Top 100 Project Pre-Lists

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Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#161 » by Moonbeam » Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:33 pm

Quotatious wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:
Spoiler:
I know it's no longer a "pre"-list, but I've put together an idea of a top 120. I'm sure I'll change it a lot with time, but anyway...

[1] Michael Jordan
[2] Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
[3] Bill Russell
[4] Wilt Chamberlain
[5] Magic Johnson
[6] Shaquille O'Neal
[7] Tim Duncan
[8] LeBron James
[9] Larry Bird
[10] Jerry West
[11] Hakeem Olajuwon
[12] Julius Erving
[13] Oscar Robertson
[14] Kobe Bryant
[15] Kevin Garnett
[16] David Robinson
[17] Dirk Nowitzki
[18] Karl Malone
[19] George Mikan
[20] Moses Malone
[21] Charles Barkley
[22] Walt Frazier
[23] Bob Pettit
[24] Dwyane Wade
[25] Scottie Pippen
[26] John Stockton
[27] Steve Nash
[28] Patrick Ewing
[29] John Havlicek
[30] Clyde Drexler
[31] Elgin Baylor
[32] Artis Gilmore
[33] Gary Payton
[34] Reggie Miller
[35] Rick Barry
[36] Paul Pierce
[37] Ray Allen
[38] Chris Paul
[39] Dwight Howard
[40] Dolph Schayes
[41] Isiah Thomas
[42] Kevin Durant
[43] Kevin McHale
[44] Willis Reed
[45] Adrian Dantley
[46] Robert Parish
[47] George Gervin
[48] Jason Kidd
[49] Alex English
[50] Pau Gasol
[51] Alonzo Mourning
[52] Dave Cowens
[53] Bob Lanier
[54] Dikembe Mutombo
[55] Dominique Wilkins
[56] Kevin Johnson
[57] Chauncey Billups
[58] Tracy McGrady
[59] Sam Jones
[60] Nate Thurmond
[61] Paul Arizin
[62] Manu Ginobili
[63] Bob Cousy
[64] Sidney Moncrief
[65] Elvin Hayes
[66] Allen Iverson
[67] James Worthy
[68] Bob McAdoo
[69] Dennis Rodman
[70] Wes Unseld
[71] Neil Johnston
[72] Vince Carter
[73] Bill Walton
[74] Joe Dumars
[75] Ben Wallace
[76] Grant Hill
[77] Maurice Cheeks
[78] Bernard King
[79] Bill Sharman
[80] Horace Grant
[81] Rasheed Wallace
[82] Cliff Hagan
[83] Tony Parker
[84] Walt Bellamy
[85] Chris Bosh
[86] Chris Webber
[87] Jerry Lucas
[88] Larry Nance
[89] Marques Johnson
[90] Shawn Marion
[91] Terry Porter
[92] Shawn Kemp
[93] Vern Mikkelsen
[94] Tiny Archibald
[95] Detlef Schrempf
[96] Anfernee Hardaway
[97] Jack Sikma
[98] Yao Ming
[99] Bobby Jones
[100] Elton Brand
[101] Carmelo Anthony
[102] Dan Issel
[103] Buck Williams
[104] Gus Williams
[105] Chris Mullin
[106] Dennis Johnson
[107] Mark Price
[108] Marcus Camby
[109] George Yardley
[110] Amar'e Stoudemire
[111] Tyson Chandler
[112] Larry Foust
[113] Chet Walker
[114] Bill Laimbeer
[115] Deron Williams
[116] Peja Stojakovic
[117] Jeff Hornacek
[118] Steve Smith
[119] Tim Hardaway
[120] Mitch Richmond


Seems like a very solid list. There are some very interesting, controversial things - West over Hakeem, Frazier over Wade (these two I would have to disagree with), Isiah out of the top 40 (here, I'm actually inclined to agree), Dantley over Gervin (also would disagree), Reggie so far ahead of Gervin (I rank Iceman higher), Hayes is very low, Iverson so far behind Isiah, Melo so far behind Nique and English, Steve Smith ahead of Mitch Richmond.

