor, Paul, Stockton, Thomas, etc, etc.

Well, it's fair to say that RealGM's regulars have surpassed even my expectations so far as comically overrating Steve Nash.

Entertaining project, but it's easy to see where its peak value was by that same measure. Just coasting from here.

Do you understand what Steve Nash does for a team?

[ardee]

Anyone else have a ballot?

Yes -- and I was going to ask everyone this question. I believe it has value two-fold:

(1) If Doc, realbig3, fatal, Mufasa, drza, Regulat8r, raven, Penbeast, etc all submit a ballot, we can see the biases based on the current voting method. To me, this is the most interesting and valuable thing from a voting/results perspective.

(2) It forces people to make a ballot, which can be a very good thing. I'll post my top-40 below in an edit.

Rank Year SRS Impact Portability Health Player

SACRED PEAKS
1 1990 9.0 AVG 100% Jordan
2 2000 9.0 AVG 100% Shaq
3 1986 8.0 HIGH 100% Bird
4 1967 8.0 AVG 100% Chamberlain
5 2012 8.0 AVG 90% LBJ
6 1987 7.5 AVG 100% Magic
7 1993 7.5 HIGH 100% Olajuwon
8 1962 8.0 HIGH 100% Russell
9 2002 7.5 HIGH 100% Duncan
10 2004 7.5 HIGH 100% KG
11 1977 8.0 HIGH 80% Walton

GATEKEEPERS
12 1977 7.0 AVG 100% Kareem
13 1976 7.0 AVG 100% Erving

ALMOST SACRED
14 1994 6.5 HIGH 100% Robinson
15 2009 6.5 AVG 100% Wade
16 1968 6.5 HIGH 60% West
17 1990 6.0 HIGH 100% Barkley
18 1964 6.0 HIGH 100% Oscar
19 2008 6.0 AVG 100% Kobe
20 2008 6.0 AVG 100% Paul
21 1992 6.0 AVG 100% Malone
22 2007 6.0 AVG 90% Nash
23 2006 5.5 AVG 100% Dirk
24 1990 5.5 AVG 100% Ewing
25 1982 5.5 AVG 100% Moses
26 2003 6.0 AVG 90% McGrady

THE REST
27 2011 5.0 HIGH 100% Howard
28 1991 5.0 HIGH 100% Pippen
29 2012 5.0 HIGH 100% Durant
30 1996 5.0 HIGH 100% Penny
31 1975 5.5 AVG 100% Barry
32 1987 5.0 AVG 90% McHale
33 1971 5.0 AVG 100% Frazier
34 1967 5.0 AVG 80% Thurmond
35 1975 4.5 HIGH 100% Gilmore
36 2006 4.0 HIGH 100% Pierce
37 1997 5.0 LOW 100% Hill
38 2000 4.0 HIGH 100% Mourning
39 1984 4.5 LOW 90% King
40 1985 4.0 AVG 100% Thomas

**Note -- multiple years may qualify for the same player -- in that case, the first occurrence was selected

Just out of curiosity, did you mean for that to be 1990 over 1991 Jordan? I can definitely see the argument, 1990 Jordan was INSANE in the postseason (43-8-7 against the Sixers?!), but since portability is a big part of your evaluation here, you might want to consider that 1991 MJ was ridiculous off-ball and as a playmaker.

And btw, I remember you being pretty high on Duncan in the beginning of the project? You ranked him 4th at one point IIRC. If I may ask, what changed?

[ardee]

I'm in the process of prepping mine right now... It's funny how much it changes practically every week.

Positvity, Doctor MJ, bastillion, anyone else?

[lorak]

Here's JordanBulls list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... eason.html

[fatal9]

Posting my top 50, it's not set it stone or anything, always receptive to new arguments. The "+" rating is just my personal summation of a player's offensive impact/ability, defensive impact, and intangibles (different caps for each). Added it to show which players I see around the same level. Like others have mentioned, not a fan of naked lists because don't get a chance to explain why a certain year is picked or why a certain player is ranked so high/low.

1. '91 MJ +9.5
2. '93 Hakeem +9
3. '00 Shaq +9
4. '77 KAJ +8
5. '12 LeBron +8
6. '86 Bird +8
7. '87 Magic +8
8. '03 Duncan +8
9. '04 KG +7.5
10. '77 Walton +7.5
11. '62 Russell +7.5
12. '67 Wilt +7
13. '09 Wade +6.5
14. '64 Oscar +6.5
15. '08 Kobe +6.5
16. '76 Dr. J +6.5
17. '90 Ewing +6.5
18. '95 D-Rob +6.5
19. '70 West +6.5
20. '11 Dirk +6
21. '07 Nash +6
22. '03 T-Mac +6
23. '09 Paul +6
24. '93 Barkley +6
25. '98 Malone +6
26. '87 McHale +5.5
27. '12 Durant +5.5
28. '11 Howard +5.5
29. '83 Moses +5.5
30. '94 Pippen +5.5
31. '75 Barry +5.5
32. '96 Penny +5.5
33. '72 Frazier +5
34. '00 Zo +5
35. '06 Pierce +5
36. '74 Lanier +5
37. '76 Cowens +5
38. '92 Drexler +5
39. '00 Hill +5
40. '59 Pettit +5
41. '03 Kidd +5
42. '88 Isiah +5
43. '92 Price +5
44. '71 Thurmond +5
45. '76 McAdoo +4.5
46. '07 Manu +4.5
47. '01 Vince +4.5
48. '96 Payton +4.5
49. '70 Reed +4.5
50. '92 Stockton +4.5 (or KJ)

There are a couple of players who could be on here but I'm not really comfortable ranking yet. Even guys like McAdoo and Pettit, despite throwing them on here, I still don't feel I have a good grasp of their game and team situation.

