2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...)

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ElGee
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Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...) 

Post#41 » by ElGee » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:32 pm

2013 NBA Finals Backpicks Box score:

Image

Def = Defensive EV
Off = Offensive EV
Tot = Total EV

OC = Opportunities Created
FD = Fouls Drawn

Helped Offense = No. of 2 and 3-point shots made that were created by teammates

2FG/FGA = 2-point field goals against in guarding situations
SF = Shooting fouls committed
Errors = Defensive errors (missed rotations and blow by's)
HN = Helped Needed on defense
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ElGee
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Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...) 

Post#42 » by ElGee » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:06 pm

2013 Finals by matchup.* Number between player denotes Expected Value from the matchup. For example, +11.2 means the offensive player had +11.2 points of EV from their matchup. Negative values mean the defender gained from the matchup.

*Defined by "guarding situations" -- when a defensive player was engaged on an offensive player. Helping off on another player, or missing an assignment, is not counted as a guarding situation.

LeBron offense +11.2 vs. Leonard defense.


Spoiler:
2pa 16.5-37.5 (44% )
Shooting Fouls 4
Blow By's 1
Help Needed 31


LeBron offense +5.6 vs. Duncan defense


Spoiler:
2pa 9-16 (56%)
Shooting Fouls 3
Blow By's 1
Help Needed 1


LeBron offense +0.8 vs. Green defense


Spoiler:
2pa 5.5-18.5 (30% )
Shooting Fouls 6
Blow By's 1
Help Needed 5


LeBron offense -6.0 vs. Diaw defense


Spoiler:
2pa 4-20 (20% )
Shooting Fouls 1
Blow By's 1
Help Needed 4


Parker offense +13.9 vs. Chalmers defense
Spoiler:
2pa 9-14.5 (62%)
Shooting Fouls 2
Blow By's 3
Help Needed 17


Parker offense +10.3 vs. Cole defense
Spoiler:
2pa 6-8 (75%)
Shooting Fouls 3
Blow By's 1
Help Needed 7


Parker offense +3.6 vs. James defense
Spoiler:
2pa 5-11 (45%)
Shooting Fouls 0
Blow By's 2
Help Needed 4


Duncan offense +10.8 vs. Bosh defense
Spoiler:
2pa 15.5-29 (53%)
Shooting Fouls 4
Blow By's 2
Help Needed 8


Wade offense +1.0 vs. Green defense
Spoiler:
2pa 9.5-28 (34%)
Shooting Fouls 3
Blow By's 2
Help Needed 10


Bosh offense -0.6 vs. Duncan defense
Spoiler:
2pa 7.5-18.5 (34%)
Shooting Fouls 0
Blow By's 0
Help Needed 0
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Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...) 

Post#43 » by penbeast0 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:16 pm

Thank you!
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
ElGee
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Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...) 

Post#44 » by ElGee » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:37 pm

2013 Finals by Play Type. A "play" was determined by the last action (of the following) that occurred before a shot, foul or turnover.

Pick and roll (PnR)
Low post
Pinch post
drive
transition
catch (open, covered, or off screen)
pullup (off dribble)
Offensive rebound putback (OREB)


Some plays are current unclassified due to ambiguity. For all other plays, the last action took precedent. For instance, a PnR that immediately led to a shot (or an open shot off a pass) was scored as a PnR. A PnR that led to a switch, then a clearout, then a post-up or drive, was scored as a post-up or drive, since those were the last clearly delineated actions before a shot, foul or turnover.

**Number of occurrences in parentheses. Then Expected Points per play, which = points + 0.76 expected points per foul shot attempt.


Image
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Re: 2013 Finals Analysis (EV, Defense, Play Type...) 

Post#45 » by colts18 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:41 pm

Elgee, do you have the breakdown on the Spurs PnR with Parker going against LeBron's defense? That's where LeBron's defense shined and wouldn't show up on the box score you track because LeBron's defense prevented a lot of Parker shot attempts. I read on the ESPN bottomline that the Spurs scored just 2 points off of Parker PnR in Game 7 after averaging 16 PPG from Parker PnR in games 1-6.

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