Interesting to see Ho Grant and Sheed around #80. That's probably roughly where I would put them, as well (not sure if I'd take them over Nance and Marion, though).

I'm just picking on some things here, but it's a good list, at first glance. Obviously I don't know your criteria, so I won't criticize anything. I'd just like to know your reasoning for some of those choices that I mentioned. Especially West over Olajuwon, Frazier over Wade, and Reggie so far ahead of Gervin.


Thanks for the comments! I'll try to address them point by point.

West vs. Hakeem:

I have wanted to started a thread about Wilt vs. Hakeem so that those who back Hakeem could better educate me on why he should rank so high. I watched him play and loved his game, but I think this is more of a case of me really, really appreciating West than denigrating Hakeem. I think Jerry West was absolutely blindingly brilliant on offense, and that's where the overall edge lies. He ranks within the top 20 on Score+ and PosScore+, and that is without accounting for the potential for efficiency to decrease with increased usage. Obviously he was a legendary shooter and a very good playmaker, but what impresses me the most is how he ramped it up in the playoffs. I've developed a playoff version of Score+ and O+ (a measure of ORating above expectations), and I'm working on a way to allocate credit with incomplete player data. Many of his playoff games came against the vaunted Celtics and their incredible defense. Unfortunately there is no opponent data for Boston specifically, but consider what he did against them in the playoffs:

1962: 31.1 PPG on 0.5522 TS when league average was 0.4787
1963: 29.5 PPG on 0.5221 TS when league average was 0.4925
1965: 33.8 PPG on 0.5122 TS when league average was 0.4849
1966: 33.9 PPG on 0.5872 TS when league average was 0.4865
1968: 31.3 PPG on 0.5590 TS when league average was 0.4978
1969: 37.9 PPG on 0.5656 TS when league average was 0.4907

Frazier vs. Wade:

Again, it's more of a case of me really appreciating Frazier than having a bad opinion of Wade. Wade has been an incredible player with an outstanding peak, but as with West, Frazier's ability to ramp up his game in the playoffs with highly efficient scoring, orchestrating New York's offense and being a huge part of their intense defense is something I really grew to appreciate. Perhaps I'm overvaluing him and undervaluing some of those other Knicks, and he doesn't have great longevity, but I think he was the main reason those Knick teams made 7 straight trips to the conference finals.

Dantley vs. Gervin:

I'm on board as a huge Dantley supporter, but both of these guys are known predominantly for their scoring, and, well, the direct impact of Dantley's scoring moved the needle for his team's scoring margin twice the amount that Gervin's did (Dantley with the all-time best Score+ of 4.283 vs. Gervin's still great 2.149). Neither was known for defense, and Gervin had more success as the main star of his team, but other advanced metrics also generally favor Dantley:

PER: Dantley 21.5, Gervin 21.4
WS/48: Dantley .189, Gervin .157
Total WS: Dantley 134.2, Gervin 116.3
BPM: Dantley 2.8, Gervin 1.5
VORP: Dantley 41.1, Gervin 30.4
Playoff PER: Gervin 21.2, Dantley 19.3
Playoff WS/48: Dantley .172, Gervin .146
Total Playoff WS: Gervin 9.7, Dantley 9.0

Hayes and Iverson:

Both of these guys are higher than I would have had them prior to participating in this project. Both had big problems with efficiency, though at least in Iverson's case that didn't preclude him from having an important positive impact on offense. Offense is the main thing Iverson brought to the table, and I just think there are many who were better than him (including Isiah, particularly in the playoffs). It seems Hayes' main value was on defense (and his ironman longevity), and he successfully incorporated his talent into a title with Washington, so perhaps I should put him a bit higher, but I don't think he was "other-worldly" in any respect other than his longevity.

Carmelo vs. English and Wilkins:

I appreciate Melo's last couple of seasons in New York, but prior to that, he was quite a poor playoff performer offensively (playoff Score+ of -0.478 and O+ of 1.90), and that is where he brings by far his most value. Nique is not particularly great in the playoffs, either, but I think he's got a big edge in the regular season.

