How many players had a 3-year stretch better than 96-98 MJ?

[ardee]

Im trying to wrap my head around the fact that Kobe is debatable, yet KG and Timmy has gotten no play in this comparison. How come?

Duncan I forgot, but because Garnett has never had a three-year stretch as good as '06-'08 Kobe.

inb4 RAPM

[ardee]

Honestly I think that Bird may be debatable, so just 5 guys.

What are your thoughts on '84-'86 Bird vs. '96-'98 MJ?

[Colbinii]

Duncan I forgot, but because Garnett has never had a three-year stretch as good as '06-'08 Kobe.

inb4 RAPM

Garnett's 3 year stretch is very close to Kobe's.

28 PER, 55.5 TS%, 114 oRTG, 96 dRTG, 20 TRB%, 26 AST%, 11.5 TOV%. In 04 and 05 he led the league in WS, led the league in DRB% in 04, and anchored a 99 dRTG team.

He was a tier 2 offensive player and a Tier 1 defender.

[DQuinn1575]

WS per 48 RS


LeBron James 0.294
Michael Jordan 0.279
Wilt Chamberlain 0.272
Shaquille O'Neal 0.263
Larry Bird 0.233
Bill Russell 0.219
Kobe Bryant 0.210
Hakeem Olajuwon 0.209

Add in 3 championships, which I think only Shaq and Russell have here, and I really don't see a case for anyone better than Jordan in 96-98.

Are you really basing your entire debate on an awful stand alone stat like WS/48?

MJ: 27.4 PER, 56 TS%, 119 oRTG, 20 AST%, 3 Trups to Finals, 3 FMVP
LJ: 30.5 PER, 63 TS%, 121 oRTG, 34 AST%, 3 Trips to Finals, 2 FMVP

I don't see how you can honestly say MJ was better than LeBron for that stretch.

No I'm not basing it entirely on WS/48, otherwise I would say that LeBron was better.

And it's not like PER is a better stat than WS/48


Winning % .825 versus .722 - that's a 59 win team versus a 67 win team

8 wins a season

Average SRS of 5.63 versus 9.91 - over 4 points a game

Finals record 12-6 versus 9-8


LeBron was more physically talented 2012-2014 versus Jordan - but Jordan won more, with a relatively similar roster - I don't think Pippen/Rodman and company are 8 games a season/4 points per game better than Wade/Bosh and company.

LeBron, Shaq, and Wilt have a case that they were better than MJ 96-98 - and Russell a case for being as good.
And I would throw in Kareem 71-73 or 72-74.

But I definitely don't think Bird or Hakeem were better than MJ.

[NO-KG-AI]

I like how the new thing against Garnett, people pretend that RAPM is the only statistic that ever supported him. Like he didn't record the highest PER and winshare total by a PF ever in a season. Pick a metric, any metric that isn't a non statistical narrative, and KG ranks at, or near the top of it In comparison to Kobe, we have to keep dismissing everything but "omg ringz", but we aren't supposed to talk about rings when Michael is involved. Uh huh.

And lol at Kobe being close. If by close, people mean, not close at all, then yes, Kobe's stretch is close. Mike's 1995-1996 post season PER is probably the most disappointing one in his career, and it equals Kobe's career high

And are we including 05-06 to 07-08, or are we going from 06-07 to 08-09? Either way..

[WhateverBro]

Im trying to wrap my head around the fact that Kobe is debatable, yet KG and Timmy has gotten no play in this comparison. How come?

How do i also forget Timmy .......
KG idk.... He has very good stats but i don't know if he 3 great years like the others has been mentioned.

03-05.

[WhateverBro]

Im trying to wrap my head around the fact that Kobe is debatable, yet KG and Timmy has gotten no play in this comparison. How come?

Duncan I forgot, but because Garnett has never had a three-year stretch as good as '06-'08 Kobe.

inb4 RAPM

I expected this response from you so instead of making this about Kobe, let's try this:

What's the difference between KGs 03-05 stretch, and whatever 3-year stretch you favor for Duncan?

[ardee]

Im trying to wrap my head around the fact that Kobe is debatable, yet KG and Timmy has gotten no play in this comparison. How come?

Duncan I forgot, but because Garnett has never had a three-year stretch as good as '06-'08 Kobe.

inb4 RAPM

I expected this response from you so instead of making this about Kobe, let's try this:

What's the difference between KGs 03-05 stretch, and whatever 3-year stretch you favor for Duncan?