Lately, I've been more and more curious about Shaq's playoff defense. I haven't revisited some of the series from his absolute peak in a long time but it's interesting to me how poorly his teams perform/fall-off on defense in the playoffs . Are his team defensive weaknesses being strategically exploited by good teams (even in years Shaq is "trying" on D)?

[Dr Positivity]

My top 25 from a little while ago http://asubstituteforwar.com/2012/10/08 ... -all-time/

1. Wilt 67
2. Jordan 91
3. Hakeem 95
4. Shaq 00
5. Kareem 77
6. Duncan 03
7. Walton 77
8. KG 04
9. Lebron 12
10. Russell 65
11. Bird 86
12. Magic 87
13. Oscar 63
14. Dirk 11
15. Nash 05
16. Paul 08
17. Tmac 03
18. Wade 10
19. Kobe 09
20. West 66
21. Ewing 90
22. Barkley 93
23. Robinson 95
24. Erving 80
25. Moses 83

[ardee]

Ok, wow, maybe I need to rewatch some '93 Hakeem games. Does anyone have a link to the 30-20-7 Clippers game?

[fatal9]

Ok, wow, maybe I need to rewatch some '93 Hakeem games. Does anyone have a link to the 30-20-7 Clippers game?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvo-Lmx-UFk

[ElGee]

Anyone else have a ballot?

Yes -- and I was going to ask everyone this question. I believe it has value two-fold:

(1) If Doc, realbig3, fatal, Mufasa, drza, Regulat8r, raven, Penbeast, etc all submit a ballot, we can see the biases based on the current voting method. To me, this is the most interesting and valuable thing from a voting/results perspective.

(2) It forces people to make a ballot, which can be a very good thing. I'll post my top-40 below in an edit.

Rank Year SRS Impact Portability Health Player

SACRED PEAKS
1 1990 9.0 AVG 100% Jordan
2 2000 9.0 AVG 100% Shaq
3 1986 8.0 HIGH 100% Bird
4 1967 8.0 AVG 100% Chamberlain
5 2012 8.0 AVG 90% LBJ
6 1987 7.5 AVG 100% Magic
7 1993 7.5 HIGH 100% Olajuwon
8 1962 8.0 HIGH 100% Russell
9 2002 7.5 HIGH 100% Duncan
10 2004 7.5 HIGH 100% KG
11 1977 8.0 HIGH 80% Walton

GATEKEEPERS
12 1977 7.0 AVG 100% Kareem
13 1976 7.0 AVG 100% Erving

ALMOST SACRED
14 1994 6.5 HIGH 100% Robinson
15 2009 6.5 AVG 100% Wade
16 1968 6.5 HIGH 60% West
17 1990 6.0 HIGH 100% Barkley
18 1964 6.0 HIGH 100% Oscar
19 2008 6.0 AVG 100% Kobe
20 2008 6.0 AVG 100% Paul
21 1992 6.0 AVG 100% Malone
22 2007 6.0 AVG 90% Nash
23 2006 5.5 AVG 100% Dirk
24 1990 5.5 AVG 100% Ewing
25 1982 5.5 AVG 100% Moses
26 2003 6.0 AVG 90% McGrady

THE REST
27 2011 5.0 HIGH 100% Howard
28 1991 5.0 HIGH 100% Pippen
29 2012 5.0 HIGH 100% Durant
30 1996 5.0 HIGH 100% Penny
31 1975 5.5 AVG 100% Barry
32 1987 5.0 AVG 90% McHale
33 1971 5.0 AVG 100% Frazier
34 1967 5.0 AVG 80% Thurmond
35 1975 4.5 HIGH 100% Gilmore
36 2006 4.0 HIGH 100% Pierce
37 1997 5.0 LOW 100% Hill
38 2000 4.0 HIGH 100% Mourning
39 1984 4.5 LOW 90% King
40 1985 4.0 AVG 100% Thomas

**Note -- multiple years may qualify for the same player -- in that case, the first occurrence was selected

Just out of curiosity, did you mean for that to be 1990 over 1991 Jordan? I can definitely see the argument, 1990 Jordan was INSANE in the postseason (43-8-7 against the Sixers?!), but since portability is a big part of your evaluation here, you might want to consider that 1991 MJ was ridiculous off-ball and as a playmaker.

And btw, I remember you being pretty high on Duncan in the beginning of the project? You ranked him 4th at one point IIRC. If I may ask, what changed?

Never that high on Duncan -- you are thinking of someone else (I think). See the note at the bottom of my post -- I'd take 91 Jordan over 90, but they are on the same line to me. For the purpose of listing 40 guys, I pulled the data from my spreadsheet, so the first chronological occurrence of the season was pulled. I'd take 97 or 98 Malone over 92 Malone too, but they are also on the same line IMO.

Also FTR, I have the hardest time ranking LBJ, Magic and Russell. Hakeem is always a guy I think "I can see him being right next to Jordan" (see Fatal's list) but it's just so darn confounding to me given the quality of those Rockets teams and the 1 in 4 out. Also have a hard time with Dwight Howard.