Is Rondo Finally the best PG in the NBA?

[MisterWestside]

LOL, you beat me too it. Man he missed some good opportunities today, especially with Demar/JV.

I would say Jose is a step below Rondo from a court vision perspective but I would put them in almost the same tier in how they acquire their assists.

Well at least Jose can actually shoot the ball as well. Unlike Rondo, if you leave him open he can knock down the shot from midrange and 3.

And that's what keeps Rondo from truly joining the game's elite PGs (like Paul, Nash, etc.); a lack of offense outside the assist. You can spam assists all you want, but as I mentioned before it's not a proxy for shot-creation. Sporting a lower ortg than every other PG since '08 except Westbrook, Davis, Felton, Sessions, and Watson (and all but Watson are doing more for their team's offense) doesn't say "elite".

[MacGill]

Well at least Jose can actually shoot the ball as well. Unlike Rondo, if you leave him open he can knock down the shot from midrange and 3.

100% agree with that.

And that's what keeps Rondo from truly joining the game's elite PGs (like Paul, Nash, etc.); a lack of offense outside the assist. You can spam assists all you want, but as I mentioned before it's not a proxy for shot-creation. Sporting a lower ortg than every other PG since '08 except Westbrook, Davis, Felton, Sessions, and Watson (and all but Watson are doing more for their team's offense) doesn't say "elite".

To note though, Jose is terrible at shot creation himself and scores most from being a spot up shooter off the pass. Rondo excels in comparison to taking the ball to the rim as well as while driving being able to make a creative pass resulting in a team score.

I do not have Rondo in the elite category but would certainly prefe him on my team compared to Jose. Unlike Rondo, Jose loves to push the ball up the court then slow down to a half court set so that defences have a chance to set?? We do have some run and gun athletes on our team who will see greater success once Lowry comes back from injury.

[tsherkin]

Preface that with on offense....because Nash couldn't come close on defense......No Nash team has ever come close to being as good on defense as SEVERAL Rondo teams.....

Offense is considerably more important than defense to a PG, because of the differing levels of impact possible. Rondo is a better defender, sure, but the offensive gap is large enough that this isn't that significant. Rondo isn't even close to a defensive anchor type player, and he's been able to play some pretty aggressive perimeter defense because of the team he's had. Superior defensive coaching, superior defensive personnel, it makes a difference. This isn't a relevant comment. Nash has shown himself capable of doing the exact things Rondo cannot consistently manage, even come the playoffs, in terms of asserting himself as a scoring threat in an effective and efficient manner... and he does more for his team's offense during the regular season. This is far more important than the difference between their respective abilities to play perimeter defense.

How do Rondo guys feel about Jose Calderon and his offensive impact? How does he compare to Rondo offensively? He's another guy with a very high assist rate due to his playing style.

This... goes a little too far. Rondo is more dynamic than Calderon. Jose had to learn how to not be a bitch and to actually push the ball in transition, something Rondo has always done very well, and of course Rondo is more explosive, so he can take advantage of smaller seams in the defense... whereas Calderon will just back off. Rondo doesn't pull the shot often enough, but Jose has a superhuman ability to not shoot when it is appropriate to shoot.

Yes, they both inflate their assist numbers with set offense and spam plays, and they both shoot very little, but that doesn't really make him an effective comparison here because we know Rondo can and does do more on a game-to-game basis. Rondo is still one of the best point guards in the league, whereas Jose is not worth playing a lot more than 25 mpg.

[MisterWestside]

To note though, Jose is terrible at shot creation himself and scores most from being a spot up shooter off the pass. Rondo excels in comparison to taking the ball to the rim as well as while driving being able to make a creative pass resulting in a team score.

I do not have Rondo in the elite category but would certainly prefe him on my team compared to Jose. Unlike Rondo, Jose loves to push the ball up the court then slow down to a half court set so that defences have a chance to set?? We do have some run and gun athletes on our team who will see greater success once Lowry comes back from injury.

