Anthony Davis among the great 21-year-olds?

[Jim Naismith]

Anthony Davis is 21 years old this season (2014-15).

Will he have a better season than any of the following 21-year-old players?

Shaq 1994
29.3 ppg, 13.2 rpg, 2.9 bpg, 28.5 PER

LeBron 2006
31.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 6.6 apg, 28.1 PER

Durant 2010
30.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 26.2 PER

Jordan 1985
28.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 5.9 apg, 25.8 PER

[PCProductions]

If he actually nets a Tim Duncan level defensive impact with the stats he put up last year, it might very well be the best of the bunch. However, that's a tall task. He'll definitely be better than Durant 2010, I think.

[SideshowBob]

I would throw 98 Duncan in there as well. I think Duncan, Jordan, and James are all on a similar level at around +5, though I'd take them in that order (preference for Duncan as he's already more of a balanced two-way guy than the rest would ever be). Shaq's right there as well (+4.5), and I've got Durant a step lower. I'm excited about Davis here, because he looks like he's going to be in the realm of the first 4, which obviously bodes really well for how his career plays out.

EDIT: Actually I think 2000 Kobe fits in here as well, somewhere in the middle of the pack.

[Jim Naismith]

If he actually nets a Tim Duncan level defensive impact with the stats he put up last year, it might very well be the best of the bunch. However, that's a tall task. He'll definitely be better than Durant 2010, I think.

In 2010, Durant finished second in MVP voting. Durant was a 30 / 7 guy that year, so he's no pushover.

[JimmyTD3]

Anthony Davis is 21-years old this season (2014-15).

Will he have a better season than any of the following 21-year-old players?

Shaq 1994
29.3 ppg, 13.2 rpg, 2.9 bpg, 28.5 PER

LeBron 2006
31.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 6.6 apg, 28.1 PER

Durant 2010
30.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 26.2 PER

Jordan 1985
28.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 5.9 apg, 25.8 PER

It will be VERY impressive if he has a better season than any of these guys. I mean, look at 21 year old shaq, those numbers are ludicrous. If he puts up 29/13/3 (which could very well mean he leads the league in scoring and rebounding) he will win the MVP running away

[RayBan-Sematra]

Shaq's 1994 regular-season is really underrated.

Rarely gets talked about. He was an absolute BEAST that year.
Those lines... those fieldgoal percentages...



Even more impressive might be the fact that he had two games where he went 12/12 from the line.

[NinjaSheppard]

I would throw 98 Duncan in there as well. I think Duncan, Jordan, and James are all on a similar level at around +5, though I'd take them in that order (preference for Duncan as he's already more of a balanced two-way guy than the rest would ever be). Shaq's right there as well (+4.5), and I've got Durant a step lower. I'm excited about Davis here, because he looks like he's going to be in the realm of the first 4, which obviously bodes really well for how his career plays out.

EDIT: Actually I think 2000 Kobe fits in here as well, somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Would you mind elaborating on why you have Shaq the lowest of the 4?

[GYK]

If defensive impact was accounted for he certainly could be. Scoring will be hardest task. I really hope the Pelicans coaching staff see the FIBA style play that would put their team over the hump. Two small shooting playmakers, three and major defense wing, energy big and Davis.
Green from GSW is the guy for Davis.

[blazersfan52]

Even more impressive might be the fact that he had two games where he went 12/12 from the line.

Really?!?!?

[SideshowBob]

I would throw 98 Duncan in there as well. I think Duncan, Jordan, and James are all on a similar level at around +5, though I'd take them in that order (preference for Duncan as he's already more of a balanced two-way guy than the rest would ever be). Shaq's right there as well (+4.5), and I've got Durant a step lower. I'm excited about Davis here, because he looks like he's going to be in the realm of the first 4, which obviously bodes really well for how his career plays out.

EDIT: Actually I think 2000 Kobe fits in here as well, somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Would you mind elaborating on why you have Shaq the lowest of the 4?

Sure, but again, these aren't large enough increments for it to really be considered a gap. I see these guys as all on the same plane, just have a preference between them. On my most recent set of evaluations, I've got them as:

Duncan +2.25 Offense, +3.00 Defense
Jordan +4.75 Offense, +0.50 Defense
James +4.25 Offense, +0.50 Defense
Shaq +3.75 Offense, +0.75 Defense

Pretty straightforward. James and Shaq I see as similar offensively. Shaq clearly puts far more pressure on the basket, is pretty mobile/agile for a dude his size, can run the floor and is already adept at reading/beating the double teams. James puts immense pressure on the rim as well with his elite slashing/finishing ability for a wing, but obviously not the kind you get from someone like Shaq. He's obviously far more adept on the perimeter though, and at this point, can create from anywhere, though his jumper is still below average (though he's hitting the 3 at a decent clip at this point in his career), and he's got the vision and IQ to basically run a PnR centric offense, beyond just the basic drive-and-kick game. His shooting regresses in the next two seasons; his overall offense is clearly down in 2007. I do think he's got an advantage offensively over Shaq. Shaq has a defensive advantage with rim protection and rebounding, but there's a clear gulf IMO between what he's able to provide in 94 and what he goes on to do at his peak (namely even better defensive rebounding presence and PnR defense. James is solid for a wing, his man-defense is picking up and he's learning how to use his size to be disruptive on the perimeter and the interior. Same story with him though, there's a clear gap between his defense in 06 and what it would be from 09-13, but both guys are still a good positive on that end IMO. FWIW though, Shaq has a solid jump in 95, which I'd take over all of these years as well as all of the 22 year old years of these guys, bar Duncan.