I'd go with 2002-2004 Duncan or 2001-2003 Duncan. Either way, Duncan achieved much more success with a supporting cast that was not overwhelmingly better than Garnett's. He's more reliable in the Playoffs and as I stressed in the top 100 project, I prefer his rim protection to KG's hipster 'horizontal linebacker' position. All you need to do is look at the numbers of how the Wolves' Playoffs opponents were getting to the rim and you know that Duncan's defense made a significantly greater difference.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[tsherkin]

IMike's 1995-1996 post season PER is probably the most disappointing one in his career, and it equals Kobe's career high

Not as an attack on your point, but an examination of the idea:

Jordan

96 RS:
22.6 FGA/g, 49.6% FG, 30.4 ppg (league high), 58.2% TS, 29.4 PER, 33.4% USG (league-high), 124 ORTG, 14.2 OWS (league-high), .317 WS/48 (league-high)

96 PS:

22.6 FGA/g, 45.9% FG, 30.7 ppg (playoff high), 56.4% TS, 26.7 PER, 32.9% USG, 123 ORTG, 3.1 OWS (PS high), .306 WS/48 (PS high)

So at first glance, it's still staggering offense in the playoffs compared to the regular season, and he was 32 years old. I wouldn't call it hugely disappointing at all, really, especially given his USG/TOV/efficiency ratio.

It's not as overtly dominant in high PER as many of his previous seasons, but he was still owning the league as the top scorer and leading out in WS/48, killing the efficiency stats, etc, etc. League average TS% in 96 was 54.2%, so even his PS true shooting percentage was +2.2% over that league average. Playoff average TS% was actually 53.8%, so he was even +2.6% in the playoffs. That scoring differential looks a lot like prime Kobe, with the big difference coming from MJ's 7.9% TOV against 32.9% USG (and Jordan's superior offensive rebounding), which is insane.

EC1:

34.3 mpg in a 3-game sweep of the Heat.

30.0 ppg, 20.7 FGA/g, 51.6% FG
60.9% TS, 34,3% USG, 5.1% TOV, 130 ORTG

Destruction.

ECS:

5 G, 36.0 ppg, 29.4 FGA/g, 44.2% FG, 43 mpg
53.4% TS, 37.7% USG, 5.1% TOV, 121 ORTG

Insanity; not the GREATEST scoring efficiency, but 9 turnovers in 5 games against 147 shots and 22 assists. Just wicked ball protection despite volume, and big minutes, too. That was huge. Eat it, New York; Jordan doesn't lose to Ewing, lol.

ECF:

Rematch with the Magic a year later.

4 G, 29.5 ppg, 18.8 FGA/g, 52.0% FG, 40.8 mpg
62.5% TS, 30.1% USG, 10.4% TOV, 131 ORTG

So yeah, he was angry about the year before, clearly, lol. Just murderous efficiency, he was toying with them and, as was the case with Miami, he was able to take a bit of a backseat compared to the sort of load he handled against the Knicks.

FIN:

6 G, 27.3 ppg, 20.5 FGA/g, 41.5% FG, 42.0 mpg
53.8% TS, 31.0% USG, 10.6% TOV, 116 ORTG

This was a highly mortal series for Jordan; in the last 3 games, he posted a 48.5% TS (peaking at 53.7% in G5) and a 104 ORTG.

Jordan scored 11 in the 3rd in G4, and Pip went 1-5 with 5 turnovers in the 4th to give that one to Seattle.
MJ was significantly frustrated by Payton in G5 for 3 quarters, barking all the time about fouls and such and then he missed a key attempt late in the 4th to tie.

Then he had a game a lot like Kobe's G7 against Boston in 2010 to close out. 5/19 FG, 11/12 FT, 43 minutes, 22 points. 9 boards, 7 assists.

Ultimately, he had 3 incredible rounds and then had a rough series against the Sonics in the back half of the series. He was more mortal with his diminished athleticism, but he still torched everyone aside from the second-best defensive team in the league, which wielded the DPOY out on the perimeter. Not bad, really (and even still, because of his TOV/USG ratio, he ended up being more effective than peak Kobe on the balance of the series.

I think that's a bit more balanced a look than "one of the most disappointing postseasons of his career," anyway.

[ronnymac2]

I prefer his rim protection to KG's hipster 'horizontal linebacker' position.

Those countercultural PC Board posters are disrupting the hegemony of traditional basketball dialogue. Probably have weird, flimsy haircuts, too.

[Nikos Beard]

Key words here are "disregarding team success and accolades".

If we are looking purely at level of play as an individual basketball player and completely disregarding results which are heavily dependent on supporting casts and circumstances, it is pretty disrespectful to completely scoff and laugh at 2006-2008 Kobe being in this discussion.

