RealGM Top 100 List #42

[lukekarts]

Firstly, lot's of insight so far in this topic and it has genuinely been a good read.

However, nothing has convinced me to vote for Schayes, yet.

I've been relatively quiet since asking penbeast to differentiate between Dwight, Cowens and Reed; and of course Zo wasn't even in the discussion at that time.

Personally, I've always leaned towards Zo over Dwight. There are certain limitations to Dwight's game that Zo didn't have. Yes, Dwight has been a higher volume and more efficient scorer for his career, but he's also very limited offensively; he's a finisher not a shot creator, he can get flustered and severely limited by his free throw shooting. Neither to me are clear #1 options without a good volume of support on the perimeter. Zo was a little more versatile, and because of that, dependable offensively. Not an elite volume / efficient scorer, but not one who'd find himself limited in certain games either.

Dwight has the rebounding edge for sure, whilst Zo was one of the most disciplined and greatest shot blockers of all time, right up there with Hakeem and Mutombo in defensive insticts.

But where Zo really clinches this for me is his 'mental' traits. His leadership, his composure, his determination, his positioning, his motivational qualities, his 'do or die' attitude. I can't ever imagine Dwight playing like Zo did in the 2006 finals or showing anything close to a resemblence of that passion and committment. I'm pretty sure team-mates took more confidence and inspiration from Zo's level of play than they ever will from Dwight's.

VOTE: Alonzo Mourning

[RayBan-Sematra]

VOTE : Mourning

Not really sure if Shayes has the edge over Mourning in anything besides durability/longevitiy.
Mourning is a far greater defensive force and he is probably the better rebounder in a vacuum.
Offensively Mourning gives you the same volume on much better effiency.
Even if Shayes was more efficient in this era I don't seem him equaling or surpassing Mourning at it.
I am not sure if his set shot would be as useful in more modern era but perhaps he could adjust if it wasn't.
He was also a solid rebounder. Never heard anyone call him a good passer and have heard others imply the opposite.

[trex_8063]

Consider that for much of his career, Schayes was a guy scoring maybe a bit over 20 points per 100 possessions with a TS% maybe 3 above league average. If I do a search of guys hitting that 20/+3 threshold while playing over 2000 minutes last year, do you know how many guys make the cut?

27.

Felt like getting a little more precise with this one.

During what might be called his peak 5-year period ('54-'58), Schayes's estimated pts per 100 possessions was actually ~24.7 (also 15.5 reb and 3.6 ast, fwiw). And he's not ~+3% to league in TS%; he averaged +4.8% to league during that stretch (Dirk is +5.2% for his career; so....within this stretch, at least, he's in the same neighborhood as career avg Dirk, which is pretty darn good imo).
And again, this isn't over a single peak season or two, this is over a FIVE-year span.

I looked at the last FOUR NBA seasons ('11 thru '14) filtering for >= 24.5 pts/100 possessions, >=.575 TS% (that's---on average--- +4.4% to league over that span), >=42 games played, >=27.0 mpg.
A total of 47 seasons were identified, or an average of just under 12 per year (not 27), which achieved similar to what Schayes was averaging over that 5-year span. Below is the list of company doing similar in the last four years, and how many times each did it:

Lebron James (x4)
Kevin Durant (x4)
Chris Paul (x3)
Stephen Curry (x3)
James Harden (x3)
Dwyane Wade (x2)
Dwight Howard (x2)
Dirk Nowitzki (x2)
Paul Pierce (x2)
Kevin Martin (x2)
Kevin Love (x2)
Chris Bosh (x2)
Nikola Pekovic (x1)
Kevin Garnett (x1)
Ryan Anderson (x1)
Chauncey Billups (x1)
Pau Gasol (x1)
Anthony Davis (x1)
Goran Dragic (x1)
Manu Ginobili (x1)
Tony Parker (x1)
Blake Griffin (x1)
Andrew Bynum (x1)
Paul Millsap (x1)
Marcin Gortat (x1)
Wesley Matthews (x1)
Eric Bledsoe (x1)
Gerald Green (x1)

So a few outlier seasons from some mildly unexpected sources, but mostly it's your Lebrons, Durants, Currys, Hardens, etc who were doing it.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Consider that for much of his career, Schayes was a guy scoring maybe a bit over 20 points per 100 possessions with a TS% maybe 3 above league average. If I do a search of guys hitting that 20/+3 threshold while playing over 2000 minutes last year, do you know how many guys make the cut?

27.

Felt like getting a little more precise with this one.