Jordan's offensive game is already pretty refined coming in, he's a GOAT level rookie overall IMO. He's giving you almost everything James gives you, with the addition of a refined game to compliment the slashing/creation. He's fiddling with the post already, is a craftier finisher at and around the basket, and is leagues ahead in shooting, off the dribble and off the ball. Defensively he's got aggression; he's even more disruptive in the passing lanes than James is and he's got a better motor at this point, though he lacks James size. He just looks a little bit better overall to me than the other two.

Duncan comes into the league closest to his eventual peak. He's already got the lateral mobility/coverage, shot-blocking, and post-coverage to be a nightmare for opposing offenses. I think he ramps it up just a little bit more on the defensive end in 99 and sustains that level through 03/04ish. On offense, same story, he's already pretty close to his peak. He's got the low-post creation and finishing, knows how to cater to the offensive system and can even provide some range. I think later on he refines his inside creation a bit with experience and improves the shooting, but this isn't far off from what we see in the early 2000s.

Looking forward to how Davis is going to shape up next to these guys. He's going to obviously break down most similarly to Duncan.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Duncan +2.25 Offense, +3.00 Defense
Jordan +4.75 Offense, +0.50 Defense
James +4.25 Offense, +0.50 Defense
Shaq +3.75 Offense, +0.75 Defense

I think you've underrated Shaq's defense.

His BBIQ on that end when he first entered the league needed some work but his effort level was there so he was immediately one of the best defenders in the league.
Looking at rim protection & man defense he is right there with Duncan.
He was also pretty solid at stepping out on the perimeter back then due to his great motor.

He might not have been on Duncan's level defensively because Duncan had a higher IQ on that end and was the superior team defender but I wouldn't have them that far apart.
Probably put O'neal around +2.0 on that end.

Pretty straightforward. James and Shaq I see as similar offensively.

Shaq scares me much more as a scorer. He was more efficient and consistent.
Shaq could just physically power his way to the basket at that point anytime he wanted and he also started to display some nice finesse moves.
Lebron created more raw assists but Shaq's ability to consistently collapse defenses down in the paint ontop of his ability to directly create makes him just as valuable to his teammates imo.

I like Shaq better as an offensive anchor.
Jordan might be better though. Need to think that one over.

is pretty mobile/agile for a dude his size

That is a massive understatement.
Shaq in 93/94 was pretty much Cleveland Lebron in a 7'1 frame.
That isn't even hyperbole. He was a truly ridiculous athlete. Alienish.

[SideshowBob]

I think you've underrated Shaq's defense.

His BBIQ on that end when he first entered the league needed some work but his effort level was there so he was immediately one of the best defenders in the league.
Looking at rim protection & man defense he is right there with Duncan.
He was also pretty solid at stepping out on the perimeter back then due to his great motor.

Man defense, yeah I'd agree. Rim-protection, I like Duncan's instincts better.

He might not have been on Duncan's level defensively because Duncan had a higher IQ on that end and was the superior team defender but I wouldn't have them that far apart.
Probably put O'neal around +2.0 on that end.

But this is a large part of what creates such a gap between the two! To just brush that off makes no sense.

Shaq scares me much more as a scorer. He was more efficient and consistent.

I agree.

Shaq could just physically power his way to the basket at that point anytime he wanted and he also started to display some nice finesse moves.
Lebron created more raw assists but Shaq's ability to consistently collapse defenses down in the paint ontop of his ability to directly create makes him just as valuable to his teammates imo.

Huh. This is largely what James slashing ability is resulting in, only he's also better at creating for himself and teammates on the perimeter. Let me be clear, I'm concerned with how these guys pressure/warp defenses and how they are able to take advantage of this pressure. Shaq has less ways to do so IMO, just because of the nature of the interior vs. perimeter offensive game, but he's MORE adept at doing so. Lebron has more ways to do so, but he applies slightly less pressure with his primary method (attack the basket), and is better and more capable of taking advantage than Shaq is, again, by nature of him being able to control the ball and by nature of his instincts being more suited to create on the perimeter. IMO this outweighs Shaq's clear advantage in actually applying more pressure.

is pretty mobile/agile for a dude his size

That is a massive understatement.

Not massive, but yes an understatement. He was freakish, he was capable of effectively running the floor and his mobility was ridiculous for such a huge dude.

Shaq in 93/94 was pretty much Cleveland Lebron in a 7'1 frame.
That isn't even hyperbole. He was a truly ridiculous athlete. Alienish.

No this is an absolute hyperbole. He'd be a literal alien if that were true.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Man defense, yeah I'd agree. Rim-protection, I like Duncan's instincts better.

Fair enough.

But this is a large part of what creates such a gap between the two! To just brush that off makes no sense.

I don't brush it off I just don't think it creates such a huge gap between the two.
Shaquille had a decent IQ on that end when he entered the league and was infact lauded for his defensive ability during his college tenure.
Duncan just happened to have a really, really high IQ on that end which few bigs could match.
He also had Robinson as a tutor which probably helped.

No this is an absolute hyperbole. He'd be a literal alien if that were true.

Ok it might be hyperbole but not extreme hyperbole. Shaq really was crazy athletic back then.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DSN1KnAW-Y[/youtube]