From 2006-2008 his stats were 32/6/5/2/1 on 57% TS in the regular season, and 30/6/5/2/1 on 58% TS in the playoffs. And that is while being the singular focus of the opposing defense every game, with just Lamar Odom to help. His supporting casts in 2006 and 2007 were absolute garbage - Smush Parker, Chris Mihm, and Kwame Brown were his 3rd, 4th, and 5th options. And even Lamar Odom, despite being a good player, is nowhere near good enough to be a #2 option. Meanwhile Jordan had Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Toni Kukoc, Ron Harper, etc. The general point here is that people often unfairly dismiss Kobe's peak on the basis of team success, when in reality if he had just 1-2 players on the level of actual #2 and #3 options (like Gasol and Bynum later on) during those few years, we very well might be discussing Kobe's peak in a much different way. We cannot underestimate the impact of good teammates - when you are already an unstoppable player, having competent teammates to take pressure off makes things even easier and can take your game to a new level.

Kobe from 2006-2008 was one of the most incredible players ever, it is a shame to see him consistently underrated solely because of the team circumstances.

[Melodabeast]

Derailing

[Melodabeast]

Comment on the post, not the poster, and do not derail discussion.

[Melodabeast]

Key words here are "disregarding team success and accolades".

If we are looking purely at level of play as an individual basketball player and completely disregarding results which are heavily dependent on supporting casts and circumstances, it is pretty disrespectful to completely scoff and laugh at 2006-2008 Kobe being in this discussion.

From 2006-2008 his stats were 32/6/5/2/1 on 57% TS in the regular season, and 30/6/5/2/1 on 58% TS in the playoffs. And that is while being the singular focus of the opposing defense every game, with just Lamar Odom to help. His supporting casts in 2006 and 2007 were absolute garbage - Smush Parker, Chris Mihm, and Kwame Brown were his 3rd, 4th, and 5th options. And even Lamar Odom, despite being a good player, is nowhere near good enough to be a #2 option. Meanwhile Jordan had Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Toni Kukoc, Ron Harper, etc. The general point here is that people often unfairly dismiss Kobe's peak on the basis of team success, when in reality if he had just 1-2 players on the level of actual #2 and #3 options (like Gasol and Bynum later on) during those few years, we very well might be discussing Kobe's peak in a much different way. We cannot underestimate the impact of good teammates - when you are already an unstoppable player, having competent teammates to take pressure off makes things even easier and can take your game to a new level.

Kobe from 2006-2008 was one of the most incredible players ever, it is a shame to see him consistently underrated solely because of the team circumstances.

great post.

[trex_8063]

Very few can be said to be better with a high degree of confidence, imo.

Lebron '12-'14
Shaq '00-'02

Those are two I feel really confident claiming. I feel like Kareem '71-'73 and Wilt '66-'68 are "reasonably safe" picks, too (though not entirely free from scrutiny, era equivalency being the tough nut as always); if '63 weren't such a disappointing year as far as how it translated into wins, Wilt from '62-'64 could perhaps be claimed, too. After that, everything gets very debatable, imo.

Just going from the post shot-clock era, some other potentials worth mentioning:
Larry Bird '85-'87
Hakeem Olajuwon '93-'95
maybe Oscar Robertson '64-'66, Bill Russell '63-'65, or Elgin Baylor '61-'63????

I feel even less confident about, but will mention anyway:
Tim Duncan '02-'04
Kevin Garnett ~'03-'05 or maybe '04-'06.

[WhateverBro]

I'd go with 2002-2004 Duncan or 2001-2003 Duncan. Either way, Duncan achieved much more success with a supporting cast that was not overwhelmingly better than Garnett's. He's more reliable in the Playoffs and as I stressed in the top 100 project, I prefer his rim protection to KG's hipster 'horizontal linebacker' position. All you need to do is look at the numbers of how the Wolves' Playoffs opponents were getting to the rim and you know that Duncan's defense made a significantly greater difference.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

Ok, let's compare the two three year stretches without using RAPM.

Regular season:

02-04 TD: 23.8 ppg (56 TS %), 12.7 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.7 bpg, 0.8 spg, 3 TOV, 39 mpg. 112 ORtg, 93 DRtg. 27 PER.

03-05 KG: 23.1 ppg (55.5 TS %), 13.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.7 bpg, 1.4 spg, 2.7 TOV, 39.3 mpg. 114 ORtg, 96 DRtg. 28 PER.