During what might be called his peak 5-year period ('54-'58), Schayes's estimated pts per 100 possessions was actually ~24.7 (also 15.5 reb and 3.6 ast, fwiw). And he's not ~+3% to league in TS%; he averaged +4.8% to league during that stretch (Dirk is +5.2% for his career; so....within this stretch, at least, he's in the same neighborhood as career avg Dirk, which is pretty darn good imo).
And again, this isn't over a single peak season or two, this is over a FIVE-year span.

I looked at the last FOUR NBA seasons ('11 thru '14) filtering for >= 24.5 pts/100 possessions, >=.575 TS% (that's---on average--- +4.4% to league over that span), >=42 games played, >=27.0 mpg.
A total of 47 seasons were identified, or an average of just under 12 per year (not 27), which achieved similar to what Schayes was averaging over that 5-year span. Below is the list of company doing similar in the last four years, and how many times each did it:

Lebron James (x4)
Kevin Durant (x4)
Chris Paul (x3)
Stephen Curry (x3)
James Harden (x3)
Dwyane Wade (x2)
Dwight Howard (x2)
Dirk Nowitzki (x2)
Paul Pierce (x2)
Kevin Martin (x2)
Kevin Love (x2)
Chris Bosh (x2)
Nikola Pekovic (x1)
Kevin Garnett (x1)
Ryan Anderson (x1)
Chauncey Billups (x1)
Pau Gasol (x1)
Anthony Davis (x1)
Goran Dragic (x1)
Manu Ginobili (x1)
Tony Parker (x1)
Blake Griffin (x1)
Andrew Bynum (x1)
Paul Millsap (x1)
Marcin Gortat (x1)
Wesley Matthews (x1)
Eric Bledsoe (x1)
Gerald Green (x1)

So a few outlier seasons from some mildly unexpected sources, but mostly it's your Lebrons, Durants, Currys, Hardens, etc who were doing it.

Good post.
Just wanted to add that I am not that into relative TS% when using it the way you used it.
Basically if you are gonna say a player would be less or more efficient in a different era you gotta explain why unless the reasoning is obvious (comparing early 00 wings to late 00 wings etc...).
Otherwise it is just pure speculation.

[trex_8063]

Good post.
Just wanted to add that I am not that into relative TS% when using it the way you used it.
Basically if you are gonna say a player would be less or more efficient in a different era you gotta explain why unless the reasoning is obvious (comparing early 00 wings to late 00 wings etc...).
Otherwise it is just pure speculation.

Well, let me be clear that era-translation speculating makes up only a very small portion of my process or criteria. For the most part, I'm with moonbeam in that I largely look at what they DID accomplish within their own era, while giving consideration to the strength of said era. Translating and speculating on era portability is just that: speculation. I've soapboxed in the past about being cautious in this regard, as we should consider that a VERY noisy means of evaluation, imo. I tend to weight the actual historical record more heavily than my own speculation.

Anyway, tbh, I suspect Schaye's efficiency in a modern context would be similar (possibly even marginally better)......but on significantly lower volume. Whereas I very much disagree with the notion that he was "dependent" on his set-shot in his career, as Doc contends, I do feel that---to some degree anyway---he may be relegated to a spot-up shooter type of offensive role in the modern league.

[cyclix]

VOTE: Alonzo Mourning

He was an absolute beast. Peak Zo was nobody to mess with. Dolph was holding it down in his era, but Zo was an animal in his heyday.

[Owly]

Vote Schayes

Because....
- He has one of the best peaks left (I think maybe only McGrady and Neil Johnston better by the boxscore)
- Close to the top of the list by career value added (by some numbers behind Parish, but that might be undselling the value of his higher apex years)

He's also got the accolades/awards and for those who care about that sort of thing was (clearly) the best player on a champ.

I'm not too into time machine stuff, and I'll err on the side of he was great and had a very large impact in his era. FWIW I think some bigs have/do get off what are basically set shots and having 3 point range and drawing a lot of fouls are highly valued today. So I'm not comfortable in knocking him because his release wasn't always similar to the modern one, which wasn't fully established (and again, fwiw ft% is indicative an excellent shooting touch).

[Clyde Frazier]

VOTE: Alonzo Mourning

He was an absolute beast. Peak Zo was nobody to mess with. Dolph was holding it down in his era, but Zo was an animal in his heyday.

If you want to become an eligible voter, vote over the next few spots with reasoning and you should get added. As of now, your vote doesn't count.