Oh definitely agreed there; Jose isn't a shot-creator himself. But at least he can give opponents something to think about with his ability to shoot the ball at a solid clip; when Jose gets to the rim he finishes (close to 60% efg in 2011) and he can stretch the floor with the midrange shot and 3-ball (46% efg on jumpers in '11). Doesn't get to the line much at sub-20% free-throw rate, but he'll make them better when he gets there (despite taking ~30 less fts than Rondo in '11, Jose still converted 13 more free throws!) Rondo is clearly superior at getting to the rim, but his horrid jumper and ft shooting form suppresses some of that value: in 2011 he took nearly 60% jumpers and shot a beautiful 39% efg on them while going 57% from the line. Yeah, it's nice to get to the line and gets defenders in foul trouble, but you still gotta your fts. If not, can you at least hit an open shot when defenses give them to you? It's why good defensive teams can just sag off of Rondo (especially in the playoffs) with success.

I think if you were to swap him and Rondo for the Cs (leaving defense out of the picture here), you wouldn't miss much. Pierce can still get his own shot, KG can do the same in the post, and Jose is still a good enough passerto get others involved while being a superior shooter.

[tsherkin]

Nah, Jose would be bad for Boston. He's ACTUALLY as bad on defense as G35 tries to say Nash is. And of course he is a far less effective transition threat.

Jose is too limited to be worth more than 25ish mpg, and he'd make Boston appreciably worse.

[MacGill]

To note though, Jose is terrible at shot creation himself and scores most from being a spot up shooter off the pass. Rondo excels in comparison to taking the ball to the rim as well as while driving being able to make a creative pass resulting in a team score.

I do not have Rondo in the elite category but would certainly prefe him on my team compared to Jose. Unlike Rondo, Jose loves to push the ball up the court then slow down to a half court set so that defences have a chance to set?? We do have some run and gun athletes on our team who will see greater success once Lowry comes back from injury.

Oh definitely agreed there; Jose isn't a shot-creator himself. But at least he can give opponents something to think about with his ability to shoot the ball at a solid clip; when Jose gets to the rim he finishes (close to 60% efg in 2011) and he can stretch the floor with the midrange shot and 3-ball (46% efg on jumpers). Doesn't get to the line much at sub-20% free-throw rate, but he'll make them better when he gets there (despite taking ~30 less fts than Rondo in '11, Jose still converted 13 more free throws!) Rondo is clearly superior at getting to the rim, but his horrid jumper and ft shooting form suppresses some of that value: in 2011 he took nearly 60% jumpers and shot a beautiful 39% efg on them while going 57% from the line. I think if you were to swap him and Rondo for the Cs (leaving defense out of the picture here), you wouldn't miss much. Pierce can still get his own shot, KG can do the same in the post, and Jose is still a good enough passer to get others ivolved while being a superior shooter.

Agreed. Underlined though is why I would luv to make the swap in this hypothectical

[MisterWestside]

Nah, Jose would be bad for Boston. He's ACTUALLY as bad on defense as G35 tries to say Nash is. And of course he is a far less effective transition threat.

Jose is too limited to be worth more than 25ish mpg, and he'd make Boston appreciably worse.

That's why I said leaving defense out of it Yeah, Jose isn't a defender. Pace shouldn't be an issue though; the Celtics and Raptors aren't all that different pace-wise.

[tsherkin]

That's why I said leaving defense out of it Yeah, Jose isn't a defender. Pace shouldn't be an issue though; the Celtics and Raptors aren't all that different pace-wise.

Yeah, but I didn't just lament his defense, his offensive value is lesser than Rondo's, jumper or not.

[MisterWestside]

Yeah, but I didn't just lament his defense, his offensive value is lesser than Rondo's, jumper or not.

Enh, Calderon does sport superior usg/ortg splits and year-by-year non-playoff oRAPM numbers than Rondo since '08. Don't think I can agree with you here.