Playoffs:

02-04 TD: 24.7 ppg, (56.7 TS %), 14.2 rpg, 4.7 apg, 3.2 bpg, 0.7 spg, 3.6 TOV, 42 mpg. 112 ORtg, 94 DRtg. 28.2 PER.
03-05 KG: 25 ppg (52 TS %), 14.9 rpg, 5.1 apg, 2.1 bpg, 1.4 spg, 3.9 TOV, 43.7 mpg. 101 ORtg, 97 DRtg. 25 PER.

Don't see much seperation here. Garnett has lower efficiency in the playoffs but this is also a pretty small sample (24 games, compared to Duncans 43 games in the playoffs during this period).

The point you made about you preferring Duncans defense, and that looking at the teams Wolves faced finishing at the rim would be evidence of this sounds like a made up argument with no statistical support.. But if you indeed have looked into it, I'd love to compare the numbers. Anyhow, I decided to look up the numbers for the '03 playoffs since both Spurs and Wolves faced the same team (LA) in the playoffs and played the same amount of games against them. Disclaimer, very small sample which I hate but I have no time for looking into all of their playoff games during this time span.

Against the Spurs, Lakers attempted 25.2 % of their baskets in the restricted area.
Against Minny, Lakers attempted 26.3 % of their baskets in the restricted area.

Against the Spurs, Lakers attempted 44.8 % of their baskets in the paint.
Against Minny, Lakers attempted 44.6 % of their baskets in the paint.

Maybe you've analyzed more numbers and noticed that there is indeed a significant difference at how teams were getting to the rim against Minnesota compared to San Antonio? I'd love to see the numbers to form an opinion. At this point, I just don't agree that Duncans defense was more valuable than KGs, I'd actually argue the opposite if anything.

I honestly don't see a significant difference between the players over their peaks and career, which is why I find it mind boggling that people are so quick to toss in Duncan into these conversations just to completely disregard KG. The winning bias is strong.

[tsherkin]

From 2006-2008 his stats were 32/6/5/2/1 on 57% TS in the regular season, and 30/6/5/2/1 on 58% TS in the playoffs. And that is while being the singular focus of the opposing defense every game, with just Lamar Odom to help.

Not a bad place to start.

For some further perspective:

TS% Relative to League Average, By Year:

Jordan 96-98: +4.0%, +3.1%, +0.9%

Bryant 06-08: +2.4%, +3.9%, +3.6%

So Bryant's scoring efficiency was more impressive than Jordan's after 96, when Jordan was in his mid-30s (and especially in 98, when he had various injuries (especially that knuckle on his shooting hand) that year. Ultimately, though, there are other factors at play, namely Jordan's ability to protect the ball while remaining a high-volume scoring threat, one atop the league as the leading scorer each year.

The results are close enough that it's worth discussing at this stage, so let's peek under the hood a bit more.

Bryant logged 114, 115 and 115 as his ORTGs in those years, with .224, .199 and .208 WS/48. Kobe posted 38.7 (league high), 33.6 and 31.4% USG those years.

Jordan logged 124, 121 and 114 ORTGs those years, with .317, .283 (both led the league) and .238 WS/48. He posted 33.3, 33.2 and 33.7% USG by year, and led the league in that regard annually.

So both of these guys were high-usage players; both of them were huge, legendary offensive players. Jordan was noticeably better all three seasons when you look at ORTG and WS/48 (which form but one perspective, not the whole truth, obviously).

Now, the playoffs.

Jordan:

96: 56.4% TS / 123 ORTG | RS lg av 54.2% TS, 107.6 | PS lg av 53.8% TS, 106.8 ORTG
97: 52.4% TS / 114 ORTG | RS lg av 53.6% TS, 106.7 | PS lg av 53.5% TS, 107.4 ORTG
98: 54.5% TS / 117 ORTG | RS lg av 52.4% TS, 105.0 | PS lg av 52.9% TS, 105.6 ORTG

So that means that he was, in the playoffs, at:

96: +2.6% TS, +16.2 ORTG (led PS in OWS and WS/48)
97: -1.1% TS, +6.6 ORTG (led PS in OWS)
98: +1.6% TS, +11.4 ORTG (led PS in OWS)

So, some variance in scoring efficiency as expected. Better relative to league average in 96 and 98 than 97, which surprised me a tad.

Now let's look at Kobe the same way

Bryant:

06: 58.7% TS / 108 ORTG | RS lg av 53.5% TS, 107.6 | PS lg av 54.7% TS, 108.2 ORTG
07: 56.1% TS / 111 ORTG | RS lg av 54.1% TS, 107.6 | PS lg av 53.0% TS, 104.9 ORTG
08: 57.7% TS / 113 ORTG | RS lg av 54.0% TS, 107.6 | PS lg av 53.2% TS, 107.4 ORTG

So...

