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2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...)

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Post#1 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type.
Thu Jun 13, 2013 12:16 pm by ElGee

As many of you know my blog is down or else this would have some nice charts and graphics. As it is, I'll present a bare-bones version here. I've been stat-tracking the FInals this year with some major upgrades in the process. This iteration I've added shot-location, offensive-defensive matchup information on every shot and play type.

A lot has been made of LeBron James' G3 -- was he passive with his shot? Did he not end up in the post enough? Etc. etc. Below is the breakdown of Miami's plays where LeBron was the ballhandler and the action immediately led to a shot by the player or a teammate (meaning, there wasn't a second PnR, or a teammate wasn't posted up).

Pick n Roll
Parker 8
Wade 8
James 7
Ginobili 6

Post Up (low block)
James 8
Duncan 6

Post Up (mid post)
James 3
Duncan 3

**No one else more than 1 post up in game

Drive (no PnR)
James 5
Wade 4
Ginobili 4
Leonard 4

Transition
James 4
Parker 2
Green 2
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Post#2 Re: LeBron James 2013 NBA Finals Game 3 by Pl
Thu Jun 13, 2013 12:18 pm by colts18

What about double teams? Did you keep track of that? I want to know if LeBron was getting doubled on his drives
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Post#3 Re: LeBron James 2013 NBA Finals Game 3 by Pl
Thu Jun 13, 2013 1:00 pm by E-Balla

colts18 wrote:What about double teams? Did you keep track of that? I want to know if LeBron was getting doubled on his drives

Why double while playing him 4 feet off?
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Post#4 Re: LeBron James 2013 NBA Finals Game 3 by Pl
Thu Jun 13, 2013 1:03 pm by colts18

GC Pantalones wrote:
colts18 wrote:What about double teams? Did you keep track of that? I want to know if LeBron was getting doubled on his drives

Why double while playing him 4 feet off?

I said doubles on his drives.
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Post#5 Re: LeBron James 2013 NBA Finals Game 3 by Pl
Thu Jun 13, 2013 1:05 pm by E-Balla

My bad...
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Post#6 Re: LeBron James 2013 NBA Finals Game 3 by Pl
Thu Jun 13, 2013 1:06 pm by JNelson43

It really looked like Lebron was active in game 3, which I didn't necessarily find to be the case for much of game 2 (at least his usage rate was up compared to the first two games of the series). Every other basic stat looks to be right around his averages, including attempts per game. His number of makes and ability to get to the line is what's down, not unrelated I'd imagine.

No free throw attempts in game 3, that's amazing.
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Post#7 Re: LeBron James 2013 NBA Finals Game 3 by Pl
Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:40 pm by ElGee

colts18 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:
colts18 wrote:What about double teams? Did you keep track of that? I want to know if LeBron was getting doubled on his drives

Why double while playing him 4 feet off?

I said doubles on his drives.


Umm, sort of. I have doubles that led to a shot. I don't track idle double-teams, and I've explained why in the past. Using that definition:

LBJ was doubled on shot attempts 3 times: in the post once, driving twice.
LBJ was doubled and passed 8 times, none of which I have coming from non-screen drives. 5 are from on-ball screens.
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Post#8 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:13 am by ElGee

Here's a Backpicks boxscore after 4 games of the Finals:

Image

Def = Defensive EV
Off = Offensive EV
Tot = Total EV

OC = Opportunities Created
FD = Fouls Drawn

Helped Offense = No. of 2 and 3-point shots made that were created by teammates

2FG/FGA = 2-point field goals against in guarding situations
SF = Shooting fouls committed
Errors = Defensive errors (missed rotations and blow by's)
HN = Helped Needed on defense
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Post#9 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:21 am by colts18

What's the formula for EV?

I noticed that EV in this finals is much higher than what you tracked for the 2011 finals. Did the formula change in that time?

http://web.archive.org/web/201111262117 ... ted-value/
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Post#10 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:21 am by penbeast0

Danny Green, Finals MVP! His mother would be so proud (and his agent would need a towel to wipe up the drool).
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Post#11 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:23 am by ElGee

Some notes:

On guarded shots:

Tim Duncan is 4-17 from 5-9 feet. He's 0-6 from 10-15 and 1-5 from deep. Which means when he's guarded away from the hoop, Duncan has shot 5-28 (17.9%) in 4 games.

LeBron James is 0-7 on guarded 3-point attempts. He is 1-8 from 10-15 feet and just 3-9 from 5-9 feet. However, he is 8-16 on guarded 2-point shots outside 15 feet.