[penbeast0]

Alonzo Mourning – ronnymac2, E-Balla, drza, Doctor MJ, tsherkin, penbeast0, Notanoob, john248, Quotatious, lukekarts, RayBan-Sematra

Shayes – trex_8063, Clyde Frazier, Moonbeam, Owly

Not registered (cyclix)

[penbeast0]

Alonzo Mourning – ronnymac2, E-Balla, drza, Doctor MJ, tsherkin, penbeast0, Notanoob, john248, Quotatious, lukekarts, RayBan-Sematra

Shayes – trex_8063, Clyde Frazier, Moonbeam, Owly

Not registered (cyclix)

[penbeast0]

Calling it for Zo.

[Doctor MJ]

Consider that for much of his career, Schayes was a guy scoring maybe a bit over 20 points per 100 possessions with a TS% maybe 3 above league average. If I do a search of guys hitting that 20/+3 threshold while playing over 2000 minutes last year, do you know how many guys make the cut?

27.

Felt like getting a little more precise with this one.

Cool.

During what might be called his peak 5-year period ('54-'58), Schayes's estimated pts per 100 possessions was actually ~24.7 (also 15.5 reb and 3.6 ast, fwiw). And he's not ~+3% to league in TS%; he averaged +4.8% to league during that stretch (Dirk is +5.2% for his career; so....within this stretch, at least, he's in the same neighborhood as career avg Dirk, which is pretty darn good imo).
And again, this isn't over a single peak season or two, this is over a FIVE-year span.

Okay, I haven't worked it out in such detail, so I'll accept your numbers.

My first thought is, given your reference back to Dirk, that Dirk was a guy in his prime scoring more like 35 points per 100 possessions, so let's keep that in perspective a bit. If Dirk cut back his volume to by 30%, it's safe to say that his efficiency could truly become astronomical.

My second thought is to reiterate that I'm just not that impressed by domination in the '50s period, and it's his struggle to scale as competition went up along with him having a body that makes me think, "Seriously, can this guy scale?", that's my concern here.

But I'll agree that being around 5% above league efficiency is definitely being efficient.

I looked at the last FOUR NBA seasons ('11 thru '14) filtering for >= 24.5 pts/100 possessions, >=.575 TS% (that's---on average--- +4.4% to league over that span), >=42 games played, >=27.0 mpg.
A total of 47 seasons were identified, or an average of just under 12 per year (not 27), which achieved similar to what Schayes was averaging over that 5-year span. Below is the list of company doing similar in the last four years, and how many times each did it:

Lebron James (x4)
Kevin Durant (x4)
Chris Paul (x3)
Stephen Curry (x3)
James Harden (x3)
Dwyane Wade (x2)
Dwight Howard (x2)
Dirk Nowitzki (x2)
Paul Pierce (x2)
Kevin Martin (x2)
Kevin Love (x2)
Chris Bosh (x2)
Nikola Pekovic (x1)
Kevin Garnett (x1)
Ryan Anderson (x1)
Chauncey Billups (x1)
Pau Gasol (x1)
Anthony Davis (x1)
Goran Dragic (x1)
Manu Ginobili (x1)
Tony Parker (x1)
Blake Griffin (x1)
Andrew Bynum (x1)
Paul Millsap (x1)
Marcin Gortat (x1)
Wesley Matthews (x1)
Eric Bledsoe (x1)
Gerald Green (x1)

So a few outlier seasons from some mildly unexpected sources, but mostly it's your Lebrons, Durants, Currys, Hardens, etc who were doing it.

Okay. Cool.

[penbeast0]

...

Okay, I haven't worked it out in such detail, so I'll accept your numbers.

My first thought is, given your reference back to Dirk, that Dirk was a guy in his prime scoring more like 35 points per 100 possessions, so let's keep that in perspective a bit. If Dirk cut back his volume to by 30%, it's safe to say that his efficiency could truly become astronomical.
...

But I'll agree that being around 5% above league efficiency is definitely being efficient....

I don't think the idea that a major volume scorer (above 25 shots/game) who cuts his volume to around 20 shots/game (Schayes, with his foul draw, took that many) raises his efficiency considerably is anywhere close to a proven fact or a given. Wilt, yes. Most of the other examples I can think of (McAdoo, Maravich, Archibald, etc.) didn't increase and some decreased as the teams stopped setting up the offense around them as much.

Can someone run the numbers that has historical stats in a searchable format?

[trex_8063]

Okay, I haven't worked it out in such detail, so I'll accept your numbers.

My first thought is, given your reference back to Dirk, that Dirk was a guy in his prime scoring more like 35 points per 100 possessions, so let's keep that in perspective a bit. If Dirk cut back his volume to by 30%, it's safe to say that his efficiency could truly become astronomical.

Yeah, I didn't mean to say "see, as good a scorer as Dirk" there, though I can see how the wording totally implies that. I just wanted a current easily recognizable reference to show what kind of neighborhood he was in (efficiency-wise).