06: +4.0% TS, -0.2 ORTG (probably more like +0.0, since seasonal player ORTGs aren't done on b-r in decimal form)
07: +3.1% TS, +6.1 ORTG
08: +4.5% TS, +5.6 ORTG

So we see the picture of Kobe's scoring efficiency looking better in the playoffs than second-three-peat Jordan. That isn't a HUGE surprise given the rules-change era in which he was playing, but it is also a credit to Bryant's ability. We ALSO see that Jordan mostly obliterates him in terms of ORTG differential in the playoffs, save for Jordan's 97 postseason, which equates with Kobe's best in the given period.

With respect to era, we're talking about the point at which the league started to REALLY see the impact of heavy hand-checking and significantly lowered pace promoting defensive efficacy. The work of the Bad Boys and Riley's Knicks had culminated in THIS, and then things would slide even further moving towards the 03-04 season, and the rules changes which followed. 05-07 or so was a period of wild offense in the league before defenses adjusted again. I suppose you can counter with the pulled-in 3 from 95-97 as well, but I don't think that really makes up the difference.

Basically, to my eye, it looks like Kobe's scoring held up more effectively in those seasons, but that Jordan's superior all-around game and lower-turnover performances made a fairly significant difference in their respective offensive value, leaning this in his direction... the more so impressive because he was in his mid-30s at the time and Kobe was in his late 20s.

Again we see some of the differences between MJ and Kobe in really exaggerated form, right? Kobe was really good... and at his absolute pinnacle, he looks a lot like Jordan in a down year in his mid-30s. That's about as high a compliment as can be paid to a perimeter player in my book. Kobe's to me a borderline top-10 all-time choice and the second-best shooting guard around, particularly since I've come to consider West and Oscar points.

His supporting casts in 2006 and 2007 were absolute garbage - Smush Parker, Chris Mihm, and Kwame Brown were his 3rd, 4th, and 5th options.

Supporting cast is primarily relevant to team success, which is explicitly not on the table here, thus rendering this a moot point.



Again, it's pretty clear that it isn't a tragedy that we're discussing Kobe and MJ in the same breath. The differences between the two are there and they lean notably in Jordan's favor, but Kobe has had a remarkable career in his own right, right up there in many ways. Kobe approaches Jordan's play during the second three-peat... that's damned impressive, because in that stretch, Jordan was the best player in the league and playing some fantastic, utterly phenomenal basketball. Not quite as impressive as in his youth, but for so very few is it true that post-30 ball is MORE impressive than play at the height of their physical prowess anyway, so that isn't super relevant. And this thread doesn't really make special provision for the half-decade or so of age difference between the two, it just asks the two stretches to be directly equated. MJ appears to still come out on top to my eye in terms of individual performance.

It becomes more impressive when you consider Scottie crapping the bed in the playoffs, Rodman's lack of a scoring game and so forth, and then the defensive work slowing the Jazz, etc, etc. It just appears that from most angles, MJ was more impressive than Kobe, even if you don't factor in the more offense-friendly league environment in which Kobe was operating during the given stretch.

Food for thought.

[NO-KG-AI]

*tsherkin wizardy*

That kind of was my point. Mike's weak run wasn't weak at all. The only other times he had worse playoff runs(PER wise) was as a rookie, and the year he came back off the baseball layoff.

Also, before coming in to blast me, I don't think KG had a better 3 year stretch than Mike's 96-98 either. He wasn't early Mike, but he was still damn near flawless in terms of 3 year runs go. I definitely don't think guys like Duncan even can match it.

[tsherkin]

*tsherkin wizardy*

That kind of was my point. Mike's weak run wasn't weak at all. The only other times he had worse playoff runs(PER wise) was as a rookie, and the year he came back off the baseball layoff.

Also, before coming in to blast me, I don't think KG had a better 3 year stretch than Mike's 96-98 either. He wasn't early Mike, but he was still damn near flawless in terms of 3 year runs go. I definitely don't think guys like Duncan even can match it.

Yeah, by his own standards, he wasn't as impressive as first three-peat Mike, but then, that's not really fair to expect. The fact that he'd tweaked his game over a summer to account for his diminished athleticism, then returned after a pretty damned fine run in the 95 playoffs and then did all of THAT for three years is staggering. His ability to dominate games was just properly jaw-dropping.

[colts18]

From 02-04, KG averaged 25-15-5, 4 stl+blk in the playoffs. He belongs in the conversation.