[tsherkin]

Enh, Calderon does sport superior usg/ortg splits and year-by-year oRAPM numbers than Rondo since '08. Don't think I can agree with you here.

Mmm... his efficiency is superior, but he's less capable of doing the dynamic things that Rondo does. This is a situation where I think that Jose's generally lower minutes are creating noise around his stats to some extent. Calderon does one thing very well, and that's play 1-4 PnR sets with a good-shooting PF/C, that's about it. He's a very good reserve, sometimes a 6MOY contender if used that way. He's talented.

You throw him out there for starter's minutes, though, and it's way easier to pick at his clear lack of versatility on offense, nevermind his D. It's also important to consider that Toronto is a TERRIBLE team, and that Jose looks better when he's off because the Craptors have no depth. And it should be mentioned that he hasn't played a 70-game season since 07-08, further disturbing things.

[MisterWestside]

Mmm... his efficiency is superior, but he's less capable of doing the dynamic things that Rondo does. This is a situation where I think that Jose's generally lower minutes are creating noise around his stats to some extent. Calderon does one thing very well, and that's play 1-4 PnR sets with a good-shooting PF/C, that's about it. He's a very good reserve, sometimes a 6MOY contender if used that way. He's talented.

You throw him out there for starter's minutes, though, and it's way easier to pick at his clear lack of versatility on offense, nevermind his D. It's also important to consider that Toronto is a TERRIBLE team, and that Jose looks better when he's off because the Craptors have no depth. And it should be mentioned that he hasn't played a 70-game season since 07-08, further disturbing things.

Both Rondo and Calderon are mid-usage players (within the 18-24% range) with Rondo is creating at a +3% clip compared to Calderon. But Calderon is way more efficient on offense. I wouldn't buy that tradeoff there with Rondo. If you go with the adj. +/- numbers Calderon stays in the positive while Rondo registers negative numbers each season on offense (credit DavidStern for providing the non-playoff riRAPM data). Now all of these numbers have their quirks and biases as you allude to in your post, but still...I want to see some data here that would tip the scales in Rondo's favor. Know what I mean?

I will agree with the playing time issue, and perhaps that's where I'd see where you'd go with Rondo over Calderon on offense; Calderon's played less minutes and started less games. Calderon has played starter minutes when he's on the court though, 31 mpg to Rondo's 35 mpg (since '08).

[tsherkin]

Both Rondo and Calderon are mid-usage players (within the 18-24% range) with Rondo is creating at a +3% clip compared to Calderon. But Calderon is way more efficient on offense.

Sure, the 3P% and FT% make a big difference. I'd be interested to see what happens in a starter's role, though. You'll notice he's been much less efficient over the past two seasons than he has in his previous years and that his ORTG has declined considerably for several reasons.

I will agree with the playing time issue, and perhaps that's where I'd see where you'd go with Rondo over Calderon on offense; Calderon's played less minutes and started less games. Calderon has played starter minutes when he's on the court though, 31 mpg to Rondo's 35 mpg (since '08).

4 mpg makes a difference, especially when each possessions counts for more, since there's a considerable pace difference between the two teams and Calderon's poorer at attacking in transition. First of all, there are the durability issues. Second of all, there are the stamina issues Calderon clearly evidences. Third of all, he's a far less versatile player, so I feel like in a more featured, prominent role such as Rondo evidences in Boston, Calderon would decline even more.

Remember that we're talking about a guy who's been a 112 and 116 ORTG player these past two seasons at -2.0% and +2.0% TS compared to league average. He's not that much of a stunner on offense. Rondo's rated out much worse than that, I agree, and I find myself in the unenviable position of defending a player I think is a little less of an impact player than most make him out to be, but Calderon?

