tsherkin wrote:4 mpg makes a difference, especially when each possessions counts for more, since there's a considerable pace difference between the two teams and Calderon's poorer at attacking in transition.
I don't want to harp too much on pace here (small correlation between pace and ortg; in the single-digits % wise) but in 2011 Calderon played 68 games/55 starts/31 mpg/2100+ minutes (starts highest since '08; mpg/minutes were the highest since 2009) for a faster paced team than any team Rondo's played on. His offensive metrics that season were also better than any Rondo season since 2010. Like I said, when he's on the court he was effective, even on a faster-paced team.
He would not continue to show his usual efficiency in a more prominent role. You cannot, for example, assume that his 3P% would translate into that situation as effectively. Jose has enjoyed a 77.2%+ assisted percentage on his threes over the last 6 years. That's not going to stay happening in Boston.
Has he also played with the post-Bosh talent that Rondo had in Boston? Bargs/Bayless/DeRozan are capable players, but I wouldn't put them over KG/Pierce/Allen over that time period. I think he'd still get plenty of open looks now even if KG and Pierce are a bit long in the tooth. Maintaining that efficiency? No, but I don't think he'd fall off the map here, either.
He's not going to exploit those transition opportunities as effectively. Calderon's even WORSE at drawing fouls, and that's already been a problem for Boston. The difference in FT% wouldn't likely make a huge difference to the team's ability to turn FT/FGA into a strength instead of a weakness.
I suppose the flip-side of this is that he'd help you in an more important area of offense; namely better shooting.
Calderon in Toronto has enjoyed a lower TOV% than Rondo; not by a TON, but still traditionally lower (and one must match that against notably lower AST% as well, especially over the last 2+ seasons). I'd suspect that would change, since there's at least a mild correlation between increased minutes and increased turnovers for Jose. And of course Calderon has a clear decline trend over his career, getting worse as he's featured more. This year, he's riding 51%+ shooting from 3 to a high scoring efficiency that is buoying what is otherwise a fairly tepid, uninspired performance in his highest-usage role since his second season. The Raptors have been notably worse on offense without Lowry, and Jose isn't really helping that a ton.
And I can see why; Lowry been phenomenal for the Raptors. He's easily been playing at a higher level than Calderon when he's in the lineup. And right now Rondo has been better than Calderon as well...but even that's a SSS so far and I can only go by past season performances here, in which Calderon has an apparent edge. As for tovs, I'll save that for my next point here:
It's true that many Boston possessions are very simple, simple enough that practically anyone could run them. Boston is still a methodical team that likes a lot of slow-developing plays, and Jose does well with that... but he doesn't have the ability to do MORE than that, which Rondo does. It's tough to compare them directly in a statistical manner because their roles and environments are so different, of course, but I have little faith in Calderon. He's a one-trick pony.
In a simple, methodical offense; how many "tricks" do you need anyway?
And is Rondo truly doing THAT much more on offense than Calderon? I think there's plenty to suggest that he's not, fake behind-the-back passes and all. Usage (which incorporates tov%) would probably go up slightly, but relatively speaking he's not headed to a crappy team here that would cause him to scale up usage a ton (a la Harden on the Rockets).
Well, your points about durability/playing time are valid. So advantage Rondo. But when he's on the court I think that Calderon has been at least as effective as Rondo on offense.