Quotatious wrote:Moonbeam wrote:Spoiler:
Seems like a very solid list. There are some very interesting, controversial things - West over Hakeem, Frazier over Wade (these two I would have to disagree with), Isiah out of the top 40 (here, I'm actually inclined to agree), Dantley over Gervin (also would disagree), Reggie so far ahead of Gervin (I rank Iceman higher), Hayes is very low, Iverson so far behind Isiah, Melo so far behind Nique and English, Steve Smith ahead of Mitch Richmond.
Interesting to see Ho Grant and Sheed around #80. That's probably roughly where I would put them, as well (not sure if I'd take them over Nance and Marion, though).
I'm just picking on some things here, but it's a good list, at first glance. Obviously I don't know your criteria, so I won't criticize anything. I'd just like to know your reasoning for some of those choices that I mentioned. Especially West over Olajuwon, Frazier over Wade, and Reggie so far ahead of Gervin.
Thanks for the comments! I'll try to address them point by point.
West vs. Hakeem:
I have wanted to started a thread about Wilt vs. Hakeem so that those who back Hakeem could better educate me on why he should rank so high. I watched him play and loved his game, but I think this is more of a case of me really, really appreciating West than denigrating Hakeem. I think Jerry West was absolutely blindingly brilliant on offense, and that's where the overall edge lies. He ranks within the top 20 on Score+ and PosScore+, and that is without accounting for the potential for efficiency to decrease with increased usage. Obviously he was a legendary shooter and a very good playmaker, but what impresses me the most is how he ramped it up in the playoffs. I've developed a playoff version of Score+ and O+ (a measure of ORating above expectations), and I'm working on a way to allocate credit with incomplete player data. Many of his playoff games came against the vaunted Celtics and their incredible defense. Unfortunately there is no opponent data for Boston specifically, but consider what he did against them in the playoffs:
1962: 31.1 PPG on 0.5522 TS when league average was 0.4787
1963: 29.5 PPG on 0.5221 TS when league average was 0.4925
1965: 33.8 PPG on 0.5122 TS when league average was 0.4849
1966: 33.9 PPG on 0.5872 TS when league average was 0.4865
1968: 31.3 PPG on 0.5590 TS when league average was 0.4978
1969: 37.9 PPG on 0.5656 TS when league average was 0.4907
Frazier vs. Wade:
Again, it's more of a case of me really appreciating Frazier than having a bad opinion of Wade. Wade has been an incredible player with an outstanding peak, but as with West, Frazier's ability to ramp up his game in the playoffs with highly efficient scoring, orchestrating New York's offense and being a huge part of their intense defense is something I really grew to appreciate. Perhaps I'm overvaluing him and undervaluing some of those other Knicks, and he doesn't have great longevity, but I think he was the main reason those Knick teams made 7 straight trips to the conference finals.
Dantley vs. Gervin:
I'm on board as a huge Dantley supporter, but both of these guys are known predominantly for their scoring, and, well, the direct impact of Dantley's scoring moved the needle for his team's scoring margin twice the amount that Gervin's did (Dantley with the all-time best Score+ of 4.283 vs. Gervin's still great 2.149). Neither was known for defense, and Gervin had more success as the main star of his team, but other advanced metrics also generally favor Dantley:
PER: Dantley 21.5, Gervin 21.4
WS/48: Dantley .189, Gervin .157
Total WS: Dantley 134.2, Gervin 116.3
BPM: Dantley 2.8, Gervin 1.5
VORP: Dantley 41.1, Gervin 30.4
Playoff PER: Gervin 21.2, Dantley 19.3
Playoff WS/48: Dantley .172, Gervin .146
Total Playoff WS: Gervin 9.7, Dantley 9.0
Hayes and Iverson:
Both of these guys are higher than I would have had them prior to participating in this project. Both had big problems with efficiency, though at least in Iverson's case that didn't preclude him from having an important positive impact on offense. Offense is the main thing Iverson brought to the table, and I just think there are many who were better than him (including Isiah, particularly in the playoffs). It seems Hayes' main value was on defense (and his ironman longevity), and he successfully incorporated his talent into a title with Washington, so perhaps I should put him a bit higher, but I don't think he was "other-worldly" in any respect other than his longevity.
Carmelo vs. English and Wilkins:
I appreciate Melo's last couple of seasons in New York, but prior to that, he was quite a poor playoff performer offensively (playoff Score+ of -0.478 and O+ of 1.90), and that is where he brings by far his most value. Nique is not particularly great in the playoffs, either, but I think he's got a big edge in the regular season.
Steve Smith vs. Mitch Richmond:
The recurring theme appears to be that perhaps I'm overrating playoff performance, but Steve Smith had an amazing playoff career. Perhaps I'm a little blinded by his years in Portland, but his ability to be such a dynamic and positive player in the postseason struck me more than Richmond's superior regular seasons.