He would not continue to show his usual efficiency in a more prominent role. You cannot, for example, assume that his 3P% would translate into that situation as effectively. Jose has enjoyed a 77.2%+ assisted percentage on his threes over the last 6 years. That's not going to stay happening in Boston. He's not going to exploit those transition opportunities as effectively. Calderon's even WORSE at drawing fouls, and that's already been a problem for Boston. The difference in FT% wouldn't likely make a huge difference to the team's ability to turn FT/FGA into a strength instead of a weakness. Calderon in Toronto has enjoyed a lower TOV% than Rondo; not by a TON, but still traditionally lower (and one must match that against notably lower AST% as well, especially over the last 2+ seasons). I'd suspect that would change, since there's at least a mild correlation between increased minutes and increased turnovers for Jose. And of course Calderon has a clear decline trend over his career, getting worse as he's featured more. This year, he's riding 51%+ shooting from 3 to a high scoring efficiency that is buoying what is otherwise a fairly tepid, uninspired performance in his highest-usage role since his second season. The Raptors have been notably worse on offense without Lowry, and Jose isn't really helping that a ton.

It's true that many Boston possessions are very simple, simple enough that practically anyone could run them. Boston is still a methodical team that likes a lot of slow-developing plays, and Jose does well with that... but he doesn't have the ability to do MORE than that, which Rondo does. It's tough to compare them directly in a statistical manner because their roles and environments are so different, of course, but I have little faith in Calderon. He's a one-trick pony.

[MisterWestside]

4 mpg makes a difference, especially when each possessions counts for more, since there's a considerable pace difference between the two teams and Calderon's poorer at attacking in transition.

I don't want to harp too much on pace here (small correlation between pace and ortg; in the single-digits % wise) but in 2011 Calderon played 68 games/55 starts/31 mpg/2100+ minutes (starts highest since '08; mpg/minutes were the highest since 2009) for a faster paced team than any team Rondo's played on. His offensive metrics that season were also better than any Rondo season since 2010. Like I said, when he's on the court he was effective, even on a faster-paced team.

He would not continue to show his usual efficiency in a more prominent role. You cannot, for example, assume that his 3P% would translate into that situation as effectively. Jose has enjoyed a 77.2%+ assisted percentage on his threes over the last 6 years. That's not going to stay happening in Boston.

Has he also played with the post-Bosh talent that Rondo had in Boston? Bargs/Bayless/DeRozan are capable players, but I wouldn't put them over KG/Pierce/Allen over that time period. I think he'd still get plenty of open looks now even if KG and Pierce are a bit long in the tooth. Maintaining that efficiency? No, but I don't think he'd fall off the map here, either.

He's not going to exploit those transition opportunities as effectively. Calderon's even WORSE at drawing fouls, and that's already been a problem for Boston. The difference in FT% wouldn't likely make a huge difference to the team's ability to turn FT/FGA into a strength instead of a weakness.

I suppose the flip-side of this is that he'd help you in an more important area of offense; namely better shooting.

Calderon in Toronto has enjoyed a lower TOV% than Rondo; not by a TON, but still traditionally lower (and one must match that against notably lower AST% as well, especially over the last 2+ seasons). I'd suspect that would change, since there's at least a mild correlation between increased minutes and increased turnovers for Jose. And of course Calderon has a clear decline trend over his career, getting worse as he's featured more. This year, he's riding 51%+ shooting from 3 to a high scoring efficiency that is buoying what is otherwise a fairly tepid, uninspired performance in his highest-usage role since his second season. The Raptors have been notably worse on offense without Lowry, and Jose isn't really helping that a ton.

And I can see why; Lowry been phenomenal for the Raptors. He's easily been playing at a higher level than Calderon when he's in the lineup. And right now Rondo has been better than Calderon as well...but even that's a SSS so far and I can only go by past season performances here, in which Calderon has an apparent edge. As for tovs, I'll save that for my next point here:

It's true that many Boston possessions are very simple, simple enough that practically anyone could run them. Boston is still a methodical team that likes a lot of slow-developing plays, and Jose does well with that... but he doesn't have the ability to do MORE than that, which Rondo does. It's tough to compare them directly in a statistical manner because their roles and environments are so different, of course, but I have little faith in Calderon. He's a one-trick pony.