Steve Smith vs. Mitch Richmond:

The recurring theme appears to be that perhaps I'm overrating playoff performance, but Steve Smith had an amazing playoff career. Perhaps I'm a little blinded by his years in Portland, but his ability to be such a dynamic and positive player in the postseason struck me more than Richmond's superior regular seasons.
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Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#162 » by asindc » Thu Jan 8, 2015 10:33 pm

Basketballefan wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:Okay I'm bold enough to handle the potential mockery that comes with making this preliminary list public. I put a few comments in spots where I thought people might have some significant "huh, what?" moments. Please note that this is very rough and will certainly change.


Start with some disclaimers:

Spoiler:
I am a Mavericks fan. This only potentially impacts 3 players on my top 50 list: Dirk, Kidd, and Nash. Now none of Kidd's peak or prime occured in Dallas, but I look beyond that so some bias could trickle in. Nash obviously began his prime in Dallas, but none of his peak years, still potential for bias.

I'm mainly interested in the actual careers guys had in the actual circumstances they were faced with. I'm not very interested in how they would do playing 30 years before or after they actually did or how they would perform on a "random team" or if two contemporaries swapped circumstances.


List:


1. Mr William Russell
2. Mike
3. KAJ

Spoiler:
And this ends the portion of my list where I feel locked in on having guys in the exact spot. Please not e this does not mean I'm not open to changing even these guys as a result of the discussion in this project. I'm simply saying as of today from 4 down I'm still not 100% certain, but in my mind I'm locked on these guys in these specific spots as of this moment.


4. Duncan
5. Magic
6. Shaq

Spoiler:
I go back and forth and back again on this trio. I feel like they all should clearly be ranked higher than Lebron at 7 but amongst them I'm still open to shifting them and think this project will help me clarify this. A week ago I had Shaq at the top of this group so needless to say this isn't set in stone. No Duncan winning the title this year isnt why he moved up relative to Shaq.


7. Lebron
8. Larry Legend
9. Wilt
10. Dream

Spoiler:
Wilt and Dream are very polarizing players on the board and I look forward to hopefully some really intelligent discussion on them. I know both players have some very passionate supporters.


11. Oscar
12. West
13. Kobe Bean
14. Dirk (see possible bias acknowledged at the top)
15. KG
16. David Robinson

Spoiler:
This is another very difficult group of 6 for me. I feel good about the 3 guards in their order, and the three bigs in theirs. Not at all certain of how to intermix them. I think Oscar is better than Dirk and for that reason alone the guards are listed above the bigs.


17. Dr. J

Spoiler:
This may well be too low for Julius, but I have a hard time with the ABA/NBA era and even without that its hard for me to say he should go above Kobe or Admiral. People make take issue with me here.


18. Mailman
19. Moses
20. Chuck
21. Hondo
22. Walt Frazier
23. John Stockton
24. Bob Pettit
25. Scottie Pippen
26. Elgin Baylor
27. Jason Kidd
28. Patrick Ewing
29. Deke

Spoiler:
I know people are going to be stunned to see Deke in the top 30 and that may well in fact be too high, but I think his defense is badly underrated, as is his offense for that matter. I expect him to possibly slide on my list, but probably not far.


30. Glove
31. Drexler
32. Steve Nash
33. Dwayne Wade
34. Rick Barry
35. Dave Cowens
36. Kevin Durant

Spoiler:
I really struggle with where to include Durant. I think he projects to be much higher than this, but as of today he probably deserves to be lower. This was a rough compromise.


37. Dennis Rodman

Spoiler:
I know a lot of people dismiss him as a rebound hunter and feel like some of his defensive reputation is overblown. I think he was a much better player at both ends than he's given credit for and one of the smarter basketball players as well.


38. Isiah Thomas
39. The Truth
40. Carmelo Anthony

Spoiler:
See Kevin Durant. This is probably too high for him, but I'm including him for now. I could easily see him outside the top 50.