My second thought is to reiterate that I'm just not that impressed by domination in the '50s period....

....unless your name is Bill Russell. j/k (well, sorta...)

But I'll agree that being around 5% above league efficiency is definitely being efficient.

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

I looked at the last FOUR NBA seasons ('11 thru '14) filtering for >= 24.5 pts/100 possessions, >=.575 TS% (that's---on average--- +4.4% to league over that span), >=42 games played, >=27.0 mpg.
A total of 47 seasons were identified, or an average of just under 12 per year (not 27), which achieved similar to what Schayes was averaging over that 5-year span. Below is the list of company doing similar in the last four years, and how many times each did it:

Lebron James (x4)
Kevin Durant (x4)
Chris Paul (x3)
Stephen Curry (x3)
James Harden (x3)
Dwyane Wade (x2)
Dwight Howard (x2)
Dirk Nowitzki (x2)
Paul Pierce (x2)
Kevin Martin (x2)
Kevin Love (x2)
Chris Bosh (x2)
Nikola Pekovic (x1)
Kevin Garnett (x1)
Ryan Anderson (x1)
Chauncey Billups (x1)
Pau Gasol (x1)
Anthony Davis (x1)
Goran Dragic (x1)
Manu Ginobili (x1)
Tony Parker (x1)
Blake Griffin (x1)
Andrew Bynum (x1)
Paul Millsap (x1)
Marcin Gortat (x1)
Wesley Matthews (x1)
Eric Bledsoe (x1)
Gerald Green (x1)

So a few outlier seasons from some mildly unexpected sources, but mostly it's your Lebrons, Durants, Currys, Hardens, etc who were doing it.

Okay. Cool.

OK.....thanks??

[Doctor MJ]

...

Okay, I haven't worked it out in such detail, so I'll accept your numbers.

My first thought is, given your reference back to Dirk, that Dirk was a guy in his prime scoring more like 35 points per 100 possessions, so let's keep that in perspective a bit. If Dirk cut back his volume to by 30%, it's safe to say that his efficiency could truly become astronomical.
...

But I'll agree that being around 5% above league efficiency is definitely being efficient....

I don't think the idea that a major volume scorer (above 25 shots/game) who cuts his volume to around 20 shots/game (Schayes, with his foul draw, took that many) raises his efficiency considerably is anywhere close to a proven fact or a given. Wilt, yes. Most of the other examples I can think of (McAdoo, Maravich, Archibald, etc.) didn't increase and some decreased as the teams stopped setting up the offense around them as much.

Can someone run the numbers that has historical stats in a searchable format?

Well first, I have to take issue: The numbers where were 35 points per 100 possessions compared to 25. That's a considerably bigger drop than the one you quoted.

And as far as a historical example, consider that Artis Gilmore basically didn't see his points per 100 possessions drop much at all when he went into hyper-efficiency mode, and he was still scoring 25 points per 100 possessions with that efficiency.

So, yeah, I think a sharp shooter like Dirk could do things like that and perhaps more.

And also, consider for a second that that means that Gilmore was scoring at a comparable rate to prime Schayes AFTER he went into super-sparse shooting and had an efficiency vastly higher than Schayes no matter what relative scale you look at.

I understand things have changed, and I"m drawing comparisons and analogies that can be rebutted with some good pro-Dolph points, but again and again, when I consider Schayes my hair gets blown back and I think, "Um, I have no idea how I would try to convince a GM to draft this guy as a future star."

[penbeast0]

I'm not worried about Schayes, I just see this meme all the time . . . a guy scoring 15-20ppg will be considerably less efficient scoring 25-30; a guy scoring 25-30 will be considerably more efficient scoring 15-20 and it doesnt seem obvious to me. IT may be true, but I would like some backup before I accept it as a probability.

[Texas Chuck]

I'm not worried about Schayes, I just see this meme all the time . . . a guy scoring 15-20ppg will be considerably less efficient scoring 25-30; a guy scoring 25-30 will be considerably more efficient scoring 15-20 and it doesnt seem obvious to me. IT may be true, but I would like some backup before I accept it as a probability.

Thanks for bringing this up. I have long felt the same way. I feel slightly more comfortable with the thought that its hard to scale up volume and maintain efficiency, but I don't really understand how scaling back volume for most players would necessarily make them more efficient.

Obviously there is a guy like Kobe who we can all imagine taking 4 or 5 less tough shots a game and thus improving his efficiency as his volume drops. But guys like Durant, Lebron, Dirk don't figure to me to get more efficient by taking less shots, they just lose volume.