In a simple, methodical offense; how many "tricks" do you need anyway? And is Rondo truly doing THAT much more on offense than Calderon? I think there's plenty to suggest that he's not, fake behind-the-back passes and all. Usage (which incorporates tov%) would probably go up slightly, but relatively speaking he's not headed to a crappy team here that would cause him to scale up usage a ton (a la Harden on the Rockets).

Well, your points about durability/playing time are valid. So advantage Rondo. But when he's on the court I think that Calderon has been at least as effective as Rondo on offense.

[tsherkin]

I don't want to harp too much on pace here (small correlation between pace and ortg; in the single-digits % wise) but in 2011 Calderon played 68 games/55 starts/31 mpg/2100+ minutes (starts highest since '08; mpg/minutes were the highest since 2009) for a faster paced team than any team Rondo's played on. His offensive metrics that season were also better than any Rondo season since 2010. Like I said, when he's on the court he was effective, even on a faster-paced team.

Mmm.... but it was also the lowest scoring efficiency of his entire career, the highest TOV% since his rookie season, and the lowest ORTG since his rookie season. He was much reduced by comparison, and that was on a Toronto team for which he did basically nothing, since they were the 21st-ranked team offense. And again, he was playing his sets, and it looked a little different than Boston's offense. In Toronto, he played a more active role than he would have in Boston. He ran pick-and-roll on over 45% of his possessions in 2011.

Do you think that would happen in Boston? That same season, Rondo was running it 26.6% of the time, because the offense was developing for Ray, Pierce and KG. That kind of puts a crimp on Jose's ability to impact a game. Last year, 31.3% of the time. This year, so far? 38.9%, early. Still a lot less than Calderon, and that's basically the only way he impacts an offense, so they'd be robbing him of his efficacy... and for them, it would make sense, because of the other weapons they'd be employing.

I suppose the flip-side of this is that he'd help you in an more important area of offense; namely better shooting.

IF he was used as a spot-up weapon with any degree of usage, but I doubt he would be, because they have superior weapons for that.

In a simple, methodical offense; how many "tricks" do you need anyway?

Not too many, but as I explained above, he wouldn't likely be using the ball in that play enough of the time for it to matter all that much.

[MacGill]

I suppose the flip-side of this is that he'd help you in an more important area of offense; namely better shooting.

This has to be one of the more frustration aspects of him as a Raptor's fan. Well I have no problem stating that he is a better shooter than Rondo, he really lacks the ability to consistently picks his spots where the team needs him to pick up the slack.

A few games back against Indiana 4th quarter, we score a total a 5 points (somehow win) but this is the clear difference of why even though the percentages show him as favorable, he has a habit of just not producing when you wish he would. His shooting percentage is prettier but the execution in the flow of the game isn't close to what I see from Rondo when Boston needs a bucket.

It is this that when you go back and look at the stats you just shake your head because the impact just isn't there.

In a simple, methodical offense; how many "tricks" do you need anyway? And is Rondo truly doing THAT much more on offense than Calderon? I think there's plenty to suggest that he's not, fake behind-the-back passes and all. Usage (which incorporates tov%) would probably go up slightly, but relatively speaking he's not headed to a crappy team here that would cause him to scale up usage a ton (a la Harden on the Rockets).

Certainly has better overall court vision and a sense to drive the basket. Jose either PnR's or holds the ball pass for a shot creator. Don't get me wrong he's in the nba and has high end moments but he doesn't really draw fouls through penetration and is a relatively low end dd scorer who certainly does allow most opposing pg's to have their way with him.

To me, he's everything you want in a 2nd string guard (minus the 10m ) and will complement Kyle coming off the bench a role he just seems to flourish better in, especially from an injury perspective. One thing you can see is that Rondo is putting work in with his shot and once he becomes a little more consistent it will certainly make him a much more potent scoring threat.