41. Gervin
42. Nique
43. Kevin McHale
44. Ray Allen
45. Reggie Miller
46. Bob Lanier
47. Dwight Howard
48. AI
49 Walton
50. Mikan

Spoiler:
Note: I don't know quite what to do with Walton and Mikan. But I'm sticking them at the bottom of my list because I believe them significant enough to belong in this discussion somewhere

Mutumbo over Wade is a joke, no offense.


Mutumbo on any top 100 is a joke, primarily because of no offense. And no, his defensive play does not offset that nearly enough for inclusion.
Though Dr. J, Darnell Hillman, and Artis Gilmore's fros got most of the attention, George C. Trapp's fro should be noted for its bouncy qualities.
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Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#163 » by Quotatious » Thu Jan 8, 2015 10:44 pm

asindc wrote:Mutumbo on any top 100 is a joke, primarily because of no offense. And no, his defensive play does not offset that nearly enough for inclusion.

His offense (at least scoring) was decent (he could get you a very efficient 10-15 points, he definitely wasn't a non-factor offensively), and he's still much better than guys like Rodman or Ben Wallace in this regard.
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Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#164 » by asindc » Thu Jan 8, 2015 10:54 pm

Quotatious wrote:
asindc wrote:Mutumbo on any top 100 is a joke, primarily because of no offense. And no, his defensive play does not offset that nearly enough for inclusion.

His offense (at least scoring) was decent (he could get you a very efficient 10-15 points, he definitely wasn't a non-factor offensively), and he's still much better than guys like Rodman or Ben Wallace in this regard.


Mutumbo was an exceptionally good player, but there were/are 100 NBA players better than him. Mutumbo was a rich man's Tree Rollins at his peak.
Though Dr. J, Darnell Hillman, and Artis Gilmore's fros got most of the attention, George C. Trapp's fro should be noted for its bouncy qualities.
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Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#165 » by Owly » Thu Jan 8, 2015 10:57 pm

asindc wrote:
Basketballefan wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:Okay I'm bold enough to handle the potential mockery that comes with making this preliminary list public. I put a few comments in spots where I thought people might have some significant "huh, what?" moments. Please note that this is very rough and will certainly change.


Start with some disclaimers:

Spoiler:
I am a Mavericks fan. This only potentially impacts 3 players on my top 50 list: Dirk, Kidd, and Nash. Now none of Kidd's peak or prime occured in Dallas, but I look beyond that so some bias could trickle in. Nash obviously began his prime in Dallas, but none of his peak years, still potential for bias.

I'm mainly interested in the actual careers guys had in the actual circumstances they were faced with. I'm not very interested in how they would do playing 30 years before or after they actually did or how they would perform on a "random team" or if two contemporaries swapped circumstances.


List:


1. Mr William Russell
2. Mike
3. KAJ

Spoiler:
And this ends the portion of my list where I feel locked in on having guys in the exact spot. Please not e this does not mean I'm not open to changing even these guys as a result of the discussion in this project. I'm simply saying as of today from 4 down I'm still not 100% certain, but in my mind I'm locked on these guys in these specific spots as of this moment.


4. Duncan
5. Magic
6. Shaq

Spoiler:
I go back and forth and back again on this trio. I feel like they all should clearly be ranked higher than Lebron at 7 but amongst them I'm still open to shifting them and think this project will help me clarify this. A week ago I had Shaq at the top of this group so needless to say this isn't set in stone. No Duncan winning the title this year isnt why he moved up relative to Shaq.


7. Lebron
8. Larry Legend
9. Wilt
10. Dream

Spoiler:
Wilt and Dream are very polarizing players on the board and I look forward to hopefully some really intelligent discussion on them. I know both players have some very passionate supporters.