By matchup:
*Attempts include double teaming

James is 10-22 against Kawhi Leonard, but just 4-16 against Danny Green. He's 5-12 vs. Tim Duncan
Wade is 3-4 against Kawhi Leonard. 7-20 against Danny Green. And 9-15 vs. Tim Duncan
Bosh is 4-9 against Tim Duncan

Tim Duncan is 5.5-13 against Chris Bosh, but 2-8.5 against Udonis Haslem.
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Post#12 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 12:25 pm by lorak

Elgee,
many people complain about LeBron stat padding, playing well when game is over or there is +10 points differential. So if you have your game data in play-by-play like format it would be nice to see these numbers from the table without garbage time.
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Post#13 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 2:59 pm by ElGee

DavidStern wrote:Elgee,
many people complain about LeBron stat padding, playing well when game is over or there is +10 points differential. So if you have your game data in play-by-play like format it would be nice to see these numbers from the table without garbage time.


I do -- what would you consider garbage time? I filtered for garbage time in G2 and G3, but not G4 simply because so many starters stayed on the court until the final minute...at what point would you like me to filter?

@ Colts there are like 25 marginal values used based on the expected value of each action.
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Post#14 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 3:07 pm by ronnymac2

ElGee — Great work.

RE: LeBron James — I'm interpreting your data like this: He's carrying a heavy proportion of his team's offense, and even with that large role (perhaps the most important and energy-consuming role on the court), he's accomplishing what his role calls for better than just about any other player is at accomplishing their own role (smaller roles at that!) except Danny Green, who is being spoon fed 3-point shots (Nod to Green's good defense on LeBron James).

Is that fair?
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Post#15 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 3:12 pm by lorak

ElGee wrote:
DavidStern wrote:Elgee,
many people complain about LeBron stat padding, playing well when game is over or there is +10 points differential. So if you have your game data in play-by-play like format it would be nice to see these numbers from the table without garbage time.


I do -- what would you consider garbage time? I filtered for garbage time in G2 and G3, but not G4 simply because so many starters stayed on the court until the final minute...at what point would you like me to filter?


Well, I don't know, I was hoping you have some smart definition of garbage time ;]
The best way would be to ask people, who are saying James have been stat padding during garbage time.
Maybe "4th quarter, Spurs or Heat lead by 10 or more points, no Duncan and Parker on the floor" = garbage time?
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Post#16 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Fri Jun 14, 2013 3:19 pm by PCProductions

Poor Kawhi. Help needed for him to contain Lebron is immense.

Oh, and awesome work, ElGee.
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Post#17 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Mon Jun 17, 2013 1:08 pm by ElGee

G1 Backpicks box score:

Image

Def = Defensive EV
Off = Offensive EV
Tot = Total EV

OC = Opportunities Created
FD = Fouls Drawn

Helped Offense = No. of 2 and 3-point shots made that were created by teammates

2FG/FGA = 2-point field goals against in guarding situations
SF = Shooting fouls committed
Errors = Defensive errors (missed rotations and blow by's)
HN = Helped Needed on defense
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Post#18 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:55 am by ElGee

G2 Backpicks box score:

Image


Def = Defensive EV
Off = Offensive EV
Tot = Total EV

OC = Opportunities Created
FD = Fouls Drawn

Helped Offense = No. of 2 and 3-point shots made that were created by teammates

2FG/FGA = 2-point field goals against in guarding situations
SF = Shooting fouls committed
Errors = Defensive errors (missed rotations and blow by's)
HN = Helped Needed on defense
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Post#19 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:56 am by ElGee

G3 Backpicks box score:

Image

Def = Defensive EV
Off = Offensive EV
Tot = Total EV

OC = Opportunities Created
FD = Fouls Drawn

Helped Offense = No. of 2 and 3-point shots made that were created by teammates

2FG/FGA = 2-point field goals against in guarding situations
SF = Shooting fouls committed
Errors = Defensive errors (missed rotations and blow by's)
HN = Helped Needed on defense
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Post#20 Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play T
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:56 am by ElGee

G4 Backpicks box score:

Image

Def = Defensive EV
Off = Offensive EV
Tot = Total EV

OC = Opportunities Created
FD = Fouls Drawn

Helped Offense = No. of 2 and 3-point shots made that were created by teammates

2FG/FGA = 2-point field goals against in guarding situations
SF = Shooting fouls committed
Errors = Defensive errors (missed rotations and blow by's)
HN = Helped Needed on defense
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