11. Oscar
12. West
13. Kobe Bean
14. Dirk (see possible bias acknowledged at the top)
15. KG
16. David Robinson

Spoiler:
This is another very difficult group of 6 for me. I feel good about the 3 guards in their order, and the three bigs in theirs. Not at all certain of how to intermix them. I think Oscar is better than Dirk and for that reason alone the guards are listed above the bigs.


17. Dr. J

Spoiler:
This may well be too low for Julius, but I have a hard time with the ABA/NBA era and even without that its hard for me to say he should go above Kobe or Admiral. People make take issue with me here.


18. Mailman
19. Moses
20. Chuck
21. Hondo
22. Walt Frazier
23. John Stockton
24. Bob Pettit
25. Scottie Pippen
26. Elgin Baylor
27. Jason Kidd
28. Patrick Ewing
29. Deke

Spoiler:
I know people are going to be stunned to see Deke in the top 30 and that may well in fact be too high, but I think his defense is badly underrated, as is his offense for that matter. I expect him to possibly slide on my list, but probably not far.


30. Glove
31. Drexler
32. Steve Nash
33. Dwayne Wade
34. Rick Barry
35. Dave Cowens
36. Kevin Durant

Spoiler:
I really struggle with where to include Durant. I think he projects to be much higher than this, but as of today he probably deserves to be lower. This was a rough compromise.


37. Dennis Rodman

Spoiler:
I know a lot of people dismiss him as a rebound hunter and feel like some of his defensive reputation is overblown. I think he was a much better player at both ends than he's given credit for and one of the smarter basketball players as well.


38. Isiah Thomas
39. The Truth
40. Carmelo Anthony

Spoiler:
See Kevin Durant. This is probably too high for him, but I'm including him for now. I could easily see him outside the top 50.


41. Gervin
42. Nique
43. Kevin McHale
44. Ray Allen
45. Reggie Miller
46. Bob Lanier
47. Dwight Howard
48. AI
49 Walton
50. Mikan

Spoiler:
Note: I don't know quite what to do with Walton and Mikan. But I'm sticking them at the bottom of my list because I believe them significant enough to belong in this discussion somewhere

Mutumbo over Wade is a joke, no offense.


Mutumbo on any top 100 is a joke, primarily because of no offense. And no, his defensive play does not offset that nearly enough for inclusion.

It's really easy to knock a list (particularly to pick at any one element of it), much harder to construct a coherent one.

But okay there's a place for criticism. That's cool. But "a joke" why? What is the (your) criteria? What do you believe is the bar at about 100 (what players would you suggest are about 100 level)? And then what constitutes "offense"? Is offensive rebounding part of it? Efficiency? Can a poor defensive player be top 100?
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Re: Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#166 » by SactoKingsFan » Fri Jan 9, 2015 12:50 am

asindc wrote:
Quotatious wrote:
asindc wrote:Mutumbo on any top 100 is a joke, primarily because of no offense. And no, his defensive play does not offset that nearly enough for inclusion.

His offense (at least scoring) was decent (he could get you a very efficient 10-15 points, he definitely wasn't a non-factor offensively), and he's still much better than guys like Rodman or Ben Wallace in this regard.


Mutumbo was an exceptionally good player, but there were/are 100 NBA players better than him. Mutumbo was a rich man's Tree Rollins at his peak.


Mutombo was a minus on offense but not to such a degree that it offsets most of his immense defensive impact. We're still talking about one of the best defensive anchors in NBA history with good longevity. Since you brought it up, who are the 100 players you'd put ahead of Deke?
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Re: Top 100 Project Pre-Lists 

Post#167 » by SinceGatlingWasARookie » Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:07 am

Just a thought about win shares. Win shares per 48 for last year's playoffs says that Tiago Splitter was the 2nd best player in the playoffs last season after LeBron out of everybody who played 100 minutes. From what I saw of the Spurs, Splitter was not one of the 6 best Spurs. If win shares per 48 does not correctly measure a player's value during the playoffs then is Win shares a suspect stat in general?

I understand why Splitter came out 2nd. He was part of a winning team. He did not play in the weaker 5 man units. But I think we all know he was not the best Spur.

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